– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Rate Forecast: GBP Pressured by UK Bond Rout, US Jobs Data

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is navigating a fragile balance as rising UK bond yields, mounting political pressure on Prime Minister Starmer and crucial US labour market data converge to drive near-term direction.

With gilt yields hitting fresh 2026 highs and investors bracing for delayed US jobs figures, Sterling is holding above 1.35 but remains vulnerable to sharp volatility on both sides of the Atlantic.

If you’re planning a Dollar-Pound transfer or want to protect against renewed GBP swings, compare specialist money transfer providers now to secure competitive exchange rates before key data hits.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Hold Above 1.35

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped below 1.3600 in early Europe on Monday before trading just above this level as a weaker dollar helped spare the Pound from further punishment with a rebound to around 1.3650. Crucial support is in the 1.3500 area.

According to Scotiabank; “the GBP looks to have found nearterm support around 1.35, at levels roughly corresponding to the prior local high from early January. The RSI is neutral, and additional support is expected around the 50 day MA at 1.3477 as well as the 200 day MA at 1.3430. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3550 and 1.3650.”

CIBC has a year-end GBP/USD forecast of 1.39.

UK and US developments are both likely to have an important impact during the week with a focus on UK politics and US jobs data.

Political tensions have continued to rock the Pound with Prime Minister Starmer remaining under severe pressure over the Mandelson scandal.

Over the weekend, his chief of staff McSweeney resigned in an attempt to deflect pressure on Starmer, but his position remains perilous.

Markets remain concerned that if Starmer is forced to resign, Chancellor Reeves would also be likely to lose her job with markets fretting over the outlook for fiscal policy.

UK bonds lost ground on Monday with the 10-year yield increasing to a 2026 high of 4.58%. There will be further concerns over debt interest payments with the risk that bonds and the Pound will slide in tandem.

ING expects dollar vulnerability; “Barring a significant turn for the worse in risk appetite, it looks like we could see a down week for the dollar.”

It considers that solid risk appetite was curbing dollar demand.

The bank added; “US labour market data surprised on the downside last week, and markets are now bracing for the Federal Reserve to potentially re-apprise its view of the jobs market.”

The delayed US employment report is now due on Wednesday. Consensus forecasts are for an increase in non-farm payrolls of around 70,000 from 50,000 last month with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%.

The latest retail sales data is due on Tuesday with the latest consumer prices data on Friday.

CNBC does see scope for a near-term dollar recovery; “For now, we are cognizant of near-term USD upside driven by very tactical catalysts. For one, the reshuffling of speculative positions in gold, silver, and bitcoin could still need more time to stabilize.”

The bank also sees the risk of a dip in risk appetite which would potentially support the US currency.

As far as UK data is concerned, the latest GDP data is due onThursday with consensus forecasts for a 0.1% increase for December from 0.3% previously.

Markets are also expecting GDP growth of 0.2% for the fourth quarter from 0.1% previously.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on February 10, 2026

The US dollar plunged against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Monday, and it looks like we will be trying to find value on a dip yet again.

USD/JPY

The US dollar plunged against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Monday as the 158 yen level continues to be a bit of a barrier. If we can break above the 158 yen level, then it is possible that the market could continue much higher. But I think ultimately at this point in time, we have a lot of questions asked about whether or not the Japanese yen can continue to sell off.

Quite frankly, with the election results over the weekend, I suspect that we will remain in a dovish type of situation when it comes to the Japanese yen. This pullback is probably simple profit taking and perhaps a little bit of a response to US dollar weakness on the whole. We are hanging around the 50-day EMA, which of course is a significant technical indicator that a lot of people will watch.

Support and Resistance Levels

Even if we do break down below here, it is likely that the market could go looking to the 154 yen level, maybe even the 200-day EMA. All things being equal, this is a situation where the 152 yen level is your absolute floor.

If we turn around and go to the upside, we could break above the 158 yen level, maybe go looking to the 160 yen level. I do believe that the carry trade will continue to be a major player in the forex world. While the US dollar should eventually bounce here and offer a buying opportunity, I think you also have to look at other Japanese yen denominated currency pairs such as the British pound against the Japanese yen and the Aussie dollar against the Japanese yen. I am still very bearish on the yen.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Swings as Markets Reprice the Fed

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is being driven almost entirely by Federal Reserve expectations, with investors reassessing the outlook for US rate cuts amid mixed labour-market signals, political uncertainty and growing scrutiny of the Fed’s next leadership.

After a sharp pullback from recent highs, EUR/USD has stabilised below 1.18 as markets weigh weakening US jobs data against the risk of a dollar rebound, leaving the pair highly sensitive to incoming payrolls and Fed rhetoric.

EUR/USD Forecasts: All about the Fed

MUFG forecasts that the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will strengthen to 1.25 at the end of 2026 as the dollar is subjected to further pressure.

SocGen, however, expects that any near-term gains will fade with a retreat to 1.14 by the end of this year as the dollar recovers and the Euro fades.

EUR/USD posted sharp losses to below 1.18 amid a wider dollar rebound and unwinding of long Euro positions, but stabilised later in the week.

SocGen commented on potential selling above 1.20; “Client conviction still low over a sustained move above 1.20.”

A partial US shutdown delayed the latest US employment report. There was, however, an increase in jobless claims for the latest week and the JOLTS data also recorded a sharp decline in job openings to the lowest level since August 2020.

ING commented; “The Fed is becoming more relaxed about the US jobs market. Yet data this week makes that look complacent. And payroll numbers next week will be key.”

It added; “Major downward revisions to payrolls next week would add to the pressure to eventually resume rate cuts.”

Markets now see close to a 20% chance of a rate cut in March and close to a 75% chance of a move by June. Wider issues surrounding Fed policy remain crucial elements for the markets.

According to MUFG; “Further rates cuts and the predictable uncertainties associated with the Trump presidency points to further dollar depreciation this year. Trump described the dollar’s

performance as “great” in January and the Fed checking rates in USD/JPY will ensure investors continue to suspect the Trump administration wants a weaker Dollar.”

Any rhetoric from Fed Chair nominee Warsh will be watched closely.

Lloyds commented on the outlook; “How Warsh intends to reshape the Fed ought to become clearer during the Congressional confirmation hearings . The focus will be on how he could deliver rate cuts — which he must surely have promised to get the job.”

It added; “Whether Powell feels he needs to stay on as Governor, to help protect Fed independence, will be important too . It’ll become clear fairly soon whether the three rate cuts delivered at the end of last year have stabilised the labour market.”

The ECB held the deposit rate at 2.00%, in line with strong expectations. There was no formal guidance and President Lagarde played down the potential risks from a stronger Euro.

Rabobank commented; “We continue to see policy on hold through 2026.”

SocGen, however, sees scope for a looser ECB monetary policy; “We expect disinflation to dominate 2026, driven by moderating wage growth and supportive commodity dynamics, particularly in Brent and agricultural prices.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

The GBPJPY pair failed to confirm breaking 212.85 level, which forces it to delay the previously suggested negative scenario, forming bullish waves to test the broken bullish channel’s support at 214.40 in this morning’s trading, forming a new bearish decline to settle near 213.40.

The contradiction between the main indicators might push the price to provide temporary trading, to keep waiting to confirm the negative scenario by reaching below 212.85, opening the way for targeting negative stations at 212.00 and 211.25, while breaching 214.40 and holding above it will confirm regaining the bullish track, providing strong chances to record new gains by its rally towards 215.50.

The expected trading range for today is between 211.25 and 213.85

Trend forecast: Sideways

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Supported Amid Yen Strength, Jobs Doubts

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) found modest support at the start of the week, with the pair steadying as doubts over the outlook for US employment weighed on the Dollar.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading close to $1.3652, up around 0.3% from Monday’s opening levels as investors grew increasingly cautious ahead of key US labour market data.

The US Dollar struggled to find momentum as confidence in the resilience of the American jobs market continued to ebb.

A run of softer-than-expected employment indicators released last week has left markets wary ahead of January’s delayed non-farm payrolls report. Any disappointment could weigh heavily on the Greenback and further complicate expectations for Federal Reserve policy in the months ahead.

Adding to the Dollar’s woes was renewed strength in the Japanese Yen.

The Yen rallied after Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party secured a decisive election victory, fuelling expectations of fresh fiscal stimulus and pushing Japanese government bond yields higher. The move encouraged capital flows away from the US Dollar, further pressuring USD exchange rates.

Sterling, meanwhile, struggled to build on its early gains as political uncertainty in the UK resurfaced.

Confidence in the Pound took a knock following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, over the weekend. The departure has intensified scrutiny of Starmer’s leadership and unsettled investors.

The episode has also revived attention on Starmer’s decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to Washington, with renewed focus on Mandelson’s past links to Jeffrey Epstein adding to the unease.

For GBP investors, McSweeney’s exit has heightened concerns over instability within the government, particularly at a time when divisions inside the Labour Party appear to be becoming more visible.

GBP/USD Forecast: US Jobs Data to Drive Near-Term Direction

Looking ahead, the next major test for the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate will be Wednesday’s release of the US non-farm payrolls report.

Markets are forecasting job creation of around 70,000 in January, an improvement on December’s 50,000 gain. A result in line with expectations could offer the US Dollar some support.

However, another downside surprise would likely trigger renewed USD selling, especially given the recent run of underwhelming labour data.

With no significant UK economic releases scheduled, Sterling is likely to remain sensitive to domestic political developments. Any further pressure on Prime Minister Starmer’s leadership could leave the Pound vulnerable through the remainder of the week.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on February 09, 2026

The interest rate differential continues to be a mainstay of this pair, as we are levitating into the weekend, looking bullish overall.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has been noisy against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Friday as we are simply hanging around the 156-yen level. I think at this point in time we are probably due for a little bit of a pullback, but I do not want to buy the yen. What I want to do is buy cheaper US dollars.

The interest rate differential continues to favor the United States and that will play a major part in where we go next. Ultimately, I think this is a scenario that remains a buy-on-the-dip for some time, and I just don’t have any interest whatsoever in trying to fight the interest rate differential.

The Long-Term Problem for Japan

The 158-yen level followed by the 159-yen level, both I think are resistance and I think it’s going to be difficult to get above there. But if we can break above the dollar-yen reading of about 162, that’s the highest level since something like 1990.

So, we are on the precipice of something big. We could be talking about 100 yen before it’s all said and done. That doesn’t mean that you put all of your money in aiming for 250 yen, but I think you have to understand that this is a long-term problem for Japan, and I think it continues to be so.

Shorting the yen against a multitude of currencies might be the trade for the next several years, and this is the first place you do it, but there are other places: the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, British pound, etc. I have no interest in shorting this pair. It would have to break down below the 150-yen level for me to rethink things. That doesn’t mean I chase it up here though, and that’s the point of the analysis.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The EURJPY pair began new positivity this morning by its rally towards 186.22, but its neediness to negative momentum that pushed it to retest 184.85 level, to begin forming sideways waves as appears in the above image.

In general, we will keep preferring the bullish bias by the stability of the trading within the bullish channel’s levels and its main support settles near 183.40, therefore, we recommend waiting for gathering bullish momentum in the near period, reinforcing the chances of reaching 186.85, and surpassing it will form next main target at 187.75 in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 184.90 and 186.85

Trend forecast: Bullish

The prospect of an LDP-JIP supermajority in the Lower House supports the bullish short-term outlook for USD/JPY. However, yen intervention threats are likely to continue capping the upside below 160 as seen in January.

Meanwhile, a supermajority would remove the need for Prime Minister Takaichi to make concessions with smaller coalition parties. Over the longer term, this is likely to give the LDP greater control over legislation and ensure prudent fiscal spending, supporting a bearish medium-term outlook for USD/JPY.

Key Japanese Economic Indicators to Look Out For

While the election result will be key to near-term price trends, Japanese economic data will influence the BoJ’s policy stance. On Monday, February 9, wage growth will fuel speculation about a BoJ rate hike. Economists expect average cash earnings to rise 3% year-on-year in December, following a 0.5% increase in November.

A sharp upswing in wage growth would align with the BoJ’s outlook on wages and growing support for rate hikes.

For context, higher wages could boost households’ purchasing power, offsetting the effects of rising import prices. Increased purchasing power, coupled with improving consumer sentiment, would indicate a pickup in spending. Higher spending would fuel demand-driven inflation and bolster the economy, given that private consumption accounts for around 55% of GDP.

Crucially, these scenarios would align with the BoJ’s hawkish quarterly projections, which sent USD/JPY down 1.64% on January 23.

However, leading inflation indicators will also be key given Tokyo’s softer consumer prices in January. Economists expect producer prices to rise 2.3% year-on-year in January, down from 2.4% in December. Holding above the BoJ’s 2% target may revive bets on an H1 2026 rate hike, boosting demand for the yen. A stronger yen would send USD/JPY lower, supporting the bearish medium-term price outlook.

Follow real-time updates to stay ahead of USD/JPY market developments.

US Economic Calendar: Retail Sales, the Jobs Report, and the Fed in Focus

While Japan’s election and Japanese economic data will affect the yen, US economic indicators and Fed rhetoric will influence buying interest in the US dollar.

On Tuesday, February 10, retail sales data will reflect consumer sentiment and economic momentum. Economists forecast retail sales will rise 0.5% month-on-month in December, down from 0.6% in November.

While resilient consumer spending may ease immediate fears of a US recession, the jobs report will be key on Wednesday, February 11.

Economists expect unemployment to remain at 4.4% in January, and wage growth to slow from 3.8% YoY in December to 3.6% YoY in January. Softer wage growth would indicate a drop in consumer spending, dampening demand-driven inflation. A cooler inflation outlook would suggest a more dovish Fed rate path, reaffirming the bearish medium-term price outlook for USD/JPY.

Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor Fed chatter for clues on the timing of a rate cut.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a March 2026 Fed rate cut increased from 13.4% on January 30 to 23.2% on February 6. Additionally, the probability of a June cut rose from 67.3% to 75%. Shifts in the chances of March and June cuts will be key for US dollar trends.

Market View: Medium-Term Yen Strength

In my opinion, USD/JPY would likely fall toward 150 on market bets on multiple Fed rate cuts and a hawkish BoJ policy stance. Narrowing US-Japan rate differentials would affirm the bearish medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook. A drop below 150 would reaffirm the longer-term (8-16 weeks) 145-140 range.

Counter-Trend Risks: What Could Send USD/JPY Toward 160?

Upside risks include:

• LDP-JIP wins a landslide election and announces aggressive fiscal spending plans.
• Upbeat US economic data and Fed rhetoric cool bets on an H1 2026 rate cut.
• Weaker Japanese economic data temper BoJ rate hike expectations.

Despite the upside risks, yen intervention threats are likely to cap upside around 160. Given the upside risks, a breakout above 158 would pave the way toward January’s high of 159.453. A move toward 159.453 would invalidate the medium-term bearish structure.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Building

On the daily chart, USD/JPY traded above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The EMA positions signaled a bullish bias. However, favorable yen fundamentals continue to counter technicals, supporting the negative outlook for USD/JPY.

A drop below the 50-day EMA would expose 155. If breached, the 200-day EMA would be the next key technical support level. Crucially, a sustained fall through the EMAs would indicate a bearish trend reversal, bringing the 150 support level into play. A break below 150 would enable the bears to target the 145-140 range, aligning with the longer-term price projection.

I wrote on the 1^st February that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of the EUR/USD currency pair following a daily close above $1.2039. This did not set up.

A summary of last week’s most important data in the market:

1. Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations – fell from 4.0% to 3.5%.
2. European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement – rates left on hold as expected.
3. Bank of England Official Bank Rate, Votes, Monetary Policy Summary & Report – rates left on hold as expected, but there were a couple more abstentions on the vote than were expected, which was a minor dovish tilt, boosting chances of a rate cut in the near term.
4. RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement, and Monetary Policy Statement – the RBA hiked its interest rate by 0.25% as was expected, albeit with 73% probability, so the Australian Dollar rose following this news.
5. US JOLTS Job Openings – this was a little worse than expected, which was slightly negative news on the US economy.
6. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment – stronger than expected, which was positive news on the US economy.
7. US ISM Services PMI – approximately as expected.
8. US ISM Manufacturing PMI– considerably stronger than expected, which was positive news on the US economy.
9. New Zealand Unemployment Rate – unexpectedly ticked higher to 5.4%.
10. Canada Unemployment Rate – unexpectedly fell from 6.8% to 6.5%.
11. US Unemployment Claims – slightly higher than expected.

The only two elements here which really affected the markets last week was the continued bullish performance of the US economy, which keeps rate cut expectations low, and the RBA’s rate hike which kept the Australian Dollar performing as the strongest major currency.

The other two relevant issues are

1. The continuing US military build up against Iran, although the USA and Iran began talks last Friday, with President Trump publicly saying they are going well. Prediction markets currently see a US attack on Iran before July as unlikely.
2. An election to the more powerful Lower House of the Japanese Parliament is being held today (Sunday), and opinion polls suggest the new LDP administration will probably win a landslide. This may weaken the Japanese Yen further as the administration truly requires a weaker Yen, or it could be a case of “sell the fact”, which would present a Yen rebound recovery when results start to emerge.

The coming week’s most important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US CPI (inflation)
2. US Average Hourly Earnings
3. US Retail Sales
4. US Non-Farm Employment Change
5. Swiss CPI (inflation)
6. UK GDP
7. US Unemployment Rate
8. US Unemployment Claims

Wednesday will be a public holiday in Japan.

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

For the month of February, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair would rise in value.

February 2026 Monthly Forecast Performance to Date

Last week saw one cross with excessive volatility, so I made the following weekly forecast:

The Australian Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the Japanese Yen was the weakest. Directional volatility rose significantly last week, with one third of all major pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%.

Next week’s volatility is likely to be similar.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Last week, the US Dollar Index printed a bullish candlestick which closed higher but with a significant upper wick, signifying some indecision. This is weakly bullish by itself, but we also have a long-term bearish trend with the price below its levels of both 13 and 26 weeks ago. This gives us a conflicted technical picture about the US Dollar.

So, I see the outlook now as uncertain and the best market opportunities will probably not be US Dollar-dependent.

US Dollar Index Weekly Price Chart

The AUD/JPY currency cross made a very strong upwards move, with the weekly close almost right at the high of the range, with unusually high volatility. The price made a bullish breakout to a new 30+ year high.

These are very bullish signs, as are the facts that the Australian Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, backed by an RBA rate hike, while the Japanese Yen continues to depreciate against most currencies as part of its long-term bearish trend, driven by the massive level of Japanese debt.

While this may look like the perfect bullish storm, an excessive weekly move like this is often followed by a retracement for at least a few days, so a drop in price over the next week would not surprise me.

This pair is likely to see the most action in the Forex market next week, at least until the US CPI data is released, so it might be interesting for swing traders on the long side or day traders on the short side.

AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

The major US equity indices like the S&P 500 Index and the tech-focused NASDAQ 100 Index are looking very choppy as they struggle to make new highs, showing swings with high volatility. This suggests an unstable market which, although bullish, may be about to reverse.

Yet, the old fashioned, old economy Dow Jones Industrial Average had a very strong week, closing right on its high at a new record, and breaking the big round number at 50,000 too. These are bullish signs, suggesting that it is the big tech firms which dominate the major indices which are causing poor price action. Away from the big tech giants, we see the basic sectors of the old economy doing well enough to make new record highs.

I am not strongly confident of this trade, but I think a long trade here with a trailing stop loss, due to the US economy’s historically strong track record, is worth taking. You might want to use a smaller than usual position size, like 50% for example.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly Price Chart

BTC/USD has continued to make significant bearish breakdowns below a few long-term support levels from just above $81,000 and has recently reached a new 16-month low. This is technically very significant in a bearish way.

While stocks and precious metals were rising strongly over recent months, Bitcoin fell from a record high a few months ago and continued to decline. It is clear the crypto sector is in decline, and that Bitcoin is in serious trouble. Bitcoin was meant to change the world, but outside of Africa, is just has not – you still can’t use it and it is unclear what value it really holds.

I do not like shorting assets, and Bitcoin now seems to be staging a recovery, with a significantly long lower wick now showing on the current weekly candlestick.

I think the price to watch is the support level at about $68,500. If the price action settles above this support, the fall will likely at least pause for a while. If the price action settles below this level, we will likely see a further drop towards the $50,000 area soon.

Bitcoin Weekly Price Chart

Gold, like Silver, saw a massive drop in just a day or two at the end of January. The drop is Silver was stronger, but Gold fell quickly from a record high at about $5,600 to a low at $4,400 by the end of the week, which is shown within the daily price chart below.

Applying a Fibonacci retracement study, we can see that the halfway level of this movement is very confluent with a major round number at $5,000 and this has held firmly as resistance.

The price action suggests we are going to get a consolidation now on gradually declining volatility, like a struck tuning fork playing itself out.

I think short trades from rejections of the $5,000 level as this plays out, provided they are handled skillfully as short-term trades on lower timeframes, is probably going to be the best strategy for trading Gold over the coming week.

If the price gets established above $5,000 that will be a contradictory bullish sign.

Gold Daily Price Chart

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Ready to trade our Forex weekly forecast? Check out our list of the best Forex brokers.