Despite the weakness in the pair’s trading, its repeated stability above the additional support level at 213.50, combined with the Stochastics’ attempt to provide positive momentum, has led to the formation of some bullish waves, helping the pair maintain its position around 214.80.
We reiterate the importance of a breakout above the resistance level at 215.50, as this would allow the pair to form strong upward waves. In that case, the price is expected to be attracted initially toward 216.10 and then 216.65.
The expected trading range for today is between 214 and 216
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate struggled to gain traction on Thursday, with investor sentiment dented by lingering uncertainty in the Middle East.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3362, slightly lower on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) stood its ground against a majority of its peers on Thursday, as a broad wave of risk aversion fuelled demand for the safe-haven currency.
Escalating friction in the Middle East weighed heavily on market risk appetite following a second consecutive day of US airstrikes against Iran.
While this latest flare-up threatens to disrupt peace negotiations, media reports suggesting that diplomatic discussions are still quietly underway helped stabilise market sentiment. Ultimately, these rumours capped the ‘Greenback’ from advancing any further.
The increasingly risk-sensitive Pound (GBP) encountered headwinds amid the downbeat market sentiment on Thursday.
However, Sterling managed to avoid steep declines thanks to a retreat in UK government bond yields. Despite the geopolitical friction in the Middle East, energy commodities held relatively steady, which helped soothe worries within the bond market.
Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Growth Data in Focus
Looking ahead, Friday’s UK GDP release could drive movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate.
The British economy is expected to have shrunk by 0.1% in April. A contraction could revive concerns over the UK’s economic outlook, potentially denting demand for the Pound.
Such a result may also prompt investors to pare back Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets ahead of next week’s policy decision, placing further pressure on Sterling.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar could take direction from the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index. Economists expect morale to have improved in June, which may lend the ‘Greenback’ support.
Ongoing geopolitical anxiety could also buoy USD, particularly if tensions in the Middle East continue to keep investors wary.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
The US dollar has rallied slightly in the early part of the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see the USD jump against the Japanese yen. The question now is whether or not the Bank of Japan is going to intervene, as we are getting close to those levels they defended previously. This is essentially a swing high that dates back to the 1990 trading year, when we started seeing the dollar really fall.
30+ Year Rounding Bottom
We have formed a massive rounding bottom that goes back to that time period. At this juncture, if we were to break out to the upside, you could be talking about a move all the way back to the 225 yen level. That, for me, would be an ultra-long-term prediction, assuming that it even could come true. However, in the short term, I would anticipate that there will probably be a lot of questions asked about this general vicinity. This is an area that could determine what happens for the next several years if history tells us anything.
Most of the time, central bank intervention only temporarily slows down what the market wants. If we do pull back from here, the 160 yen level should be an area that could offer support; after that, we would look at the 50-day EMA, which is presiding right around the 159 yen level. If the Bank of Japan does choose to intervene, I think that’s great—it means a day or two later, I can start buying the dollar again and collecting swap (the interest rate differential) at the end of each trading session. I really don’t see how this pair doesn’t break out eventually. It might be noisy and choppy, but don’t sleep on this market.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1490 with a target of 1.1620 and a stop-loss at 1.1400
Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1680 with a target of 1.1480 and a stop-loss at 1.1750
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today
Investors are now focused on the European Central Bank’s decision today, Thursday, which could represent the next major test for the EUR/USD pair’s performance after the recent strong US jobs and inflation figures significantly impacted market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policies.
Across the best trading platforms, the Euro price fell against the US Dollar to the 1.1499 support level at the beginning of the trading week, before relatively recovering to 1.1575 yesterday. The pair failed to gain enough positive momentum to continue its rebound, as US inflation figures ultimately supported sellers in maintaining control over the trend.
What is expected from the ECB decisions today?
According to currency market trading, the single European currency has shown some nervousness ahead of the crucial ECB decision this Thursday. While the bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, the Euro’s weakness suggests markets are cautious that the central bank might adopt a dovish tone.
Ultimately, with a rate hike already anticipated, the tone and forward guidance regarding the probability of future hikes are what will determine the financial market’s reaction.
In general, money markets indicate that investors are prepared for at least one more rate hike in the coming months—specifically, pricing in an approximate 65% probability of additional tightening, equivalent to one and a half standard hikes.
Therefore, the European Central Bank (ECB) must confirm this expectation to maintain the euro’s stability. Given the euro’s decline prior to this event, we anticipate a “buy-on-this-expectation” reaction will be beneficial for the euro if the ECB clarifies that it sees a need to raise interest rates again.
Technical Outlook for EUR/USD Today:
According to performance on the daily timeframe, the overall trend for the EUR/USD pair remains firmly bearish, and stabilizing around and below the 1.1500 psychological support reinforces the sellers’ dominance. Technical indicators still have room to head toward lower support levels before reaching oversold conditions.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving near the 40 level, reflecting the continuation of negative momentum without having reached oversold territory yet. The MACD indicator shows a bearish bias, and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains below the 200-day SMA.
Conversely, an upside reversal scenario would only begin to take shape if the EUR/USD price rises to break above the 1.1700 resistance barrier once again.
The EUR/USD pair will be influenced today by the European Central Bank’s policy announcement and the release of key US economic data, including the Producer Price Index and weekly jobless claims.
Trading Advice:
EUR/USD price will remain within tight ranges until the market reacts to these high-impact, critical data releases and events, keeping in mind that selling pressures persist.
Despite the weakness in the pair’s trading, its repeated stability above the additional support level at 213.50, combined with the Stochastics’ attempt to provide positive momentum, has led to the formation of some bullish waves, helping the pair maintain its position around 214.80.
We reiterate the importance of a breakout above the resistance level at 215.50, as this would allow the pair to form strong upward waves. In that case, the price is expected to be attracted initially toward 216.10 and then 216.65.
The expected trading range for today is between 214 and 216
EUR/JPY gains ground for the fourth successive day, trading around 185.30 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The EUR/JPY cross is holding a constructive bias, with spot remaining above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA, hovering just above the medium-term line, suggests the broader uptrend remains intact after the recent pullback.
The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the EUR/JPY cross is moving within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 suggests neutral-to-positive momentum rather than overbought conditions.
The EUR/JPY cross may explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 187.80, followed by the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on April 17.
On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 185.24, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.07. A break below these averages would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the lower ascending channel boundary around 184.50. Further declines would expose the nearly four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by the six-month low of 180.81, reached on February 12.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.11%
-0.09%
-0.03%
-0.04%
0.03%
-0.07%
-0.18%
EUR
0.11%
0.02%
0.07%
0.06%
0.04%
0.07%
-0.06%
GBP
0.09%
-0.02%
0.06%
0.03%
0.04%
0.05%
-0.09%
JPY
0.03%
-0.07%
-0.06%
-0.02%
-0.06%
-0.04%
-0.14%
CAD
0.04%
-0.06%
-0.03%
0.02%
-0.03%
0.00%
-0.13%
AUD
-0.03%
-0.04%
-0.04%
0.06%
0.03%
0.03%
-0.12%
NZD
0.07%
-0.07%
-0.05%
0.04%
-0.00%
-0.03%
-0.13%
CHF
0.18%
0.06%
0.09%
0.14%
0.13%
0.12%
0.13%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate advanced on Wednesday, even after the latest US inflation figures showed price pressures continued to build.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3401, up approximately 0.2% from the start of the session.
The US Dollar (USD) struggled to attract meaningful support on Wednesday as investors assessed the latest US consumer inflation data.
Figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed headline inflation accelerated from 3.8% to 4.2% in May, reaching its highest level in over three years. Meanwhile, core inflation edged up from 2.8% to 2.9%.
While the data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a restrictive policy stance, the inflation figures matched market forecasts, limiting their impact on USD exchange rates.
With no major surprises in the report, many investors opted to hold back from placing aggressive bets on the ‘Greenback’.
The Pound (GBP) traded in a tight range through Wednesday’s session as the absence of notable UK economic releases left Sterling without a clear source of direction.
Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
At the same time, conditions in the UK bond market remained relatively calm. Gilt yields were broadly stable, helping to ease concerns over borrowing costs and removing a key driver of recent fluctuations in the currency.
As a result, Sterling was largely guided by external market forces rather than domestic developments.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Producer Prices and UK GDP in Focus
Attention now turns to the latter half of the week, where the latest US producer price index could provide fresh direction for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.
Economists expect factory-gate inflation to ease in May. If producer prices rise by less than anticipated, it may help cool expectations for future inflation and weigh on demand for the US Dollar.
For Sterling, the spotlight will fall on the UK’s latest GDP figures.
April’s growth reading is forecast to show the economy contracted by 0.1% month-on-month, reflecting the impact of ongoing disruption linked to the Middle East crisis. A weaker growth print could reduce expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will consider raising interest rates in the near term, potentially limiting support for the Pound.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
The USD/JPY pair extends its gains for the second straight day on Wednesday, drifting higher above the 160.00 threshold, in an intervention zone. Still, it remains shy of the year-to-date (YTD) high of 160.72 set on April 30, the same day the pair plunged nearly 500 pips amid the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) market intervention.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
USD/JPY recovered April’s 30 losses in 28 trading days, and despite momentum remaining bullish—as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—, fears that Japanese authorities could step in to push the pair lower are keeping buyers from testing the YTD high of 160.72, ahead of the 161.00 mark.
The RSI is bullish at 64, approaching overbought conditions, though its advance has been steady, an indication of traders’ caution.
On the downside, if USD/JPY drops below 160.00, the first support would be 159.50, followed by the June 3 low at 159.36. Below these levels, the next support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.95, followed by the 100-day SMA at 157.82.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.08%
-0.02%
0.05%
-0.12%
0.23%
0.07%
0.11%
EUR
0.08%
0.04%
0.13%
-0.08%
0.25%
0.14%
0.19%
GBP
0.02%
-0.04%
0.06%
-0.10%
0.24%
0.11%
0.14%
JPY
-0.05%
-0.13%
-0.06%
-0.19%
0.14%
0.00%
0.03%
CAD
0.12%
0.08%
0.10%
0.19%
0.33%
0.19%
0.22%
AUD
-0.23%
-0.25%
-0.24%
-0.14%
-0.33%
-0.14%
-0.10%
NZD
-0.07%
-0.14%
-0.11%
-0.00%
-0.19%
0.14%
0.03%
CHF
-0.11%
-0.19%
-0.14%
-0.03%
-0.22%
0.10%
-0.03%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The Euro rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session on Tuesday but has seen a little bit of pushback as the market continues to focus on a lot of headline risk coming out of the Middle East.
Keep in mind that the situation in the Middle East has a lot of people worried about energy inflation and that in and of itself could cause a bit of a problem for many countries, not the least of which would be Germany, which is a major driver of where the Euro’s going to go.
After all, the German industrial base is a major driver of European strength.
And if we continue to have issues, that will continue to plague the Euro. Furthermore, we continue to see economic numbers in the United States come out hotter than anticipated and that has a major influence on US dollar strength, at least in the short term.
Ultimately, I think this is a market that is doing everything it can to try to determine whether or not we will stay in the same range that we have been in for the better part of the year.
Long-Term Range and Core Levels
Overall, the 1.14 level continues to be a massive support level for the EUR/USD pair, while the 1.1850 level above continues to be a massive resistance level.
We are closer to the bottom, so some value hunting may occur here, and I think that’s what we’ve seen over the last couple of days.
However, most things favor the US dollar right now, not the least of which would be the uncertainty out there. So, I do think that rolling over makes sense, but if we could break above the 200-day EMA, that could change the overall attitude.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
The GBPJPY pair returned to settle near 214.50 level, affected by the attempt of providing bullish momentum by the main indicators, to delay the bearish corrective attempts temporarily, facing positive momentum will ease the mission of breaching the current barrier, to begin targeting some bullish stations by its rally towards the resistance at 215.50.
While the failure of the breach and holding below 214.50 will increase the chances of activating the corrective attempts, to target 213.50 level initially, attempting to break the barrier at 212.80 to find an exit for resuming the negative trend in the near and medium period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.00 and 215.20
