April 29, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Sterling Drifts, Dollar Supported by US-China Tariff Optimism

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate was on the back foot on Tuesday as the US released its latest JOLT’s job openings data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3409, down roughly 0.2% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

On Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD) managed gain ground against most of its counterparts, despite some worse-than-expected domestic data.

The latest JOLT’s job openings report for March showed a decline from 7.48 million to 7.192 million, falling short of expectations that it would remain unchanged.

Adding to the ‘Greenback’s’ challenges was the release of the US’s latest CB consumer confidence index, which dropped from 93.9 to 86.

However, despite these underwhelming figures, the US Dollar gained strength against the majority of its peers, partly due to increased optimism surrounding the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, and hopes for de-escalation.

On Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) failed to gain momentum and weakened against several major currencies despite the absence of fresh domestic data.

The Pound’s performance was primarily shaped by market expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), as investors now anticipate a 25 basis-point reduction at the BoE’s meeting next week.

Sterling’s decline was also exacerbated by signs of a slowing economy amid rising geopolitical tensions. The EY Item Club downgraded its UK GDP forecasts, projecting growth of 0.8% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026, down from earlier estimates of 1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the primary driver of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate will likely be a duo of high impact data releases from the US.

The US will unveil its latest GDP figures and its most recent core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

If both data points come in as expected, with GDP forecast to decline and the core PCE price index expected to show a slowdown in inflation, then USD exchange rate could face significant headwinds during mid-week trading.

For the UK, there are no scheduled economic data releases on Wednesday, so the Pound is likely to be influenced by broader market trends and global sentiment.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

April 29, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Sterling Drifts, Dollar Supported by US-China Tariff Optimism

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate was on the back foot on Tuesday as the US released its latest JOLT’s job openings data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3409, down roughly 0.2% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

On Tuesday, the US Dollar (USD) managed gain ground against most of its counterparts, despite some worse-than-expected domestic data.

The latest JOLT’s job openings report for March showed a decline from 7.48 million to 7.192 million, falling short of expectations that it would remain unchanged.

Adding to the ‘Greenback’s’ challenges was the release of the US’s latest CB consumer confidence index, which dropped from 93.9 to 86.

However, despite these underwhelming figures, the US Dollar gained strength against the majority of its peers, partly due to increased optimism surrounding the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, and hopes for de-escalation.

On Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) failed to gain momentum and weakened against several major currencies despite the absence of fresh domestic data.

The Pound’s performance was primarily shaped by market expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), as investors now anticipate a 25 basis-point reduction at the BoE’s meeting next week.

Sterling’s decline was also exacerbated by signs of a slowing economy amid rising geopolitical tensions. The EY Item Club downgraded its UK GDP forecasts, projecting growth of 0.8% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026, down from earlier estimates of 1% and 1.6%, respectively.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the primary driver of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate will likely be a duo of high impact data releases from the US.

The US will unveil its latest GDP figures and its most recent core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

If both data points come in as expected, with GDP forecast to decline and the core PCE price index expected to show a slowdown in inflation, then USD exchange rate could face significant headwinds during mid-week trading.

For the UK, there are no scheduled economic data releases on Wednesday, so the Pound is likely to be influenced by broader market trends and global sentiment.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on April 29, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bullish.
• Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1370 – 1.1300 – 1.1240.
• Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1440 – 1.1520 – 1.1600.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1280 with a target of 1.1420 and a stop-loss at 1.1190.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1440 with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss at 1.1530.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Ahead of a batch of important and influential US economic releases, bulls attempted to push the EUR/USD price upwards with gains to the resistance level of 1.1425, which reinforces expectations for a move towards the 1.1500 resistance again. Before the rebound, we observed stability in the US dollar price in global markets, but sentiment remains cautious. Forex market experts believe that the worst-case scenario for EUR/USD is likely the support level of 1.1250, and in the event of surprising US data, the 1.1500 resistance is the risk, especially if any of the US jobs data this week indicates that uncertainty about tariffs has already led to layoffs.

Regarding the long-term outlook for the EUR/USD price, Goldman Sachs has set a 12-month target rate of 1.20.

Trading Tips:

Traders are advised that easing geopolitical and global trade tensions will favor an upward rebound for the EUR/USD pair. Therefore, monitor closely the factors affecting exchange rates to seize the best trading opportunities.

EUR/USD Trading Scenarios:

EUR/USD bullish scenario: will occur technically with a move towards the 1.1500 resistance, which in turn will push technical indicators – the 14-day RSI and the MACD – towards overbought barriers. This resistance will stimulate technical buying trades to move towards peaks that reinforce the bullish outlook for the EUR/USD pair in the coming days. This could be fueled by negative US jobs figures this week, along with a weaker-than-expected US inflation reading favoured by the US Federal Reserve. Alongside these important economic data, trade talks will remain under very close scrutiny.

EUR/USD bearish scenario: Based on the performance on the daily chart, a break of the EUR/USD support level of 1.1260 will remain a threat to the upside. Stability below this level will encourage bears to move towards the next important support levels, 1.1145 and 1.1000, respectively, which will confirm a shift in the general trend to a downside. With the second support, the RSI will move towards the midline, returning the technical performance to neutral.

Today’s EUR/USD trading will be affected by the announcement of the German GFK Consumer Confidence reading at 9:00 AM Cairo time, and the Spanish Growth and Inflation reading at 10:00 AM Cairo time. Most importantly, the US JOLTS Job Openings and US Consumer Confidence readings will be announced at 5:00 PM Cairo time. These are all preliminary indicators of the US jobs figures, the official figures of which will be announced at the end of the week.

US trade wars continue to affect the currency market, according to forex trading. Caution is likely to prevail in the short term, especially if the US administration’s rhetoric does not match reality. Late Friday, US President Trump claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called, but Beijing denied this, insisting there were no trade negotiations.

According to Bank of America, the US dollar could fall more rapidly if the trade negotiations fail. A de-escalation in the trade war and a refocus on pro-growth policies could help the US dollar recover, but we don’t expect the risk premium to completely disappear anytime soon. The bank added that US trade policies and the uncertainty surrounding them are hurting Europe, but are worse for the US. We continue to believe the risks are tilted toward further euro strength as a result of potential European reforms and EU pressure to strike trade deals elsewhere, assuming no trade escalation occurs between the EU and the US.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best forex demo accounts worth trading with.

Created on April 29, 2025

• The euro initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Monday but then fell against the Japanese yen.
• The Japanese yen has been very strong for some time, and the euro has been testing the upside.
• I think you’ve got a situation where you are basically stuck in a range, which makes this a very interesting place to be if you are in fact a range bound trader, as you can take advantage of a fairly well-defined short-term range.

That short-term range is basically supported by the ¥161.50 level, as well as resisted near the ¥164 level. In other words, we are essentially in the middle of this range, so it does suggest that we are going to be somewhat neutral at this moment, and it’s probably worth noting that the 200 Day EMA sits just below current trading. Underneath there, we also have the 50 Day EMA, which in and of itself will attract a lot of attention.

Risk Appetite

Remember that the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency, so we need risk appetite to pick up in order to see the euro gain against it. That being said, if we can break above the ¥165 level, then the euro can truly take off against the Japanese yen. All things being equal, that would take a significant amount of momentum, as well as effort. On a pullback to the 50 Day EMA, then I would be looking for some type of reversal. If we were to break down below the ¥160 level, then it’s likely that we could go down to the ¥158 level, possibly the ¥155 level.

Ultimately, a lot of this will probably come down to the risk appetite of the markets, and the fact that the tariff situation continues to be very difficult for traders to hang onto. The market has been very noisy, and I think that will continue to be the case. Until proven wrong, I am more likely than not going to continue to look at this as a market that remains sideways for the time being, and therefore a range bound system is to be employed.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

• GBP/USD advanced to its highest level in over three years above 1.3440.
• The technical outlook points to a bullish bias in the near term.
• The US economic calendar will feature JOLTS Job Openings data for March.

GBP/USD benefited from the renewed selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) and advanced to its highest level in over three years above 1.3440 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Although the pair corrects lower in the European morning, the technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact.

The USD weakened against its major rivals in the second half of the day on Monday on growing concerns over an economic downturn. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Texas Manufacturing Index slumped to its worst level since May 2020 at -35.8 in April, down from -16.3 in March. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade relations puts additional weight on the USD’s shoulders.

Early Tuesday, a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry said that the US should stop making threats if they want a resolution and noted that it’s the US that needs to seek dialogue with China on tariffs.

In the second half of the day, the US Department of Labor Statistics will publish JOLTS Job Openings data for March. Investors expect the number of job openings to decline slightly to 7.5 million from 7.56 million in February. A significant negative surprise, with a reading at or below 7 million, could trigger another leg of USD selloff and open the door for additional gains in GBP/USD. On the flip side, a bigger-than-forecast print could support the USD and limit the pair’s upside.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD holds comfortably above the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays above 60, reflecting a bullish bias.

On the upside, 1.3480 (mid-point of the ascending regression channel) aligns as the next key resistance level before 1.3500 (static level, round level) and 1.3570 (static level). Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.3340-1.3330 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA) and 1.3280 (lower limit of the ascending channel).

• The USD/JPY price analysis indicates an improvement in risk appetite.

• The US president said he was ready to reduce tariffs on automobiles.

• India will be the first to sign a trade deal with the US.

The USD/JPY price analysis indicates an improvement in risk appetite following Trump’s promise to lower automotive tariffs. At the same time, progress on trade negotiations with countries like India has reduced the risk of a global trade war. However, the dollar remains fragile amid uncertainty over the fate of trade talks between the US and China. 

If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide-

The US president said he was ready to reduce tariffs on automobiles on Tuesday, slightly easing economic concerns. Trump’s tariff campaign has become less aggressive in recent days as he acknowledges the risk to the economy. Last week, the president criticized the Fed, demanding lower interest rates to support the economy. However, Powell has remained cautious, not giving any clear signals on when the next rate cut will come. This has sobered Trump, leading to his softer stance. 

Moreover, negotiations with countries that might suffer reciprocal tariffs are ongoing. On Monday, Scott Bessent said India would be the first to sign a deal with the US. As a result, market participants are optimistic about the global economy. 

However, progress with China has stalled with neither country willing to be the first to cut tariffs. The US is waiting for China to start lowering its tariffs before they do the same. Still, the US has admitted that the current tariffs are unsustainable. Therefore, eventually, one side will have to start the process. 

USD/JPY key events today

USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls retest the 30-SMA resistance

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above and retested a solid resistance trendline. However, it has returned below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is now under 50. Still, bulls are challenging the SMA resistance. 

If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide-

USD/JPY has been on a decline since bears took the lead at the top of the chart. The price mostly stayed below the 30-SMA. Moreover, the highs of the downtrend respected a clear resistance trendline. However, things changed after the price reached the 140.01 support level. 

Here, bulls became stronger, pushing the price above the 30-SMA and the trendline. Furthermore, the price pulled back to retest the line. From here, bulls must break above the 144.02 resistance to make a higher high and confirm an uptrend. Otherwise, the downtrend will continue.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The GBPJPY pair failed to confirm breaching the barrier at 191.55 yesterday, affected by the moving average 55 above it, which forces it to form sideways trading, to be confined between this barrier and the support level at 190.50.

Monitoring the price behavior and waiting for its rally above the barrier, to increase the efficiency of the bullish track, targeting 192.40 level, reaching the next target near 193.15, while reaching below the support will cancel the positive suggestion to force the price suffer several losses, starting at 189.70 and 188.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

The GBPJPY pair failed to confirm breaching the barrier at 191.55 yesterday, affected by the moving average 55 above it, which forces it to form sideways trading, to be confined between this barrier and the support level at 190.50.

Monitoring the price behavior and waiting for its rally above the barrier, to increase the efficiency of the bullish track, targeting 192.40 level, reaching the next target near 193.15, while reaching below the support will cancel the positive suggestion to force the price suffer several losses, starting at 189.70 and 188.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

April 28, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK EUR/USD Outlook: Is Euro to Dollar Rate Forecast to Challenge on 1.15?

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has consolidated around 1.1350 ahead of a big week for US data.

The dollar has managed to stabilise in global markets, but sentiment remains cautious.

According to ING; “Hard data to determine dollar’s next move.”

It added; “The worst case for EUR/USD is probably 1.1250, should US data surprise on the upside. 1.1500 is the risk, should any of this week’s job releases suggest that tariff uncertainty has already triggered layoffs.”

On a longer-term view, Goldman Sachs has a 12-month target of 1.20.

US data will be watched closely this week, especially jobs-related releases.

According to HSBC; “Some high-frequency US data for April already point to a bleak picture.”

It added; “Given the steep drop in US survey/soft data, we’d be very surprised if it doesn’t spill over into hard data at all.”

Trade talks will also continue to be watched very closely.

Caution is likely to prevail in the short term, especially if Administration rhetoric does not appear to match reality.

Late on Friday, President Trump stated that Chinese President Xi had called, but this was denied with Beijing stating that there had been no trade negotiations.

According to Bank of America; “USD could depreciate faster if trade negotiations fail. De-escalation in the trade war and re-focus on pro-growth policies could help the USD recover, but we would not expect risk premium to fully vanquish any time soon.”

It added; “US trade policies and the surrounding uncertainty are bad for Europe, but worse for the US. We still think risks are we think skewed toward more EUR strength from potential European reforms and the EU pushing for trade deals elsewhere, assuming no EU-US trade escalation.

Nordea maintains a bearish stance; “Trump’s plan to deglobalise the US from the rest of the world presents a significant risk to the economy and financial market that is in danger of hurting investor confidence and trust which would be bad news for the dollar.”

Goldman Sachs notes that the Administration has dialled back tariff rhetoric.

It added; “However, after frequent changes in policy positions, we think it will take some time for investors to be convinced. Just as importantly, even after the exemptions and reversals, planned and actual tariff increases are still very large, and US businesses and consumers may be frozen by the uncertainty, which remains high and is why our economists are still on recession watch.”

Goldman also expects longer-term capital shifts; “We view the evidence that some investors have sold or hedged a portion of their Dollar assets largely as confirmation that they are unlikely to be adding to those positions with the same enthusiasm as before. Historically, these types of changes in investor appetite led to large, persistent changes in exchange rates.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts