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Copper price took advantage of the positive factors by confirming the obstacle at $4.8900, to notice by the above image, forming a strong bullish rally achieving the main targets by reaching $5.0700 level and settles around it.

By the above image, we notice forming $5.1000 level to previous liquidity grab zones, to form an extra barrier against the bullish trading in the current period, to expect the price affection by the domination of the sideways bias domination temporarily, while the continuation of the fluctuation below this barrier might increase the chance for activating the bearish correctional track, which might target $4.9100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9600 and $5.1000

Trend forecast: Fluctuated with the bullish track

Copper price took advantage of the positive factors by confirming the obstacle at $4.8900, to notice by the above image, forming a strong bullish rally achieving the main targets by reaching $5.0700 level and settles around it.

By the above image, we notice forming $5.1000 level to previous liquidity grab zones, to form an extra barrier against the bullish trading in the current period, to expect the price affection by the domination of the sideways bias domination temporarily, while the continuation of the fluctuation below this barrier might increase the chance for activating the bearish correctional track, which might target $4.9100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9600 and $5.1000

Trend forecast: Fluctuated with the bullish track

Despite the neediness of the GBPJPY pair to the positive momentum, but the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels that pushed it to form a new positive move, to hit the target at 198.80, facing 66.8%Fibonacci correction level as appears in the above image.

The current trading scenario depends on the strength of 198.80 level, if it settles we expect forming bearish correctional trading that might push it to suffer some losses by reaching 197.40 and 169.85, while the price success in achieving the breach and providing a positive close above it, will reinforce the chances for recording extra gains by its rally to 199.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 197.40 and 198.80

Trend forecast: Bearish

June 27, 2025 – Written by James Fuller

STORY LINK Pound to US Dollar Forecast: GBP must hold above 1.3595

The easing of immediate Middle East fears has put the focus firmly back on underlying fundamentals with the dollar sliding amid fresh fears that Fed independence will be compromised.

Following the latest salvo against Fed Chair Powell from President Trump, there has been increased speculation that there will be an early nomination of the next chair and fresh talk that Powell could be dismissed by Trump.

The dollar index has slumped to the lowest level since February 2022 while the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has surged to 44-month highs above 1.3750.

MUFG commented; “Broad-based US dollar weakness helped to lift EUR/USD and cable overnight as they continue to move back closer towards the highs set back in late 2020/early 2021 when they peaked at just above 1.2000 and 1.4000.”

Markets will be looking to attack 1.40 in GBP/USD, although there is tough resistance close to current levels and the dollar is potentially oversold.

ING commented; “Downside risks for the dollar persist, but another 1-2% plunge in DXY will look stretched without any dovish repricing in Fed expectations or tariff/deficit concerns resurfacing.”

UoB noted resistance near 1.3750 and added; “To sustain the buildup in momentum, GBP must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.3595.”

Fed Chair Powell maintained a cautious stance in his second round of testimony to Congress. The rejection of a near-term rate cut has triggered another blast of criticism from President Trump who has again threatened to fire Powell and name a successor quickly.

MUFG noted a Wall Street Journal report that a successor to Powell could be named by September at the latest and potentially next month.

The bank added; “It highlights how an early pick could be used as way to try to undermine the Fed’s policymaking under Chair Powell providing a further potential trigger for a loss of investor confidence in the US dollar.”

There have been reports that Trump is considering former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as potential candidates.

According to MUFG; “Other contenders include former World Bank President David Malpass and Fed governor Christopher Waller.”

The bank summarised; “A candidate who is perceived as being more open to lowering rates in line with President Trump’s demands would reinforce the US dollar’s current weakening trend.”

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore commented; “I think it’s a given that Trump’s pick to succeed Powell, when it comes, will be one that sits at the highly dovish end of the spectrum and will support Trump’s agenda of lowering interest rates.”

He added; “The issue with this is it will resurface questions from earlier in the year around the Fed’s independence, which, as we saw, undermines confidence in the Fed and the USD.”

There has been a shift in market pricing with a rate cut by September now seen as inevitable with markets also seeing the most likely outcome as three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

In contrast, markets are pricing in two Bank of England rate cuts by the end of 2025 which would help underpin the Pound on yield grounds.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• During the trading session on Thursday, we have seen the euro go back and forth against the British pound, as we continue to hang around just above the crucial 0.85 level.
• This is an area that’s been important multiple times on the way up as well as the way down, and as a result I think we’ve got a situation where market memory is coming into play.

I tend to use this pair as a measuring stick, and as a relative strength meter for these 2 currencies. If we get a stronger currency in this pair, typically that currency will do better against the US dollar. This is a great way to triangulate what should be happening in the EUR/USD or GBP/USD pairs, and it’s a trick I use all the time. Ultimately, it comes down to whether or not the US dollar is strong or weak and then picking which one of these 2 currencies are heading in the opposite direction and will give you the most “bang for your buck.” It’s not that both currencies can’t rise against the US dollar, but over the last couple of weeks, you can see that the euro rose against the British pound, and it’s no big surprise that arose against the US dollar simultaneously.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is a bit interesting at the moment, because we broke so much higher than the 50 Day EMA, and now look like we are trying to do everything we can to form some type of bullish flag. Whether or not that holds up remains to be seen, because it is a little bit early to call it that, but if we can break out to the upside, it’s worth noting that the “measured move” of the bullish flag as to the 0.8650 level, an area that’s been important multiple times in the past and I do believe would be resistance. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 0.85 level, we do have the 50 Day EMA sitting just below there to offer even more support.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling surges, Shell banned from attempting BP takeover for six months

GBP/USD extended its rally and touched its highest level since October 2021 above 1.3750 on Thursday. The heavy selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD), on renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve losing its independence, could allow the pair to continue to push higher despite overbought conditions.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Wednesday that United States President Donald Trump was planning to announce his candidate for the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed) early, by September or October, to undermine Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The news outlet claimed that Trump is evaluating Kevin Hassett’s, Director of the National Economic Council, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s commitment to lower interest rates as they are among the names that could potentially replace Powell. Read more…

GBP/USD outlook: Cable keeps firm tone, further gains likely after consolidation

Cable remains steady and holds within a narrow consolidation just below new multi-month high (1.3648), posted on Tuesday, following strong bullish acceleration in past two days.

Revived risk appetite on growing confidence in still fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, continues to underpin near-term action, as markets await more details from Fed Powell’s second day of testimony to Senate Banking committee. Read more…

• The Euro trades lower against the British Pound on Tuesday, snapping a steady winning streak that began earlier in June.
• The cross is edging lower, quoted around 0.8533 during the American trading hours, down about 0.40% on the day.
• RSI has eased from overbought territory and is drifting lower at 59.83, while the MACD remains slightly positive but shows signs of flattening momentum.

The Euro (EUR) is slipping against the Pound today, putting the brakes on a solid run that saw buyers firmly in control for nearly two weeks. The EUR/GBP cross is edging lower, trading around 0.8527 during the American trading hours, down about 0.40% on the day.

Zooming in on the daily chart, the broader trend structure remains constructive despite today’s short pullback. EUR/GBP continues to trace a well-respected rising channel that has guided price action since late January. Within this structure, buyers have consistently stepped in near the lower boundary and the 21-day EMA, which now sits close to 0.8496, cushioning dips.

However, the pair is encountering resistance near the 0.8550 psychological level, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April peak to the May low. This area, overlapping with the channel’s midline, is drawing profit-taking and testing the strength of the recent bullish momentum.

Momentum signals suggest caution in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought levels and is currently at 59.83, implying the recent bullish push may be cooling off. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains in positive territory but hints at flattening momentum, signaling that the rally could stall without fresh catalysts.

A sustained daily close above 0.8600 would validate the bullish case and open the path toward 0.8740 — the April high and channel ceiling. Conversely, if the pullback deepens, the 21-day EMA near 0.8496 provides immediate support, followed by stronger buying interest around the 38.2% Fib at 0.8504 and the lower channel boundary near 0.8400.

• The GBP/USD outlook is extremely bullish after the dollar loses further due to Trump’s criticism of the Fed.
• Iran-Israel ceasefire continues to underpin the global risk sentiment.
• Markets are now eyeing the Q1 GDP and Core PCE Index data from the US.

The British pound extended its bullish momentum for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, pushing the price to a fresh 41-month top near mid-1.3700. The rally stems from improving global risk sentiment and pressure on the US dollar driven by tension in Washington.

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The greenback is experiencing a broader sell-off after President Trump renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve’s independence. Trump labeled Fed Chair Powell as “terrible” after his testimony before Congress, where he reiterated the data dependence and showed no urgency to lower the rates. The US President also hinted at replacing Powell as soon as this summer. The Dollar Index plunged below 97.50 as markets interpreted Trump’s threat as a political intervention with the central bank.

While the US side faces central bank politics and mixed economic data, the British pound shows resilience. Domestic concerns about a cooling labor market and softer inflation hopes are striking at the pound’s strength. A British Chamber of Commerce survey revealed that around one-third of SMEs plan to cut jobs due to rising National Insurance costs. BoE Governor Bailey also pointed out the softening of the labor market during his testimony earlier this week.

Nevertheless, the markets remain primarily focused on US dynamics and broader risk sentiment. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has lifted the risk appetite and shifted capital flows off the US dollar. Traders are now eyeing today’s US Q1 GDP and Friday’s US Core PCE Index report. Softer-than-expected data may increase the odds of a September rate cut, which will further weaken the US dollar.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Bulls Aim for 1.4000

The 4-hour chart of the GBP/USD reveals a strong bullish trend as the price lies well above the key SMAs. The pair broke the resistance at 1.3635 with a strong push towards 1.3750. The price is building the case to test the 1.4000 psychological mark.

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On the other hand, the pair may experience profit-taking as it has overextended, and the RSI indicates an extreme overbought condition near the 80.0 level. The pair may test the resistance-turned-support at 1.3635 before resuming the uptrend.

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• USD/JPY attracts heavy selling and is pressured by a combination of negative factors.
• Concerns over the Fed’s independence weigh on the USD and lift the safe-haven JPY.
• The divergent Fed-BoJ policy expectations contribute to the steep intraday decline.

The USD/JPY pair resumes this week’s sharp retracement slide from the 146.00 mark, or its highest level since May 13, and dives to a one-and-half-week low during the first half of the European session on Thursday. Spot prices slip below the 144.00 mark in the last hour and seem vulnerable to weaken further amid a bearish fundamental backdrop.

US President Donald Trump escalated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates and floated the idea of firing him. Powell, testifying before Congress for the second day on Wednesday, acknowledged that the recent inflation reading had been more moderate, but he warned that new tariffs could change that. Powell reiterated that the central bank is well-positioned to wait to cut interest rates until they have a better handle on the impact of Trump’s trade policies on consumer prices.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that Trump was considering naming Powell’s successor by September or October, stoking concerns over the central bank’s independence. When asked if he is interviewing candidates to replace Powell, Trump said he has three or four people in mind as contenders for the top Fed job. This, along with bets that the US central bank could resume its rate-cutting cycle as soon as July, drags the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since March 2022 and is seen weighing heavily on the USD/JPY pair.

Moreover, traders have fully priced in that the Fed will lower rates by at least 50 basis points before the end of this year. In contrast, the Bank of Japan – although has been hesitant to raise interest rates – is still expected to stay on the path of monetary policy normalization as inflation persistently exceeds its target. Japan’s core inflation has remained well above the BoJ’s 2% target for well over three years and rose to a more than two-year high in May. Furthermore, Japan’s Corporate Services Producer Price Index – a leading indicator of consumer price inflation – has been trending above the 3% YoY rate for several consecutive months.

The divergent Fed-BoJ policy expectations turn out to be another factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair and validate the near-term negative outlook. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the final Q1 GDP print, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Pending Home Sales. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members could provide some impetus to the pair ahead of the Tokyo CPI and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. Nevertheless, the aforementioned factors suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Technical Outlook

The overnight failure ahead of the 146.00 mark and a subsequent break below the 144.70-144.65 area, or the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, validates the negative outlook for the USD/JPY pair. Moreover, oscillators on hourly/daily charts have just started gaining negative traction and back the case for a slide towards intermediate support near the 143.70-143.65 region en route to sub-143.00 levels.

On the flip side, the 200-SMA support breakpoint, around the 144.65-144.70 zone, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 145.00 psychological mark and the 145.25-145.35 static barrier. A sustained strength beyond the latter could allow the USD/JPY pair to make a fresh attempt to conquer the 146.00 mark. The said handle might now act as a pivotal point, which if cleared could shift the near-term bias in favor of bulls and pave the way for additional near-term gains.