• USD/JPY pares some of its intraday losses as the US Dollar strives to gain a temporary ground.
• The US Dollar has remained weak due to multiple headwinds.
• The BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates.

The USD/JPY pair recovers some of its intraday losses but is still trading down near 140.65 during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The asset has demonstrated a sharp downside move in the last two weeks and revisited the 21-month low near 139.60.

The pair has remained weak as back-and-forth tariff announcements by United States (US) President Donald Trump and his tussle with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have dampened the credibility of the US Dollar.

During North American trading hours, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, attracts some bids and rebounds to near 98.50 but is still close to the three-year low of 98.00.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has performed strongly as the global economic uncertainty due to an absence of clarity over Trump’s tariffs has improved its safe-haven appeal.

Additionally, firm expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again this year have also strengthened the Yen. The BoJ is expected to continue supporting interest rate hikes, a report from Reuters indicated. The agency reported that higher risks from higher US tariffs won’t derail a cycle of rising wages and inflation seen as crucial to keep raising interest rates.

USD/JPY trades at a make-or-break point near the psychological level of 140.00. The outlook of the pair is strongly bearish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping downwards, which trades around 144.80.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, indicating a strong downside momentum.

The asset would face more downside towards the 28 July 2023 low of 138.00 and the 14 July 2023 low of 137.25 after sliding below the September 16 low of 139.58.

On the flip side, a recovery move above the April 21 high of 142.15 will drive the asset towards the April 16 high of 143.28, followed by the April 9 low of 144.00.

USD/JPY daily chart

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar is trying to bounce from the 140 yen level, a large, round, psychologically significant figure. And of course, this is a market that is oversold. Whether or not this can continue to the downside remains to be seen. But at this point, I would not be trying to chase the trade to the downside.

As far as buying is concerned, I would like to see the 143 yen level be taken over again by the US dollar before I start getting long. That would at least give me some momentum to follow. We are at a crucial point and an inflection point on the chart, so pay close attention.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the day but has given back those gains right at the 200-day EMA in an overbought condition. So, this is very interesting to me. Maybe we may see this market fall from here. Whether or not that happens, like I said with the other pairs, we just don’t know. But at the end of the day, you have to assume that it is very possible. This is especially true if we start to see problems in China.

After all, the Australian economy is highly levered to the Chinese economy. And that, of course, is something that traders are very cognizant of. If we fall from here, the 50-day EMA is at the 0.6288 level, and that could be a short-term target. If we can break above the 0.6450 level, then it’s likely that the uptrend will continue.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The GBPJPY pair provided several negative closes in its recent trading below the critical resistance at 190.10, to interact with the negativity of the main indicators by attacking 38.2% Fibonacci correction level at 188.00.

Stochastic begin providing negative momentum will increase the chances for confirming breaking 188.00 level, which allows it to form strong bearish waves, to expect reaching 186.50, then attempt to press on the barrier near 186.10, in order to find an exit to resume the negative attack in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 186.50 and 188.70

Trend forecast: Bearish

The GBPJPY pair provided several negative closes in its recent trading below the critical resistance at 190.10, to interact with the negativity of the main indicators by attacking 38.2% Fibonacci correction level at 188.00.

Stochastic begin providing negative momentum will increase the chances for confirming breaking 188.00 level, which allows it to form strong bearish waves, to expect reaching 186.50, then attempt to press on the barrier near 186.10, in order to find an exit to resume the negative attack in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 186.50 and 188.70

Trend forecast: Bearish

April 22, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP, EUR Surge as USD Crashes on Trump-FED Spat

The Pound Sterling has surged to a seven-month best exchange rate level as confidence in the US Dollar has deteriorated further during the Easter weekend.

As well as fears over the economy, Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell has reinforced fears that central bank independence could be compromised and the dollar posted sharp losses to fresh 3-year lows.

In this environment, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) jumped to 7-month highs above 1.3400.

EUR/USD also jumped to 41-month highs above the 1.1550 level while gold hit another record high and US equity futures lost ground.

MUFG commented; “While we think it is unlikely the Trump administration will be able to remove the Fed Chair outright given the lack of legal authority, any moves on this front will likely create an outsized market move including in FX and is something to watch closely for moving forward.”

According to Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management; “One thing that’s absolutely clear — and no longer debatable — is that the reputational hit to the US brand is real, and it’s not fading quietly into the next news cycle.”

He added; “It’s sticking. Investors, allies, and even central banks are starting to bake in the idea that American policymaking, both fiscal and monetary, is now a geopolitical variable — not a given.”

On Friday Trump again attacked Fed Chair Powell and stated that Powell’s termination can’t come quickly enough.

The comments have inevitably stoked criticism on multiple fronts.

Chicago Fed Goolsbee commented on Sunday; “There’s virtual unanimity among economists that monetary independence from political interference — that the Fed or any central bank be able to do the job that it needs to do — is really important.”

According to Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho; “Powell does not report directly to Trump, so (Trump) cannot actually fire him. He can only be removed from office under certain procedures, which one would think have a higher barrier.

He added; “but can the president move the cogs and wheels to undermine the perceived independence of the Fed? Sure, he could.”

Even if Powell is safe in the job, talk of undermining Fed independence is crucial in damaging confidence.

Varathan added; “I would argue that they don’t even need to sack Powell immediately. You just need to create the perception that you could fundamentally change the view of an independent Fed.”

Trade fears have also undermined the dollar amid evidence that China is not backing down and is attempting to recruit countries to its cause.

On Monday, there was tough rhetoric from Beijing.

According to a statement from the Commerce Ministry; “Appeasement will not bring peace, and compromise will not be respected. To seek one’s own temporary selfish interests at the expense of others’ interests is to seek the skin of a tiger.”

It added; “That approach will ultimately fail on both ends and harm others”.

Trump has again complained vigorously about non-tariff barriers including VAT. This focus on areas such as domestic taxation will make it even more difficult to secure trade deals.

According to French Finance Minister Eric Lombard; “Donald Trump has hurt the credibility of the dollar with his aggressive moves on tariffs — for a long time.”

He added; “If Powell is pushed out this credibility will be harmed even more, with developments in the bond market.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

If we break down below there, some traders will look at this as some type of head and shoulders pattern and it could lead for a drop down to 120. If that ends up being the case, I suspect we have some type of financial crisis. So, watch that very closely.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has broken higher against the US dollar, and it is now peaking above the 0.64 level, an area that has been like a brick wall over the last several months. We are just above the 200 day EMA as I record this, so we’ll have to see if we can stay above here because if we can, that’s not a good look for the dollar. Now, having said that, could the Australian dollar rally pretty significantly?

Well, the answer, I guess, would be yes, because the next massive resistance level would be somewhere around 0.68, where it had spent a couple of years. So, despite the fact that this has been such a brutal move to the upside, the reality is that through the prism of a longer-term chart, we would just be heading to an area of somewhat normalcy as far as trading is concerned.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Created on April 21, 2025

• For two consecutive weeks, the GBP/USD currency pair has been trading within an upward channel, culminating in a move towards the $1.3298 resistance level at the end of last week’s trading.
• This was the highest level for the pair in six months, and it closed the week near its highs.
• This raises questions among currency traders about the upward targets for the GBP/USD pair in the coming days.

According to reliable trading platforms, the British Pound is experiencing a sharp rise, having gained 4.5 percent against the US Dollar over the past nine trading days. It faces strong resistance at $1.3430.

Will Sterling’s Gains Increase in the Coming Days?

According to forex market trading. The British pound has achieved a remarkable rise this year, 2025, rising by about 10% since mid-January. Obviously, Sterling’s gains are due to a combination of strong UK economic data and significant US dollar fatigue due to weak sentiment toward the US currency due to Trump’s tariffs and their impact on the US economy and growth prospects.

Also, traders are increasingly betting that the Bank of England may cut interest rates on May 8 to allow the British economy more time to recover. Generally, British inflation is easing, and recession fears are fading. This gives the pound more room to achieve stronger gains unless it is subject to profit-taking and currency traders take new long positions.

Trading Tips:

Closely monitor the factors positively influencing global financial markets and investor sentiment to anticipate the British Pound’s future gains. Remember that it is a risk currency.

Economic Data Affecting GBP/USD:

According to the upcoming economic calendar data, the US Dollar’s performance will be strongly influenced by the Q1 earnings season figures, starting with Tesla’s highly anticipated report on Tuesday. This will be followed by other key earnings updates from tech giant Alphabet, along with Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, Intel, Boeing, Merck, Philip Morris International, IBM, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Comcast, Intuitive Surgical, ServiceNow, Thermo Fisher Scientific, AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, CME Group, Newmont, and Visa. In addition to earnings, investors will be watching speeches from Federal Reserve officials Philip Jefferson, Adriana Kugler, Christopher Waller, Patrick Harker, and Austan Goolsbee. Markets will also monitor potential developments in US tariff policy, including the possible response to Asian protectionism and President Trump’s signals regarding trade deals.

On the economic data front, the US economic calendar will be relatively light. US durable goods orders for March are expected to grow sharply for the third consecutive month, while existing home sales are expected to contract.

GBP trading will be influenced by the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April, which provides an early reading of how business activity and sentiment are responding to recent trade developments. Manufacturing activity is expected to remain contracting in the UK. A slowdown is expected in the services sector. Along with the PMIs, UK retail sales data will be closely watched. After two months of gains, sales are expected to have declined in March.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

The overall trend for the GBP/USD pair remains strongly bullish, and breaking the current $1.3300 resistance will push the bulls towards the next significant resistance at $1.3430, the highest level for the pair since last September. The subsequent upward breakout will be the $1.3600 level. From now until further upward movement, technical indicators confirm their break into overbought territory, as indicated by the RSI, MACD, and Stochastic.

Conversely, over the same timeframe, the initial breakout of the general uptrend requires bears to move towards the 1.3130 support level first. Stabilizing below this level provides an opportunity for bears to move towards the psychological support level of 1.3000, which confirms the downward trend reversal. I still prefer to buy GBP/USD from every downward level, and the closest trading recommendation for GBP/USD is to buy from the 1.3180 support level, with a target of 1.3375 and a stop loss of 1.3100. A sell recommendation for GBP/USD may include the 1.3385 resistance level, with a target of 1.3220 and a stop loss of 1.3470.

The GBP/USD pair is not awaiting significant and influential economic data from either Britain or the United States. Therefore, influential sentiment will be the key factor to consider, as holidays reduce liquidity and traders’ risk appetite.

Ready to trade our daily Forex GBP/USD analysis? We’ve made this UK forex brokers list for you to check out.

Created on April 21, 2025

• Amid strong risk aversion among investors and a flight to the Japanese Yen as a safe haven, selling pressures on the USD/JPY pair have intensified, with losses reaching the $141.60 support level, the lowest for the currency pair in seven months.
• The pair began the new trading week around these losses after failing to rebound upwards last week.

Yen Gains Await Bank of Japan Announcement

According to Forex currency trading experts, the Japanese Yen may stabilize around its strongest gains against other major currencies as investors react to the latest inflation data. Official figures showed that Japan’s headline inflation fell to a four-month low of 3.6% in March, while core inflation rose in line with expectations to 3.2%. Market focus now shifts to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting this week, where the central bank is widely expected to keep Japanese interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

However, policymakers may revise their growth forecasts downwards amid increasing concerns about the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-dependent economy. While the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain a gradual tightening path this year, driven by persistently high food prices and rising wages, the external trade environment continues to cast a shadow of doubt on its monetary stance. Consider that rising inflation comes at a time when Japan is engaged in difficult trade negotiations with the United States and faces new, stringent tariffs. Steel and aluminum exports are already subject to 25% tariffs, and a decision to impose a 25% tariff on car exports took effect earlier this month.

Trading Tips:

The sharp downward movement of the USD/JPY pair will increase the idea of seizing buying opportunities. Monitor the influencing factors on the currency pair to choose the best trading opportunities.

Is Japan Manipulating Currency Exchange Rates?

In this regard, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato told parliament last Friday that Japan is not taking any steps to deliberately weaken the Japanese Yen, rejecting US President Donald Trump’s claims that Tokyo is intentionally devaluing its currency to support exporters. His remarks come ahead of a potential meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bisant in Washington this week during the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings. If this meeting takes place, it will serve as the main forum for Japan and the United States to address currency issues amid broader negotiations on tariffs that began earlier this week. The Japanese minister pointed out that Japan’s latest intervention in the Forex market involved buying the Yen, not selling it, reflecting Tokyo’s commitment to fair market operations.

While the Japanese minister acknowledged the US’s keenness to raise the issue of exchange rates, he declined to speculate on potential talking points, noting that no date has yet been set for the meeting with Bisant.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

According to the performance on the daily chart above, the overall trend for the USD/JPY currency pair remains bearish. Breaking below the $141.60 support level will quickly move the bears towards the psychological support level of $140.00. From now until reaching this psychological level, keep in mind that technical indicators have moved towards strong oversold levels, as observed in the direction of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD, and Stochastic.

Therefore, we still prefer the strategy of buying USD/JPY at every downward level. The most suitable buying recommendation currently is at $140.90 with a target of $144.80 and a stop-loss at $140.00. Currently, the currency pair is not awaiting significant influential economic data today. Therefore, the movement will depend on investors’ risk appetite and expectations for the future policies of global central banks.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

• The EUR/USD outlook indicates further dollar weakness.

• Reports revealed that the US president plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

• The European Central Bank cut rates last week, leaving room for more.

The EUR/USD outlook indicates further dollar weakness after Trump’s threats to fire Fed Chair Powell. Market participants are dumping the greenback and US assets, allowing the euro to climb. Meanwhile, the ECB indicated weaker growth in the Eurozone due to Trump’s tariffs. As a result, traders are pricing more rate cuts in the coming months. 

-Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details-

On Friday, reports revealed that the US president plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Since Trump took office, he has advised the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. However, Powell has remained cautious, waiting to see the impact of recent tariffs on the economy. The Fed Chair has repeatedly said there is no hurry to lower borrowing costs. 

The reports caused more turmoil in markets recovering from wild tariff moves. Moreover, investors lost confidence in the US economy, plunging the dollar. 

Meanwhile, although the euro rallied, the European Central Bank cut rates last week and left room for more. ECB president Christine Lagarde noted that Trump’s tariffs would hurt growth. However, she failed to give clear guidance about the next meeting. Still, market participants expect another rate cut in June. Meanwhile, policymakers may wait to see if Trump’s 20% tariff on the Eurozone takes effect. 

EUR/USD key events today

Traders are not anticipating any key economic releases today. Therefore, they will continue to digest US policy developments.

EUR/USD technical outlook: Uptrend breaks past 1.1502 for a new high

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has rallied and broken above the 1.1502 resistance level. The move has reached a new high, further strengthening the bullish bias. The price now trades well above the 30-SMA, with the RSI in the overbought region. This shows a strong uptrend.

–Are you interested in learning more about British Trade Platform Review? Check our detailed guide-

Bulls took charge when the price crossed above the 30-SMA. They have maintained the price above the SMA, respecting it as a solid support. At the same time, the price has consistently made higher highs and lows, indicating a developed bullish trend. 

However, bulls might pause at the 1.1602 resistance to allow the price to retest the SMA. Still, the bullish bias will remain intact as long as the price trades above the SMA and the RSI above 50. 

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

• GBP/JPY softens to around 188.45 in Monday’s early European session, losing 0.35% on the day. 
• The cross keeps the negative outlook below the 100-day EMA with a bearish RSI indicator. 
• The initial support emerges at 187.47; the first upside barrier is located at 190.00.

The GBP/JPY cross weakens to near 188.45 during the early European session on Monday. The ongoing uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continues to weigh on investors’ sentiment, which boosts safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

According to the daily chart, the bearish outlook of GBP/JPY remains in play as the cross remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The path of least resistance is to the downside, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index standing below the midline near 43.60. 

The first downside target for the cross emerges at 187.47, the low of April 17. Extended losses could see a drop to 186.54, the low of April 8. The crucial support level for GBP/JPY is seen in the 185.00-184.95 zone, representing the psychological level and the lower limit of the Bollinger Band.

In the bullish case, the immediate resistance level is located at the 190.00 round mark. Sustained trading above this level could attract some buyers to 191.90, the 100-day EMA. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is 194.20, the high of April 3. 

GBP/JPY daily chart