– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Risks Sustained Decline Below 1.34

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) briefly tested the 1.34 level after US jobs data showed slowing payroll growth but a firmer unemployment picture.

The mixed outcome left the dollar supported and reinforced caution around further near-term Fed easing.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Tests 1.34 Support

The Pound to Dollar rate touched the 1.3400 level in immediate reaction to the US jobs data before a recovery to 1.3435 as the dollar failed to hold gains.

The 1.3400 level remains a significant support area for the pair.

UoB commented; “Our view remains unchanged. Looking ahead, if GBP breaks below 1.3400, it could trigger a more sustained decline.”

According to Scotiabank, there has been some evidence of a shift in Pound dynamics; “we see some added near-term risk from the turn in sentiment as we note the signs of exhaustion in risk reversals stalling out after fading a considerable portion of the premium for protection against GBP weakness over the past month or so.”

It added; “We remain neutral absent a clear break below the 200 day MA (1.3393), after which we see risk of an extension to the 50 day MA at 1.3304.”

The latest US jobs report recorded an increase in non-farm payrolls of 50,000 for December compared with consensus forecasts of around 65,000 while the November increase was revised down slightly to 56,000 from the 64,000 reported previously.

The October figure was revised to show a 173,000 decline, primarily due to the slump in government jobs.

The household survey recorded a decline in unemployment to 4.4% from 4.6% and compared with expectations of a slight decline to 4.5%.

Overall, the data was not considered weak enough to justify a further near-term cut in interest rates.

In response, markets priced out the potential for a rate cut at the late-January meeting with the chances of a March move lowered to around 30%.

Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities commented; “It should mean that the Fed will continue to eye the labor market before cutting rates in the first quarter.”

Markets remain on alert for any nomination over the next Fed Chair.

Scotiabank commented; “President Trump said yesterday that he had made up his mind on his Fed chair pick. There was no additional information from the president—other than he had not divulged his choice to anyone— but the comment will likely bolster speculation that an announcement could come shortly.”

There is also the potential for the Supreme Court to make an announcement on the reciprocal tariffs announced in April.

Either of these factors could have a significant impact on the dollar, wider currency markets and risk appetite.

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The EURJPY pair succeeded in holding above 182.80 support, taking advantage of providing extra positive momentum by stochastic, to attack the barrier at 183.50 to find an exit for renewing the bullish attempts, waiting to achieve the breach and providing a positive close above it, to confirm targeting the positive stations near 183.85 and 184.15.

While the return to decline below the support line will force it to activate the negative scenario, which forced it to suffer big losses by reaching 182.30 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 183.10 and 183.85

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on January 09, 2026

• The British pound initially dipped against the Japanese yen during early trading on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of consolidation in general.
• For what it’s worth, we dropped pretty significant amounts in the early hours, but as I write this, we just went positive again for the day.
• With this, I think that’s a good sign that there are still plenty of buyers out there willing to get involved. With that being proven during the day on Thursday, I think it remains a buy on the dip scenario.

Central Bank Divergence and the Carry Trade

In fact, you have to keep in mind that the interest rate differential is wide enough to drive a truck through, as the Bank of England, although it did recently cut 25 basis points, still is expected to be very slow about cutting its rate. At the same time, the Japanese yen and the Bank of Japan did see a rate hike recently, but it’s still only 0.75%, and they will have to be very cautious due to the heavy debt burden that Japan faces.

I think you continue to see a lot of back and forth trading here, but overall, I still favor the upside because not only are we in an uptrend, but we do get paid at the end of every day to hold this pair.

A breakdown could open up a move down toward the 209 level, which should be support, followed by the 207.50 level, where the 50-day EMA currently lives, which should also offer support. To the upside, I think we’re looking at a move toward the 215 level before it’s all said and done, but it’s going to take some time to get there, and you will have to be patient.

A lot of risk appetite could be influenced one way or the other on Friday after the jobs report in America. But at the end of the day, these central banks are moving in opposite directions at a snail’s pace, meaning that the carry trade will be very much alive.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Platinum price kept its stability below $2320.00 level, to confirm the stability of the bearish corrective scenario by hitting the target at $2180.00, to form some mixed waves by its fluctuation near $2260.00.

Note that the continuation of providing negative momentum by stochastic will push the price to renew the corrective attempts, to expect reaching $2180.00. breaking this barrier will extend the trading towards $2130.00, representing the next target of the current trading, while breaching $2320.00 level will cancel the negative scenario, which allows it to form new bullish waves to press again on the historical high at $2460.00 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $2180.00 and $2305.00

Trend forecast: Bearish