Created on September 17, 2025

• The Euro has rallied significantly in the early hours here on Tuesday as it looks like we are trying to break the 1.18 level for a bigger move.
• All things being equal, this is a situation where traders will continue to see a lot of hesitation in this area so we’ll have to wait and see if we can truly break to a fresh high which would be closer to the 1.1835 level.
• If we do, you’re not out of the woods quite yet because you have the Wednesday interest rate decision that will have a major influence on what happens next.

With that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where a lot of traders are going to be very cautious, mainly due to the idea that the Federal Reserve announcement, while expected to be a rate cut, may have people worrying about the global economy. We’ll just see how nervous they are. If they’re a little too nervous, that actually is pro-dollar.

It will have people running to the bond market, which of course takes dollars. We’ll just have to wait and see in the short term; it certainly looks like you can’t sell this pair. And I really don’t know how much clarity you have until the end of the Wednesday session.

Be Careful

That’s the main reason I’m doing the analysis on this pair here, because I know there are a lot of people watching this and it’s getting very bullish, but the market already knows there’s a rate cut. It’s the statement and the reaction to the press conference end statement that you will have to watch. If we do pull back, I don’t suggest that you should be selling this pair either. But it would not surprise me at all later this day, on Tuesday, to see this market pull back into the consolidation area we had been in.

If we do continue higher, the measured move is for the 1.20 level to be targeted. If we break down the 1.16 level and the 50 day EMA both should be significant support. Again, the market knows the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates, but they sound even mildly hawkish or concerned about the future. That’s going to catch a lot of traders on the wrong side of this market.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best forex trading platforms for beginners worth trading with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Despite the weak trading of Platinum price recently, its stability above the moving average 55 reinforces the stability of the extra support at $1382.00, besides stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum, these factors assist confirming the continuation of the positivity, to keep waiting for breaching the obstacle of $1408,00 to ease the mission of achieving the main targets that begin at $1435.00.

The risk of changing the main trend is represented by attempting to break the critical support at $1355.00, forcing it to form strong bearish waves, to expect reaching $1302.00 initially reaching to 38.2%Fibonacci correction level at $1255.00. 

The expected trading range for today is between $1375.00 and $1425.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

rises to a 10-week high even as the UK jobs market slows. slips after mixed data and amid caution ahead of the tomorrow.

GBP/USD Rises to a 10-Week High Even as UK Jobs Market Slows

• UK unemployment stays at 4.7% and wage growth slows
• US falls ahead of the Fed rate decision tomorrow
• GBP/USD rises above 1.36

GBP/USD has risen to a 10-week high ahead of the BoE – Fed rate divergence, and even after UK jobs data point to a slowing labour market.

Data today showed that the UK job market slowed again, with the number of workers on payrolls falling for a seventh straight month, and the remained at 4.7% its highest since the second quarter of 2021—however, the number of vacancies improved from last month’s 4-year low. Wage growth eased to 4.7%, which is still too high to be consistent with an inflation rate of 2%.

The data today won’t do too much to alleviate the Bank of England’s concerns over the upside risk to inflation. UK data is due tomorrow and is expected to rise to 3.9% amid a stagflationary outlook.

The central bank is expected to leave rates up 4% in Thursday’s meeting. Given sticky inflation and concerns over the chancellor’s budget in late December, the Bank of England may not until early next year.

This is in contrast to the Federal Reserve, which kicks off its two-day meeting today and is expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points in the right announcement tomorrow. The decision comes amid signs of weakness in the US labour market and as inflation sits at 2.9%. The question here is how dovish will the Fed be? The market is pricing in almost three rate cuts before the end of the year, while the Fed guided for two.

US data is due today and is expected to ease to 0.3% from 0.5%. Weaker-than-forecast data could unnerve investors, pulling the lower.

GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has extended its recovery from the 1.3140 August double bottom low, rising above the 50 SMA, the falling trendline, and the 1.36 August high, which, together with the RSI above 50, keeps buyers hopeful of further upside.

Buyers will look to extend gains towards 1.37, the round number, and 1.3790, the 2025 high.

Support is seen at 1.36, and 1.3480, the falling trendline support. Below here, 1.3430 comes into play, and 1.3350.

DAX Slips After Mixed ZEW Survey Data

• German ZEW economic sentiment rises & current situation falls
• Banks fall in a cautious mood ahead of the Fed decision
• DAX consolidates in a tight range

European stocks are slipping lower on Tuesday, giving back some of yesterday’s gains and pulled down by banks as investors show signs of caution ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday.

The Fed is expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points as the central bank looks to support the weakening labour market even as remains above target.

On the data front, defied Expectations by rising to 37.3 in September, up from 34.7. Economists had expected a decline to 27.3. This points to investor morale improving in a sign that financial analysts are optimistic about the outlook.

However, the current situation was worse than feared, falling to -76.4 down from -68.6. This was worse than the -75 that the mark that economists and forecast. This reflects uncertainty surrounding the risks around US tariff policies and Germany’s autumn of reforms.

DAX Forecast – Technical Analysis

After falling away from its record high, the DAX is consolidating in a tight range below its multi-month rising trendline resistance around 23,700. The RSI below 50 suggests that momentum is slowly fading.

Sellers need to break below the 23,500 support zone, the September low, and 23,400, the August low, to open the door to 23,000, the June low.

On the upside, a rise above the 24,000 resistance zone and the 50 SMA opens the door to 24,540 and fresh record highs.

Original Post

USD/JPY Tests 146.50 as Fed and BoJ Shape Diverging Paths

The USD/JPY pair continues to slide, last trading near 146.56, its lowest level since early September, as markets digest diverging monetary policy expectations between Washington and Tokyo. A stronger yen has emerged for the second session in a row, driven by firm Japanese bond yields and positioning ahead of Friday’s Bank of Japan policy meeting. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has weakened broadly, with the DXY index dropping to 96.80, its weakest level since early July, as traders aggressively price in Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Fed Cut Bets Pressure the Dollar Despite Firm U.S. Data

Markets are nearly unanimous in expecting a 25-basis-point Fed cut on Wednesday, with traders more focused on Powell’s tone and the updated dot plot than on today’s U.S. economic releases. August retail sales and industrial production both exceeded forecasts, yet the dollar still slipped, a sign that easing expectations overshadow data resilience. The U.S. labor market continues to cool, and consumer sentiment has eroded, reinforcing bets on up to three cuts in 2025. Political shifts at the Fed, with Stephen Miran confirmed to the board and uncertainty around Governor Lisa Cook’s stance, add complexity to the policy outlook.

Japanese Political Shifts Add Volatility to Yen Outlook

The yen’s strength is not only policy-driven but also tied to domestic political changes. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation has injected uncertainty into Japan’s leadership, with Shinjiro Koizumi emerging as a contender for LDP leadership. A new prime minister could influence how the BoJ manages its gradual exit from ultra-loose policy. While the BoJ is expected to keep its short-term rate at 0.50%, Governor Ueda may strike a more optimistic tone on the economy, offering a subtle hawkish tilt that supports yen demand.

USD/JPY Technical Structure Tilts Bearish

Technically, USD/JPY is trapped in a declining pattern. Resistance at 147.55 and 147.14 has capped upside attempts, while the drop below the 200-SMA at 147.14 has flipped that level into resistance. Multiple long upper wicks on candlestick charts signal heavy selling pressure at these resistance zones. Support levels to watch are 146.59, 146.00, and 145.51, the latter tested multiple times in August. With the RSI at 36, the pair is not yet oversold, suggesting further downside potential before buyers intervene. A decisive break under 146.00 could open the way toward the mid-145.00s, while recovery above 147.20 would neutralize the bearish setup.

Range-Bound Trading Since August Now at Risk of Breakout

Since early August, USD/JPY has held in a narrow 100-pip range, with false breakouts around the July Fed and BoJ decisions quickly snapped back by the August NFP report. That consolidation is now at risk of breaking. If the Fed signals fewer cuts than the market expects, a dollar rebound could trigger upside back toward 148.00, but a dovish Powell would accelerate the slide, leaving 145.50 exposed. This week’s Fed-BoJ doubleheader ensures the range will likely resolve into a stronger trend.

Cross-Currency Signals Highlight Yen Strength

The yen’s performance is also reflected in cross rates. EUR/JPY is shaping an ascending triangle above 172.30 with resistance at 175.00, showing euro strength against the yen but with clear breakout dynamics. GBP/JPY already breached the 200.00 level, turning that psychological barrier into new support. These moves underscore broader yen weakness across crosses, but in USD/JPY the dollar’s parallel decline has created a unique dynamic where two weak currencies offset each other, keeping the pair compressed until policy divergence forces a direction.

Verdict: USD/JPY Bearish Bias, Sell on Rallies

Based on current technicals, macro policy paths, and political uncertainty, USD/JPY leans bearish. The market is primed for a break below 146.00, with downside toward 145.50 and potentially 144.00 if dovish Fed guidance aligns with a steadier BoJ. Any rebounds toward 147.20–147.55 should be treated as selling opportunities unless Powell surprises with a hawkish tilt. The bias into this week’s dual central bank events favors the yen, making USD/JPY a Sell on rallies until stronger U.S. data or Fed resistance to cuts reverses sentiment.

That’s TradingNEWS

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast, Can GBP Finally Break Resistance?

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) strengthened to a 2-month high just below 1.3600 on Monday and again testing key resistance.

GBP/USD failed to break above this area in both July and August and the outcome this time around could be pivotal for the medium term.

There are major fundamental events this week, including the Federal Reserve and Bank of England policy decisions, with the impact on expectations crucial for currency markets.

Key elements will be expectations surrounding the November Bank of England policy decision and the number of Fed rate cuts this year.

MUFG asks; “Will G10 Central Bank updates bring an end to recent FX range trading?”

UoB noted; “GBP must break and hold above 1.3595 before a move toward 1.3635 can be expected.”

According to ING; “GBP/USD could break above resistance at 1.3590/3600 this week if the Fed is sufficiently dovish.”

Scotiabank sees scope for GBP/USD gains towards 1.38 if there is a break above 1.36.

From a longer-term perspective the bank expects gains to 1.40 by the end of 2025.

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday.

There are very strong expectations that the Fed will sanction a rate cut with markets pricing in just below a 95% chance of a 25 basis-point cut with a small chance of a larger 50 basis-point cut.

There is an important element of uncertainty surrounding voters at this meeting.

The Administration is aiming for a Senate vote on Monday to confirm Miran’s appointment as a Governor which would allow him to participate in this week’s meeting.

President Trump is also still trying to overturn a court decision and have Governor Cook fired from the central bank.

Markets will also be looking at the latest economic forecasts, including the new set of interest rate projections.

Guidance from Powell will also inevitably be a key element.

MUFG commented; “For short-term US yields to continue adjusting lower to provide a fresh trigger for another leg lower for the US dollar, the Fed would either have to deliver a larger rate cut this week and/or signal that larger rate cuts are on the table if the US labour market continues to weaken.”

There are strong market expectations that the Bank of England will hold interest rates at 4.00% this week.

The labour-market and inflation data, however, could have some impact on the bank’s rhetoric as well as market expectations surrounding the November meeting.

MUFG commented; “With so little priced for another BoE cut this year, UK rates and GBP should be more sensitive to softer data.”

According to ING; “Unless we see some surprise drop in employment and/or wages/services inflation, it looks like the Bank of England will continue the hawkish narrative it introduced at the August MPC meeting.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

The GBPJPY pair attempted to record some extra gains by hitting 200.75 level, to return to settle below 200.40 barrier, to obstacle the chances for resuming the bullish attack.

Therefore, we will keep the bearish correctional scenario, gathering the negative momentum makes us expect declining towards 198.60 directly, then attempts to press on the support near 197.80, while the price success in confirming breaching the barrier will allow it to renew the bullish attempts, to expect its rally towards 201.55, forming the next positive target of the bullish scenario.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.60 and 200.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

The GBPJPY pair attempted to record some extra gains by hitting 200.75 level, to return to settle below 200.40 barrier, to obstacle the chances for resuming the bullish attack.

Therefore, we will keep the bearish correctional scenario, gathering the negative momentum makes us expect declining towards 198.60 directly, then attempts to press on the support near 197.80, while the price success in confirming breaching the barrier will allow it to renew the bullish attempts, to expect its rally towards 201.55, forming the next positive target of the bullish scenario.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.60 and 200.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

The GBPJPY pair attempted to record some extra gains by hitting 200.75 level, to return to settle below 200.40 barrier, to obstacle the chances for resuming the bullish attack.

Therefore, we will keep the bearish correctional scenario, gathering the negative momentum makes us expect declining towards 198.60 directly, then attempts to press on the support near 197.80, while the price success in confirming breaching the barrier will allow it to renew the bullish attempts, to expect its rally towards 201.55, forming the next positive target of the bullish scenario.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.60 and 200.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

• GBP/USD continues to push higher after closing in positive territory on Monday.
• The pair could extend the uptrend once 1.3640 is confirmed as support.
• The Fed’s two-day policy meeting will start later in the day.

GBP/USD benefits from the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) and trades at its highest level in over two months above 1.3630. As markets gear up for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) critical policy meeting, the USD could have a hard time gathering strength and allow GBP/USD to cling to its bullish stance.

In the American session on Monday, the positive shift in risk mood weighed on the USD. Moreover, growing expectations for a dovish Fed outlook following White House economic adviser Stephen Miran’s confirmation to join the Federal Reserve Board and vote at the upcoming meeting hurt the currency further.

Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.7% in the three months to July, as anticipated. In this period, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, edged lower to 4.8% from 5% to match the market expectation. These figures were largely ignored by market participants.

The US Census Bureau will release Retail Sales data for August later in the day. Although a stronger-than-expected increase in this data could help the USD show some resilience with the immediate reaction, investors could refrain from taking large positions.

In the meantime, US stock index futures trade modestly higher in the European session. In case the market mood remains upbeat after a bullish opening in Wall Street, the USD is likely to remain under bearish pressure.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend aligns as an immediate resistance level at 1.3640. In case GBP/USD rises above this level and starts using it as support, 1.3700 (static level, round level) could be seen as the next hurdle before 1.3770 (static level, beginning point of the downtrend).

Looking south, support levels could be spotted at 1.3600 (static level, round level), 1.3540 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.3500 (static level, 100-period Simple Moving Average).

Created on September 16, 2025

• The US dollar has been at the forefront of what most people have been paying attention to and not only the Forex markets, but markets in general.
• So, with that being said, I think you’ve got a scenario where it’s not overly surprising that there has been a lot of choppiness against the yen.

After all, this is a great way to show signs of where the U.S. dollar might go over the longer term and risk appetite on the whole. The Japanese yen, of course, is a major risk appetite measure. The Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency. That being said, this week is going to be particularly interesting, mainly due to the fact that markets are going to be watching the Federal Reserve.

The Wednesday Federal Reserve interest rate decision, I think, will end up being a major market mover, not necessarily for the 25 basis points rate cut, but the concerns that the Federal Reserve shows, or for that matter, doesn’t show. If they don’t seem overly concerned about the market, that could change things. It might send the dollar higher based on the idea that they won’t cut as much.

If there is Fear at the Fed

On the other hand, if they are in a situation where it appears that they are a bit concerned, then I think it would make a lot of sense for the U S dollar to strengthen against most currencies. Although this one could be the outlier in the sense that we could just see more sideways action as traders prefer both the US dollar and the Japanese yen over most other currencies and that could very well be how this plays out. We just go sideways and grind back and forth collecting swap. That being said, we are in a range right now with the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators right about where price is and the 149 yen level above as a major resistance barrier and the 146.50 yen level underneath as a major support level.

In other words, I think we’re about as close to fair value and balance as you can get. This is a very neutral pair. It will be noisy on Friday and then we’ll really start to know what’s going to happen, I think on Thursday.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.