– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: Bond-Market Jitters Keep GBP Under Pressure

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) continues to stall at resistance near 1.3520, with UoB analysts expecting range trading between 1.3360 and 1.3525. Scotiabank is more upbeat, highlighting Sterling’s recovery above its 50-day MA as scope for a sustained push higher, though bond-market jitters remain a core risk.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Unable to Break Resistance

The Pound to Dollar rate again challenged resistance above 1.3500 on Thursday but failed to hold the gains and retreated to near 1.3450 with another bout of anxiety over UK bonds. Key resistance remains in place around 1.3520/5.

According to UoB; “Yesterday, GBP rose briefly and slightly above 1.3525 (high was 1.3527), before retreating quickly. There has been no clear increase in upward momentum, and we continue to expect GBP to trade between 1.3360 and 1.3525 for now.”

Scotiabank is more confident over the outlook; “We are reassured by the GBP’s push back above its 50 day MA (1.3463) and see scope for a sustained push back above 1.35.”

Longer-term MUFG is not forecasting a GBP/USD move above 1.40 despite dollar vulnerability.

Domestically, the bond market remains a key focus with the latest auction on Thursday.

Scotiabank commented; “The UK bond market is once again in focus, as the latest 10Y gilt auction generated the lowest oversubscription rate since December 2023. The UK’s fiscal outlook remains a core risk for the GBP into the November 26 budget release.

The 10-year yield increased to 4.75% from below 4.70% before a retreat to 4.72%.

Markets remain wary over the risk of bonds and the Pound weakening in tandem.

The latest US Challenger data recorded a decline in layoffs to just over 54,000 for September from close to 73,000 the previous year.

For the first nine months of the year, layoffs are still 55% higher than the previous year with the highest figure since 2020.

The layoffs data overall offered some encouragement, but Scotiabank focussed on yesterday’s ADP jobs data.

According to the bank; “ADP is down for two consecutive months and negative in three of the past four. That is hard to ignore as a clear sign of more pronounced labour market weakness.”

The US Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday that Fed Governor Cook is allowed to remain in post for now. The court will hear arguments in January over President Trump’s attempt to fire her.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore commented; “Market concern about the Fed’s independence now moves to the backburner for the next few months.”

MUFG still pointed to longer-term risks; “Without an open Fed Governor seat, President Trump will now likely need to use Stephen Miran’s seat to potentially bring in his candidate to be the next Fed Chair unless he picks an existing Fed Governor to be the next Fed Chair.”

The bank added; “The likelihood of further Fed rate cuts and ongoing threats to the Fed’s independence from the Trump administration are important reasons why we continue to expect further US dollar weakness in the year ahead.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Dollar Pressured by Shutdown and Fed Cut Expectations

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was largely muted on Thursday despite an ongoing US government shutdown.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3497, virtually unchanged from the start of Thursday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure against most of its peers on Thursday, weighed down by the ongoing US government shutdown.

Adding to the Dollar’s struggles was Wednesday’s ADP employment change report, which fell sharply to -32k, well below the expected rise to 50k.

The disappointing reading heightened expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, further undermining USD exchange rates during Thursday’s European session.

Meanwhile, a slightly positive market mood also limited the ‘Greenback’s’ appeal on Thursday, as risk-on sentiment weighed on its safe-haven status.

The Pound (GBP) remained largely steady against most of its peers on Thursday, despite a quiet UK economic calendar.

Sterling drew limited support from the broadly positive market sentiment, with its risk-sensitive characteristics allowing it to gain slightly against traditional safe-haven currencies.

However, this same sensitivity to risk meant that GBP struggled against more risk-linked currencies, limiting any meaningful upside.

With no domestic data to drive momentum, the Pound largely drifted throughout Thursday’s European session, finishing the day on a subdued note.

Pound to US Dollar Forecast: UK and US PMIs to Drive Movement

Looking ahead to Friday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is set to be influenced by the release of the latest services PMIs from both the US and the UK.

In the US, the ISM services PMI will be the only significant data point, as the ongoing government shutdown prevents the publication of the latest non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures.

September’s reading is forecast to dip slightly, though it is still expected to remain above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction.

Should the data meet expectations, it could provide modest support for USD exchange rates.

For the UK, attention will turn to September’s finalised S&P services PMI.

The index is forecast to confirm a slowdown in the country’s key services sector, potentially weighing on investor sentiment towards Sterling.

If the data prints as expected, GBP exchange rates may struggle to gain ground, leaving the Pound vulnerable to renewed pressure as the week comes to a close.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen during trading, initially trying to rally on Thursday, but now it looks like we are drifting a little bit lower. We are still very much in a consolidation range. We had a little bit of a fake breakout here about five or six trading sessions ago. And now it looks like we are going to try to figure out whether or not we are still in this range. I think that might actually end up being the case before it’s all said and done. But if we were to break down below 145.50 yen, then the thing comes unraveled.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Thursday, but is giving those gains back again. This is a market that’s hanging around the 0.66 level. And I think now we’re basically just trying to figure out whether or not we are going to re-enter the previous consolidation area. That would not surprise me.

It looks like the Australian dollar just doesn’t have the momentum to continue going higher with any type of speed. At this point, I’m a little bit ambivalent about this pair. I wouldn’t use the word bearish. It’s not quite that bad, but I do think we are more likely to drift lower than significantly higher. That being said, if we could take out the 0.67 level to the upside, that would be extraordinarily bullish.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The EURNZD approached its last bullish rally from the resistance of the bullish channel at 2.0330, then begin forming bearish corrective waves, affected by stochastic negativity to gather the gains by reaching 2.0135.

We expect resuming the bearish corrective track, due to stochastic stability below 50 level, to expect its target to 2.0050 level, reaching the extra support at 2.000, while renewing the bullish attempts requires breaching the barrier near 2.0190, motivating the bullish attack to ease the mission of pressing on the resistance of the bullish channel.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.0000 and 2.0170

Trend forecast: Bearish