• GBP/USD continues to move sideways near 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday.
• Markets turn cautious while assessing the US trade policy.
• The technical outlook suggests that bearish bias remains intact but lacks momentum.

Following Wednesday’s indecisive action, GBP/USD stays relatively quiet in the European session on Thursday and continues to fluctuate at around 1.3600. Pound Sterling could have a hard time attracting buyers unless the risk mood improves in a noticeable way.

US President Donald Trump reiterated his threat of imposing an additional 10% tariff on any country that aligns with the BRICS group on Wednesday. Trump also shared a new set of tariff letters, unveiling rates on imports from some minor trading partners, such as Libya, Algeria and Philippines.

Investors remain cautious and stay away from risk-sensitive assets as they struggle to assess the US economic and inflation outlook, given the lack of clarity on the US’ trade relations with major trading partners. After Wall Street’s main indexes registered moderate gains midweek, US stock index futures stay in negative territory on Thursday. A bearish action in major equity indexes in the US could allow the US Dollar (USD) to benefit from safe-haven flows and weigh on GBP/USD.

The US economic calendar will feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which is forecast to show that there were 235,000 first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending July 5. The market reaction to this data is likely to be straightforward and remain short-lived. A noticeable decline could help the USD hold its ground, while a significant increase could hurt the currency.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 50 after recovering from below-40 earlier in the week, suggesting that the bearish bias remains intact in the short term but lacks momentum.

The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart stays as a pivot level at 1.3600. In case GBP/USD stays below this level and confirms it as resistance, 1.3570 (200-period SMA) could be seen as the next support level before 1.3540 (lower limit of the ascending channel, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend) and 1.3500 (static level, round level).

Looking north, resistance levels could be seen at 1.3630 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement), 1.3650 (50-period SMA) and 1.3700 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied during the trading session here on Thursday in the early hours. But really, at this point in time, we have the same problem. It’s the 0.6550 area offering a ton of resistance. Ultimately, I think this is a scenario where traders continue to see a lot of back and forth choppy behavior and I don’t see why that would change anytime soon. After all, we’ve been grinding higher, and grinding is probably the best word here for the market in what it’s been doing over the last couple of months. I believe you have a scenario where eventually we may try to break above the 0.66 level, but I’m not in a rush to get into this pair, mainly due to the fact that it just hasn’t been very dynamic.

It’s just been a grind back and forth. You basically have a slight tilt in a channel, but no momentum whatsoever. So quite frankly, there’s easier ways to short the US dollar. If we were to turn around and break down below the 50 day EMA, then that would be, for me at least, the same as breaking below a trend line and it could send the US dollar stronger against the Australian dollar making this pair drop towards the 200 day EMA possibly even lower.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The GBPJPY pair reached 199.85 level in its last bullish rally, which forced it to form a bearish correctional rebound, to fluctuate below 66.8%Fibonacci correction level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought level, forcing it to delay the positivity temporarily currently.

The main stability within the bullish channel’s levels in the above image makes us wait to gather the positive momentum, to expect the trading confinement between the current trading at 198.00 level, forming extra support while forming bullish waves might assist reaching 199.45 and 200.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.30 and 199.45

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

• During the trading session on Wednesday, we see the US dollar rally against the Japanese yen to reach toward the ¥147 level, but it has turned back around to show signs of hesitation.
• This is not a huge surprise, considering that the market has been in a range for what seemed like a lifetime, and we are getting close to the top of it.

Interest Rate Differential

I believe that the interest rate differential will eventually propel the US dollar higher against Japanese yen, especially considering the fact that the Japanese bond market is a bit of a disaster at the moment. The Bank of Japan may have to step in and start buying bonds, which is essentially the same thing as quantitative easing, so that could really play havoc on the Japanese yen. That being said, they have not done it yet, so there is a little bit of hesitation and there are a lot of questions asked of whether or not they would actually do it. Or, you also have to keep in mind that we are in a downtrend to get this is area, and typically speaking, consolidation leads to continuation. However, the fundamentals don’t necessarily scream that we should be selling off.

When we do pull back, I’ll be looking for buying opportunities underneath current levels, such as the ¥145 region, followed by the ¥142 region. Ultimately, I think it’s only a matter of time before we see value hunters coming back into the market, but if we were to break above the ¥148 level, then we snap through the 200 Day EMA, which of course would be very bullish to say the least. If that were to happen, then I would anticipate that we have a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of market. Ultimately, I think we do see a lot of volatility, but I’ll be looking to buy the dip here as we should continue to go back and forth in this range in the short term, before finally breaking out and making a bigger move.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

What drives the euro to pound pair?

The EUR/GBP rate is influenced primarily by central bank policies, economic data, political stability, and external market trends. Understanding these factors can help traders anticipate potential movements in the pair.

Interest rate differentials

Monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) can significantly affect EUR/GBP movements. If the ECB signals a more hawkish stance or tightens policy relative to the BoE, capital flows may favour euro-denominated assets, potentially strengthening the euro against the pound. 

Conversely, if UK rates are higher, sterling may find support as investors seek greater returns. Traders closely monitor GDP growth, CPI inflation, employment data, purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), and wage growth, as these indicators influence central bank actions and market expectations.

Economic fundamentals

Economic indicators such as GDP growth rates, inflation figures (CPI), and trade balances directly affect EUR/GBP. Stronger-than-expected eurozone data can enhance the appeal of the euro, while resilient UK data may support the pound. 

For instance, if eurozone growth or inflation outpaces expectations, markets may anticipate tighter ECB policy, underpinning the euro and pushing EUR/GBP higher. Similarly, positive surprises in UK data could lend support to sterling, resulting in a lower EUR/GBP rate.

Geopolitical conditions

Government policies and political stability indirectly influence EUR/GBP. Pro-business policies, trade agreements, and stable governance typically increase currency confidence. Political uncertainty or abrupt policy shifts, however, can trigger volatility. The UK has signed trade agreements with several major economies in recent years, though a comprehensive deal with the US has not yet been concluded. 

Ongoing discussions and agreements with the eurozone and India have contributed to market sentiment, but traders remain vigilant to political developments.

External market trends

Stock market performance and global risk sentiment also influence EUR/GBP exchange rates. In periods of market optimism, investors may favour higher-yielding or riskier assets, which could benefit the pound if UK assets are attractive. 

In contrast, during bouts of risk aversion, flows may move into perceived safe havens such as the US dollar or Swiss franc, though the euro can also benefit given the size and relative stability of the eurozone. Commodity market swings may have an indirect effect on the pair, particularly where they impact risk sentiment or sectors tied to the UK or eurozone economies.

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July 9, 2025 – Written by James Fuller

STORY LINK Pound to US Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Faces Critical Tests Ahead

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) dipped to 2-week lows at 1.3530 on Tuesday before recovering ground, but failed to hold above 1.3600 and traded just below this level.

Sustained losses below 1.3550 would trigger fresh speculation that the Pound has peaked.

According to UoB; “Downward momentum continues to build, albeit not by much. That said, the likelihood of GBP dropping to 1.3510 is increasing. Overall, only a breach of 1.3680 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.3700 yesterday) would indicate that the current downward bias has faded.”

Scotiabank remains bullish on the GBP/USD outlook, but uneasy over recent moves; “we look to a near-term range defined by 1.3550 support and 1.3650 resistance.”

Longer-term Bank of America is still forecasting GBP/USD will strengthen to 1.41 at the end of 2025.

Markets remain wary over the UK fiscal position. Confidence in the UK bond market remains fragile with the 10-year yield trading above 4.60% which will maintain upward pressure on debt-servicing costs.

If global bond yields continue to increase, there will be further upward pressure on UK debt-servicing with the risk of further bond selling and a doom loop.

According to ING; “We find it difficult to find factors that would bring a halt to the strong upward momentum in 30Y global rates from a structural perspective. The fiscal concerns are broad-based, with also the US and UK worrying investors.”

Scotiabank added; “market participants remain concerned about domestic political developments and ongoing uncertainty related to the fiscal outlook as UK yields hit fresh highs.”

Global turbulence sparked by US tariff policies would pose further risks.

In its latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) the Bank of England warned over damage from global trade wars.

Bank of England Governor Bailey commented; “There has been a notable change in the usual correlation patterns between the dollar and other US assets, including equities and government bond yields.”

He added; “And given these developments, the risk of sharp falls in risky asset prices, abrupt shifts in asset allocation and a more prolonged breakdown in historical correlations remains high, and vulnerabilities in market-based finance could amplify such moves which could impact the availability and cost of credit here in the UK.”

Federal Reserve policy will be a key element, especially with President Trump intensifying his attacks on Chair Powell and calling for his immediate resignation.

At this stage, markets see only around a 5% chance that rates will be cut this month with the chances of a September cut declining to around 65%.

Market pricing could change sharply if political pressure on the Fed escalates and Trump nominates a very dovish candidate to replace Powell.

Standard Chartered did note that any controversial nominations could face a tough Congressional battle; “Any future board nominee has to get through the Senate Finance Committee where Republicans have a one-vote majority.”

It added; “Thom Tillis, a conservative Republican senator on the committee, voted against the fiscal package and will not be running for re-election in 2026. He is unlikely to give a pass to a candidate he considers unqualified.”

MUFG noted that the Fed debate has been damaging; “These developments are all factors that have been undermining investor confidence over recent months.”

The bank does consider that a considerable amount of dollar negatives have now been priced in; “It’s why we are forecasting a far more modest dollar decline in H2 (-2%) than the 10.7% drop in H1.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

July 9, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Fed Changes to Drive EUR/USD Gains Above 1.20

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) dipped to 10-day lows just below 1.1700 on Tuesday before trading just above this level.

Tariff developments will remain a key short-term focus while the issue of Federal Reserve personnel and independence could have huge dollar implications.

UoB sees a significant shift; “The EUR strength from late last month has ended. While there has been no significant increase in downward momentum, the current pullback in EUR could extend to 1.1660.”

On a medium-term view, Danske Bank expects Fed changes will contribute to EUR/USD gains to above 1.20.

The US and EU are continuing trade negotiations with an element of confidence that some form of framework deal will be agreed over the next few days.

The agricultural sector will inevitably be a very contentious element and could trigger a breakdown in negotiations with the US imposing a tariff level.

There would be mixed market implications with damage to the US and Euro-Zone economies.

According to ING; “Tariffs on the EU would mark an important escalation that can also harm the dollar, offsetting the hit on the euro. Anyway, the market’s baseline will probably remain that a EU-US deal should be agreed by the 1 August deadline, and EUR/USD may not drift far from the 1.16-1.18 area unless US data surprise in either direction.”

Uncertainty will still a key market element.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com commented; “The delay in the imposition of new tariffs on some of the U.S.’s major trading partners to August 1 has simultaneously kicked the proverbial can down the road and supported the notion that the loftier tariff rates are a negotiating ploy.”

He added; “As a result, the markets have been left hanging, and waiting for a stronger catalyst to drive the next move.”

Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at the National Australia Bank noted; “The market’s second take on the reciprocal tariff announcements was actually dollar negative on the view that there was as much harm, or more harm, going to be inflicted on the U.S. from these actions as elsewhere.”

He also focussed on uncertainty; “It makes markets reluctant to take a kind of positional view as to how this may play out, given uncertainty still reigns.”

Federal Reserve minutes from the June policy meeting will be released later on Wednesday.

“According to ING; “The consensus expectation is probably that two members, Bowman and Waller, will have flagged their dissent at the meeting before delivering dovish comments to the media a few days later. But if the minutes show a greater dovish front, then the dollar could take a hit as the bar for data to justify a summer cut would be lower.”

Wider Federal Reserve developments could also be a key element for currency markets and the dollar.

President Trump has stepped-up his criticism of Fed Chair Powell and called for him to resign immediately.

There is also evidence that Trump will open up a potential route to get Powell dismissed by accusing him of misleading Congress.

There have also been reports that Administration economic advisor Hassett is a main contender to replace Powell.

Fears over a politicised Fed could cause major dollar damage.

Danske Bank focussed on a potential lack of experience if there are big changes; “the USD historically trades weaker when experience in the Federal Reserve board drops and that will likely happen over the coming year.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

July 9, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Price Flat as Markets Await FOMC

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate was trapped in a narrow range on Wednesday ahead of the release of the US’s latest FOMC minutes.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3582, virtually unchanged from the start of Wednesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) trended lower on Wednesday, coming under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes.

Sentiment towards the ‘Greenback’ soured earlier in the session following the announcement of fresh tariffs by President Donald Trump, which unsettled markets and added to trade policy uncertainty.

With a slight improvement in risk appetite also curbing demand for the safe-haven currency, USD struggled to attract support as investors looked ahead to the FOMC’s upcoming meeting minutes.

The Pound (GBP) found its footing on Wednesday, rebounding from earlier losses despite another quiet day on the UK economic calendar front.

Sterling’s mid-week recovery followed Tuesday’s slide, which was sparked by a downbeat fiscal forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

The UK’s fiscal watchdog projected that UK government debt could climb to 270% of GDP by the 2070s, citing rising borrowing costs and mounting fiscal challenges.

Despite these concerns, the Pound managed to stabilise as markets appeared to take the long-term warning in stride, with broader risk sentiment helping to cushion GBP’s losses.

Looking ahead to Thursday’s European session, movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate will likely hinge on the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, released late on Wednesday.

Markets will be combing through the minutes for fresh insight into the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

If policymakers strike a dovish tone and signal that rate cuts remain on the table, the US Dollar could find renewed support.

Meanwhile, with no UK economic data scheduled for release, the Pound is expected to remain at the mercy of external drivers.

In the absence of domestic catalysts, broader market sentiment will likely continue to guide GBP direction.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• GBP/USD fluctuates at around 1.3600 in the European session on Wednesday.
• Technical sellers could remain interested once 1.3600 is confirmed as resistance.
• An improving risk mood could help the pair limit its losses.

GBP/USD recovered after setting a two-week low and closed virtually unchanged on Tuesday. The pair moves up and down in a narrow band at around 1.3600 midweek, while the technical picture doesn’t offer any signs of a steady recovery.

The uncertainty surrounding the United States’ trade relations and their potential impact on growth and inflation outlook causes markets to cling to a cautious stance. In turn, the US Dollar (USD) finds demand as a safe-haven and stays resilient against its rivals.

US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that the BRICS members will be subject to 10% tariff rate and added that they will be introducing tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors soon. Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that another 15 to 20 tariff letters are expected to be announced in the next two days.

In the second half of the day, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the June policy meeting. Following the upbeat June employment data from the US, the probability of the Fed cutting the policy rate by 25 basis points in July dropped to nearly 5% from about 25%, as per CME FedWatch Tool. Hence, the publication is unlikely to alter market expectations in a significant way.

Investors will continue to pay close attention to the risk perception. After trading flat earlier in the session, US stock index futures turned positive on the day. A bullish opening in Wall Street could hurt the USD and open the door for a rebound in the near term.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart aligns as a pivot level at 1.3600. In case GBP/USD confirms that level as resistance, 1.3570 (200-period SMA) could be seen as the next support level before 1.3540 (lower limit of the ascending channel, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend) and 1.3500 (static level, round level).

On the upside, 1.3630 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) could be seen as the first resistance level ahead of 1.3660 (50-period SMA) and 1.3700 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

• The USD/JPY forecast indicates brief relief for the yen after a steep decline.

• The yen has weakened significantly following Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods.

• Market participants are awaiting the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.

The USD/JPY forecast indicates brief relief for the yen after a steep decline due to tariff concerns. However, the outlook for Japan’s economy has darkened following Trump’s threat of a 25% reciprocal tariff. 

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The yen has weakened significantly this week following Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, effective from August. The move came after trade talks between the US and Japan failed. Market participants are concerned that this could be the start of a trade war between the two partners. Such an outcome would hurt both economies and weaken their currencies. 

However, at the moment, the dollar is rallying at the prospect of higher import costs. These might translate to higher inflation, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates high. 

Furthermore, Trump has threatened a 50% tariff on copper imports that would again ignite tensions with many countries. In the short term, tariffs might be bullish for the dollar. However, in the long run, they might dim the outlook for the US economy and hurt its currency. 

Elsewhere, market participants are awaiting the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The report might contain clues about future policy moves. However, with tariff uncertainty, the outlook might become less clear.

USD/JPY key events today

USD/JPY technical forecast: Rally pauses for breath at the 147.01 level

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has finally paused its steep rally near the 147.01 key level. However, the bullish bias remains strong, with the price well above the 30-SMA and the RSI near the overbought region.

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After such a strong move, bulls have paused for a breath at this level. Therefore, the price might consolidate as the SMA catches up. At the same time, it might pull back to retest the SMA as support. The bullish bias will remain as long as it stays above the SMA. 

After a pause, bulls might regain momentum to break past the 147.01 level for a new high. Such a move would allow USD/JPY to retest the 148.02 key resistance. A break above would solidify the bullish bias.

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