• The British Pound has fallen after initially trying to rally on Thursday against the US dollar in a remembrance of the overall range that we have been in.
• Quite frankly, this is a market that I think is probably just sitting still until we can figure out what to do with the next set of data.

Concerns of Recession, etc.

There are a lot of concerns about the United States heading into a recession. So, the non-farm payroll number on Friday will be a big deal. With that being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where it is probably only a matter of time before we come to some type of resolution. But the 1.32 level underneath is support at the moment with 1.3425 being resistance.

As we continue to go back and forth, I think it does suggest that we’re just waiting around. Keep in mind that interest rates in America have been climbing, so it’s not quite the interest rate play that it had been over multiple years. After all, for the longest time, you would just buy the British pound and short the US dollar. If we were to close on Friday below the 1.32 level, that could be the beginning of something important, just as a close above the 1.3450 level would be.

As things stand right now, it does look bullish, but it is worth noting that the area that we have been testing has been very important in the past. So, one would assume there’s a certain amount of market memory in this neighborhood and therefore it is going to take a lot of work to break out to the upside. Friday should be volatile, but Friday should also be very informational. So, pay attention to how we close for the session.

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• EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.1300 after a three-day slide.
• The near-term technical outlook is yet to highlight a buildup of bullish momentum.
• April Nonfarm Payrolls data from the US could trigger the next big action in the pair.

EUR/USD closed the third consecutive day in negative territory on Thursday and touched its weakest level in nearly three weeks below 1.1270. Although the pair stabilizes above 1.1300 in the European session on Friday, it remains fragile heading into the key April employment data release from the US.

The US Dollar (USD) ignored mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US and preserved its strength on Thursday, causing EUR/USD to stretch lower. The improving risk mood on growing optimism about a de-escalation in the US-China trade conflict helped the USD outperform its rivals. Bloomberg reported that China’s Commerce Ministry said that the US has taken the initiative to convey to China that the US is hoping to talk on trade.

In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the labor market data for April. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are forecast to rise 130,000 following the impressive 228,000 increase recorded in March. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

In case there is a significant negative surprise, with an NFP reading below 100,000, investors could see this as a sign pointing to a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in June and trigger a USD selloff. On the flip side, an upbeat NFP print could cause EUR/USD to turn south ahead of the weekend.

According go the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 42% probability that the Fed will maintain policy settings in June. This market positioning suggests that the USD faces a two-way risk heading into this event.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 50 despite the latest rebound. Additionally, EUR/USD continues to trade below the 50-period and the 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, pointing to a lack of buyer interest.

On the upside, 1.1370-1.1380 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as first resistance before 1.1430 (static level) and 1.1500 (static level, round level). Looking south, supports could be located at 1.1270 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.1175 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.1080 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).

Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.

And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.

And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500

Trend forecast: Bearish

May 2, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP to “Remain Firm” vs USD over 2025

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was unable to move above 1.3350 on Thursday and retreated to just below 1.3300 after the round of US data.

The releases were certainly soft, but markets had been braced for even weaker figures which helped trigger dollar short covering.

Scotiabank still considers that the overall tone is one of consolidation; “The trend is bullish, given the sequence of higher highs and higher lows since March. The RSI has softened somewhat, but waning momentum is not enough to violate the bull trend. For now, we highlight the recent range and GBPUSD’s movement roughly bound between the mid-1.32s and mid-1.34s.”

Confidence in the US economy remains fragile and the latest labour market data triggered some alarm. re were some concerns.

Initial jobless claims increased to 241,000 in the latest week from 223,000 previously while continuing claims jumped to 1.92mn from 1.83mn in the previous week and the highest level since November 2021.

There was, however, some relief surrounding the business confidence data.

The ISM manufacturing index edged lower to 48.7 for April from 49.0 previously, but this was above consensus forecasts of 47.9.

The production index hit the lowest level since May 2020, but new orders and employment declined at slightly slower rates for the month.

The monthly jobs report is due on Friday.

According to MUFG; “A much weaker nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow poses the main downside risk for the US dollar‘s recent tentative rebound.”

ING added; “The reduction in dollar risk premium may have a little further to go, but may run into the bearish headwind of US data.”

Scotiabank also notes the importance of data; “The sharp decline seen in the USD so far suggests this may not be a “typical” year for the USD but persistence in the soft USD tone would fit with the outlook for slower growth, lower corporate earnings and continued diversification away from the USD in the next few months.”

UBS does see the risk of a more substantial GBP/USD correction; “We expect the pound to remain firm against the U.S. dollar over the course of the year, though some short-term setbacks may occur following the recent rally.”

UK data was mixed with the PMI manufacturing index remaining in contraction territory while there was a jump in March consumer lending ahead of the Stamp Duty changes.

Rabobank is cautious over the UK growth outlook. A growth agenda is a good thing, but the British government’s history of announcing grand strategies with much fanfare and little follow-through casts a long shadow.

There are strong expectations of a Bank of England rate cut next week and Rabobank noted the potential for more dovish guidance given concerns over the growth outlook.

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Dollar Forecasts

• USD/JPY posts a fresh almost three-week high around 145.00 as the Japanese Yen underperforms.
• The BoJ left interest rates steady at 0.5% and indicated a delay in plans of hiking interest rates further.
• The US Dollar surrenders some of its initial gains ahead of US Manufacturing PMI data.

The USD/JPY pair surges almost 0.8% to near 144.80 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicating delay in plans of more interest rate hikes.

Earlier in the day, the BoJ kept interest rates steady at 0.5%, as expected, but expressed that additional tariffs imposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump on April 2 could hit the domestic economy and inflation.

We will enter a period in which both inflation and wage growth will likely slow somewhat. But we expect a positive cycle of rising wages and inflation to continue due to a severe labour shortage,” BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in the press conference, Reuters reported.

Additionally, the BoJ has cut Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for fiscal year ending March 2026 significantly to 0.5% from prior estimates of 1.1%.

Meanwhile, US Dollar (USD) gives up some of its intraday gains ahead of the US final S&P Global and Manufacturing PMI data for April, which will be published in the North American session.

USD/JPY extends its recovery to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 144.00. The pair started recovering after attracting bids near the 21-month low around 140.00.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises into the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the bearish momentum is over. However, the downside bias is intact.

The odds of the pair extending its recovery towards the March 11 low of 146.54 and the April 9 high of 148.28 would increase if it will break above the key resistance of 145.00.

The asset would face downside move towards the 28 July 2023 low of 138.00 and the 14 July 2023 of 137.25 after sliding below the September 16 low of 139.58.

USD/JPY daily chart

• I have often noted and recommended buying the US dollar against the Japanese yen from every downward level.
• For three consecutive trading sessions, the USD/JPY currency pair has been recovering, stabilizing around the resistance level of 144.65 at the time of writing the analysis, recovering from its strong losses that reached the support level of 139.88, the pair’s lowest in seven months.
• Earlier today, the Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy decision to keep interest rates unchanged for the time being, as expected.
• However, the central bank lowered its growth forecasts for this year and next, raising doubts about further tightening.

Bank of Japan Keeps Rates Unchanged as Expected

Today’s decision was clear: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% at its May meeting, maintaining its highest level since 2008 and in line with market expectations. This unanimous decision came amid growing concerns that US President Trump’s tariff measures could weaken both US and global economic growth.

Tokyo is currently negotiating a trade agreement with Washington, which could affect future policy moves. Furthermore, the Japanese board had indicated it would raise interest rates if economic and price forecasts were realized. In its quarterly forecasts, the BoJ lowered its forecast for Japan’s fiscal year 2025 GDP growth to 0.5% from the 1.0% expected in January, citing trade risks and political uncertainty. The growth forecast for 2026 was also lowered to 0.7% from 1.0%. Also, the BoJ cut its core inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 from 2.7% to 2.2% and expects it to fall further to 1.7% in fiscal year 2026 before rising to 1.9% in fiscal year 2027.

Meanwhile, overall inflation is expected to remain around 2% through the end of the fiscal year ending March 2028.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp website follower, we still prefer buying the US dollar against the Japanese yen from every downward level, but without risk and distributing trades across several entry levels.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

Dear Reader, according to recent trading, the USD/JPY pair appears to be experiencing a notable recovery after reaching its low of 139.85 in April. The USD/JPY pair has achieved a bullish breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 144.24 and is currently trading at 144.60. The pair’s price shows a clear rebound from its April lows, forming a series of higher lows and higher highs since mid-April. This structure suggests that buyers have regained market momentum after the sharp decline from the 151.34 area seen in previous months.

The Fibonacci retracement levels, drawn from the recent swing high to swing low, represent key reference points. With the price breaking above the 38.2% level (144.24), attention now turns to the 50% retracement level at 145.60, which could be the next resistance target. Above that, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 146.95 will represent a significant hurdle for bulls. Looking at the moving averages, both are sloping downwards, indicating that the long-term trend remains bearish despite the recent recovery. The price will need to break above these dynamic resistance levels to confirm a more sustainable reversal.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators are showing strong bullish signals. The Stochastic indicator has crossed above the 50 level and is approaching the overbought zone, indicating strong buying pressure. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending upward and is currently near 60, reflecting increasing bullish momentum without yet reaching overbought territory. If the USD/JPY pair continues its upward trend, the 50% Fibonacci level will be the next key resistance to watch. Conversely, failure to hold above the 38.2% level could see the pair retest support near the April lows.

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Ethereum price (ETHUSD) rose in its last intraday trading, settled above the resistance at $1.800, to move in its way to confirm breaching this stubborn resistance, and we are still waiting for a good close above it, while the continuation of the positive support due to its trading above EMA50, with the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI).

Therefore, our expectations suggest (ETHUSD) price rise in their upcoming trading on the intraday levels, conditioned by its stability above $1,800, to target the next main resistance at $1,900.

The expected trading range for today is between $1,750 support and $1,865 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bullish

• For two consecutive trading sessions, the British pound has retreated from its recent highs against the US dollar, but this weakness is likely temporary.
• The GBP/USD price is stabilizing around the support level of 1.3278 at the time of writing the analysis, giving up the gains of the sharp upward shift that reached the resistance level of 1.3444.
• According to licensed trading platforms, the US dollar’s value has risen, and stock markets declined during mid-week trading as investors questioned the weak US GDP report that showed an economic contraction in the first quarter (-0.2% quarter-on-quarter)

US Dollar Stronger Despite Economic Recession

According to Forex market trading, the US dollar has recovered despite the announcement of a US economic recession. As announced, this was its first decline in three years, disappointing markets that had expected a stable reading after the fourth-quarter 2024 reading of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. According to economic experts, stagflation concerns were reinforced by yesterday’s data, which showed an unexpected contraction in US GDP during the first quarter, alongside a surprisingly large jump in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices.

At the same time, the disappointment was reflected in the S&P 500 stock index, which is trading lower today along with other major US exchanges. In 2025, the dollar and US stocks have tended to decline together, meaning the US dollar’s rise is surprising and raises questions about whether the dollar is regaining its safe-haven status. It is too early to say for sure, as today is the last day of the month, and end-of-month and quarter flows are likely to affect the market. Currency analysts have indicated that the US dollar is expected to rise.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp follower, keep in mind that the British pound will remain supported by positive sentiment and the good performance of financial markets.

The dollar’s strength also suggests that the US GDP data was not as bad as the headline decline indicates, given some large distortions caused by importers anticipating Trump’s tariffs.

Will GBP/USD Rise in the Coming Days?

Recently, the US dollar’s rally has seen the GBP/USD exchange rate fall further from its three-year high of 1.3444. When it reached this level on Tuesday, we had warned of a strong horizontal resistance level that could cause a setback for the pound. This resistance has proven its strength, and the GBP/USD decline extends below the 1.33 support level. For now, strategists are maintaining a “buy the dip” mentality.

Technical Analysis for the GPB/USD pair today:

On the technical indicator front, according to the performance on the daily timeframe chart, the 14-day RSI is heading towards the midline, confirming the start of downward shifts awaiting more momentum, while the MACD is at the beginning of a downward shift. The performance of GBP/USD today will be affected by the announcement of the UK Manufacturing PMI and Net Lending to Individuals in Britain at 11:30 AM Egypt time. Later, US economic releases will follow, with the US weekly jobless claims announced at 01:30 PM Egypt time, and then the ISM Manufacturing PMI reading at 05:00 PM Egypt time.

In addition, investor sentiment regarding risk appetite will also influence the performance of the British pound against the US dollar in the coming trading hours.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has shot higher as the Bank of Japan meeting has come and gone. The 145 yen level is an area that I think a lot of people will be paying attention to, and we did, in fact, see some resistance there. Nonetheless, this is looking more and more like a market that is trying to get away from the yen, and you definitely see that in other currencies as well. If we can get a daily close above the 145 level, then I think you have the makings of a massive double bottom that goes back to September of 2024. Short-term pullbacks would be expected, and I do expect a lot of noise here, considering that we have the jobs number coming out on Friday as well.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar continues to chop back and forth right around the 0.64 level. Quite frankly, I just don’t think it has anywhere to be right now as it struggles with the 200-day EMA. It’s got a lot of inertia to digest here, and maybe that’s all we’re doing. But the longer we stay here without some type of upward trajectory, the more likely it is we do break down. As things stand right now, though, in the Australian dollar, you have to remain somewhat neutral.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.