April 16, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar LIVE: 7th Consecutive Daily GBP Gain, “Momentum Remains Bullish”

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate rallied on Wednesday, striking a new multi-month high at 1.32679 amid mounting uncertainty over US trade policy.

According to FX strategists at Scotiabank, “GBPUSD’s gains have extended for a seventh consecutive session and momentum remains bullish with an RSI near the overbought threshold at 70.”

Looking ahead, with notable UK and US economic data in short supply, GBP/USD movement is likely to be driven by global sentiment in the second half of the week.

If investor confidence continues to deteriorate on the back of Trump’s erratic approach to trade policy, the US Dollar may remain under pressure.

However, any shift towards risk-off sentiment could allow the ‘Greenback’ to mount a recovery against the Pound.

Analysts at Scotiabank suggest 1.34 is in the crosshairs for near-term GBPUSD buyers.

“We look to near-term resistance around 1.33, and beyond that, the September high around 1.34. Near-term support is expected between 1.3220 and 1.32,” says Eric Theoret, FX Strategist at Scotiabank.

The US Dollar struggled to find its footing on Wednesday as investor concerns surrounding Washington’s trade strategy continued to mount.

Conflicting signals from President Trump over new tariffs on Chinese electronics has left markets rattled. Initial suggestions that products like smartphones would be exempt were quickly contradicted by Trump himself, who posted on social media that no such exemptions would be made.

He also hinted at launching a fresh investigation into the electronics supply chain — a move that further deepened uncertainty around US trade policy.

As doubts grow over the coherence of Trump’s economic agenda, investors are pulling back from the US Dollar, with fears of a recession now fuelling speculation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months.

The Pound (GBP) trended broadly lower on Wednesday, following the release of weaker-than-expected UK inflation figures.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed headline inflation fell from 2.8% to 2.6% in March, missing expectations for a more modest decline.

Sterling slid as the weaker-than-expected inflation print was seen as all but confirming the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in May, with GBP investors also pricing up to two more cuts in the second half of 2025.

This is despite expectations that UK inflation will quickly accelerate again in the coming months amid global trade tensions and rising energy prices.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on April 16, 2025

• During trading on Thursday, we have seen the US dollar go back and forth against the Japanese yen as we try to sort out whether or not the ¥143 level will offer enough support to keep this market afloat.
• All things being equal, this is a market that is going to continue to be bearish from a longer-term perspective, looking back at the least 3 months or so.

As the tariff war continues, it’s interesting to see that the Japanese yen has been used as a safety currency over the US dollar, as the US bond market has been sold off quite viciously. That being said, I think there is a part of the story that people are not cognizant of. Most traders look at the US dollar falling and simply assume that it is some type of political decision. Reality is that bonds are being sold off in the United States in order to raise cash. After all, one of the most common places to store cash for large corporations and sovereign wealth funds would be the US Treasury market, so if you found yourself in a situation where you may need to hoard cash and become much more liquid, you would sell your bonds.

Technical Analysis

That being said, the end result is somewhat the same, but I think this is much more temporary than people realize. After all, the Federal Reserve looks likely to remain somewhat stubborn as far as interest rate cuts are concerned, and at the same time, you have the Japanese unlikely to do anything too aggressive. If global trade does in fact slow down, Japan is particularly vulnerable to this, and you may see the interest rate differential get interesting yet again. After all, you do get paid to hang on to this pair for the end of day swap.

At this point, I think if the market can close above the ¥145 level on a daily candlestick, then you may have more of a correction ahead. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the ¥142 level, then I think we would drop down to the ¥140 level.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Created on April 16, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• General Trend: Upward.
• Today’s EUR/USD Support Points: 1.1260 – 1.1190 – 1.1100, respectively.
• Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Points: 1.1335 – 1.1400 – 1.1465, respectively.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1420, with a target of 1.1280 and a stop loss of 1.1510.
• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1180, with a target of 1.1450 and a stop loss of 1.1050.

In our technical analyses for the EUR/USD pair, we had indicated that the recent stability near its highest levels since January 2022, when it tested the 1.1473 resistance level, might be followed by a period of calm before the reaction to the results of important US economic data and the announcement of the European Central Bank’s policies. According to licensed trading platform data, EUR/USD trading has retreated to the support level of 1.1263 and is stable around it at the time of writing the analysis. The downward correction does not signify a change in the overall bullish direction of the EUR/USD price, but rather a preparation for what’s more important.

Today, EUR/USD trading will focus on the reaction to the announcement of the Eurozone inflation figures, which will be released at 11:00 AM Cairo time. These figures will have implications for the future policy of the European Central Bank, which will announce its decisions on Thursday. Also. US retail sales figures will then be released at 2:30 PM Cairo time. Finally, another important event is the anticipated remarks from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at 7:30 PM Cairo time.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp website follower, the EUR/USD trend still has opportunities to rise, but be cautious of the reaction to important weekly data.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Dear reader, please consider that the overall trend for the EUR/USD pair remains bullish, with the outlook remaining positive, particularly due to the ramifications of current US policies regarding tariffs and inflation on the runaway valuations that still prevail across major US equity markets. According to currency analysts’ expectations, Euro gains will also reduce inflation in the Eurozone, and the ECB is likely to adopt a more accommodative policy next Thursday, which could alleviate the rise of the EUR/USD pair, if not lead to a temporary setback. Now, we have surpassed the 1.1215 level (September 24 high) and 1.1275 (2023 high), and the next target is the 1.15 area, which was the highest level before the invasion of Ukraine on February 22nd.

Technical indicators, including the 14-day RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, continue to confirm a breakout above overbought levels. If the week’s events do not stimulate the euro’s gains, expect immediate profit-taking.

Signals and Forecasts for the Euro Dollar:

Bullish Scenario: The EUR/USD path remains within the bullish trend, and returning to the 1.1400 resistance is an important catalyst for the strength of the bulls’ control, thus preparing for stronger bullish breakouts. This requires the Euro to receive more and more impetus, and we must not take risks and monitor the developments of global trade wars to anticipate more price fluctuations and high volatility, which may affect investment plans. So far, the buying momentum for EUR/USD is strong.

Sell EUR/USD Signals: Selling may be a preferable strategy for EUR/USD from the resistance zone of 1.1410 and 1.1500, with targets at 1.1330 and 1.1250, and a stop-loss position at the resistance level of 1.1585.

Bearish Scenario: The EUR/USD pair may abandon its current bullish direction if it returns to the vicinity of the psychological level of 1.10, which could increase selling pressure towards the next important support at 1.0880 to confirm the bearish reversal of the overall trend.

Buy EUR/USD Signals: Buying may be a preferable strategy for EUR/USD from the support zone of 1.1170 and 1.1080, respectively, with a stop-loss position at 1.0975 and recommendation targets at the resistance levels of 1.1280 and 1.1440, respectively.

Decisively, don’t forget that the EUR/USD pair recorded its best level in more than three years, with US currency, bond, and stock markets deteriorating amid the escalating trade dispute between Washington and Beijing, and market sentiment towards everything American declining.

Ready to trade our Forex daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best European brokers in the industry for you.

The GBPJPY pair ended yesterday’s trading by providing new negative close below 189.90 resistance, to be forced to form mixed sideways trading by its stability near 189.00, due to the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators, specifically by stochastic approach from 80 level as appears in the above image.

The price success to gain the negative momentum will allow it to renew the negative trading, to press on 38.2% Fibonacci correction level at 187.85, as breaking it will extend the trading towards the next negative target near 186.50, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will cancel the negative suggestion, and makes the price begin building a new bullish track, to target several positive stations that begin at 190.50.

The expected trading range for today is between 187.85 and 189.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

The GBPJPY pair ended yesterday’s trading by providing new negative close below 189.90 resistance, to be forced to form mixed sideways trading by its stability near 189.00, due to the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators, specifically by stochastic approach from 80 level as appears in the above image.

The price success to gain the negative momentum will allow it to renew the negative trading, to press on 38.2% Fibonacci correction level at 187.85, as breaking it will extend the trading towards the next negative target near 186.50, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will cancel the negative suggestion, and makes the price begin building a new bullish track, to target several positive stations that begin at 190.50.

The expected trading range for today is between 187.85 and 189.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

Created on April 16, 2025

• During the trading session on Tuesday, we have seen the euro initially tried to rally against the British pound, but it got absolutely crushed as it looks like we are trying to drum back down toward the 0.85 level.
• This is an interesting trade that I talked about recently, but I also think the limited downside should be kept in the back of your mind.
• I think the real story will be told at the crucial 0.85 level, because if it does in fact end up holding as support, that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign.

Noisy Tariff Wars and Such

Keep in mind that there is a lot of noise out there with tariff wars, and while these 2 currencies don’t reflect a couple of economies going after each other, the reality is that the euro had gotten overbought against the US dollar and a whole host of other foreign currencies, so it needed to pull back. The question now is whether or not it can find its footing in turn things around? I do think the 0.85 level will tell the story. Furthermore, you need to keep in mind that Friday has most major economies shutting down large portions of their markets, so this decision may end up being made after the ECB press conference on Thursday.

I do think that it’s very unlikely that the markets will be easy anytime soon, and I just don’t think that this currency pair will be any different. Keep in mind that the pip value in this market is higher than many others, so it doesn’t take as much real estate to make a profit here. If you can make 50 pips in this chair, it’s a lot more impressive than other currency pairs such as the USD/JPY. Ultimately, I think we are getting close to an area where some value hunters might be interested, but I suspect that the next 2 days could be somewhat stagnant in this pair, before setting up for a bigger trade.

Ready to trade our daily forecast and analysis? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers UK to check out.

April 16, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: Scope for GBP/USD Gains to 1.3290 say UoB

Market fear has eased considerably over the past 24 hours with gains in US equities and bonds.

The FTSE 100 index traded 0.9% higher in early trading, maintaining the recovery from last week’s slide.

Deutsche Bank commented; “Whilst equities were recovering, arguably a bigger relief for investors was the recovery in the bond market, which eased fears about some sort of serious financial turmoil developing.”

The Pound remains correlated strongly with global risk conditions and the currency gained important support from a rebound in asset prices.

Dovish Fed rhetoric also hampered the dollar in global markets.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate surged to 6-month highs around 1.3240 and Sterling also posted net gains on the crosses.

UoB sees scope for further GBP/USD gains to 1.3290.

ING sees a bias for EUR/USD to strengthen to 1.15 and, if this scenario plays out, GBP/USD is likely to extend gains.

There is still an important element of caution surrounding the implications of US trade policies.

According to MUFG; “While we are seeing carve-outs emerge from Trump’s trade policy there is unlikely to be any let-up over the coming weeks/months. The next dangerous stage for the financial markets will be getting confirmation of the damage being done to the real economy from the tariff hit and the uncertainty.”

The latest UK labour-market data was mixed. The number of people on payrolls declined 8,000 for February and there was a provisional 78,000 slide for March.

Vacancies declined for the 33rd successive month and dipped below pre-pandemic levels.

The annual increase in headline wages growth increased marginally to 5.9% from a revised 5.8% previously while underlying growth was unchanged at 5.6%, further evidence of sticky wages increases.

According to ING; “The latest one-month and three-month changes in private-sector pay show that the pressure isn’t really abating. The latest rise in the National Living Wage will also keep pay growth supported through the spring.”

Pantheon Macroeconomics chief UK economist Rob Wood commented; “we would treat the initial estimate of payrolls with a large bucket of salt because the 78,000 month-to-month fall will get raised markedly in next month’s figures to around no change if revisions continue to follow the pattern of the past couple of years.

Nevertheless, he added; “There is enough here for the MPC to cut interest rates in May and to signal further reductions ahead. Accordingly, rate setters will likely sound a little more dovish at their May meeting, especially after the economic and market ructions following President Trump’s tariff hikes.”

ING also remains confident that there will be a May BoE rate cut.

Any potential negative Pound impact from BoE rate cuts would be offset if US rates decline.

There were dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller on Tuesday. If there is notable disruption from tariffs he noted; “With a rapidly slowing economy, even if inflation is running well above 2%, I expect the risk of recession would outweigh the risk of escalating inflation, especially if the effects of tariffs in raising inflation are expected to be short lived.”

He implied that the Fed will look through higher inflation and markets are expecting at least three rate cuts this year.

MUFG commented; “This kind of scenario points to a potential notable further decline in real yields, possibly into negative territory, at the front-end of the curve which is an unfavourable development for the dollar.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Dollar Forecasts

Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.

April 15, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Strikes Six-Month Best on UK-US Trade Deal Hopes

GBP/USD climbed to a six-month best buy exchange rate on Tuesday, buoyed by a risk-positive market mood and rising speculation over a potential UK-US trade agreement.

The Pound exchange rates enjoyed support on Tuesday as investors embraced riskier assets, pushing the increasingly risk-sensitive UK currency higher against its safe-haven counterparts.

This rally came despite a mixed UK labour market report. While wage growth remained relatively robust in the three months to February, the figure undershot forecasts, prompting some traders to raise their expectations for a potential Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut in May.

Adding to Sterling’s strength were fresh signs of progress towards a UK-US trade deal. Comments from US Vice-President JD Vance suggested the UK could secure more favourable terms than its European peers, stating:

‘I think there’s a good chance that, yes, we’ll come to a great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries.’

The remarks helped lift sentiment toward the Pound throughout the session.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) came under pressure on Tuesday as investors shifted away from the safe-haven currency in favour of riskier assets.

Sentiment was boosted after the US confirmed that electronics would be excluded from the newly announced 145% tariffs on imports from China.

Additionally, Donald Trump signalled that potential tariffs on imported cars and car parts could be delayed, giving automakers more time to establish production facilities on American soil.

This combination of easing trade tensions and upbeat risk appetite left the US Dollar struggling for support.

Looking ahead, the UK’s latest consumer price index, due Wednesday morning, could shape the direction of GBP/USD.

Analysts are forecasting a modest slowdown in inflation, which may reinforce expectations of a BoE rate cut and apply downward pressure on the Pound.

Later in the day, US retail sales data for March is expected to show strong growth – a result that could help the US Dollar recover some ground.

Traders will also be keeping an eye on developments around US trade policy and potential UK-US trade talks. While recession concerns in the US could continue to drag on the Dollar, any renewed optimism about a trade pact could offer the Pound fresh support.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday and then again, here early on Tuesday. This is a market that’s trying to find its bottom. And it is probably worth noting that the yen is starting to sell off a bit against other currencies. So, this might be more of a yen story at the moment. But nonetheless, if we can clear the 145 yen level to the upside, it’s likely that we will see a bit of follow through. The 140 yen level underneath is probably your next major support level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied again in early trading on Tuesday, but quite frankly, this currency pair is the poster child of an overbought currency situation. After all, this assumes that China is just suddenly going to have smooth things over with the United States and vice versa because the Australian dollar, of course, is highly sensitive to the Chinese situation.

Furthermore, we have the 200 day EMA sitting just above the 0.64 level, an area that’s been resistance multiple times. And we got here pretty quickly. So, we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out. Signs of exhaustion could very well lead to selling towards the 0.62 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.