Copper price lost the positive momentum yesterday by stochastic stability below 80 level, which forces it to provide weak sideways trading by its fluctuation near $5.5000 level, without recording any new positive target.

Note that the price activated the attempts of gathering the gains by the continuation of facing negative pressures, which forces it to press on the support near $5.3200, and breaking it will force the price to decline towards $5.1500 and $4.9800, while renewing the bullish attempts requires forming a strong bullish rally, to settle above $5.600.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.1500 and $5.600

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price lost the positive momentum yesterday by stochastic stability below 80 level, which forces it to provide weak sideways trading by its fluctuation near $5.5000 level, without recording any new positive target.

Note that the price activated the attempts of gathering the gains by the continuation of facing negative pressures, which forces it to press on the support near $5.3200, and breaking it will force the price to decline towards $5.1500 and $4.9800, while renewing the bullish attempts requires forming a strong bullish rally, to settle above $5.600.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.1500 and $5.600

Trend forecast: Bearish

July 16, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Forecast: Towards 1.1365 “Over Coming Quarters”

British Pound Sterling rallies have continued to attract selling interest with the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) sliding to fresh 3-month lows at 1.1500.

ING commented; “Our forecast preference had been for EUR/GBP to grind towards 0.88 over the coming quarters. (1.1365 for GBP/EUR)

It added; “That could come a lot sooner if the labour market weakens.”

Scotiabank commented; “The outlook for relative central bank policy is weighing on the pound as market participants consider dovish comments from BoE Gov. Bailey, with a specific focus on the labor market and the potential response to a greater than expected deterioration.”

It also noted an underlying market shift; “The options market reveals a continued erosion in sentiment as markets price greater premiums for protection against GBP weakness.”

In contrast, there was another positive German data release which helped support the Euro.

The Pound has been boosted by high yields, but if investors suddenly attempt to rush for the exit, the Pound could be subjected to significant selling.

As far as data is concerned, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that like-for-like retail sales increased 2.7% in the year to June from 0.6% previously and above consensus forecasts of 1.2%.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson commented; “Retail sales heated up in June, with both food and non-food performing well.”

ING notes that there are significant underlying concerns surrounding the UK fiscal outlook, but the bank considers that monetary policy has been the key driver for recent losses.

The bank added; “the two-year EUR:GBP swap differential has narrowed back into 157bp as investors question whether the Bank of England will have to ease policy faster than once per quarter.”

In this context, the UK economic data will have an important impact over the next few days.

Inflation data will be released on Wednesday with consensus forecasts for the headline and core inflation rates to remain at 3.4% and 3.5% respectively.

On Thursday, the latest labour-market data is due. The number of people on payrolls will be a key area with markets also monitoring wages data.

Markets expect a slowdown in annual earnings growth to 5.0% from 5.3%.

The reaction to data will be driven to a significant extent by comments from Bank of England Governor Bailey later Tuesday at his Mansion House speech.

Bailey suggested over the weekend that there could be scope for a faster rate of interest rate cuts if there is evidence of notable labour-market deterioration.

If Bailey repeat these comments, there will potentially be a bigger reaction to weak labour-market data.

According to ING; “Should the May payroll release of -109k stay unrevised and should there be further payroll declines in June, UK rates and sterling could see another leg lower.”

The German ZEW economic sentiment index strengthened to 52.7 for July from 47.5 previously and above consensus forecasts of 50.8 and the strongest reading since February 2022.

There was also a stronger-than-expected improvement in the current conditions index to the highest level since June 2023. The data boost will provide net Euro support.

On Tuesday, the French government will announce measures to cut the 2026 budget deficit to 4.6% from 5.4%.

Danske Bank commented; “This is government’s current target, but the budget for 2026 is likely to slip. This could lead to another vote-of-confidence of the French government.”

A no-confidence vote would hamper the Euro.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

• GBP/USD trades slightly below 1.3400 in the European session on Wednesday.
• Annual CPI inflation in the UK rose to 3.6% in June.
• The near-term technical outlook points to oversold conditions for the pair.

Following a short-lasting recovery attempt in the early European session on Wednesday, GBP/USD struggles to hold its ground and trades below 1.3400. The near-term technical picture highlights oversold conditions for the pair.

The data published by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed earlier in the day that the annual inflation in the UK, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May. This reading came in above the market expectation of 3.4%. In the same period, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.7%, compared to the 3.5% increase recorded previously. With the immediate reaction, GBP/USD edged higher but failed to gather momentum.

The risk-averse market environment and the broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength following the June inflation readings from the US make it difficult for GBP/USD to attract buyers on Wednesday.

After the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% on a yearly basis in June, up from 2.4% in May, the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points in September declined toward 50% from nearly 70% in the previous week, as per CME FedWatch Tool.

In the second half of the day, June Producer Price Index and Industrial Production data will be featured in the US economic calendar. Additionally, several Fed policymakers will be delivering speeches. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade marginally lower on the day after losing about 0.5% earlier in the European session. In case Wall Street’s main indexes gain traction after the opening bell and reflect an improving risk mood, the USD could lose its strength and allow GBP/USD to limit its losses.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 30, pointing to oversold conditions for the pair.

In case the pair rises above 1.3400 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend) and stabilizes there, the technical correction could extend toward 1.3440 (20-period Simple Moving Average) and 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).

If 1.3400 is confirmed as resistance, investors could ignore oversold conditions in the near term. In this scenario, 1.3300 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 1.3270 (100-day Simple Moving Average) could be seen as next support levels.

• The USD/JPY forecast shows a decline in expectations for Fed rate cuts.

• The annual US CPI accelerated from 2.4% to 2.7%.

• Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Japan.

The USD/JPY forecast indicates a decline in Fed rate cut expectations, which has dashed hopes of a narrowing rate gap between the US and Japan. As a result, US Treasury yields soared while the yen collapsed to fresh lows. At the same time, market participants are worried about a likely 25% tariff on Japanese exports to the US. 

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Initially, market participants were optimistic about the yen. The Fed and the Bank of Japan were following different monetary paths that would lead to a smaller gap in rates between Japan and the US. The Fed was looking to lower borrowing costs while the BoJ was hiking. 

However, all this paused when Trump started his aggressive tariffs campaign. The BoJ paused to assess the impact on Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, the Fed delayed cuts due to concerns about a potential spike in inflation. 

Data on Tuesday confirmed some of the Fed’s fears about tariffs boosting inflation. The annual headline CPI accelerated from 2.4% to 2.7%. At the same time, the monthly figure jumped from 0.1% to 0.3%. The data led to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. 

At the same time, Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Japan. Such a move would pause the BoJ’s rate hike campaign.

USD/JPY key events today

USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls approaching the 150.00 level 

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has reached a new high above the key 148.02 resistance level. This has solidified the bullish bias. The price now trades well above the 30-SMA, showing bulls have a strong lead. At the same time, the RSI trades in the overbought region, indicating solid momentum. 

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The price has maintained a bullish trend since it broke above the 30-SMA. It has made a series of higher highs and lows, respecting the SMA as support. Given the strong bullish bias, the uptrend is likely to continue. However, after making a solid swing, bulls might need to pause before reaching new highs. 

Therefore, the price might pull back to retest the 148.02 level as support. If it holds firm, the next target will be at the 150.00 key psychological level.

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• The euro fell significantly during the trading session on Tuesday after initially trying to rally, as the Consumer Price Index in the United States came out at 0.2% month over month, and instead of the expected 0.3%.
• Because of this, it suggests that the Federal Reserve is further away from cutting rates than most traders had dreamed of, which quite frankly has been a bit frustrating as it looks a whole lot like the trading public is just now starting to see the reality of the situation.

Trend Remains

Despite the fact that I think the US dollar is oversold, especially considering that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in the short term, the reality is that the trend is still to sell the US dollar. That has not changed during the trading session on Tuesday, despite the fact that the Euro has plunged toward a crucial support level.

That support level, the 1.16 level, has a certain amount of market memory priced into it due to the fact that it was previous resistance, so I do think this is an area that could cause a bit of a bounce. Even if we were to fall from here, the 1.15 level is even more important, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but also features the 50 Day EMA, which of course a lot of people will be watching for potential dynamic support.

If we were to turn around and bounce from the 1.16 level, which is where we are as I write this, we could make a bit of a move toward the 1.17 level, possibly even the 1.18 level. However, I think it’s going to take a lot for the euro to continue higher without some type of conflicting information. The euro has been overdone for a while, so I think you’ve got a situation where this might just be the excuse that the market needed to sell and start taking some of the gains that they have enjoyed over the last couple of months.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

July 15, 2025 – Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Rate Today: GBP/USD Sub 1.34 After Mixed US Inflation

Looking ahead, the focus for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) now turns to the release of the UK’s own CPI figures on Wednesday.

Economists predict inflation will have held at 3.4% last month. While this remains above the BoE’s target range, unless the figures deviate significantly from forecasts, their impact on the GBP/USD may be limited amid the BoE’s focus on the UK jobs market.

On the US side, the producer price figures for June could offer support to the US Dollar if they show rising input costs, which typically feed through to consumer prices in the months ahead.

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound‑to‑Dollar (GBP/USD) pair remained largely unchanged on Tuesday, hovering just below Monday’s three‑week low.

At the time of writing, it was trading near $1.3438. Almost unchanged from the start of Tuesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) showed limited movement on Tuesday as traders absorbed the latest US consumer price index report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

US headline inflation rose from 2.4% to 2.7% in June, matching expectations and marking the highest reading since February.

In contrast, core inflation came in at 2.9%, slightly below consensus forecasts that it would reach 3%,

The slightly weaker-than-expected core inflation figures applied some pressure to the US dollar, as they are likely to be welcomed by the more dovish members of the Federal Reserve, and cement bets for a September interest rate cut.

Despite this, the USD selling pressure remained very modest in scope, with the unpredictability surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy continuing to cloud the US inflation outlook.

The Pound (GBP) remained mostly range‑bound on Tuesday as investors took a cautious stance ahead of key UK economic releases later in the week.

Attention has now shifted to Thursday’s UK jobs report, following recent commentary from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, who warned persistent labour-market weakness could warrant faster rate cuts.

Moreover, uncertainty surrounding UK fiscal policy, including speculation over autumn tax changes following the government’s reversal of welfare reforms, continues to weigh on Pound sentiment.

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Coffee price suffered strong positive pressures by forming a new support base at 275.85 level might prevent it changing the bullish track besides stochastic rally above 50 level, forming several bullish waves, surpassing the resistance at 297.70 to settle again within the bullish channel’s levels as appear in the above image.

We will depend on forming an important support at 50%Fibonacci correction level by its stability near 292.90, reinforcing the chances for recovering the previous losses by targeting 312.20 level, reaching the next barrier at 326.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 292.50 and 312.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair continued to provide mixed trading within the bullish channel’s levels, approaching from the correctional target at 197.85, affected by stochastic negativity that fluctuates below 50 level as appears in the above image.

Reminding you that the bullish scenario will remain valid unless the price settles above the extra barrier at 198.80, increasing the chances for reaching 197.85 and 197.40, while the price success to breach the barrier will open the way towards recording several gains that might begin at 199.60 and 200.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 197.85 and 199.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

July 15, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Pound Sterling Forecast: Possible “Break Through 0.8670”

Foreign exchange analysts warn that this week’s data could drive further gains in the Euro to Pound exchange rate, with a potential break above 0.8670 paving the way for a test of April’s high near 0.8735.

Pound Sterling (GBP) was subjected to renewed pressure against the Euro (EUR) late last week and, on Monday, was unable to take advantage of President Trump’s threat to impose 30% tariffs on the EU.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) dipped to 3-month lows close to 1.1530 before a marginal recovery.

According to ING there is GBP/EUR resistance close to 1.1630.

It noted; “This week’s data could see EUR/GBP break through 0.8670 resistance in a move to challenge April’s spike high at 0.8735. (A break below 1.1530 for GBP/EUR would potentially lead to 1.1450).

MUFG maintains a GBP/EUR target of 1.1300.

The UK Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG survey stated that their index of staff availability rose to 66.1 from 63.3 in May, the highest reading since November 2020.only the 2008/09 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic resulted in higher readings.

KPMG chief executive Jon Holt commented; “Ongoing geopolitical turbulence and the threat of rising costs, alongside the promise of technology efficiencies, mean companies continue to wait and see with their hiring.”

The latest UK labour-market survey will be released on Thursday.

ING commented; “In May, payrolled employees fell by quite a large 109k. Most expect this number to be revised up.”

It added; “If not, perhaps the UK labour market is in a weaker position after all, and the Bank of England (BoE) will have to cut rates more quickly.”

In comments over the weekend, BoE Governor Bailey commented; “I think the path [for interest rates] is down. I really do believe the path is downward.”

He added; “But we continue to use the words ‘gradual and careful’ because some people say to me ‘why are you cutting when inflation’s above target?”‘

Bailey did, however, note that there could be scope for a faster pace of interest rates if there is evidence of faster labour-market deterioration.

Over the weekend, President Trump stated that 30% tariffs would be imposed on the EU from August 1st.

The EU has adopted a controlled response at this stage and will not adopt counter measures until after August 1st.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Carol Kong commented; “It seems like financial markets have become insensitive to President Trump’s tariff threats now, after so many of them in the past few months.”

She added; “Judging by the limited market reaction, markets might think that the latest threat from Trump is actually a manoeuvre to extract more concessions.”

According to Rabobank; “it’s Trump’s negotiating style to put more pressure on the other side in the final stages before a deal is reached. And, as one official put it, Trump will never go through with this.”

ING noted the high degree of uncertainty; “We have given up speculating about any longer-term strategies in these trade negotiations. What the letters of the last days, and in particular the letters to the EU and Mexico, show is that we are nearing a make-it-or-break-it moment.”

Assuming there is no extension of the August 1st deadline, ING considers that the US pressure could lead to tangible results or the US Administration decides to scale back the tariff threat which would be positive outcomes.

It does consider a third option would be an all-out trade war which would inevitably destabilise economies and damage risk conditions.

Given that the KPMG survey noted that geo-political stresses were important in curbing recruitment, there will be further concerns that the trade uncertainty will damage the UK labour market and economy.

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