The GBPUSD declined in its recent intraday trading, with the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), which caused the loss of the previous positive momentum, and that led it to break a minor bullish bias line that represents a dynamic support for the price of recent trading.

The pressure increased with surpassing the support of EMA50, which is considered as an extra confirmation for the weakness of the previous bullish trend, and the price move to a clear correctional station that threatens for more downside moves, especially after losing technical support that might limit the negative momentum.

Therefore, our expectations suggest more of the downside movement for the GBPUSD price in its upcoming intraday trading, if the price settles below 1.3345, to target the critical support at 1.3230.

The expected trading range is between 1.3270 support and 1.3365 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bearish

Copper price activated the negative attack, achieving some of the negative targets by hitting $4.4560, to bounce to settle near the moving average 55 at the $4.5600 level, attempting to gather more of the negative momentum in the current period trading.

Forming extra barrier at 50% Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600, increasing the chances for resuming the negative scenario, to repeat the pressure on $4.4500 level, and breaking it might extend the losses towards $4.3100, to form the next main target for the negative trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.3100 and $4.6100

Trend forecast: Bearish

May 1, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Weakens Against Stronger Dollar Despite Downbeat US GDP

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate softened on Wednesday after the release of the US’s latest GDP data and core PCE price index.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3348, down roughly 0.5% from the start of Wednesday’s session.

On Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) managed to climb against most of its peers, despite the release of two economic data points that fell short of forecasts.

First, the latest US GDP reading dropped from 2.4% to -0.3%, well below the expected 0.3%, ramping up concerns about a potential US recession.

Later, the core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, cooled from 3% to 2.6%, in line with market expectations, which led to increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Despite these economic indicators, the Dollar maintained its strength and gained ground against the majority of its counterparts.

On Wednesday, the Pound (GBP) struggled to attract buyers and lost ground against several major currencies amid a lull in UK economic data.

The decline in Sterling was mainly fuelled by growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) at their upcoming policy meeting next week.

As markets are now almost entirely pricing in a 25 basis-point interest rate cut, Sterling had little to no positive economic factors to bolster its performance, making it challenging for the currency to gain traction with investors.

Looking ahead to Thursday, the main driver of movement for the Pound US exchange rate will likely be the release of some US economic data.

The US is set to publish its latest ISM manufacturing PMI data for April, which is forecast to dip further into contraction territory (a reading below 50).

If the data meets these expectations, the USD could weaken as we approach the end of the week.

For the Pound, the UK economic calendar will remain sparse for the remainder of the week, meaning GBP exchange rates are likely to be influenced by broader market sentiment.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

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April 30, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecasts Revised to 1.15 (from 1.04) at HSBC

After surging to 3-year highs above 1.1550, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has been in corrective mode with buying below 1.1300.

US economic concerns have increased, although the dollar has demonstrated some resilience in global markets. There will be some impact from month-end trading during the day which may mask underlying trends.

Scotiabank commented; “The latest period of consolidation has not yet violated the bullish trend, as this would require a break below the mid-1.12s. The softening RSI is worrisome however, and hints at waning momentum. Near-term support is expected around 1.1300 and near-term resistance is expected above 1.1500.”

HSBC has revised its end-2025 EUR/USD forecast to 1.15 from 1.04 previously.

According to the bank; “cyclical, political and structural debates prompting us to abandon our dollar bullish journey. New FX forecasts entail a weaker USD; it will take time before we want to get back on board.”

According to ING; “While the data flow should continue to prove a net-negative, markets are clearly welcoming Trump’s efforts to ease some tariff pain. We still believe that a constant flow of constructive news on trade (especially regarding China) is needed to keep equities and the dollar supported, but for now, it might be enough to let the dollar stabilise into Friday’s payrolls.”

MUFG expects the Wall Street performance will be important with sharp US losses on Wednesday; “the price action in equities indicates recession is not anticipated and if the data points in that direction, which we believe is likely, then equities are unlikely to hold these levels.”

It added; “Renewed risk-off in equities combined with falling front-end yields as Fed rate cuts become more likely will only reinforce the downside momentum for the dollar.”

The latest ADP data reported an increase in private payrolls of 62,000 for April compared with consensus forecasts of around 115,000 while the March increase was revised slightly lower to 147,000 from the flash reading of 155,000.

ADP chief economist Dr. Nela Richardson commented; “Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”

MUFG commented; “There is compelling evidence now that the US labour market is set to deteriorate although whether that will be evident as soon as in the NFP data for April to be released on Friday is less clear.”

US GDP for the first quarter of 2025 was estimated at an annualised -0.3% compared with the previous figure of 2.4%.

Consumer spending was positive at 1.8% from 4.0% previously while investment posted a significant gain.

There was, however, a surge in imports ahead of the imposition of tariffs and this was the key element pushing the economy into contraction territory while government spending also edged lower.

ING commented; “We suspect personal spending figures may not look that grim, and that the dollar can show some resilience to a negative GDP print today.”

According to Scotiabank the overall dollar performance has been disappointing; “The USD has not benefited in an obvious way from anticipated month-end flows which may be another sign of trouble if that absence of demand reflects foreign investors choosing not to adjust hedges after the past month’s swings in US asset markets where US fixed income especially has underperformed.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Euro Dollar Forecasts

Created on April 30, 2025

• The British pound pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as we are hanging around the 1.34 level.
• The 1.34 level has been important more than once.
• And I think at this point in time, it does make a certain amount of sense that we see a lot of back and forth.
• The market is starting to suggest that maybe they could break out to the upside. This is what momentum over the last few months may suggest, but we have work to do.

And the candlestick from the Monday session was rather impressive. That suggests that we have the ability to eventually break out to the upside and maybe even go as high as the 1.3675 level where we had a resistance barrier. On the other hand, this is an area that has been important multiple times in the past. And if we pull back from here, it’s likely that we could drop down pretty nastily. The 1.32 level I think is support though. So, it’s really not until we break down below there that I would start shorting.

US Dollar Under Attack Overall

Keep in mind that the US dollar of course has been under attack by multiple currencies at the moment and the British pound does seem to be seeing a lot of inflows still despite the fact that it is most certainly overbought. I like the idea of attempting a long in this GBP/USD currency pair on either a break above the highs of the last couple of days or a pullback in a bounce, especially near the 1.32 level.

If we break below the 1.32 level and we see the U S dollar strengthening against other currencies as well, then it’s time to start selling. In that environment, we may have seen a complete shift in sentiment.

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Created on April 30, 2025

• The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday but has given back most of the gains.
• By doing so, this suggests that we are in fact going to continue to see a lot of hesitation.
• I do think that we are still in the midst of trying to form some type of supportive of basing pattern, especially as the ¥140 level seems to be a bit of an epicenter for support.
• Area that I think will remember the previous attempt to break down the road, so I do think that it is an epicenter of importance.

Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to pay close attention to the overall tariff situation, which Japan is a major player when it comes to global trade. The Americans and the Japanese are getting fairly close to some type of deal from what we are hearing in the news, so that could have a major influence on what happens next. All things being equal, if we were to break down below the ¥140 level, that would probably end up being a very negative turn of events.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this USD/JPY pair is rather negative, but you can also make an argument that the ¥140 level is so supportive that you at least have to start to look for the idea of forming a basing pattern, which is the beginning of turning this whole thing around. If we were to break higher, there are multiple areas that I would be concerned about if I were long, starting with the ¥144 level, followed by the 50 Day EMA near the ¥146.75.

I do believe that this will probably end up being a very noisy market that is choppy and difficult, so be aware of the fact that we could see some issues hanging onto positions for a lot of traders. Position sizing will be crucial as usual, and therefore you need to be aware of your size as well.

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Created on April 30, 2025

• The Euro was a bit negative during the trading session on Tuesday. Again, as we continue to see a lot of back and forth.
• The back and forth of course is a sign that the market is trying to work off some of that excess froth.
• At this point, the 1.15 level is a major resistance barrier. And if we can break above there, then it really sends the market much higher.

Underneath we have the 1.13 level is a significant support level. And therefore, I think we’re just kind of stuck in this range. And the fact that we are trying to work off some of the excess buying pressure and basically absorb all of that momentum is not a surprise.

Don’t Forget the Non-Farm Payroll Announcement on Friday

And you have to recognize the fact that Friday is non-farm payroll, so that has a major influence as well. Ultimately, this is a market that I think we are going to continue to see a lot of indecision. So if you are a short-term trader, this might be the market for you going back and forth with a range-bound system. By the end of the week, we might get some resolution. But I would say this, if we break back below the 1.12 level, I think that unravels the entire narrative at the moment, and we probably go lower.

On a move above the recent highs, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 1.18 level, but it may take some time to get there. After all, EUR/USD is a pair that spends a lot of time doing very little under normal circumstances, although admittedly, we are not normal circumstances at the moment. Back and forth, I think, is where we’re going.

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The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negativity on the moving average 55 by forming an extra barrier at 191.55, which forces it to provide more of the sideways trading, to fluctuate near the support at 190.50.

Noting that stochastic exit from the overbought level might increase the negative pressures, which forces the price to break the current support, to confirm its return to the bearish track, to suffer several losses by reaching 189.70 and 188.60, while confirming the bullish scenario needs a clear breach to 191.55, and holding above it to begin achieving gains, which might be near 192.40 reaching 193.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negativity on the moving average 55 by forming an extra barrier at 191.55, which forces it to provide more of the sideways trading, to fluctuate near the support at 190.50.

Noting that stochastic exit from the overbought level might increase the negative pressures, which forces the price to break the current support, to confirm its return to the bearish track, to suffer several losses by reaching 189.70 and 188.60, while confirming the bullish scenario needs a clear breach to 191.55, and holding above it to begin achieving gains, which might be near 192.40 reaching 193.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways