The Euro has tried to rally on Wednesday, but continues to see overhead resistance, as we are looking at a market that has no real clarity.

EUR/USD

The Euro has run to the upside initially during the trading session on Wednesday, only to turn around and show signs of weakness.

That being said, the EUR/USD market is likely to continue to be very noisy. I think ultimately, we have to ask some questions of the 200-day EMA, which is where we stalled, and then I think you have to ask questions about the interest rate markets and really what is going on there.

Macroeconomic Factors and Technical Ranges

Because, quite frankly, the interest rate markets, specifically the 10-year yield in the United States, have been drifting a little bit during the trading session on Wednesday, yet again, as traders are trying to price in the idea of free travel through the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East. After all, a lot of what had been priced in was energy inflation.

That being said, during the interest rate decision and following press conference, the Europeans this week did suggest something along the lines of a downturn in the economy, and I think ultimately you have a scenario where the US Dollar will strengthen eventually.

We are close to the middle of the overall consolidation range, with the 1.14 level underneath being a major floor and the 1.1850 level being a major ceiling. As we are right in the middle, I think you would see a reaction.

Keep in mind Friday is Juneteenth in the United States, so liquidity will all but disappear pretty quickly once we get through the Asian session and the Europeans on Friday. We will just drift into the weekend. I just don’t think there’s any real understanding of what’s going on in the Middle East for people to put big bets on right now.

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Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The pair’s price maintained its position below the firm resistance at 215.50 during yesterday’s trading, forcing it to form several corrective waves by targeting the 213.15 level, before attempting to stabilize again above the initial support level located at 213.50.

The proposed scenario for today’s trading depends on the strength of the initial support. Holding above it will give the price an opportunity to renew the bullish attempts and reach some positive targets starting from 214.50 and 215.10 respectively. However, closing negatively below it will strengthen the dominance of the downward corrective bias, forcing the price to incur additional losses by moving toward 212.75 and 212.00 respectively.

The expected trading range for today is between 213.50 and 215.10

Trend forecast: Bullish

The pair’s price did not hold for long above the firm barrier at 185.80, affected by the negative US data, which forced it to postpone the bullish attack and form negative corrective waves, targeting the 184.60 level.

We highlight the importance of maintaining trading above the additional support level located at 184.20, as this would enhance the chances of the price renewing its bullish attempts by moving soon toward 185.50 and then resuming pressure on the previously mentioned barrier. However, a decline below the support and a negative close would force the price to incur additional losses, initially moving toward 183.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 184.35 and 185.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

recovers to 1.33 ahead of BoE decision, but upside may be limited. at a 2-month high on hawkish Fed hold.

GBP/USD Recovers Ahead of BoE Decision, but Upside May Be Limited

GBP/USD has recovered from the two-month low of 1.3260 reached yesterday and is trading back above 1.3300. However, the recovery could prove limited given the broader fundamental backdrop.

Comments from President Trump regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have helped pull oil prices below $75 per barrel, prompting some profit-taking in the U.S. dollar following the overnight rally sparked by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed left unchanged but removed its easing bias. In addition, nine of the 18 policymakers now expect a rate hike this year, reflecting a hawkish tilt that could continue to support the U.S. dollar.

Attention is now turning to the Bank of England rate decision, where policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting. The focus will be firmly on the vote split and any changes in the policy outlook.

The backdrop facing the BoE has shifted materially since its previous meeting. The U.S.-Iran peace agreement, falling oil prices, softer-than-expected inflation and signs of a cooling economy have all reduced pressure on policymakers to tighten policy further.

Oil prices are now around 30% below the levels seen at the previous BoE meeting, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation. Meanwhile, UK came in at 2.8%, below expectations and below March’s 3.3% peak. Inflation is also running below the Bank’s February projections, giving policymakers greater flexibility.

At the same time, growth remains weak. UK contracted by 0.1% in April and labour market conditions continue to soften, reinforcing the case for a cautious approach.

As a result, investors expect the BoE to leave rates unchanged today. The key question is whether softer inflation and weaker growth have persuaded some MPC members to abandon calls for further tightening, resulting in a more dovish vote split.

GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis

GBP/USD faced rejection at the 200-day SMA and broke below its symmetrical triangle pattern, falling to a two-month low at 1.3260. Combined with an RSI below 50, the technical picture continues to favour sellers.

Bears will look to break below 1.3260, the June low, exposing the 1.3200 support level. Below here, the 1.3000-1.3200 support zone comes into focus.

Any recovery would first need to reclaim 1.3340 before bringing the 200-day SMA at 1.3420 into focus. Above here, the 50-day SMA at 1.3475 becomes the next target. A move above 1.3500 would improve the broader outlook and bring 1.3600 into view.

DXY at a 2-Month High After a hawkish Fed Hold

The U.S. dollar rallied sharply in the previous session, reaching a two-and-a-half-month high of 100.55 after the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold.

While the dollar has eased slightly from those highs amid profit-taking and improving sentiment surrounding the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, the broader outlook remains supported by the Fed’s shift in tone.

The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% as expected and removed its easing bias. More significantly, nine of the 18 policymakers now expect a rate hike this year, highlighting growing concern over persistent inflation pressures.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has also signalled a tougher stance on inflation and launched a review of how the central bank communicates policy, marking the beginning of a potentially more hawkish era for the Fed.

Markets have now fully priced in a Fed rate increase by October, supporting Treasury yields and underpinning the U.S. dollar.

DXY Forecast – Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index has recovered from the May low at 97.60, rising to a high of 100.57. The index continues to trade above its rising trendline, as well as the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

Combined with an RSI above 50, the technical picture remains supportive of further gains.

Buyers will need to break above 100.60, a level that capped gains in March, to target 101.00 and then 102.00, the May 2025 high.

Support can be seen at 99.50, where horizontal support, the 20-day SMA and the rising trendline converge. Below here, the 50-day SMA at 99.00 and the 200-day SMA at 98.70 come into focus. A break below these levels would expose the May 2026 low at 97.60.

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Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Pending Home Sales report for May. The report indicated that Pending Home Sales grew by +3.8% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +0.8%.

Better-than-expected reports provided support to the American currency. However, traders stay cautious as they wait for Fed decision and first comments from new Fed Chair Warsh.

A successful test of the resistance at 99.70 – 99.85 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range.

EUR/USD Pulls Back Ahead Of Fed Decision

BitcoinWorld

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rebound Toward 186.50 Possible as Bullish Momentum Builds

The EUR/JPY currency pair is showing signs of a potential rebound toward the 186.50 resistance level, as technical indicators point to a prevailing bullish bias in the market. Traders are closely watching key support levels and macroeconomic drivers that could influence the pair’s next move.

Technical Setup Favors Further Upside

From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY has been consolidating above the 184.00 support zone after a brief pullback earlier this week. The pair is now trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which typically signals bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 58, indicating room for further upside before entering overbought territory. A decisive break above the 185.50 immediate resistance could open the door for a move toward the 186.50 level, a key psychological and technical barrier.

Fundamental Factors Supporting the Euro

The euro has been supported by improving economic data from the Eurozone, including better-than-expected industrial production figures and resilient services sector activity. The European Central Bank’s cautious stance on further rate cuts has also provided a floor for the single currency. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains under pressure as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rate differentials wide in favor of the euro.

What Traders Should Watch

Key levels to monitor include the 184.00 support zone, where buyers have stepped in multiple times this month. A break below that level could negate the bullish outlook and signal a deeper correction toward 182.50. On the upside, sustained trading above 185.50 would confirm the bullish bias and make 186.50 the next target. Traders should also watch for any unexpected policy signals from the Bank of Japan or European Central Bank that could shift sentiment rapidly.

Conclusion

The EUR/JPY outlook remains cautiously bullish in the near term, with technical and fundamental factors aligning to support a potential move toward 186.50. However, traders should remain aware of resistance levels and the risk of sudden reversals driven by central bank commentary or geopolitical developments.

FAQs

Q1: What is the key resistance level for EUR/JPY right now?
The immediate resistance is at 185.50, with a more significant barrier at 186.50. A break above 185.50 would strengthen the bullish case.

Q2: Why is the yen weak against the euro?
The yen is under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy, which keeps Japanese interest rates very low compared to the Eurozone, making the euro more attractive to yield-seeking investors.

Q3: What could reverse the bullish bias in EUR/JPY?
A break below the 184.00 support level could reverse the bullish outlook. Additionally, unexpected hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan or a sharp risk-off event could trigger a yen rally.

This post EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rebound Toward 186.50 Possible as Bullish Momentum Builds first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate has moved sideways in the past few days as traders focus on the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions. It was trading at 0.8627, down from last year’s high of 0.8865. It has formed two major chart patterns, pointing to more downside.

The daily chart shows that the EUR to GBP exchange rate has pulled back in the past few months. It has retreated from a high of 0.8865 in November last year to 0.8628. 

A closer look shows that the pair has found substantial support at 0.8615, its lowest level on February 5,  March 19, and May 25. This support is part of the descending triangle pattern, whose upper side connects the highest swings in November last year and February and May this year. The descending triangle is a common continuation sign in technical analysis

The pair has also formed a small head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish sign. Also, it also remained below the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA).

Therefore, the pair will likely have a strong bearish breakout in the near term, potentially to the key support at 0.8545, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. 

EUR/USD chart | Source: TradingView

The EUR/GBP pair has come under pressure in the past few days as investors waited for the upcoming ECB interest rate decision. Economists polled by Reuters expect Christine Lagarde and her team to deliver the first interest rate hike of the year. 

If this happens, the bank will hike rates by 0.25% to 2.40% and the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. It will be the first time that the bank has hiked interest rates since September 2023. Also, it will be a big reversal after the bank delivered several interest rate cuts last year.

The bank’s rate hike will come as it combats the elevated inflation, which has continued rising in the past few months. Data shows that the headline CPI rose to 3.2% in May from 3.0% in the previous month. It has jumped sharply from the year-to-date low of 1.7%. Anal

The next key catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged in its meeting next week.

The most recent data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index retreated to 2.8% in April, helped by the ongoing government actions. Still, Polymarket traders are predicting that the bank will hike interest rates in the coming months as inflation ticks up again. 

The British pound has been somewhat noisy on Tuesday as we are looking at this market through the prism of a market that is at “fair value.”

GBP/USD

The British pound has been all over the place during trading here on Tuesday as we continue to squeeze right around the 200-day EMA. In fact, the 50-day EMA is here as well, so with all of that being said, I think we’ve got a situation where traders are looking at this as being essentially fair value between the 1.3250 level underneath offering support and the 1.3550 level above offering resistance.

As we are basically in the middle of that, it’s not a huge surprise to see that this market is likely to continue to just bounce around there. After all, this is a market that features 2 currencies that have a reasonably high interest rate attached to them, with the British pound actually being the bigger of the 2. This is why the British pound typically fares so well against the US dollar in comparison to some of its compatriots.

Key Technical Levels and Market Outlook

At this point, if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Tuesday, then I suspect we will go visiting the 1.33 region again. If we can break above the high of the Monday candlestick, that could lead to a move to the 1.35 handle.

In general, I think this is a sideways range-bound market on short-term charts that traders will continue to take advantage of going forward until something structurally changes.

Right now, there’s a little bit of positivity out there due to the idea that there might be a peace deal between the Americans and the Iranians that actually lasts. So, we’ll see how this behaves, but right now we’re just, I think, working off some of that volatility through calm, sideways trading.

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Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

eases modestly despite inflation unexpectedly holding steady. drifts lower ahead of the FOMC .

FTSE Eases Despite Inflation Unexpectedly Holding Steady

The FTSE is little changed as investors digest softer-than-expected UK inflation data ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England rate decision, alongside falling energy prices.

Data showed unexpectedly remained unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year in May, below expectations for a rise to 3.0%, suggesting price pressures were easing even before the recent collapse in oil prices following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement.

On a monthly basis, rose 0.2%, down from 0.7% in April and below forecasts of 0.4%. , which excludes more volatile components such as food and fuel, rose to 2.6% from 2.5%, but remained below expectations of 2.7%.

Delving deeper into the figures, falling food prices helped offset higher airfares and petrol prices. Meanwhile, service sector inflation rose to 3.7%, slightly above expectations, pointing to sticky domestic inflationary pressures.

Even so, the broader picture supports the Bank of England’s wait-and-see approach. Softer inflation, a weakening labour market and a recent contraction in reduce the need for further policy tightening, particularly as falling oil prices should ease inflation pressures in the months ahead.

has fallen to around $80 per barrel, a three-month low, following the preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement and expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy prices should eventually feed through to lower fuel and transport costs across the economy.

The market scaling back expectations for further BoE tightening has helped rate-sensitive sectors such as housebuilders outperform. Meanwhile, energy stocks are under pressure from falling oil prices, while utilities have also weakened.

Looking ahead, attention turns to the FOMC decision later today. A more hawkish-than-expected could support the and weigh on , which may benefit the multinational-heavy FTSE 100 through overseas earnings translation. However, higher global bond yields could also limit gains in broader equity markets.

FTSE Forecast – Technical Analysis

The FTSE continues to trade within a descending triangle pattern. The index recently rebounded from support around 10,170, recovering above the 50-day SMA and testing falling trendline resistance.

A break above the trendline would weaken the bearish pattern and a move above 10,570, the June high, would create a higher high, opening the door towards 10,725, the April peak.

On the downside, initial support can be seen at the 50-day SMA around 10,400. A break below 10,170 would create a lower low and expose the 200-day SMA at 10,000.

USD/JPY Drifts Lower Ahead of the FOMC Rate Decision

USD/JPY is drifting lower towards the 160.00 level as traders await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh later today.

The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, attention will focus on the policy statement, updated economic projections and the dot plot for clues regarding the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

The FOMC decision comes amid an improving backdrop as falling oil prices and the prospect of a lasting U.S.-Iran agreement have lowered inflationary worries. However, U.S. inflation remains elevated at 4.2%, while the labour market continues to show resilience.

Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike later this year. If Warsh does not push back against those expectations, investors may interpret that as a hawkish signal, supporting the U.S. dollar. Conversely, if he does push back, then this could raise questions about his credibility as inflation is double the Fed’s target level.

This highlights the delicate balancing act facing the new Fed Chair in his first meeting, having been selected by Trump who has been vocal about wanting rate cuts.

The decision comes shortly after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level since 1995. However, the move had little impact on markets as it was largely anticipated. The yen remains weak near 160 per dollar and the continues to trade close to record highs.

The pair’s proximity to 160 keeps investors alert to the possibility of intervention from Japanese authorities, who have previously acted to support the currency around these levels.

USD/JPY Forecast – Technical Analysis

USD/JPY continues to trade above its rising trendline and above both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

However, momentum is slowing, with a bearish RSI divergence emerging as price tests resistance around 160.60. While not a reversal signal on its own, it suggests upside momentum is weakening despite higher highs in price.

Buyers need to break above 160.70, the 2025 high, to bring 162.00 into focus, the 2024 peak.

On the downside, support is seen around 160.00 and the 20-day SMA. Below here, the 50-day SMA near 159.00 comes into focus, followed by 158.00 and rising trendline support.

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