Created on April 07, 2025

• The collapse of global stock markets, led by the US, has weakened the recent strong gains of the British Pound.
• Obviously, we have often noted that positive investor sentiment and the strength of global stock markets are factors in the upward gains of the GBP/USD pair.
• During last week’s volatile trading, the GBP/USD pair jumped towards the 1.3207 resistance level, its highest in six months, before quickly plummeting to the 1.2852 support level, its lowest in a month, before closing the week’s trading stable around 1.2898.

Weak Financial Markets Threaten Sterling Gains

According to Forex market trading, market confidence has continued to collapse since the announcement of US tariffs, with growing concerns about the future of the US and global economies. Stock markets also remained under pressure, with the UK’s FTSE 100 index falling by 2.9% to its lowest level in 12 weeks, while US futures fell by 1.7% before the open. Consequently, the decline in stock markets has hurt the British Pound, with the GBP/USD exchange rate falling from its 6-month high of 1.32 yesterday to trade near the psychological support level of 1.2800. The GBP/EUR exchange rate also fell to its lowest level in 10 weeks near 1.1800.

For its part, Bank of America pointed to global risks; US tariff increases exacerbate the risks of a global growth slowdown: Economists indicate that the recently announced US tariff increases could reduce global GDP growth by at least 50 basis points, with a potential impact of 100 to 150 basis points on US GDP growth, 100 basis points on China’s growth, and 40 to 60 basis points on Eurozone GDP growth. They added, “This comes amid a recent slowdown in US growth due to a decline in consumer spending.”

The loss of confidence in the global economy has been evident in energy markets, with benchmark oil prices falling to a three-year low.

The dollar has managed to regain some strength in global markets, but sentiment remains extremely fragile.

In general, the UK is vulnerable to volatility in the global economy and international asset markets, while expectations regarding Bank of England policy have shifted significantly. Financial markets are now pricing in just over an 85% chance of an interest rate cut in May, which is very close to pricing in three more rate cuts over the remainder of 2025.

Trading Tips:

The GBP/USD will not recover without a return to confidence in financial markets and a resurgence of investor risk.

Key Factors Influencing the GBP’s Performance

According to the economic calendar data, February’s GDP data will be the highlight for Britain, revealing the health of the economy before the imposition of tariffs. A slight increase is expected after January’s decline. On another front, Bank of England Deputy Governors Clare Lombardelli and Sarah Breeden are scheduled to deliver speeches on Wednesday, while the central bank will release the minutes of the March Financial Policy Committee meeting.

Also, we saw a further decline in UK bond yields, with the 10-year yield hitting a 16-week low of 4.40%. Likewise, Lower bond yields will have a positive impact on reducing debt interest payments. Therefore, uncertainty about trade policy will inevitably remain high in the short term.

According to reliable trading company platforms, the British Pound ended last week’s trading with a sharp decline against the Euro and the US Dollar after a historic $2 trillion loss in the US stock market. The GBP/EUR pair traded at 1.17647 and the GBP/USD pair at 1.28936, as fear dominated global markets with a strong demand for safe-haven assets. For example, the S&P 500 index recorded a 4.8% decline, its largest drop since 2020, and all global markets experienced widespread losses.

The UK’s FTSE 100 stock index saw further losses of 1.5% on Friday, reaching its lowest level in 11 weeks.

According to Forex market trading, the Yen and the Swiss Franc are traditional defensive currencies and have seen strong demand over the past 24 hours. The US Dollar recorded sharp losses before witnessing a limited rebound on Friday, while the decline in high-risk assets undermined the British Pound.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

Rapid movements in the GBP/USD pair are fuelling speculation about the future direction of the GBP/USD pair, based on the performance on the daily chart. Technically, a move towards the 1.2800 psychological support level would threaten the recent upward shift. Technically, bulls will have no chance of regaining control of the trend without a resurgence above the 1.3050 resistance level. Furthermore, the pair will not have any chance of rising without a return of market confidence and increased risk-taking by investors.

Ready to trade our daily Forex GBP/USD analysis? We’ve made this UK forex brokers list for you to check out.

• The USD/JPY forecast shows solid demand for safe-haven assets like the yen.

• Trump announced new tariffs affecting almost all its trading partners.

• Market participants are pricing a higher 55% chance of a Fed rate cut in May.

The USD/JPY forecast shows solid demand for safe-haven assets like the yen amid growing global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the dollar slipped as market participants worried about the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the economy. At the same time, the greenback faced pressure from a rise in Fed rate cut expectations. 

–Are you interested to learn more about South African forex brokers? Check our detailed guide-

The yen held steady at the start of the week as safe-haven demand remained high. Traders started flocking to Japan’s currency last week after Trump announced new tariffs affecting almost all its trading partners. As a result, worries about an escalation in trade wars dampened risk appetite. 

At the same time, market participants worried about the impact of these tariffs on the US economy. Most major companies depend on exports and imports. Therefore, an increase in prices will directly impact business. 

Moreover, the labor market might suffer as companies reduce their workers to adjust to the rising costs. Such an outcome would put pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs and spur growth. Currently, market participants are pricing a higher 55% chance of a rate cut in May.

USD/JPY key events today

Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from Japan or the US. Therefore, they will keep digesting recent US trade policy changes.

USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears poised to make new lows below 145.01

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused near the 145.01 support level after a steep decline. Still, the bearish bias remains strong since the price sits far below the 30-SMA with the RSI below 50. 

-If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started-

Bears took over from bulls when the price paused at its peaks and the RSI made a bearish divergence. As a result, USD/JPY broke below the SMA. After pulling back to retest the SMA line, the price collapsed in a steep downtrend, breaking below the 146.75 support. The decline has paused at the 145.01 level, allowing the price to retest the recently broken 146.75 level. 

Given the solid bearish bias, the price might soon break below 145.01 to make a new low. However, if the support holds firm, it might consolidate before breaking below the support.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

April 7, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR Awaits EU Tariff Retaliation, USD to Weaken

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) was subject to extreme volatility after President Trump imposed widespread tariffs on global economies.

As fear stalks major markets, the European reaction will be a crucial test for market sentiment

After a surge to 6-month highs near 1.1150, there was a slide to below 1.0950 as equity markets came under heavy pressure and Fed Chair Powell ruled out an emergency interest rate cut.

There are likely to be big changes in investment bank forecasts over the next few weeks.

According to BNP Paribas; “Our base case is for moderate EURUSD gains in 2025 (to 1.12) and substantial gains in 2026 (to 1.20), as the Fed starts cutting rates in 2026.”

On a near-term view it also now forecasts that EUR/USD will strengthen to 1.14.

In contrast, HSBC expects that the dollar will regain ground.

Risk conditions deteriorated rapidly and heavily as fears over the global economy intensified and Fed Chair Powell ruled out any emergency rate cut.

There were sharp gains in defensive assets, notably the Swiss franc with the dollar initially under heavy pressure before recovering ground as China announced retaliation.

According to ING; “Remember that if investors don’t like the dollar – and the US is the epicentre of the story – then the next most liquid G10 currency is the euro.”

The US Administration announced a baseline 10% tariff on all imports into the US which came into effect on April 5th.

Many major countries, however, were given additional tariffs. Although labelled as reciprocal, the extra levies simply punished countries running trade surpluses with the US and were, therefore, also a designed as a political weapon.

The overall EU tariff was set at 20%, Japan at 24% and China at 34%. These are scheduled to come into effect on April 9th.

China announced retaliation on Friday with 34% tariffs on US exports.

Over the medium term, the relative economic impacts will be very important for markets and FX rates.

In this context, potential retaliation by the EU, diplomatic negotiations and the next US Administration moves will be crucial.

The EU Commission is planning to announce counter-tariffs this week, potentially on certain categories rather than universal tariffs.

A measured EU stance could underpin risk appetite.

MUFG also commented; “Hopefully, the deepening financial market sell-off will put pressure on President Trump and other countries to quickly reach deals to water down the proposed tariff hikes and provide some relief for financial markets.”

Investors will still be braced for a long-term impact.

According to HSBC; “Markets need to digest a global economic slowdown, not just a US one. When this reality sinks in, the US will likely regain its relative allure in this potential race to the bottom for economic activity.”

Monetary policy will also be a key element. There are now strong expectations that the ECB will cut rates this week with two further reductions over the remainder of the year.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that it was too early to judge the economic impact of tariffs and stated that the committee would take its time in deciding on any policy changes.

Markets are, however, convinced that the Fed will cut rates by mid-year.

Deutsche Bank considers the risk of a slide in dollar confidence; “The safe haven properties of the dollar are being eroded.”

It added; “Our overall message is that there is a risk that major shift in capital flow allocations take over from currency fundamentals and that FX moves become disorderly.”

The bank also warned over implications for other countries; “The last thing the ECB wants is an externally imposed disinflationary shock from a loss in dollar confidence and a sharp appreciation in the euro on top of tariffs. Expect pushback. We are in the midst of dramatic regime change in markets.”

MUFG noted some hopes for the Euro; “Plans for significantly looser fiscal policy in Germany and reports of EU-wide support measures for growth to offset the negative impact from tariffs are helping to provide support for the EUR at the time when US tariffs will significantly tighten fiscal policy in the US.”

UBS expects the dollar will lose further ground; “First, the US is the focal point and will therefore likely bear the brunt of the economic fallout caused by waging a trade war on multiple fronts. This means US growth faces greater downside risks, implying lower US interest rates and a more dovish Federal Reserve; all of this weighs on the greenback.”

It did, however, note that; “while the focus has been mainly on the US economy over the past two days, the rest of the world will also suffer from increasing trade burdens.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

I wrote on 30^th March that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of Gold, which fell by 1.78%.
2. Long of EUR/USD following a daily close above $1.0951. This set up on Thursday, but the week ended lower by 0.80%.
3. Long of US Copper futures following a daily close above $5.25. This did not set up.

The overall result was a loss of 2.58%, which was 0.86% per asset.

Last week saw the Presidency of the USA announce new tariffs on imports which were set at a flat 10% with many individual countries given higher rates, sometimes considerably so. The key USA trading partners tariffs were set at:

1. China 54%
2. Japan 24%
3. European Union 20%
4. Canada 25%
5. Mexico 25%

The tariffs have been justified as “reciprocal” by President Trump, with the White House publishing an infographic showing the tariffs imposed and the claimed related “tariffs and other barriers to trade” imposed on US exports by the same countries, which were invariably higher, hence Trump’s claim that he is being “kind”. However, the numbers given are extremely questionable and certainly cannot be verified as tariffs or taxes on imports but seem to have been calculated by comparing the balance of trade between the USA and the relevant nation.

No country except China has yet reacted by imposing retaliatory tariffs against the USA. The Trump administration will be hoping that the tariffs on both sides will be mostly negotiated away, which would likely provide a boost to US corporate profits and economic growth. However, if this does not happen, especially with the key US trading partners, it is hard to see how the world will escape a global recession and a renewed spike in inflation.

The tariffs were somewhat worse than expected and have triggered huge market moves which rival the coronavirus crash of 2020 and the market crash of 2008, especially in US stock markets and in certain currencies (especially the commodity currencies and the Japanese Yen) and major commodities, such as foodstuffs, energies, and metals. Markets are extremely volatile, and the usual technical factors will be mostly irrelevant, with the future of the tariffs being the only major question driving prices over the short term.

There were a few important data releases last week which should also be noted:

1. US Average Hourly Earnings – as expected.
2. US Non-Farm Employment Change – this was much better and stronger than expected, showing 228k net new jobs created when only 137k were expected, suggesting the US economy is stronger than thought.
3. US Unemployment Rate – this rose unexpectedly from 4.1% to 4.2%.
4. US JOLTS Job Openings – a bit worse than expected, suggesting a slowing economy.
5. US ISM Manufacturing PMI – this was slightly worse than expected.
6. German Preliminary CPI (inflation) – a 0.3% increase month on month, as expected.
7. Swiss CPI (inflation) – a tick lower than expected, completely flat month on month.
8. Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting – the Cash Rate was left unchanged at 4.10% as expected.
9. US ISM Services PMI – this was worse than expected.
10. US Unemployment Claims –as expected.
11. Canadian Unemployment Rate – as expected, this rose from 6.6% to 6.7%.

The coming week has a lighter schedule of important releases, but the releases are the most important ones in the market. However, unless there is more news about the tariff issue, volatility is likely to be at least a little bit lower this week.

This week’s important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US CPI (inflation)
2. US PPI (Purchasing Power Index)
3. US FOMC Meeting Minutes
4. US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations
5. US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
6. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement
7. UK GDP
8. US Unemployment Claims

For the month of April 2025, I again made no monthly forecast, as the Forex market was dull and there were only mixed long-term trends.

Last week, I made no weekly forecast, as there were no unusually strong movements in any weekly currency crosses.

This week, I make weekly forecasts as there have been very strong price movements in currency crosses:

• GBP/JPY is likely to rise
• AUD/JPY is likely to rise
• GBP/CHF is likely to rise
• NZD/JPY is likely to rise
• EUR/NZD is likely to fall
• EUR/AUD is likely to fall
• GBP/AUD is likely to fall
• AUD/CAD is likely to rise
• NZD/CAD is likely to rise
• NZD/CHF is likely to rise

The Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc were the strongest major currencies last week, while Australian Dollar was the weakest. Volatility increased markedly last week, with more than 75% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. Next week will likely see relatively high volatility as the tariff saga continues, but it will likely be at least a little lower than the volatility we saw last week.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Last week, the US Dollar Index printed a very large bearish candlestick, but the price regained most of its losses at the end of the week, leaving a large lower wick. There was a lot of movement in the Forex market last week due to the US announcing large tariffs on imports.

The price is well below its level of 3 months ago, invalidating its former long-term bullish trend. The price is still above its level from 6 months ago, but not by much. The support level at 102.25 held, and this level is starting to look like the last pivotal defense against the formation of a new long-term bearish trend in the greenback.

It is very difficult to say what will happen next, as the Dollar will be driven by political developments – whether the tariffs are negotiated away, or whether they stay or even increase, is likely to make all the difference.

The NASDAQ 100 Index fell very sharply last week, closing in bear market territory for the first time in almost 4 years. The price is more than 20% off its record high it made just a few months ago and is far below its 200-day moving average. It last saw these levels in August 2024.

The main reason for the strong drop in most global stock markets, and the major US indices in particular, is of course the large tariffs President Trump has imposed on US imports. This tech index is more strongly affected than the broader market, due partly to higher prices of chips which will result, especially from Taiwanese imports. However, the decline is mostly due to uncertainty and a fear of recession.

The price closed near the week’s low, and there is no bottom in sight yet.

The S&P 500 Index fell very sharply last week, closing near bear market territory for the first time in almost 4 years. The price is more than 15% off its record high it made just a few months ago and is far below its 200-day moving average. It last saw these levels in May 2024 almost a year ago.

The main reason for the strong drop in most global stock markets, and the major US indices in particular, is of course the large tariffs President Trump has imposed on US imports. There are many companies which rely upon strong domestic sales in the USA which manufacture abroad that are hard hit. A good example is NIKE, which fell by 14% in one day after the tariffs were announced.

The price closed near the week’s low, and there is no bottom in sight yet. Some analysts are looking to the big round number at 5000 as potential support.

Gold rose firmly last week to reach a new record high just below the round number at $3,200. However, after the new US tariffs were announced, the price see-sawed sharply, selling off strongly twice before closing the week significantly lower, almost three times the long-term average true range off its high closing price. Many trend traders will still be long but will be very close to being shaken out and exiting.

Gold can advance during periods of crisis like the one we are in now but seems to not be behaving as a hedge against risk, and this is common during strongly risk-off markets like we are seeing now.

So, I think it is wise to not be long of Gold right now, unless we get a new record high New York close over the coming week.

The AUD/JPY currency cross fell very strongly over the week, with the Australian Dollar extremely hard hit by Trump’s new tariffs as a major exporter of raw materials for manufacturing, and its close economic ties to China. The Japanese Yen was the week’s big gainer, along with the Swiss Franc, as a safe- haven.

This currency cross is often a barometer of market sentiment, and this is what we see happening here. The price has reached a new 2-year low.

There is a good chance we will see the price rebound somewhat over the coming week, especially if there are any signals of tariff negotiations getting underway, or even if there is no further tariff escalation.

Technically, the fact that we may be seeing a bottom at the big quarter-number of ¥87.50 could also be significant.

It may be wise to drill down and look for a long trade if this bottom continues to hold.

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of Gold following a daily close above $3,134.31.
2. Following these expected movements in the Forex market:
   1. GBP/JPY is likely to rise
   2. AUD/JPY is likely to rise
   3. GBP/CHF is likely to rise
   4. NZD/JPY is likely to rise
   5. EUR/NZD is likely to fall
   6. EUR/AUD is likely to fall
   7. GBP/AUD is likely to fall
   8. AUD/CAD is likely to rise
   9. NZD/CAD is likely to rise
   10. NZD/CHF is likely to rise

Although it might be tempting to short stock market indices or individual stocks, this is a very risky move for beginners. With such high levels of volatility and relevant political factors, stock markets might make a very strong recovery any day.

Ready to trade our Forex weekly forecast? Check out our list of the top 10 Forex brokers in the world.

April 5, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK US Jobs Data Stems Panic Selling, GBP/EUR and GBP/USD Recover

Markets have attempted to stabilise after the US jobs data, but the underlying mood remains extremely fragile.

Earlier, confidence took a further dive following China’s announcement that it would impose retaliatory 34% tariffs on imports from the US.

The move triggered further concerns over retaliation by other countries and increased fears that the global economy would slide into recession.

The FTSE 100 index plunged 4% to 2025 lows before a recovery.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped sharply to lows at 1.2965 before trading just above the 1.3000 level after the US data.

According to Scotiabank; “GBPUSD has retreated back to the psychologically important 1.30 level and momentum is fading from overbought levels. The near-term range is now expected to be bound between support in the upper-1.28s and resistance above 1.31.”

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate slumped to 7-month lows near 1.1750 before a recovery to 1.1800.

SocGen sees crucial near-term GBP/EUR support around 1.1750.

The US employment report recorded an increase in non-farm payrolls of 228,000 for March compared with consensus forecasts of around 135,000, but the February increase was revised lower to 117,000 from the flash reading of 151,000.

The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% from 4.1% while average earnings increased 3.8% over the year from 4.0% previously.

The data will provide immediate relief surrounding the US economy, but markets are also focussed more on the impact of US tariffs and potential trade wars.

Goldman Sachs’s Lindsay Rosner commented; “Today’s better than expected jobs report will help ease fears of an immediate softening in the US labor market. However, this number has become a side dish with the market just focusing on the entrée: tariffs.”

There are also still reservations surrounding the labour market after Challenger recorded a huge job in Federal layoffs.

ING commented; “The rise in job cut announcements during March, tracked by Challenger and released this week, was frankly astonishing. It eclipsed anything we saw in the height of the financial crisis or dot-com bubble.”

According to Scotiabank; “The USD is likely to retain a defensive undertone for the foreseeable future as investors re-allocate capital to more appealing locales.”

The UK construction PMI index recovered slightly to 46.4 for March from 44.6 the previous month.

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented; “March data highlighted a challenging month for UK construction companies as sharply reduced order volumes continued to weigh on overall workloads.”

Global developments are likely to dominate in the short term with developments in risk appetite and equities likely to be the crucial element.

Scotiabank commented; “Broader developments are likely to continue driving movement in GBP, and the near-term outlook for reconciliation on trade appears to be slim as media reports suggest that the US’s 10% tariff rate on UK goods may be a permanent baseline.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts Pound Sterling Forecasts

Copper price gave in to negative pressures and fell below the stable support of $4.8100, and hesitantly approached $4.7400, delaying any attempts at rising even as the price remains within an ascending channel.

As the $5.000 forms as a barrier and negative signals emerge from the Stochastic, the price  will likely head towards $4.6500 then $4.5600.

Expected trading range today is between $4.6500  and $4.9500.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

April 3, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling Slides vs Euro After UK 10% Tariff

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate fell back overnight, after markets reacted to the April 2 US Tariffs.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR traded at 1.1951, a 0.41% decline on the daily opening levels.

GBPEUR had struggled for momentum on Wednesday as investors exercised caution ahead of US President Donald Trump’s impending tariff announcement.

The Euro (EUR) found little support on Wednesday as traders hesitated to take strong positions before Trump’s tariff decision.

The European Union has frequently been the target of Trump’s criticisms over trade imbalances, leading to concerns that the Eurozone economy could face significant disruptions if US tariffs are extended to European goods.

Adding to the uncertainty, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has reiterated that the EU is prepared to retaliate against any aggressive US trade measures, potentially imposing tariffs on American products such as motorcycles, whiskey, and denim.

EUR investors fear that escalating tensions between the US and EU could lead to a prolonged trade conflict, further undermining the Eurozone’s economic outlook.

The Pound (GBP) saw little movement on Wednesday as reports suggested that UK officials had yet to secure exemptions from Trump’s latest round of tariffs.

While discussions between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Trump have been described as constructive, no immediate resolution is in sight.

Even if a deal is reached in the future, GBP investors fear that the UK’s open economy remains vulnerable to disruptions in global trade.

Looking ahead, in addition to the fallout from Trump’s tariff announcement, the Pound to Euro exchange rate may also be influenced by an upcoming speech from European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos on Thursday.

If de Guindos signals that the ECB may need to implement more accommodative policies in response to Trump’s tariffs, the Euro could face additional downside pressure.

Meanwhile, the UK’s latest services PMI could provide some support for the Pound, particularly if the finalised March figures confirm a strong performance in the sector.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

• GBP/USD declines below 1.3000 following Thursday’s impressive upsurge.
• Safe-haven flows continue to dominate the market action on Friday.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls data and Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks on the economic outlook awaited.

GBP/USD climbed above 1.3200 for the first time since early October on Thursday but erased a portion of its daily gains later in the American session. The pair stays under bearish pressure in the European session on Friday and trades below 1.3000.

The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) fuelled GBP/USD rally on Thursday. US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs fed into fears of an economic downturn in the US, forcing the USD to weaken against its peers.

As markets remain risk-averse on Friday, GBP/USD finds it difficult to hold its ground. At the time of press, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index was down nearly 1.5% on the day and US stock index futures were losing between 0.3% and 0.9%.

Later in the day, the US economic calendar will feature the March employment report, which will feature Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and wage inflation figures.

Markets forecast an increase of 135,000 in NFP in March. A significant negative surprise, with an NFP reading at or below 100,000, could weigh on the USD and help GBP/USD find support. Conversely, an NFP print of 160,000 or higher could have the opposite impact on the pair’s action with the immediate reaction.

Ahead of the weekend, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on the US economic outlook at the annual conference for the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing. Powell will also attend a moderated panel discussion afterward.

In case Powell voices his concerns over the growth outlook, citing the new tariff regime, the USD could come under renewed selling pressure. On the other hand, the USD could end the week on a bullish note if Powell puts more emphasis on the upside risks to inflation outlook and reiterates their willingness to remain patient with regard to further policy easing.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are currently pricing in about a 32% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in May. The market positioning suggests that the USD has room on the upside if Powell’s remarks revive expectations for a policy hold at the next meeting.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart dropped below 50, reflecting a bearish tilt in the short-term outlook.

On the downside, 1.2960 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), 50-period SMA) aligns as first support before 1.2935 (lower limit of the ascending channel) and 1.2900 (static level, round level).

In case GBP/USD reclaims 1.3000 (round level, static level), technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, 1.3080 (mid-point of the ascending channel) and 1.3100 (round level, static level) could be seen as next resistance levels.

USD/JPY edged higher in latest intraday trading while trying to recoup some recent losses, as the price also tried to vent off oversold saturation in the Stochastic with positive signals emerging from it.

It comes as the price settles below the pivotal support of 146.65 that was breached yesterday, while hurt by exiting an ascending correctional price channel previously, with the dominance of the main downward trend.

USD/JPY edged higher in latest intraday trading while trying to recoup some recent losses, as the price also tried to vent off oversold saturation in the Stochastic with positive signals emerging from it.

It comes as the price settles below the pivotal support of 146.65 that was breached yesterday, while hurt by exiting an ascending correctional price channel previously, with the dominance of the main downward trend.