The GBPJPY pair failed to surpass 193.30 barrier yesterday, to push it to form new negative rebound and notice its consolidation near 191.25 now, hinting its surrender to the negative track again.

We notice that the consolidation of the MA55 above the mentioned barrier to confirm confining trading within the negative track for now, to expect suffering additional losses by attacking 190.55 level soon, followed by repeating the pressure on 189.60 support line.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.55 and 192.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EURGBP price faced new negative pressures to force it to break 0.8355 support line and suffer additional losses by reaching 0.8290, to face solid support base and settle above it as appears on the chart.

The frequent stability above the current support and stochastic positive momentum signals allow us to suggest the bullish scenario, to start targeting many positive stations by rallying towards 0.8340 soon, followed by attempting to press on the MA55 at 0.8365.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8300 and 0.8365

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURUSD price keeps rising to hit the broken neckline of the head and shoulders’ pattern that its signs appear on the chart, which turns into key resistance at 1.0385$, as the price needs to breach this level to confirm the continuation of the bullish wave that targets testing 1.0455$ as a next main station.

Until now, the bullish trend still suggested for the upcoming period conditioned by the price stability above 1.0325$, as breaking it represents the key to turn to decline and head to test the previously recorded low at 1.0220$.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0300$ support and 1.0465$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURUSD price keeps rising to hit the broken neckline of the head and shoulders’ pattern that its signs appear on the chart, which turns into key resistance at 1.0385$, as the price needs to breach this level to confirm the continuation of the bullish wave that targets testing 1.0455$ as a next main station.

Until now, the bullish trend still suggested for the upcoming period conditioned by the price stability above 1.0325$, as breaking it represents the key to turn to decline and head to test the previously recorded low at 1.0220$.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0300$ support and 1.0465$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair touched 159.95 level yesterday followed by starting to form correctional bullish rebound, affected by stochastic exit from the oversold areas, to notice targeting the broken additional support at 160.20.

This positive rebound won’t form any threat to the main bearish track by settling below 161.65 barrier frequently, to keep waiting to gather the additional negative momentum and manage to renew the negative attempts to reach 159.10 and 158.35 levels soon.

The expected trading range for today is between 159.10 and 160.80

Trend forecast: Bearish

February 4, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Outlook: GBP/EUR Jumps as Trump Threatens EU Tariffs

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) surged on Monday as market concerns intensified over Donald Trump’s latest trade tariff threats against the EU.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading around €1.2010, up approximately 0.4% from Monday’s opening levels.

The Euro (EUR) came under pressure on Monday after US President Donald Trump expanded his trade war rhetoric to include the European Union.

During a speech late on Sunday, just a day after imposing tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, Trump stated that tariffs on the EU were ‘definitely coming’.

While he did not specify a timeline, he hinted that the measures could be introduced ‘pretty soon’, unsettling EUR investors who fear the potential economic fallout of a transatlantic trade war.

These fears come at a particularly fragile time for the Eurozone, where growth remains sluggish and any disruption to exports could further weaken the region’s economic prospects.

However, Monday’s Eurozone inflation figures offered some support to the Euro, as the latest consumer price index (CPI) showed inflation accelerating.

Preliminary data for January reported that headline inflation rose from 2.4% to 2.5%, while core inflation held steady at 2.7%, defying expectations it would cool.

The persistence of inflationary pressures lifted EUR sentiment as it could make the European Central Bank (ECB) more hesitant about further interest rate cuts in the near term.

The Pound (GBP) strengthened at the start of the week as the UK appeared to escape Trump’s immediate tariff threats.

Unlike his approach to other US allies, Trump suggested that trade discussions with the UK could be more amicable, commenting that he was optimistic about ‘working something out’ with Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

This sentiment, along with the fact that any tariffs imposed on the UK would only hit a tiny portion of GDP due to the country’s relatively small exports directed to the US, helped to support Sterling.

Looking ahead, the Pound Euro exchange rate may struggle to maintain its gains as attention turns to the Bank of England’s (BoE) upcoming interest rate decision on Thursday.

Markets widely expect the BoE to announce a 25bps rate cut following its first policy meeting of the year. While this could weigh on Sterling, the extent of its impact will depend on the bank’s forward guidance.

A more hawkish stance could limit losses or even give the Pound an additional boost.

Meanwhile, the Euro could face further volatility on Wednesday with the release of the latest Eurozone producer price index.

If December’s data reveals a decline in factory prices, it may reinforce concerns about slowing economic momentum and put additional pressure on the Euro.

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British Pound PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Created on February 04, 2025

• As you can see, the Euro has shown itself to be very noisy as the market gapped lower due to the noise that traders had to sift through overnight with the Trump administration firing off 25% tariffs against both Mexico and Canada.
• Then, Trump suggesting that there was something coming for the EU as well.
• We have recovered quite a bit, at least enough to fill the gap, and now we’ve sold off a little bit.

I think what this means at the end of the day is going to be a situation where we are just fading rallies, which has been the game all along. I don’t like the idea of buying the euro and I think there is a hard ceiling near the 1.05 level. With that being said, I don’t even think we get that far. That doesn’t mean that we can’t rally for some time, and it doesn’t mean that we won’t have a situation where things will be volatile and noisy, but I am looking for cheap US dollars. What I mean by that is that if the market does rally and show signs of exhaustion, then I’m willing to short it.

Where am I Watching?

If we were to break down below the 1.02 level, then I think the Euro goes to parity. I think the Euro goes to parity sooner or later anyway, and really that just speeds up the whole timeline. But I think we are probably due for some sideways bouncing around right now in a consolidation range for a market that of course has been very noisy for some time and sees a major difference between the central bank policies. After all, the European Central Bank has cut rates a couple of times while the Federal Reserve is still on hold. That in itself continues to make this an intriguing position to the downside.

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February 3, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling Rises vs Euro and Dollar as UK Avoids Tariffs, for Now

The US Dollar (USD) spiked higher against rival currencies such as the Euro (EUR) and Pound (GBP) on Monday following President Trump’s move to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

The dollar index jumped to 2-week highs at 109.80 and close to 2-year highs.

ING commented; “Unless Donald Trump surprises with a very last-minute de-escalation in tariffs (unlikely) expect DXY to stay bid near this year’s high.”

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slumped to 1.2250 before a recovery to around1.2300.

According to ING; “A bias towards 1.2200 and possibly 1.2100 for GBP/USD looks likely this week, depending on the US trade story.”

Trump insisted that tariffs on the EU were inevitable while the UK was out of line, but he considered that something could be worked out.

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate hit 20-day highs at 1.2030 before settling at 1.2020.

According to ING; “The growing prospect of a global trade war and tariffs heading towards the EU is a clean euro negative.”

Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico with a 10% tariff on China from February 4th.

ING commented; “Investors will be on tenterhooks to see whether any phone conversation today between President Trump and his counterparts in Canada and Mexico can yield any results in 24 hours. Probably not is most people’s guess.”

It added; “The trouble for investors, however, is that the off-ramp to these tariffs remains unclear.”

Danske Bank took a similar view; “Overall, the broad USD remains the key beneficiary of the tariffs and will likely continue to find support amid souring sentiment as markets reprice the risks of escalating trade tensions.”

According to MUFG; “Overall, the tariff announcements from President Trump over the weekend support our forecasts for a stronger US dollar during the first half of this year.”

In theory, the UK should be less vulnerable to the imposition of tariffs, especially as the UK does not run a significant trade surplus with the US.

Nevertheless, the overall fundamentals are fragile and wider deterioration in risk appetite would pose important risks to the UK economy and currency.

Danske Bank commented; “the fragile fiscal position combined with conducting an expansionary fiscal policy leaves the UK vulnerable to the global backdrop. Especially when we see a substantial tightening of global financial conditions, a sharp move higher in global rates combined with historically elevated levels in global long-end yields.”

It added; “This is further amplified in an environment characterised by a sharp sell-off in risk where liquidity becomes scarce since the UK runs a large current-account deficit, which makes GBP vulnerable whenever capital inflows fade.”

Saxo chief macro strategist John Hardy noted the risk of damage to the global outlook; “we are effectively in a trade war with all the associated fallout for growth and prices and disruptions to supply chains and companies.”

He added; “The chief longer-term risk is one of stagflation: weak growth with higher inflation levels.”

Trade concerns will be another headache for the Bank of England which is already facing major uncertainty over the domestic outlook.

There are strong expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates this week with a 25 basis-point move to 4.50% from 4.75%.

At this stage, there has been a limited shift in medium-term pricing with money markets pricing in 80 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025 from 75 basis points late last week.

Exchange Rates Today: 03 Fed 2025 12:45

Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.20171 (+0.19%)
Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.23395 (+0.4%)
Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate (GBP/CHF) is 1.12832 (+0.31%)
Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 1.81007 (+0.1%)
Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 2.00522 (+0.21%)
Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (GBP/NZD) is 2.21528 (+0.39%)
Pound to Norwegian Krone exchange rate (GBP/NOK) is 14.07746 (-0.09%)
Pound to Japanese Yen exchange rate (GBP/JPY) is 190.57972 (-0.18%)
Pound to Swedish Krona exchange rate (GBP/SEK) is 13.81153 (+0.11%)
Pound to South African Rand exchange rate (GBP/ZAR) is 23.27853 (-0.43%)
Pound to Israeli Sheqel exchange rate (GBP/ILS) is 4.44751 (+1.04%)
Pound to Norwegian Krone exchange rate (GBP/NOK) is 14.07746 (-0.09%)
Pound to Singapore Dollar exchange rate (GBP/SGD) is 1.6849 (+0.21%)

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Created on February 04, 2025

• The British pound has had a wild ride during the trading session on Monday as we gapped lower to kick things off only to fill the gap later.
• Keep in mind that a lot of what you are seeing here is panic due to new tariffs coming out of the United States.
• As is usual trading in an era of the Trump administration, things have been volatile.

Unsurprisingly, we’ve already seen a couple of countries come into the fold and be willing to negotiate further, Mexico being the biggest one, of course, as they have said that they would bring 10,000 National Guard troops to the border to stop the fentanyl flowing across the border, as well as migrants. Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that there was a little snippet today about how the EU might get tariffs. He said that the UK had been taking advantage of things, but he thought, and he made it sound like, the situation in the UK was a minor one that could probably be worked through pretty easily. With that being said, it does make sense that the British pound has rallied.

Mexico, Canada, and China

But a lot of what you’ve seen across the Forex world has been in reaction to Mexico coming to the table and willingly looking to help out the United States. That suggests that perhaps this won’t be as ugly as it once was. As I record this, we’re still waiting to see what Justin Trudeau has to say in Canada, which is weird because he resigned, but that’s a whole different story.

With all of this being said, this is a market that I still favor with the downside. That hasn’t changed. This just sets up another opportunity to buy cheaper US dollars down the road. I still believe that the 1.25 level is massive resistance, especially now that we have the 50 day EMA there. So, I’ll be willing to take advantage of any weakness, perhaps some long wick or something to that effect to the upside that shows that we are running out of momentum.

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