Platinum price formed a clear correctional decline, to test the minor bullish channel’s support at $1324.75, to achieve the suggested correctional target in the previous report, then begin forming bullish waves to settle near $1363.00.

The continuation of the fluctuation within the bullish channel’s levels is expected, depending on the stability of the support to expect its rally to $1382.00 and $1400.00. While breaking the support and providing a negative close will confirm its readiness to resume the bearish correctional attack, and $1302.00 level represents the extra negative target.

The expected trading range for today is between $1330,00 and $1382.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

June 29, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: Next up “Psychologically Important 1.40”

The US Dollar has continued to dominated global currency markets and has continued to struggle amid an underlying loss of confidence in the US currency with a particular focus on Federal Reserve policy.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is trading just below 1.3750 and not far below 44-month highs of 1.3770 recorded on Thursday. There is scope for some trimming of GBP/USD longs into the weekend.

Scotiabank noted some worrying signs, but commented; “The 50 day MA (1.3438) remains a critical medium-term level of support and the chart offers little major resistance ahead of the psychologically important 1.40 level.”

It added; “The near-term range is likely to be defined by 1.3600 support and 1.3800 resistance.”

UoB noted the risk of correction; “While GBP could continue to advance, overbought short-term conditions may lead to a couple of days of consolidation first. All in all, the outlook for GBP remains positive, and the next technical objective is 1.3800.”

Dollar developments dominated with no major developments during the day, although traders were monitoring UK budget developments after the U-turn on welfare spending.

As far as US data is concerned, the core PCE prices index increased 0.2% for May compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.1% increase with the year-on-year rate edging higher to 2.7% from 2.6%.

The slightly higher than expected data could discourage centrist Federal Reserve members from backing any near-term cut in interest rates, but rhetoric will continue to be watched closely.

Elsewhere, personal income declined 0.4% on the month with a 0.1% decline for personal spending.

Scotiabank added; “We think risks are tilted squarely towards more immediate and significant dollar losses. The FOMC consensus remains cool on July but speculation of rate cuts will intensify if the run of US data continues to disappoint.”

Monex Europe head of macro research Nick Rees noted the risk of further Fed criticism by the White House and forecast revisions; “I’ll be perfectly honest, I’m currently rewriting them in light of what we are seeing right now.”

He added; “We had thought the dollar should stabilize around current levels because the macro data is about to turn really quite positive.”

Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, “Talk about having the next Fed chair announced within the next couple of months, that would be fairly disruptive.”

She added; “It brings up the whole concern about the credibility and reliability of U.S. institutions again, which is typically something that people don’t like.”

Investec commented; “A successor perceived by the market to be more open to accommodating Trump’s wishes risks damaging the independence of the Fed in setting policy.”

Rabobank also noted potential risks; “An early nomination could make the nominee the “de facto shadow chair” as his comments (only men are reported to be on the shortlist) would carry a lot of weight in the markets regarding monetary policy beyond May 2026 when Powell’s term expires.”

According to Pepperstone’s Chris Weston; “For the dollar to see a sustained counter-rally, I would argue we’d need US growth to pick up and implied Fed rate cuts to be repriced — perhaps with growth data in Europe and China also slowing.”

He added; “That doesn’t seem likely in the near term, and as such, rallies in the dollar are likely to be quickly sold off, with the downtrend set to continue.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Dollar Forecasts

June 29, 2025 – Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Trader Talk of 1.20 EUR/USD Increases

The US Dollar has remained firmly on the defensive with further unease over Federal Reserve policy. There has been further speculation that the Administration will move to undermine central bank independence and aim directly or indirectly to force a near-term cut in interest rates.

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trading just above 1.1700 from 45-month highs just above 1.1740 reached on Thursday.

EUR/USD has posted seven successive daily gains which will potentially expose the pair to a limited correction.

UoB commented, “Further EUR strength still appears likely, but overbought short-term conditions could slow the pace of any further advance. The next level to monitor is 1.1780.”

ING notes that estimates of EUR/USD fair value have increased to around 1.1450 from 1.10 amid a decline in US yields.

According to the bank; “Geopolitical risk has been radically priced out, and most importantly, FOMC divisions have prompted material dovish speculation. This justifies a more bullish view on EUR/USD, but not necessarily a call for 1.20.

It added; “Markets’ enthusiasm for an earlier Fed cut may be misplaced, and EUR/USD may settle back around 1.15-1.16, awaiting conclusive information on inflation.”

According to Scotiabank; “This week it’s definitely been about the Fed, the prospect of easing sooner and potentially more rate cuts.”

Thursday’s US data recorded a decline in initial jobless claims to 236,000 in the latest week from 246,000 previously while there was a further increase in continuing claims to 1.97mn from 1.94mn and the highest figure since late 2021.

There was a downward revision to first-quarter GDP to -0.5% from -0.2%, but durable goods orders posted a stronger-than-expected increase.

Danske Bank noted; “There was a decent decline in US Treasury yields yesterday as well as a steepening of the yield curve on the back of weaker than expected Q1 GDP numbers from the US as well as speeches from various Federal Reserve officials that are indicating forthcoming easing of monetary policy despite the potential impact from Tariffs.”

There have been further rumours of a near-term move to name a successor to Chair Powell and effectively put a “shadow Fed” in play which would undermine official guidance ahead of May 2026 when Powell’s term as Chair is scheduled to end.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia commented; “The sooner a replacement is announced for Powell, the sooner he could be perceived to be a ‘lame duck’.”

She added; “For now, expectations President Trump will choose a more dovish chair will keep downward pressure on FOMC pricing and the USD.”

The leading contenders for next Fed chief reportedly include former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett, current Fed Gov. Christopher Waller, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

RBC BlueBay Asset Management senior portfolio manager Kaspar Hense noted the risk of a dovish appointment: “This is not currently 100% in the price, and it would still move markets if someone like Hassett or Bessent would get the job in order to cut rates, ignoring fundamental risk.”

He added; “We are short the dollar in this environment, where there is an erosion of institutions.”

SocGen’s Kit Juckes added; “I think the market is pricing in President Trump appointing someone who at least at first sight appears more sympathetic to his cause.”

Scotiabank added; “The result of U.S. asset outperformance over the past decade is you’ve got a lot of asset managers that are long the U.S. dollar way more than I think they’re comfortable.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Euro Dollar Forecasts

• The GBP/USD weekly forecast is strongly bullish as the dollar remains broadly weaker amid the Fed’s policy outlook.
• The easing of geopolitical worries and contraction of US GDP further weighed on the dollar.
• Next week’s employment data and US PMIs are essential to watch.

The British pound soared to its highest level since October 2021 against the US dollar, closing the week with a firm 2% gain above the 1.3700 mark. It was a seventh consecutive daily gain for the pair.

The rally was fueled by broader dollar weakness, easing geopolitical worries in the Middle East, and speculations around the Fed’s policy outlook.

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What Happened to GBP/USD Last Week?

The GBP/USD pair started the week with a bearish gap as investors fled to the safe-haven dollar in the wake of America’s attacks on three nuclear sites of Iran. The fear of further escalation after Iran’s warning weighed on the pound and other riskier assets. However, a swift ceasefire restored the peace, and the US dollar collapsed, lending room to the pound buyers.

The Fed’s policy outlook also contributed to the dollar’s further decline. Markets are now pricing in a 21% probability for a July cut and75% for the September cut, driven by dovish commentary from the Fed’s Bowman and Waller. However, Fed Chair Powell maintained a cautious tone due to Trump’s tariffs, which may reignite inflation. However, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, accompanied by a threat to replace the chairman as soon as September, created chaos, resulting in a further sell-off of the US dollar.

The US economic data also reinforced the dovish narrative. The Q1 GDP showed a contraction of 0.5%, but Durable Goods Orders surprised to the upside. On Friday, the Core PCE Index came in at 2.7% y/y, slightly above the estimate, providing a mild bid to the dollar but not enough to offset the broader bearish momentum.

On the UK side, the pound found relative stability due to improved economic sentiment and better business activity.

GBP/USD Key Events Next Week

There is no significant data from the UK next week. However, the markets will be closely watching the US labor market data and the Fed Chair’s speech. The ADP employment is expected to tick up to 105,000 from the previous 37,000 modestly. But the NFP print may continue its decline to 120k from the last 139k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate may also slightly rise to 4.3%.

In addition to these, US Manufacturing/Services PMIs and JOLTs data are also due next week, which may provide impetus to the market.

GBP/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Bulls Pause at 1.3700

The daily chart for the GBP/USD shows a strong bullish momentum, lying well above the key moving averages. However, the price could not hold onto the weekly highs of 1.3770 and corrected downwards. But the 1.3700 continues to support the upside. Meanwhile, the 20-day SMA is at 1.3555, which is almost 150 pips down from the current price. The overextended rally may see some consolidation and reversion to the 20-day SMA before a bullish continuation.

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The daily RSI is still below the overbought territory, which means further gains cannot be ruled out. The pair may test its weekly top at 1.3770 ahead of 1.3800. The ultimate bullish target lies at 1.4000.

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• GBP/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.3700 on Friday.
• The technical outlook suggests that there is room for technical correction.
• Markets await May PCE inflation data from the US.

GBP/USD extended its weekly rally and reached its highest level since October 2021 at 1.3770 on Thursday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase in the European session on Friday and fluctuates slightly below 1.3750.

The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) fuelled GBP/USD’s climb on Thursday. News suggesting that United States (US) President Donald Trump is planning to announce Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s replacement early to undermine him triggered a USD selloff. Additionally, mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US further weighed on the currency.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on Thursday that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at an annual rate of 0.5%, compared to the 0.2% contraction reported in the previous estimate. Other data from the US showed that weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 236,000 from 245,000 in the previous week and Durable Goods Orders rose by 16.4% in May, surpassing the market expectation of 8.5%.

Later in the session, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, for May will be featured in the US economic calendar. Markets expect the monthly core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to rise 0.1%. The market reaction to this data is likely to be straightforward and remain short-lived. A stronger-than-anticipated increase could support the USD in the immediate term.

Investors will also pay close attention to the changes in risk perception heading into the weekend. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up about 0.3%. A continuation of the risk rally could make it difficult for the USD to find demand and allow GBP/USD to inch higher.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart started to edge lower after rising above 70 on Thursday, suggesting that GBP/USD is in a correctional phase before extending its uptrend.

On the upside, interim resistance seems to have formed at 1.3750 ahead of 1.3790-1.3800 (upper limit of the ascending channel, static level) and 1.3860 (static level). Supports could be seen at 1.3700 (static level, round level), 1.3630 (mid-point of the ascending channel) and 1.3600 (static level).

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Copper price took advantage of the positive factors by confirming the obstacle at $4.8900, to notice by the above image, forming a strong bullish rally achieving the main targets by reaching $5.0700 level and settles around it.

By the above image, we notice forming $5.1000 level to previous liquidity grab zones, to form an extra barrier against the bullish trading in the current period, to expect the price affection by the domination of the sideways bias domination temporarily, while the continuation of the fluctuation below this barrier might increase the chance for activating the bearish correctional track, which might target $4.9100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9600 and $5.1000

Trend forecast: Fluctuated with the bullish track

Copper price took advantage of the positive factors by confirming the obstacle at $4.8900, to notice by the above image, forming a strong bullish rally achieving the main targets by reaching $5.0700 level and settles around it.

By the above image, we notice forming $5.1000 level to previous liquidity grab zones, to form an extra barrier against the bullish trading in the current period, to expect the price affection by the domination of the sideways bias domination temporarily, while the continuation of the fluctuation below this barrier might increase the chance for activating the bearish correctional track, which might target $4.9100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9600 and $5.1000

Trend forecast: Fluctuated with the bullish track

Despite the neediness of the GBPJPY pair to the positive momentum, but the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels that pushed it to form a new positive move, to hit the target at 198.80, facing 66.8%Fibonacci correction level as appears in the above image.

The current trading scenario depends on the strength of 198.80 level, if it settles we expect forming bearish correctional trading that might push it to suffer some losses by reaching 197.40 and 169.85, while the price success in achieving the breach and providing a positive close above it, will reinforce the chances for recording extra gains by its rally to 199.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 197.40 and 198.80

Trend forecast: Bearish

June 27, 2025 – Written by James Fuller

STORY LINK Pound to US Dollar Forecast: GBP must hold above 1.3595

The easing of immediate Middle East fears has put the focus firmly back on underlying fundamentals with the dollar sliding amid fresh fears that Fed independence will be compromised.

Following the latest salvo against Fed Chair Powell from President Trump, there has been increased speculation that there will be an early nomination of the next chair and fresh talk that Powell could be dismissed by Trump.

The dollar index has slumped to the lowest level since February 2022 while the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has surged to 44-month highs above 1.3750.

MUFG commented; “Broad-based US dollar weakness helped to lift EUR/USD and cable overnight as they continue to move back closer towards the highs set back in late 2020/early 2021 when they peaked at just above 1.2000 and 1.4000.”

Markets will be looking to attack 1.40 in GBP/USD, although there is tough resistance close to current levels and the dollar is potentially oversold.

ING commented; “Downside risks for the dollar persist, but another 1-2% plunge in DXY will look stretched without any dovish repricing in Fed expectations or tariff/deficit concerns resurfacing.”

UoB noted resistance near 1.3750 and added; “To sustain the buildup in momentum, GBP must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.3595.”

Fed Chair Powell maintained a cautious stance in his second round of testimony to Congress. The rejection of a near-term rate cut has triggered another blast of criticism from President Trump who has again threatened to fire Powell and name a successor quickly.

MUFG noted a Wall Street Journal report that a successor to Powell could be named by September at the latest and potentially next month.

The bank added; “It highlights how an early pick could be used as way to try to undermine the Fed’s policymaking under Chair Powell providing a further potential trigger for a loss of investor confidence in the US dollar.”

There have been reports that Trump is considering former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as potential candidates.

According to MUFG; “Other contenders include former World Bank President David Malpass and Fed governor Christopher Waller.”

The bank summarised; “A candidate who is perceived as being more open to lowering rates in line with President Trump’s demands would reinforce the US dollar’s current weakening trend.”

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore commented; “I think it’s a given that Trump’s pick to succeed Powell, when it comes, will be one that sits at the highly dovish end of the spectrum and will support Trump’s agenda of lowering interest rates.”

He added; “The issue with this is it will resurface questions from earlier in the year around the Fed’s independence, which, as we saw, undermines confidence in the Fed and the USD.”

There has been a shift in market pricing with a rate cut by September now seen as inevitable with markets also seeing the most likely outcome as three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

In contrast, markets are pricing in two Bank of England rate cuts by the end of 2025 which would help underpin the Pound on yield grounds.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts