Created on April 16, 2025

• During the trading session on Tuesday, we have seen the euro initially tried to rally against the British pound, but it got absolutely crushed as it looks like we are trying to drum back down toward the 0.85 level.
• This is an interesting trade that I talked about recently, but I also think the limited downside should be kept in the back of your mind.
• I think the real story will be told at the crucial 0.85 level, because if it does in fact end up holding as support, that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign.

Noisy Tariff Wars and Such

Keep in mind that there is a lot of noise out there with tariff wars, and while these 2 currencies don’t reflect a couple of economies going after each other, the reality is that the euro had gotten overbought against the US dollar and a whole host of other foreign currencies, so it needed to pull back. The question now is whether or not it can find its footing in turn things around? I do think the 0.85 level will tell the story. Furthermore, you need to keep in mind that Friday has most major economies shutting down large portions of their markets, so this decision may end up being made after the ECB press conference on Thursday.

I do think that it’s very unlikely that the markets will be easy anytime soon, and I just don’t think that this currency pair will be any different. Keep in mind that the pip value in this market is higher than many others, so it doesn’t take as much real estate to make a profit here. If you can make 50 pips in this chair, it’s a lot more impressive than other currency pairs such as the USD/JPY. Ultimately, I think we are getting close to an area where some value hunters might be interested, but I suspect that the next 2 days could be somewhat stagnant in this pair, before setting up for a bigger trade.

Ready to trade our daily forecast and analysis? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers UK to check out.

April 16, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: Scope for GBP/USD Gains to 1.3290 say UoB

Market fear has eased considerably over the past 24 hours with gains in US equities and bonds.

The FTSE 100 index traded 0.9% higher in early trading, maintaining the recovery from last week’s slide.

Deutsche Bank commented; “Whilst equities were recovering, arguably a bigger relief for investors was the recovery in the bond market, which eased fears about some sort of serious financial turmoil developing.”

The Pound remains correlated strongly with global risk conditions and the currency gained important support from a rebound in asset prices.

Dovish Fed rhetoric also hampered the dollar in global markets.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate surged to 6-month highs around 1.3240 and Sterling also posted net gains on the crosses.

UoB sees scope for further GBP/USD gains to 1.3290.

ING sees a bias for EUR/USD to strengthen to 1.15 and, if this scenario plays out, GBP/USD is likely to extend gains.

There is still an important element of caution surrounding the implications of US trade policies.

According to MUFG; “While we are seeing carve-outs emerge from Trump’s trade policy there is unlikely to be any let-up over the coming weeks/months. The next dangerous stage for the financial markets will be getting confirmation of the damage being done to the real economy from the tariff hit and the uncertainty.”

The latest UK labour-market data was mixed. The number of people on payrolls declined 8,000 for February and there was a provisional 78,000 slide for March.

Vacancies declined for the 33rd successive month and dipped below pre-pandemic levels.

The annual increase in headline wages growth increased marginally to 5.9% from a revised 5.8% previously while underlying growth was unchanged at 5.6%, further evidence of sticky wages increases.

According to ING; “The latest one-month and three-month changes in private-sector pay show that the pressure isn’t really abating. The latest rise in the National Living Wage will also keep pay growth supported through the spring.”

Pantheon Macroeconomics chief UK economist Rob Wood commented; “we would treat the initial estimate of payrolls with a large bucket of salt because the 78,000 month-to-month fall will get raised markedly in next month’s figures to around no change if revisions continue to follow the pattern of the past couple of years.

Nevertheless, he added; “There is enough here for the MPC to cut interest rates in May and to signal further reductions ahead. Accordingly, rate setters will likely sound a little more dovish at their May meeting, especially after the economic and market ructions following President Trump’s tariff hikes.”

ING also remains confident that there will be a May BoE rate cut.

Any potential negative Pound impact from BoE rate cuts would be offset if US rates decline.

There were dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller on Tuesday. If there is notable disruption from tariffs he noted; “With a rapidly slowing economy, even if inflation is running well above 2%, I expect the risk of recession would outweigh the risk of escalating inflation, especially if the effects of tariffs in raising inflation are expected to be short lived.”

He implied that the Fed will look through higher inflation and markets are expecting at least three rate cuts this year.

MUFG commented; “This kind of scenario points to a potential notable further decline in real yields, possibly into negative territory, at the front-end of the curve which is an unfavourable development for the dollar.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Dollar Forecasts

Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.

April 15, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Strikes Six-Month Best on UK-US Trade Deal Hopes

GBP/USD climbed to a six-month best buy exchange rate on Tuesday, buoyed by a risk-positive market mood and rising speculation over a potential UK-US trade agreement.

The Pound exchange rates enjoyed support on Tuesday as investors embraced riskier assets, pushing the increasingly risk-sensitive UK currency higher against its safe-haven counterparts.

This rally came despite a mixed UK labour market report. While wage growth remained relatively robust in the three months to February, the figure undershot forecasts, prompting some traders to raise their expectations for a potential Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut in May.

Adding to Sterling’s strength were fresh signs of progress towards a UK-US trade deal. Comments from US Vice-President JD Vance suggested the UK could secure more favourable terms than its European peers, stating:

‘I think there’s a good chance that, yes, we’ll come to a great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries.’

The remarks helped lift sentiment toward the Pound throughout the session.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) came under pressure on Tuesday as investors shifted away from the safe-haven currency in favour of riskier assets.

Sentiment was boosted after the US confirmed that electronics would be excluded from the newly announced 145% tariffs on imports from China.

Additionally, Donald Trump signalled that potential tariffs on imported cars and car parts could be delayed, giving automakers more time to establish production facilities on American soil.

This combination of easing trade tensions and upbeat risk appetite left the US Dollar struggling for support.

Looking ahead, the UK’s latest consumer price index, due Wednesday morning, could shape the direction of GBP/USD.

Analysts are forecasting a modest slowdown in inflation, which may reinforce expectations of a BoE rate cut and apply downward pressure on the Pound.

Later in the day, US retail sales data for March is expected to show strong growth – a result that could help the US Dollar recover some ground.

Traders will also be keeping an eye on developments around US trade policy and potential UK-US trade talks. While recession concerns in the US could continue to drag on the Dollar, any renewed optimism about a trade pact could offer the Pound fresh support.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday and then again, here early on Tuesday. This is a market that’s trying to find its bottom. And it is probably worth noting that the yen is starting to sell off a bit against other currencies. So, this might be more of a yen story at the moment. But nonetheless, if we can clear the 145 yen level to the upside, it’s likely that we will see a bit of follow through. The 140 yen level underneath is probably your next major support level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied again in early trading on Tuesday, but quite frankly, this currency pair is the poster child of an overbought currency situation. After all, this assumes that China is just suddenly going to have smooth things over with the United States and vice versa because the Australian dollar, of course, is highly sensitive to the Chinese situation.

Furthermore, we have the 200 day EMA sitting just above the 0.64 level, an area that’s been resistance multiple times. And we got here pretty quickly. So, we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out. Signs of exhaustion could very well lead to selling towards the 0.62 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• EUR/USD fluctuates in a narrow band below 1.1400 on Tuesday.
• The bullish bias remains intact in the short-term technical outlook.
• Investors could refrain from taking large positions ahead of the ECB’s policy announcements.

EUR/USD moves up and down in a narrow channel at around 1.1350 after posting small gains on Monday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact but investors could remain on the sidelines, waiting for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements due Thursday.

The improving risk mood helped EUR/USD hold its ground at the beginning of the week. On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) found its footing following the previous week’s steep decline and limited the pair’s upside amid easing fears over a deepening global trade conflict.

In an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States (US) National Economic Council (NEC), said that they are making “enormous progress” on tariff talks with the European Union.

The US economic calendar will feature the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey, alongside the Imports Price Index and Export Price Index data for March. A significant decline in the Empire State Manufacturing Index could revive concerns over an economic downturn in the US and caused the USD to come under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction.

Meanwhile, the data from the Eurozone showed that Industrial Production expanded by 1.1% on a monthly basis in February, surpassing the market expectation for an increase of 0.2%. On a negative note, ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment slumped to -18.5 in April from 39.8 in March.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60 on Tuesday, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact in the near term. Additionally, EUR/USD holds comfortably above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).

On the upside, 1.1400 (psychological level, static level) aligns as first resistance before 1.1470 (static level) and 1.1500 (round level). Looking south, first support could be spotted at 1.1340 (static level) ahead of 1.1300 (static level, round level) and 1.1250 (static level).

(This story was corrected on April 15 at 09:41 GMT to say that ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment slumped to -18.5 in April, not February.)

Platinum price formed a new bullish rally achieving $958.00 level, then rebound directly to settle near the barrier at $950.00 level, affected by the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators.

The price might be forced to form mixed sideways trading, but the main stability above the support level at $920.00 represents a main factor that motivates the bullish trading, reminding you that the main targets settled near $966,00, and surpassing it will confirm regaining the main bullish bias, by its stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image.

The expected trading range for today is between $940,00 and $966.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price formed a new bullish rally achieving $958.00 level, then rebound directly to settle near the barrier at $950.00 level, affected by the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators.

The price might be forced to form mixed sideways trading, but the main stability above the support level at $920.00 represents a main factor that motivates the bullish trading, reminding you that the main targets settled near $966,00, and surpassing it will confirm regaining the main bullish bias, by its stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image.

The expected trading range for today is between $940,00 and $966.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on April 15, 2025

• The euro initially spiked during the trading session on Monday, but it looks like the 0.8650 level will continue to be major resistance, as it has been multiple times in the past.
• Ultimately, this is a pair that tends to be very noisy, and the recent shot straight up in the air is very unusual.
• With that being said, the market is likely to continue to look at this as a potential shorting opportunity, as we continue to see a lot of wicks to the upside, and we just can’t seem to hang on to the gains.

Technical Analysis

Analysis for this pair is obviously very bullish from the last couple of weeks, but when you look out at the longer-term charts, it makes a lot of sense that we could failure, because it’s an area that’s been important multiple times. In fact, I can see reactions to this level multiple times over the last several years, and that does suggest that perhaps a bit of a pullback is coming. If we do in fact fall from here, then I would anticipate buyers to come back into the picture near the 0.8520 level.

On the other hand, if we turn around and rally at this point, breaking above the 0.8750 level could very well turn this market into a runaway market on the upside. I find that a little bit difficult to swallow, but I suppose it’s possible. If that were to happen, then I think you would see the British pound suffer against most currencies, and the Euro just simply runaway against currencies at the same time. All things being equal though, the euro is overbought, and I think a pullback makes more sense than not.

All things being equal, this is a market that doesn’t typically move this quickly, and I think that in and of itself could have ramifications as to where we are going. Ultimately, this is a shorting opportunity that has a low risk to reward, mainly due to the fact that it would take so little to stop you out if you put your stop loss just above the 0.8650 area, perhaps by 20 pips or so. The downside could be the 0.8520 level rather quickly, maybe even the 0.85 level without changing the trend at all.

Ready to trade our daily forecast and analysis? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers UK to check out

Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.