May 13, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Climbs vs Dollar on Soft US Inflation Data

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate gained ground on Tuesday as the US released its latest inflation reading.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3245, up roughly 0.5% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) came under pressure on Tuesday following the publication of a softer-than-expected US inflation print.

April’s consumer price index (CPI) showed headline inflation easing to 2.3%, down from 2.4%, marking the lowest rate in more than four years and falling short of forecasts for a steady reading.

The unexpected decline prompted traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, dragging the ‘Greenback’ lower.

Adding to the downside, a generally upbeat market mood saw investors shy away from the safe-haven currency, intensifying the USD’s losses.

The Pound (GBP) faced early pressure on Tuesday after disappointing UK labour market figures dented investor confidence.

According to the latest ONS (Office for National Statistics) report, unemployment climbed to 4.5% in March, reaching its highest level since summer 2021, while wage growth (excluding bonuses) cooled more than anticipated, slipping from 5.9% to 5.6%.

The figures fell short of forecasts and raised fresh concerns about the strength of the UK jobs market.

Despite the initial downturn, Sterling found firmer footing later in the session, particularly against safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar.

A risk-on mood helped offset earlier losses, with the Pound’s sensitivity to risk sentiment offering it modest support into the afternoon.

In the absence of fresh economic data from either side of the Atlantic, the spotlight is now on central bank commentary to drive movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate.

Following the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish commentary at its most recent policy meeting, further optimistic signals could offer the Pound additional support during Wednesday’s European session.

For the US Dollar, if the Federal Reserve responds to Tuesday’s cooler-than-forecast inflation figures with dovish signals, the US Dollar may come under renewed pressure as the week unfolds.

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• The US dollar has rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Monday as we kick off the week on a risk on type of note.
• That being said, a lot of this is going to be based on the idea of swap being paid at the end of every day and then, we get some type of tariff relief coming from the United States and China.
• That makes people think about risk on behavior and therefore you start to see the Japanese yen fall.

Furthermore, it’s worth noting that the United States is definitely seeing inflows during the trading session on Monday, not only in the currency markets, but also the stock market.

Short Term Pullbacks

So, with that being said, I think we’ve got a situation where short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities like I’ve been saying for some time. I think the 140 yen level is going to end up being a massive floor in the market but do keep in the mind that if we get a lot of concern in the market again, we could see the Japanese yen strengthen.

Short-term pullbacks offer those buying opportunities I’ve been talking about, especially near the 50 day EMA. The 200 day EMA sits just below the 150 yen level, which has a lot of psychology attached to it.

So, if we can break above there, that’s a very bullish sign. But right now, I think we’ve got a situation where we’ve definitely started to see some short covering. We definitely are starting to see a certain amount of momentum. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to find value hundreds, especially considering, like I said, you get paid at the end of every day.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• The Euro gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Monday, only to turn around to fill the gap and then start falling again.
• We’re well below the 1.12 level, but it does look like the 50-day EMA is trying to offer a bit of support.
• Breaking down below the 50-day EMA opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.0950 level, which was a major area of demand.

Anything below there opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.0750 level. On the other hand, if we turn around and rally from here, the 1.12 level is an area of potential resistance as we have seen over the last several months, a couple of different times. Ultimately, the euro has gotten a little bit of a barrier to deal with due to the fact that the China and US trade tariff talks actually went fairly well over the weekend. And this could isolate Europe if they are not careful.

The US Will Not Be Starved of Capital

After all, a lot of this comes down to the idea of the United States starving itself of capital coming in and goods coming in, which of course will not be the case regardless. But at this point in time, Europe is starting to show signs of cracks in several places. It’s more risk on in Europe in the indices than it is the currency.

The Euro, you know, it probably settles back into the range that we had been in for several years now between 1.05 and 1.09 or so. We’ll just have to wait and see. But at this point, I’m still relatively bearish. I do recognize there may be a bounce or two, but I think going down to the 1.0950 level at the very least makes the most sense. I would not be looking to buy this market, at least not right now.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The GBPJPY pair continued forming bullish trading, to face 23.6%Fibonacci correction level at 159.80, forming the previously suggested main target, to notice forming mixed trading due to stochastic reach to the overbought level, which makes us prefer the domination of the sideways bias temporarily until breaching the current barrier, which allows it to target new positive stations that might begin at 196.60.

While the failure to breach the barrier might assist the price to activate the bearish correctional track, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching 193.85 followed by 193.30 level, to close the last price gap.

The expected trading range for today is between 194.40 and 196.60

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair continued forming bullish trading, to face 23.6%Fibonacci correction level at 159.80, forming the previously suggested main target, to notice forming mixed trading due to stochastic reach to the overbought level, which makes us prefer the domination of the sideways bias temporarily until breaching the current barrier, which allows it to target new positive stations that might begin at 196.60.

While the failure to breach the barrier might assist the price to activate the bearish correctional track, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching 193.85 followed by 193.30 level, to close the last price gap.

The expected trading range for today is between 194.40 and 196.60

Trend forecast: Bullish

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has skyrocketed against the Japanese yen, although it does seem to be finding a little bit of trouble around the 148 yen level. But nonetheless, remember, people get paid to hold this currency pair. So not only were we forming a bottoming pattern around the 140 yen level, but you were collecting swap along the way. Now that some of the trade tensions seem to be disappearing, it makes perfect sense that this pair would rally.

This pair does tend to rally with risk appetite and risk appetite, according to the stock markets at least, which has gone through the ceiling during the trading session. So, I expect an attempt to get back to the 200 day EMA before it’s all said and done, with the occasional pullback offering buying opportunities.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The US dollar has strengthened against the Australian dollar a bit, as the Aussie initially tried to rally in celebration of perhaps Chinese growth due to the trade deal, only to turn around and fall as the US dollar has strengthened against almost everything. At this point, I’m watching the 0.635 zero level because if we break significantly below there, we are going much lower.

On the other hand, if we turn around and take out the 0.65 level to the upside on a daily close, then I think the Aussie has a chance of going all the way to 0.67 followed by 0.69. Remember though, the Australian dollar is highly levered to China, so we’ll have to see how that plays out.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Despite the strength of the US dollar against other major currencies following signals of an imminent trade agreement between China and the United States, the British Pound is showing remarkable resilience against the US dollar’s gains.
• At the beginning of trading this week, and across licensed currency trading company platforms, the GBP/USD pair is moving around the 1.3255 level at the time of writing this analysis, with its highest point being the 1.3298 resistance level.
• As is evident, the Pound is displaying strong resilience, as the trade deal between Britain and the United States will remain a positive factor for the strength of the currency pair.

Meanwhile, the GBP exchange rate is trading with positive momentum and is expected to continue its gains this week. Also, its gains come on the back of news that the United States and China have made progress towards a new trade agreement in weekend talks held in Geneva. This progress is crucial in boosting global investor confidence, which is a major driver for the British Pound. According to the latest developments, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng stated that the talks represent an “important first step” towards reaching a new trade agreement. He added, “Once announced, it will be good news for the world.”

Overall, the signs of progress were not expected so quickly, given the significant deterioration in relations between the United States and China following President Donald Trump’s imposition of large tariffs. Investors welcomed the progress made on Monday, which led to a rise in global stock markets amid “risk-on” trading.

Trading Tips:

We still advise buying the Pound Sterling against the US dollar from every downward level, but without risk and while monitoring the factors affecting the performance of the currency pair.

Looking at the economic calendar, the United Kingdom releases highly important wage and employment data on Tuesday, which often triggers volatility. Wages are expected to remain high, preventing the Bank of England from accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts. The Bank provided a more cautious-than-expected assessment of its performance in the May Monetary Policy Report last week, defying expectations that it might have paved the way for another interest rate cut in June.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

As clearly shown on the performance of the GBP/USD currency pair on the daily timeframe chart, the situation is neutral, with a balance between bear and bull control over the direction. Despite the recent selling, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not reached the midline, giving hope for sustained upward movement. However, the MACD indicator for the 12.26 closing is leaning downwards. Bear control over the Sterling against the US dollar will strengthen if it moves towards the support levels of 1.3190 and 1.3080, respectively. Conversely, over the same time frame, the 1.3400 resistance will remain the most important for bulls to control and prepare for stronger upward breakouts.

Decisively, we expect the pound to remain stable against the US dollar until markets and investors react to the announcement of US inflation figures, which will impact expectations for the future policies of the US Federal Reserve.

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• At the start of the US inflation week, the upward rebound gains for the USD/JPY currency pair continue, reaching the 146.28 resistance level, the highest for the pair in a month.
• Investors abandoned buying the Japanese Yen as a safe haven, as optimism about US-China trade negotiations led to a decline in demand for safe-haven assets.
• The USD/JPY pair’s gains will face another important event during this week’s trading, with the release of the US inflation reading, which strongly influences market expectations for the future policies of the US Federal Reserve.

Over the past weekend, officials from both countries indicated progress, with US representatives praising an agreement aimed at reducing the trade deficit, while Chinese leaders described the outcome as an “important consensus.” Meanwhile, US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the basic 10% tariff on other countries will “likely remain in place for the foreseeable future.” Investors also closely monitored the ongoing trade talks between the US and Japan, with Tokyo seeking to reach an agreement by June. Domestically, Japan recorded a current account surplus of 3.45 trillion yen in March, following a record surplus of 4.06 trillion yen in February.

Trading Tips:

Obviously, the upward shift in the USD/JPY pair requires an end to the trade dispute between the United States and global economies. Furthermore, failure to do so could lead to renewed selling of the currency pair.

Positive Investor Sentiment Lifts Japanese Stock Prices:

During today’s trading and across stock trading company platforms, the Japanese Nikkei 225 stock index rose by 0.2% to reach 37,600 points, while the broader Topix index rose by 0.4% to reach 2,744 points, marking its highest level in six weeks. This increase came as the US indicated “tangible progress” in trade negotiations with China over the weekend in Switzerland. The US highlighted its efforts to reduce its trade deficit, while Chinese leaders affirmed reaching an “important consensus.”

However, US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that the basic 10% tariffs on other countries are expected to remain in place “for the foreseeable future.” Investors also monitored the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and Japan, with Tokyo aiming to finalize a potential agreement by June. According to trading, gains were led by the shares of major companies included in the index, including Kawasaki Heavy Industries (up 3.9%), Disco Corp (2.5%), Fujikura (1.8%), Advantest (4%), and IHI Corp (1%).

Japan’s Services Sentiment at Lowest in Over 3 Years:

According to an official announcement today, Japan’s services sector index fell to 42.6 points in April 2025, from 45.1 points in the previous month, marking its lowest level since February 2022 and the fourth consecutive month of decline. The household budget trends index in housing-related sectors decreased, but it increased in the food and beverage sector. The corporate trends index also declined, affected by the non-manufacturing sector’s decrease. Employment also saw a decline during this period. Meanwhile, the economic outlook index fell to 42.7 points in April, its lowest level in four years, from 45.2 points in March, reflecting increasing concerns about the impact of US trade policy and persistent cost pressures.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

According to recent trading, the USD/JPY pair continues to trade above the 100-hour moving average by a few levels. Last Friday’s decline helped the currency pair recover from the overbought condition of the 14-hour Relative Strength Index. In the short term, bears will target selling moves towards the support level of 145.60, then to the support of 145.00, respectively. Conversely, bulls will look to capitalize on upward rebounds with gains to the resistance level of 146.30, then to the resistance of 146.85, respectively.

In the long term, according to the performance on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading within a descending channel. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index recently rebounded to avoid moving into oversold levels. Therefore, bulls will target extended rebounds at the resistance level of 147.50, then to the psychological resistance of 150.00, respectively. Conversely, over the same time frame, bears will seek to capitalize on the current wave of declines to move towards the support level of 143.00, then to the psychological support of 140.00, respectively.

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EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Within a descending channel formation.
• Today’s Euro/Dollar Support Levels: 1.1180 – 1.1100 – 1.1060.
• Today’s Euro/Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1280 – 1.1360 -1.1400.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1130 with a target of 1.1360 and a stop-loss at 1.1050.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1340 with a target of 1.1160 and a stop-loss at 1.1410.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

A downward price gap affected the EUR/USD currency pair at the start of trading this important week, with losses extending to the 1.1183 support level, the lowest for the pair in a month, before stabilizing around the 1.1220 level at the time of writing this analysis. The Forex market was affected at the beginning of the US inflation week by signals from trade talks between China and the United States. Trump confirmed “significant progress” in US-China trade talks – but a final agreement remains uncertain.

According to the movement of technical indicators, EUR/USD trading on the daily timeframe chart indicates the formation of a reverse descending channel, and the 1.1130 support will remain important for strong and continuous bear control over the currency pair’s direction. With the recent losses, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strongly pushed to break the midline, confirming the bearish shift. It has more room for larger losses before reaching the oversold zone. At the same time, the MACD lines confirm the downward movement, with the blue line significantly preceding the orange line.

Trading Tips:

Keep in mind that the EUR/USD trend is entering a new downward phase, which will be confirmed soon. Monitor the factors influencing the forex market to find the best trading opportunities.

The EUR/USD currency pair is not anticipating any important economic data during today’s Monday trading session, neither from the Eurozone nor the United States. Accordingly, the currency pair will move within narrow ranges until confirmation of trade agreements between global economies to avoid wider trade wars that threaten the future of global economic recovery. On the economic front, US inflation figures will remain the most prominent focus for currency traders this week.

The Future of the US/China Trade Agreement:

In this regard, US President Donald Trump enthusiastically tweeted about the recent trade discussions with China in Switzerland, describing them as “friendly but constructive” and noting “significant progress.” While this optimism from Trump can be viewed positively, leading market participants to anticipate positive outcomes for stocks and risk-sensitive currencies, investors and traders should exercise caution. On the one hand, Trump’s optimistic tone may reflect genuine achievements, which could lead to significant benefits for American companies and reduce trade tensions. If this development proves true with concrete details, it will have a significant positive impact on market sentiment. However, it can be reasonably assumed that a trade agreement has not yet been finalized, as such a crucial achievement would likely be accompanied by a definitive announcement or confirmation from other official channels.

Historically, optimistic statements from leaders – especially Trump – have sometimes preceded difficult negotiations that did not immediately lead to final agreements. Therefore, Trump’s message may primarily aim to shape positive market sentiment rather than indicate a completely finalized agreement.

Therefore, investors and traders in financial markets should anticipate further negotiations and detailed announcements from US and Chinese officials. Until a firm and solid agreement is reached, maintaining prudent risk management remains essential amid potentially volatile trade headlines.

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Platinum price succeeded to confirm surpassing the barrier at $983.00, activating the suggested bullish rally, to achieve the initial target by reaching $1002.00, the stability of the price above the breached barrier is required for taking advantage of the main indicators positivity, to attempt to record new gains by its rally towards 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at $1017.00.

The price decline below $983.00 and providing negative close will cancel the bullish suggestion, which forces the price to suffer several losses by reaching $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $990.00 and $1017.00

Trend forecast: Bullish