The EURJPY pair provided several positive closes above %23.6 Fibonacci correction level at 182.05, to form a new extra support, providing a chance to recover some losses by its rally towards 183.20 as appears in the above image.
The main indicators’ contradiction might push the price to achieve extra gains, however the stability below 184.05 barrier forms a main factor for confirming the continuation of the negativity in the upcoming trading, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering negative momentum that allows it to renew the pressure on 182.05 level, where breaking it will open the way for targeting new bearish stations that might begin at 181.55 and 181.10.
The expected trading range for today is between 182.05 and 183.65
Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bearish track
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) held above three-month lows as volatile energy markets and escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to dominate currency trading.
Sterling briefly slipped toward the 1.3300 level before rebounding to around 1.3388 (+0.23%), while the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) strengthened to 1.1542 (+0.3%) following weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Despite the rebound, investors remain focused on oil and gas prices and the potential disruption to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping global FX markets on edge.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Recovery From 3-Month Lows
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was unable to regain the 1.3400 level on Wednesday and retreated to near 1.3300 on Thursday before rallying to 1.3360 in choppy trading.
UoB noted the risk of a retreat to 1.3250 and added; “Overall, only a breach of 1.3450 would indicate that GBP is not weakening further.”
Scotiabank is more positive on the outlook; “the extended lower shadows on the daily charts are suggestive of persistent support as the GBP recovers from deep intraday lows.” The bank sees scope for a move above 1.3400.
Middle East developments continued to dominate with unease over energy prices underpinning the dollar, although there remained a high degree of uncertainty.
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According to ING; “Given much uncertainty, we suspect the dollar can edge towards the top of recent ranges today.”
The bank expects a continuing focus on energy prices. Oil prices have posted renewed gains with Brent close to 19-month highs while European gas prices have also increased. Developments surrounding the straits of Hormuz and LNG facilities in Qatar will be watched very closely.
ING commented; “Investors may now be concluding that a swift resolution in the Middle East is unlikely, as reports suggesting an early negotiated settlement or US efforts to reopen the Straits of Hormuz amid an ongoing conflict appear premature.”
According to MUFG; “There remains a high level of uncertainty over the potential length of the conflict and scale of disruption to global energy supplies.”
Danske Bank considers the US response; “If pressure on oil prices does not start to ease, the US would likely consider selling strategic reserves. That will not be able to replace the oil shut in behind the Strait of Hormuz though but can help contain prices.”
According to MUFG; “A prolonged conflict would increase downside risks for the global economy and the risk of a more persistent inflation shock. Our forecasts for US dollar strength to be temporary are based on the assumption that the conflict last weeks rather months.”
US data also supported the dollar. The ISM non-manufacturing business confidence index strengthened to a 3-year high of 56.1 for February from 53.8 previously and compared with consensus forecasts of 53.5.
Deutsche Bank commented; “That backdrop of strong data meant investors kept pricing out the likelihood of an H1 rate cut from the Fed.
It added; “So clearly there’s growing scepticism that a new Chair can start cutting straight away, particularly with the data as strong as it is right now.”
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The US dollar initially plunged against the Japanese yen only to turn around and show signs of strength. By doing so, if the market were to break above the 158-yen level, the barrier just above, it has 200 pips to chew through before it makes a significant move, unless there is some type of external shock.
Keep in mind that if we clear the 160-yen level, it is potentially a massive long-term move as we would be breaking through resistance all the way back from 1990, something that will rattle the markets. In that environment, I have a projected move to 250. That is why it is so important to get through that area for the dollar.
Anticipating Choppiness and Support Levels
In the meantime, I would anticipate a lot of choppiness, a lot of pullbacks, but those pullbacks continue to get bought into as the Bank of Japan is stuck with its interest rate policy and the fact that the demographic is a major problem for Japan long-term. With this, the massive debt, they just are stuck.
I believe that any time this market pulls back you have to look at it as a potential buying opportunity like we saw, but I am also looking at the 156 yen level underneath as potential support right along with the 50-day EMA and then underneath there, you would have the 154-yen level.
I think eventually we do break out above that aforementioned 160-yen level, but it is going to be a massive effort that is going to be necessary to get through there. In the meantime, you are looking at a short-term buy on the dip scenario followed by a long-term buy and hold.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The British pound has been very active and very noisy against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday as we continue to hang around the 210-yen level.
All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility based on the idea that quite frankly, we just don’t have a lot of clarity when it comes to risk appetite.
Keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, and of course the British pound itself has a much higher interest rate than the Japanese yen, so we need good news to get this going to the upside significantly. As far as the interest rate differential is concerned, yes, it is a market that pays you to hang onto it, but ultimately I think you have a scenario where people are just simply not sure what to do and if that’s going to be the case, then it’s likely that it is very difficult to put a lot of money into this market.
Technical Support and Upside Potential
A short-term pullback from here opens up the possibility of a drop down to the 208-yen level. Breaking below the 208-yen level opens up the possibility of a move down to the 205-yen level where the 200-day EMA currently sits.
If we turn around and break above the 212-yen level, then it would be very risk-on type of appetite opening up the possibility to a move to the 215-yen level. Ultimately this is a market that I think will be very volatile, very difficult, but given enough time should go higher based on risk appetite returning and of course interest rate differential, but in the meantime, we will get these sudden moves that drop the market only to turn around and see it whip straight back to the other.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The EURJPY pair provided several positive closes above %23.6 Fibonacci correction level at 182.05, to form a new extra support, providing a chance to recover some losses by its rally towards 183.20 as appears in the above image.
The main indicators’ contradiction might push the price to achieve extra gains, however the stability below 184.05 barrier forms a main factor for confirming the continuation of the negativity in the upcoming trading, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering negative momentum that allows it to renew the pressure on 182.05 level, where breaking it will open the way for targeting new bearish stations that might begin at 181.55 and 181.10.
The expected trading range for today is between 182.05 and 183.65
Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bearish track
Platinum price ended its last corrective attempts by reaching $2220.00 level, to rebound quickly towards $2180.00, keeping its negative stability below $2245.00 level besides forming %61.8 Fibonacci correction level at $2200.00 level as appears in the above image.
The stability of moving average 55 above the current trading will increase the negative pressure, to reinforce the chances of resuming the negative attack, to expect targeting $2130.00 level reaching $2080.00 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $2080.00 and $2200.00
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate struggled to gain momentum on Thursday as the ongoing crisis in the Middle East continued to keep markets on edge.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3369. While the pair attempted to recoup some of its earlier losses, upside movement remained limited as a cautious market mood continued to underpin demand for the safe-haven ‘Greenback’.
The US Dollar remained broadly supported, although its momentum softened slightly as markets attempted a modest recovery in risk sentiment.
The ‘Greenback’ had strengthened overnight on Wednesday as escalating tensions in the Middle East fuelled demand for safe-haven assets. This came after the US denied reports that Iranian operatives had reached out to the CIA to discuss terms for a ceasefire.
Hawkish remarks from US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth added to market anxiety, with reports he urged Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz to ‘continue to the end’. Meanwhile, Iran struck a US oil tanker in the Persian Gulf while continuing drone and missile attacks against US allies in the region.
Although markets staged a brief rebound on Thursday morning, the overall mood remained cautious. As a result, the US Dollar continued to find some support from lingering risk aversion, even as its earlier gains eased slightly.
The increasingly risk-sensitive Pound struggled to gain strong traction, although it managed to stabilise somewhat as markets attempted a modest recovery in sentiment.
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The absence of fresh UK economic data left Sterling without a clear domestic catalyst, while the mixed implications of rising global energy prices kept upside potential somewhat limited.
Surging energy costs may encourage the Bank of England to adopt a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates, given the potential for renewed inflationary pressure. Expectations that borrowing costs may remain higher for longer can typically lend support to the Pound.
However, escalating energy prices could also place additional strain on the UK’s already fragile economy. Higher household bills risk intensifying the cost-of-living crisis, while the prospect of increased support measures may also pose a fiscal challenge for the British government.
Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Jobs Data in Focus
The US Dollar could face fresh volatility as markets turn their attention to the latest US non-farm payrolls report.
Economists forecast that job creation slowed notably in February, with payrolls expected to rise by around 59,000, down sharply from 130,000 in the previous month. A slowdown of this magnitude may raise concerns about the resilience of the US labour market and could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates sooner than previously anticipated.
Alongside the jobs data, the latest US retail sales figures are also due for release. January’s reading is expected to show a 0.3% contraction in sales, which could further dampen confidence in the US economic outlook and add to downside pressure on the US Dollar.
However, any losses for the ‘Greenback’ may prove limited if risk aversion remains elevated. Continued tensions in the Middle East could still drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
With little in the way of notable UK economic data scheduled, movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to remain primarily driven by US data and the broader market mood.
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EUR/USD registered small gains on Wednesday but failed to gather recovery momentum. The pair comes under renewed bearish pressure and trades below 1.1600 in the European session on Thursday.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
1.46%
0.74%
0.85%
0.11%
0.41%
0.71%
1.78%
EUR
-1.46%
-0.73%
-0.64%
-1.33%
-1.05%
-0.73%
0.31%
GBP
-0.74%
0.73%
-0.10%
-0.61%
-0.34%
-0.01%
1.05%
JPY
-0.85%
0.64%
0.10%
-0.68%
-0.39%
-0.02%
0.97%
CAD
-0.11%
1.33%
0.61%
0.68%
0.27%
0.67%
1.67%
AUD
-0.41%
1.05%
0.34%
0.39%
-0.27%
0.31%
1.37%
NZD
-0.71%
0.73%
0.01%
0.02%
-0.67%
-0.31%
1.06%
CHF
-1.78%
-0.31%
-1.05%
-0.97%
-1.67%
-1.37%
-1.06%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
A modest improvement in risk sentiment made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to build on its weekly gains on Wednesday but upbeat data releases from the US and news pointing to a widening crisis in the Middle East helped the currency keep its footing.
The data from the US showed on Wednesday that the Institue for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 56.1 in February from 53.8 in January, reflecting an ongoing expansion in the services sector’s business activity at an accelerating pace. Additionally, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that employment in private sector rose 63K in February, surpassing the market expectation of 50K.
Late Wednesday, the US Senate rejected a resolution that was aimed at forcing US President Donald Trump to seek congressional approval for further military action against Iran. Meanwhile, CNN reported that a top US official said that the US will start attacking deeper into Iran, noting that the operation is still in its early days.
The US Deparment of Labor’s weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be the only noteworthy data featured in the US economic calendar on Thursday. Investors are likely to ignore this report and opt to wait for the official employment data, which will be published on Friday.
Hence, investors will remain focused on geopolitical headlines. US stock index futures were last seen losing between 0.5% and 0.6% on the day, pointing to another risk-off action in the American session that is likely to help the USD preserve its strength and weigh on EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1583. The near-term bias stays bearish as the pair holds well below the 20-, 50- and 100-period Moving Averages (MAs), with the shorter MAs trending lower under the 200-period MA and reinforcing downside pressure. Price action clings to the lower side of the Bollinger Bands, reflecting persistent selling interest rather than a volatility spike, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 30 signals oversold momentum but not yet a decisive rebound.
Immediate resistance emerges at 1.1670, where a horizontal barrier aligns above the declining 20-period MA and would need to give way to ease the current bearish tone. On the downside, initial support is seen around 1.1531, with a break opening the door toward 1.1500 and then 1.1460, levels that frame the next downside targets if sellers extend control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold prices rose in its recent intraday trading, to recover some of its previous losses, but it continues to face negative and dynamic pressure due to the continuation of its trading below EMA50, which prevented its recovery recently.
This comes because of breaking short-term bullish trend line, weakening the previous positive technical structure, accompanied by the emergence of negative signals from relative strength indicators, which might limit the ability to keep rising unless the price manages to breach its near resistance and holds above it.
Therefore, we suggest a decline in gold price’s upcoming intraday trading, if $5,200 resistance remains intact, to target $5,000 support level.
The expected trading range is between $5,000 support and $5,250 resistance.
