Created on March 01, 2026

The EUR/USD exchange ended the week in a tight range after the US published a strong inflation report, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next move. The pair was trading at 1.1817, a few points above last week’s low of 1.1745.

The EUR/USD pair remained in a tight range after the US published a higher inflation report. Data released on Friday showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped from 0.4% in December to 0.5% in January. This increase led to an annual move from 3.3% to 3.6%.

The core PPI inflation report moved from 0.6% to 0.8% on a MoM basis and from 3% to 2.9%. These numbers mean that inflation is still a major concern in the United States. As such, there is a risk that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as soon as analysts were expecting.

The EUR/USD pair also reacted to the latest European inflation report. Data by the German statistics agency showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 2.1% in January to 1.9% in February.

Looking ahead, the US will publish the latest non-farm payrolls data on Friday. These numbers will provide more information on what to expect in the coming meetings. Economists expect the data to show that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in February as the economy added over 60k jobs.

The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair was flat on Friday. It was trading at 1.1817, a few points above last week’s low of 1.1743. It has also rebounded above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

At the same time, the pair has formed a falling wedge pattern, which is made up of two descending and converging trendlines. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have pointed upwards.

Therefore, the pair will likely be highly volatile on Monday as investors assess the impact of the ongoing war in Iran and its impact on the market. The key support and resistance levels to watch will be at 1.1700 and 1.2000.

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Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.

I wrote on the 22^nd February that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily (New York) close above 7,025. This did not set up.
2. Long of Gold following a daily (New York) close above $5,418.55. This did not set up.
3. Long with a small position in WTI Crude Oil on short-term bullish price action while New York is open but be quick to take profits once war breaks out or if an agreement is reached. This would have you already in a long trade, possibly taken intraday Friday near the 7-month high price.

A summary of last week’s most important data in the market:

1. US PPI – this is seen as an indicator for inflation, and this data released on Friday came in much hotter than expected, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5% while an increase of only 0.3% was expected. This sent US stock markets lower and was a minor hawkish tilt for expectations of the path of rate cuts, but it had little effect on the US Dollar.
2. US President Trump State of the Union speech – this had little to no effect on the markets.
3. Australian CPI (inflation) – this also came in a bit hotter than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% when only 0.2% was expected, which prevented the annualized rate from falling from 3.8%. This helped keep the Aussie a little bit stronger than it would otherwise have been.
4. Canadian GDP – this was slightly higher than expected, showing a monthly increase of 0.2% while an increase of only 0.1% was expected, although this had no real effect on the market.
5. US Unemployment Claims – almost exactly as expected.

The only significant effects last week’s economic data had was minor dovish tilt on expected rate cuts by the Fed, and the stronger AUD after the higher inflation data.

The week brought little clarity on tariffs. In any case, markets seem to have calmed down a lot about that issue.

The week was really dominated by speculation over the possibility of an American attack on Iran, with the prediction market Polymarket seeing odds narrowing Friday as the US Ambassador told Americans to leave Israel “today” if they wanted too but still showing only an approximate 30% chance of an attack over the weekend.

Ambassador Huckabee’s warning was worth paying attention to, as a few hours after dawn on Saturday morning saw a joint Israeli / US strike, generating an element of surprise as the opening salvo was expected to be made during hours of darkness.

Ayatollah Khamenei has been the Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989 and has been arguably the leading global figurehead of hostility towards the USA and Israel.

It seems clear that this war is going to last for a few days at least, maybe even for a few weeks, and that a surrender by the regime remains unlikely, at least for time being.

Interestingly, there has been no military response yet from any of Iran’s proxies, notably Hezbollah which is positioned on Israel’s northern border and could still add to Israeli damage and logistical issues. It is telling that despite the confirmed death of the Ayatollah, the proxies have still not joined battle, that is a very bullish sign for the USA and Israel.

Yesterday the Iranian navy warned ships not to enter the Gulf of Hormuz, and traffic remains down by about 70%. More than 10% of the world’s Crude Oil passes through this narrow waterway, so if the US does not manage to undo this semi-blockade, Crude Oil markets will likely be under supply pressure unless OPEC agrees to increase production. There are signs OPEC already agreed this with President Trump. The price of WTI Crude Oil rose strongly on Friday and broke the 6-month high price, so many trend traders will already be long here. The price of Gasoline has also risen.

The coming week’s most important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US Average Hourly Earnings
2. US Non-Farm Employment Change
3. US Retail Sales
4. US ISM Services PMI
5. US ISM Manufacturing PMI
6. Australian GDP
7. UK Annual Budget
8. US Unemployment Rate
9. US Unemployment Claims

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

For the month of February, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair would rise in value.

February 2026 Monthly Forecast Final Performance

Last week saw no currency crosses with excessive volatility, so I am making no forecast for the coming week.

The Swiss Franc was the strongest major currency last week, while the Japanese Yen was the weakest. Directional volatility decreased last week, with only 11% of all major pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%.

Next week’s volatility is likely to be higher due to the outbreak of war in the Middle East, which might generate volatility in the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the Canadian Dollar. There could also be unforeseen side effects which might affect other currencies.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Last week, the US Dollar printed a small doji candlestick, which is typically seen as indecision. I see it more as a consolidation as the area of the candlestick is located where the price has been comfortable in recent weeks.

Zooming out, we can see that although the price action of recent months suggests a bearish consolidation pattern, the most recent price action has been bullish over recent weeks. The long-term trend is mixed, with the price below its level of 3 months ago but just above its level of 6 months ago.

We saw the interest rate outlook remain more bullish last week on the greenback, with markets now pricing in only two rate cuts of 0.25% over the course of 2026 instead of the three that were expected in the previous week. This was reinforced by hot PPI data.

I take no bias here on the US Dollar, which is not of much concern to the market. I think it will be better to watch other assets on their own merits this week.

US Dollar Index Weekly Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil rose last week, especially on Friday when the odds of an American attack on Iran seemed to narrow, sending the price higher to make a new 6-month high and close at what was nearly a 7-month high.

The rumour of war was correct, and it appears both sides are playing for as high stakes as could be, with the USA and Israel openly calling for regime change after killing Ayatollah Khameini and many other very senior figures in the opening strike Saturday morning.

Although it seems that neither side is targeting crude oil facilities, yesterday Iran announced a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, and it seems 70% of oil tankers are still afraid to pass through. Iran attacked one oil tanker Sunday in the Strait. If this situation persists, it will reduce the supply of crude oil to the market as over 10% of global crude oil passes through the Strait. Still, OPEC looks poised to increase production, which may save the Americans from having to reopen the Strait to get the prices of Crude Oil and Gasoline down.

No matter what damage control happens now, I think it is likely that we will see a higher open for WTI Crude Oil on Monday. I am already long of it as a trend trader, but I will be exiting my long position quickly, by close on Monday or Tuesday, as I expect that OPEC will oblige and open the crude oil tap.

I could be wrong and just the sentiment could see the price move higher for several days if the war continues. It does seem likely that the war will go on for several days or weeks.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Price Chart

The AUD/USD currency pair is very interesting right now, as the Australian Dollar is even stronger than the US Dollar, being one of the few currencies that has outpaced it over recent weeks, trading at long-term high prices two weeks ago.

The Australian Dollar is one of three major currencies whose central banks are on a path of rate hikes rather than cuts, and its path is the strongest and most convincing.

I think the Australian Dollar is an excellent long prospect.

Technically, last week’s candlestick looks bullish as a breakout from the previous week’s inside candlestick, so if the price can get established later above $0.7134, it will be trading in bullish blue sky and could easily go on to make further gains.

AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

BTC/USD is starting to show a very textbook range consolidation between $61,229 and $71,762. This is an extension downwards of the lower border of the range, which is a bearish sign. The daily price chart below shows that a break of this range could be very significant technically. Although there has been lots of bearish pressure on Bitcoin, it may be that long-term investors see it as cheap in this range and are buying it. A convincing bullish breakout above $71,762 could trigger a fast rise to $81,203. This feels the less likely scenario.

A bearish breakdown below the very pivotal long-term low at $61,229 will be a dramatic even and likely trigger a further rapid fall in the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Daily Price Chart

Gold has started to rise convincingly again, although it is still a meaningful way off its record high which it made a few weeks ago. The daily chart below shows that Friday’s rise was especially impressive, with the price closing right on the high of the day and the week.

It looks as if Gold will continue to go higher, and the rise seems to be changing from a grind higher into a firmer upwards move.

The price remains well above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent sharp crash in value, which is another bullish sign.

Trend and momentum traders who do not want to wait for long-term breakouts will probably want to be long here already. I prefer to wait for long-term new high prices, so I will wait for a daily close above $5,418.55 before I enter a long trade.

Another bullish factor is the strong rise in Silver we saw last week, with the price closing above $93 per ounce. Both precious metals are at their highest prices since the huge crash one month ago.

Gold Daily Price Chart

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of Gold following a daily (New York) close above $5,418.55.
2. Short of Bitcoin following a daily (New York) close below $61,000 targeting $50,000.

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Euro–Japanese yen (EUR/JPY) is quoted around 182.569 as of 11:12am (UTC) on 20 February 2026, trading within an intraday range of 182.082–183.039. The cross is holding close to the European Central Bank’s latest euro reference rate for the yen, which stood near 182.05 JPY per EUR on 19 February 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The latest flash Eurozone composite PMI for February printed above both forecasts and the prior reading (Reuters, 20 February 2026), while Japan’s national CPI has eased to its slowest pace since early 2022 (MarketScreener, 20 February 2026). This combination has prompted some market participants to reassess the timing and extent of potential BoJ tightening, contributing to a softer yen tone.

EUR/JPY forecast 2026–2030: Analyst price target view

As of 20 February 2026, third-party euro Japanese yen predictions outline a mix of bullish and corrective technical scenarios, with levels clustered around recent trading near 182–185 and mapped against Fibonacci retracements, moving averages, and prior highs. Across these notes, analysts frame targets as conditional paths rather than firm projections, linking them to incoming Eurozone data, Japanese inflation, and the timing of potential Bank of Japan rate moves.

ING Think (quarterly projections)

ING Think sets forecasts for EUR/JPY at 184 in Q1 and Q2 2026, edging to 185 in Q3 and Q4 2026, before moderating to 177 in 2027. This profile implies a relatively stable trajectory through 2026, followed by a projected pullback the following year, based on ING’s macro assumptions for Japan and the broader G10 currency complex. As with other institutional forecasts, these figures reflect scenario-based modelling and remain sensitive to changes in interest-rate differentials, inflation trends, and global risk conditions (ING Think, 20 February 2026).

DailyForex (trend and levels)

DailyForex notes that EUR/JPY is ‘hanging around the 185 yen level’, describing the market as trading within a broader uptrend and holding above its 50-day EMA, with pullbacks characterised as temporary retracements within that structure. The analysis references interest-rate differentials that favour the euro over the yen and identifies potential support zones around 182 and 180. It also highlights the upcoming European Central Bank rate decision as a potential catalyst for volatility, noting that policy surprises could either disrupt the prevailing trend or reinforce it, depending on the outcome (DailyForex, 5 February 2026).

Economies.com (intraday bullish scenario)

Economies.com states that EUR/JPY ‘keeps the positivity’, after reaching 183.15 and consolidating near 182.35. The bullish scenario is described as valid while support at 180.80 holds. The analysis references continued positive signals from technical indicators and suggests that maintaining trade above 180.80 could open the way towards 183.40 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 184.05, while noting that broader sentiment conditions remain relevant (Economies.com, 20 February 2026).

Takeaway: These third-party outlooks indicate a range of potential scenarios. Analysts stress that outcomes remain contingent on BoJ policy signals, Eurozone data, and shifts in global risk appetite.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Euro–Turkish lira: Technical overview

One the daily chart, EUR/JPY trades around 182.569 as of 11:12am (UTC) on 20 February 2026, with price oscillating just below a broad moving-average band defined by the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs at roughly 183, 184, 181 and 176. The same-period EMAs cluster nearby, with the 100-day EMA near 180.7 and the 200-day EMA around 176.5. This configuration leaves the longer-term trend structure intact, even as shorter-dated averages lean softer.

The 14-day RSI sits near 46, in neutral territory, while an ADX reading around 20 indicates a modest, non-directional trend backdrop rather than a strong impulse in either direction.

On the topside, the nearest classic pivot resistance stands at R1 around 186.3; a daily close above this level would place R2 near 189.1 into focus as the next reference area. On the downside, the classic pivot at 184.0 remains an overhead marker, while the 100-day SMA near 181.0 forms an initial moving-average shelf. A sustained move below this zone could expose S1 near 181.2 if selling pressure builds (TradingView, 20 February 2026).

This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

EUR/JPY history (2024–2026)

Over the two years to 20 February 2026, EUR/JPY has trended higher from the mid-150s to the low-180s, advancing in stages rather than in a straight line. The pair spent much of early 2024 consolidating around 160–165, then moved into the high-160s and low-170s through mid-2024 before pushing above 170 during the summer and closing 2024 near 163–165.

By mid-2025, EUR/JPY was trading around 165–170. A subsequent leg higher produced prices in the high-160s to low-170s during the second half of the year, before the pair finished near 184.

So far in 2026, daily prices have mostly remained within a relatively tight 181–186 band. EUR/JPY traded around 182.58 on 20 February 2026 after briefly moving above 186 earlier in the month. Overall, the cross stands noticeably higher than it did two years ago, while still exhibiting short-term volatility within broader ranges.

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