The GBPJPY pair failed to confirm breaching the barrier at 191.55 yesterday, affected by the moving average 55 above it, which forces it to form sideways trading, to be confined between this barrier and the support level at 190.50.

Monitoring the price behavior and waiting for its rally above the barrier, to increase the efficiency of the bullish track, targeting 192.40 level, reaching the next target near 193.15, while reaching below the support will cancel the positive suggestion to force the price suffer several losses, starting at 189.70 and 188.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

April 28, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK EUR/USD Outlook: Is Euro to Dollar Rate Forecast to Challenge on 1.15?

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has consolidated around 1.1350 ahead of a big week for US data.

The dollar has managed to stabilise in global markets, but sentiment remains cautious.

According to ING; “Hard data to determine dollar’s next move.”

It added; “The worst case for EUR/USD is probably 1.1250, should US data surprise on the upside. 1.1500 is the risk, should any of this week’s job releases suggest that tariff uncertainty has already triggered layoffs.”

On a longer-term view, Goldman Sachs has a 12-month target of 1.20.

US data will be watched closely this week, especially jobs-related releases.

According to HSBC; “Some high-frequency US data for April already point to a bleak picture.”

It added; “Given the steep drop in US survey/soft data, we’d be very surprised if it doesn’t spill over into hard data at all.”

Trade talks will also continue to be watched very closely.

Caution is likely to prevail in the short term, especially if Administration rhetoric does not appear to match reality.

Late on Friday, President Trump stated that Chinese President Xi had called, but this was denied with Beijing stating that there had been no trade negotiations.

According to Bank of America; “USD could depreciate faster if trade negotiations fail. De-escalation in the trade war and re-focus on pro-growth policies could help the USD recover, but we would not expect risk premium to fully vanquish any time soon.”

It added; “US trade policies and the surrounding uncertainty are bad for Europe, but worse for the US. We still think risks are we think skewed toward more EUR strength from potential European reforms and the EU pushing for trade deals elsewhere, assuming no EU-US trade escalation.

Nordea maintains a bearish stance; “Trump’s plan to deglobalise the US from the rest of the world presents a significant risk to the economy and financial market that is in danger of hurting investor confidence and trust which would be bad news for the dollar.”

Goldman Sachs notes that the Administration has dialled back tariff rhetoric.

It added; “However, after frequent changes in policy positions, we think it will take some time for investors to be convinced. Just as importantly, even after the exemptions and reversals, planned and actual tariff increases are still very large, and US businesses and consumers may be frozen by the uncertainty, which remains high and is why our economists are still on recession watch.”

Goldman also expects longer-term capital shifts; “We view the evidence that some investors have sold or hedged a portion of their Dollar assets largely as confirmation that they are unlikely to be adding to those positions with the same enthusiasm as before. Historically, these types of changes in investor appetite led to large, persistent changes in exchange rates.”

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The Pound to Euro exchange rate opened the new week near fortnight highs and could have scope to climb further to around 1.18 in the days ahead, as Roxette sings “Listen to Your Heart,” and Sterling makes a start on a journey that might ultimately see it back around 1.20 over the coming months.

GBP/EUR recovered to multi-week highs around 1.17 last week as EUR/USD receded from some of its best levels since November 2021 and with the latter pair perhaps set to take a further dip into the market’s very own Pool of Bethesda, Sterling may have scope to rise further toward 1.18 up ahead.

“We are also introducing changes in some of our other forecasts. More specifically, we are bringing our EURGBP forecasts marginally higher, reflecting the stronger EUR, without, however, changing our bullish GBP view directionally,” says the research team at Barclays, in a Sunday note.

“We have recommended longs in GBPCHF as a way to capture a further normalisation in the VIX with limited downside risk due to more-active SNB pushback on CHF appreciation,” they add, after lowering their second-quarter GBP/EUR forecast slightly, to 1.19.

The anticipation of an eventual climb toward 1.20 assumes a continued, gradual and orderly decline of the US Dollar that would help to lift EUR/USD to 1.20 over the next three-to-six months, and GBP/USD back to around 1.44.

Above: GBP/EUR shown at daily intervals with Fibonacci retracements highlighting possible resistances. Click image for closer inspection.

“Given that some BoE hawks [have talked] of trade dumping as being potentially disinflationary we would be mindful of a graduated uptick in June MPC pricing, from the current 11bps,” ”says Jeremy Stretch European head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets.

“Despite the immediate retail beat we would maintain a cautious EUR/GBP upside bias, only a weekly close below 0.8519 [above 1.1798 in GBP/EUR} would negate looking for a return towards the 21 April high,” he adds in a Friday note to clients.

There is no meaningful data out in the UK or Euro Area this week, however, Sterling showed resilience last week when the S&P Global Composite PMI survey index fell sharply for April, to a level sometimes consistent with recession.

The above is admittedly a wild forecast, and somewhat contrary to popular opinion so in entertaining it, readers might like to just “Listen to your Heart,” as that’s what the biblical covenant says to do.  

Above: Roxette, Listen to Your Heart. Source: Youtube. 

Meanwhile, the euro was supported by a better-than-expected German Ifo survey suggesting an improvement in confidence among small businesses, and some favourable comments from European Central Bank officials.

“We raise our GBPUSD forecast and now see the pairing edging higher towards 1.39 at the end of our forecast horizon,” strategists at UBS say, in a Friday note.

“With US policy risks persisting and European fundamentals improving, EURUSD is likely to remain supported, with the balance of risks favoring further euro strength,” they add.

The outlook is largely a function of how Sterling and the Euro each trade against the Dollar, which was tipped by the UBS team on Friday to help lift EUR/USD to 1.18, implying they think GBP/EUR will likely trade around 1.1779 over the coming year.

Bonus Song: Florence and the Machine Rabbit Heart. Source: Youtube. 

Created on April 28, 2025

• Recently, equity markets have once again helped to support the British pound against other major currencies.
• According to stock market trading, the UK’s FTSE 100 index has already risen for the past nine trading sessions, coinciding with easing trade war tensions, marking its longest winning streak since December 2019.
• The crucial question for Forex currency investors is whether upcoming UK data, global developments next week, and the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting results on May 8th could trigger a reversal in recent market trends.
• The GBP/USD price is stabilizing around the resistance level of 1.3320 at the time of writing this analysis.

Expected Bank of England Policies

If the Bank of England remains cautious about interest rate cuts and risk appetite declines, the British pound could benefit. Recently, UK economic data results were mixed on Friday, with stronger-than-expected retail sales data offset by a further decline in consumer confidence. According to the economic calendar data results, retail sales volumes rose by 0.4% for March, compared to the consensus forecast of a 0.3% decline, although the February increase was revised down to 0.7% from the original reading of 1.0%. favourable weather boosted demand for clothing and outdoor product sales, which was partly offset by a fall in supermarket sales.

First-quarter sales rose by 1.6% compared to the final quarter of 2024, the strongest increase since July 2021. According to Forex market trading, the British pound is taking some comfort from this. We wouldn’t overstate it, but it has performed well and was threatening to roll over, and it has received some support from the data, temporarily at least. On another front, doubts remain about the sustainability of spending. The UK GfK consumer confidence index fell to -23 for April from -19 previously, slightly worse than the -21 forecast, its lowest level since November 2023, with all components declining during the month.

Trading Tips:

The British pound continues to benefit significantly against other major currencies from Britain’s avoidance of US tariffs.

Will the GBP/USD Price Rise? And Where To?

According to trusted trading platforms, the GBP/USD exchange rate rose to test a three-year high of around 1.3430 before retreating slightly. With the recent decline, some currency market experts have lowered their foreign exchange market forecasts, as the dominant theme in the markets has been the increasing political turmoil in the United States, caused by escalating trade tensions, which has led to increased fears of a US recession. In the longer term, structural challenges, such as US political shifts, the trade war, and capital flight from US assets, point to a significant decline in the value of the US dollar.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to reliable trading platforms, the GBP/USD exchange rate rose to test its highest levels in three years at around 1.3430 before a limited pullback. With the recent decline, some currency market experts lowered their foreign exchange market forecasts, as the dominant theme in the markets was increasing political turmoil in the United States, stemming from escalating trade tensions, leading to growing fears of a US recession. In the longer term, structural challenges, such as US political shifts, the trade war, and capital moving away from US assets, point to a significant decline in the value of the US dollar.

They remain cautious about the UK’s economic outlook, but the sharp decline in the dollar has led to a strong revision in the forecast for the British pound. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is now expected to rise to the 1.39 resistance level on a 12-month forecast, from 1.31 previously. The forecasts are driven by a high degree of uncertainty, as investors now face multiple scenarios and forecasts based on how tariff policy develops, all of which hinge on President Trump’s decisions.

Therefore, the easiest option for investors now is to reduce exposure to the US dollar and US assets in general, and reassess when developments allow more certainty about the outlook.

Regarding the British pound, the Bank of England is expected to adhere to a cautious stance; we also believe that the market is pricing in a much larger amount of monetary easing than will actually be implemented, which provides support for the pound as expectations are reassessed. Accordingly, we expect some gains for the pound against a weaker US dollar, but it may struggle to improve significantly against the euro at present.

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Created on April 28, 2025

• For five consecutive trading sessions, the USD/JPY currency pair has been attempting to rebound upwards, but its gains have not exceeded the resistance level of 144.02 before stabilizing around the 143.80 level at the time of writing this analysis.
• The pair is awaiting strong catalysts to continue its movement within an ascending channel, attempting to break out of the stronger bearish trend that pushed the USD/JPY price to the support level of 139.88, the pair’s lowest in months.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Easing Tensions:

According to Forex market trading, the USD/JPY price continued its upward rebound path as the US dollar’s value rose amid receding global trade tensions. Last week, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held a closed-door meeting on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring meetings in Washington. While Kato remained silent on the discussions, he emphasized that Japan and the United States would continue close and constructive dialogue on exchange rates, hinting that currency issues could be part of broader trade negotiations.

Senior Japanese trade negotiator, Hirose Akazawa, is also scheduled to visit Washington this week for a second round of bilateral talks. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its interest rate steady at 0.5% this week as it monitors the potential impact of US tariffs on the export-driven Japanese economy.

Trading Tips:

I still recommend buying the US dollar against the Japanese yen at every downward trend level, but without risk, while monitoring the factors influencing currency rates.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

At the end of last week’s trading and in the short term, the USD/JPY pair rebounded from the trendline support level at around 142.48 to trade at around 143.80. The pair is trading within an ascending channel. The USD/JPY pair has now advanced to trade above the 100-hour moving average by a few levels. As a result, the pair is approaching entering overbought levels on the 14-hour RSI. Therefore, bulls will aim to extend the current gains towards the resistance at 144.30 and then to the resistance at 145.00. Conversely, bears will seek to capitalize on renewed profit-taking selling at the support level around 143.20 or lower at the support of 142.50.

In the long term, based on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading within a descending channel. However, the 14-day RSI has recently rebounded to avoid entering an oversold condition. Therefore, bulls will seek to extend their current rebound towards resistance at 146.00 or higher, reaching resistance at 149.00, respectively. On the other hand, and over the same period of time, bears will seek to take profits at the support level of 141.00 and then at the support level of 139.00, respectively.

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Created on April 28, 2025

• You can see that the Euro initially pulled back a bit against the US dollar but turned around to show signs of life again.
• By doing so, this shows that perhaps we have the ability to get back to the 1.15 level.
• The area looks like a range just waiting to form between the 1.12 level and the 1.15 level, as the market is trying to digest some of those massive gains from the past.

I do believe that the market’s overbought, so sideways action makes more sense than not, and it’s also likely to be a scenario where things are very noisy, and the latest Twitter spat might cause a move, at least with certain players such as President Donald Trump.

The Levels to Watch Matter More with This Price Action

If the EUR/USD pair were to break down below the 1.12 level, then it’s likely that we could drop down to the 50 day EMA right around the 1.0965 level. On the other hand, if we were to break above the 1.16 level, then it’s possible that the market could go to the 1.23 level, an area on the longer term charts that matter.

As things stand right now, it looks more or less like a buy on the dip type of situation, but ultimately, we are more likely than not going to see a lot of sideways action, at least in the meantime, until we get a better read on where the global economy is going, central banks, obviously, and of course, what the trade tariff situation ends up being. I don’t think this is an easy trade in either direction, but you have to think that this does suggest that we have a lot of noise in the process to find a new trend in general.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Copper price provided slow trading recently, due to the contradiction between the main indicators, to delay the negative attack and settles near $4.7500 level, reminding you that the bearish scenario will remain valid by the continuation of forming main barrier at $4.9100 against the current trading, which increases the chances for forming bearish waves to press on 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600, and breaking it will extend the losses towards $4.5600, to face the moving average55.

The price rally above the mentioned barrier and holding above it, will confirming delaying the negative attack, and provide chances for recording some extra gains before reaching the previously waited negative targets.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8400

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price provided slow trading recently, due to the contradiction between the main indicators, to delay the negative attack and settles near $4.7500 level, reminding you that the bearish scenario will remain valid by the continuation of forming main barrier at $4.9100 against the current trading, which increases the chances for forming bearish waves to press on 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600, and breaking it will extend the losses towards $4.5600, to face the moving average55.

The price rally above the mentioned barrier and holding above it, will confirming delaying the negative attack, and provide chances for recording some extra gains before reaching the previously waited negative targets.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8400

Trend forecast: Bearish

April 27, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Week Ahead Forecast: Overvalued Sterling “Vulnerable to Correction”

Foreign exchange analysts at Danske Bank now forecast the Pound Sterling (GBP) will slide to 1.1365 against the Euro (EUR) on a 12-month view amid a persistent slide in global risk appetite.

In contrast, Credit Agricole, expects Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate gains to 1.2050 by the end of 2025 with the Euro overvalued.

During the week, GBP/EUR was able to secure a tentative net gain to 2-week highs near 1.1730. Risk conditions were more benign during the week which helped underpin Sterling.

According to Credit Agricole; “we note that our estimates of short-term fair value that are based on FX drivers like relative rate spreads and risk aversion suggest that the GBP is looking quite undervalued vs the EUR.”

It added; “the very overvalued EUR/GBP could remain vulnerable to a correction lower in the near term.”

ING commented that there will be scope for further GBP/EUR gains if it can break above 1.1730.

The Pound will tend to gain support if there is a further improvement in confidence, but any renewed setback would put the currency under renewed pressure.

Danske Bank commented; “The key risk to seeing EUR/GBP trade substantially higher than our forecast is a sharp sell-off in global risk and/or renewed focus on the UK’s fragile fiscal position.”

MUFG noted the importance of safe-haven demand and noted; “the recent divergence in TWI performances for EUR and GBP with EUR supported by safe-haven demand that GBP is unlikely to see.”

Danske expanded its analysis; “While we see domestic factors and the relative growth outlook between the UK and the euro area as GBP positives, we think the global investment environment will be in the driver’s seat for EUR/GBP in the coming months.”

It added; “An investment environment characterised by elevated uncertainty, widening credit spreads and a positive correlation to a USD negative environment, in our view, favours a weaker GBP. The UK runs a large current-account deficit, which makes GBP vulnerable when capital inflows fade.”

As far as monetary policy is concerned, there are very strong expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by a further 25 basis points to 4.25%.

In comments this week, Governor Bailey expressed concerns over the global growth outlook due to trade tariffs, but there are also inflation concerns which will make policy setting notably difficult.

Caution would help underpin the Pound on yield grounds.

MUFG commented; “While a 25bp cut at the next MPC meeting on 8th May is highly likely and fully priced, further cuts beyond could quickly be questioned if supply-side issue create inflationary pressures in the UK. Much stickier wage growth could force the BoE into a more cautious approach to rate cuts given fiscal uncertainties and Gilt market concerns.”

There has been dovish commentary from ECB officials with Governing Council member Rehn, for example, stating that the ECB should not rule out a larger 50bp rate cut if the conditions supported a bigger move.

There are expectations that there will be a further rate cut in June.

MUFG added; “Disinflation and the demand shock are the focus underlining rate cut prospects.”

Credit Agricole noted that Euro gains will curb Euro-Zone growth and put downward pressure on inflation.

It added; we believe a continuation of the recent EUR strength could be self-defeating as it would increase the risk of a more dovish ECB pivot.

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April 27, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: RSI Firmly Bullish, Resistance Closer to 1.34

In view of sharp dollar losses, most investment banks have dropped their forecasts for sustained Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) losses.

Danske Bank and UBS both now have 12-month GBP/USD forecasts of 1.39.

Standard Chartered is more cautious and has a 12-month GBP/USD forecast of 1.34.

After testing 3-year highs around 1.3430, GBP/USD consolidated just above 1.3300 as the dollar recovered some ground.

President Trump rowed back on his threat to dismiss Fed Chair Powell which triggered a Wall Street rebound and dollar recovery.

The Pound was underpinned by steady gains in the FTSE 100 index as well as stronger than expected retail sales data.

Confidence in US assets and currency will remain crucial for global markets with trade and tariff developments inevitably playing a big part.

The Administration remains upbeat over the outlook for trade deals for countries such as Japan, but any positive headlines may not be backed up with substance.

US-China relations remain very difficult despite China’s move to cut tariffs on some key imports.

Markets will continue to track shipping data and evidence on the impact of tariffs.

ABN Amro expects there will be long-term dollar damage; “In trying to bring back manufacturing, and reducing its dependence on China, the US is destroying its reputation and risks losing its dominance of the financial system, perhaps even to China. Tariffs can be unwound quickly, but regaining the world’s trust will take much longer.”

According to Danske the dollar is still vulnerable; “In the near term, the brewing confidence crisis in US assets and mounting US recession concerns are likely to remain dominant market themes, offering continued support for the cross.”

Danske added; “Longer term, we believe the evolving structural backdrop — including the seismic shift in US politics, the ongoing trade war, and signs of capital rotation out of US assets — will leave the USD facing the greatest relative downside.”

Standard Chartered commented; “We now see downside risks primarily driven by renewed tariff noise. Reduced US policy uncertainty or a decisively hawkish turn in Fed policy is an upside risk for the USD.”

There are strong expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates at the May policy meeting with most banks expecting a further two cuts over the second half of the year.

UBS expects the Pound can hold its own in global markets and take advantage of a soft dollar; “While we do not believe investors are yet considering the GBP a safe haven, we acknowledge its high correlation to the EUR during these uncertain times. Its liquidity and carry profile do seem attractive to global investors. Both should remain in place for the time being, barring any yield blow ups.

The Pound could benefit if the Federal Reserve engages in sharp interest rate cuts.

According to Standard Chartered; “expectations of rising near-term inflation should keep the Fed cautious in its approach to interest rate adjustments, supporting the USD in the near term. However, trade policy uncertainty may hinder US economic growth and lead to fund rotations out of the US, potentially leading to a softer dollar over a 12-month horizon.”

The UK fiscal 2024/25 budget deficit was £151.9bn, £14.6 billion more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Commerzbank is not confident in the UK outlook; “the UK’s recent growth has been almost entirely based on the public sector. So, not a good sign for the pound: less growth and more rate cuts at the same time.”

RBC Capital Markets added; “less than a month after the Spring Statement it already looks likely that the Chancellor will have to make further policy changes at the Budget in the Autumn.”

Nevertheless, it considers that the structural process of updated forecasts overstates potential vulnerability.

The bank added; “For sure, it’s not that the UK has a great story to tell, it’s just that its story isn’t a significantly worse one than many of its peers.”

UBS expects global developments will dominate for now; “The UK data calendar is relatively light next week suggesting that the near-term outlook for the GBP could remain a function of global drivers like the resilience of market risk sentiment and the evolution of the USD across the board.”

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