The EURJPY pair continued the rise to reach the resistance of the targeted bullish channel’s resistance at 169.70 level, which explains the direct correctional rebound towards 168.80, despite the attempts of providing mixed sideways trading, and there is a chance to activate the attempts of gathering gains by reaching 168.05.

While the price success in breaching the resistance and providing a positive close above it, will confirm its move to a new positive station, to begin recording new gains by its rally to 170.40 initially reaching the next barrier near 171.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 168.30 and 169.80

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

• The euro has initially gapped lower against the British pound only to turn around and find this footing again.
• We find ourselves near the 0.8550 level and the market has seen some action here previously.
• So, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Any short-term pullback should see plenty of support near the 0.85 level as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that’s been important previously.

The 50-day EMA is racing towards it and you can see that it could offer a little bit of support. Now, that being said, the market break into the upside faces challenges in the form of 0.86, but that opens up the door to 0.8650. That being said, this is a market that will have a lot of overhang to do with at the moment.

Slow Mover Most Times

Understand that this pair does tend to move somewhat slowly, and therefore I think a lot of retail traders look past it, but it’s a great swing trading pair to get involved with. I think at this point in time, there is a pretty significant cluster above, and it might be difficult for the euro to continue beyond the 0.8650 level.

This is a market that tends to frustrate those who are looking for quick and big moves, so be aware of that. This is a great measuring stick as to which one of these two currencies you might want to trade against the US dollar and in which direction because in this case the euro is stronger than the pound over the last couple of weeks and you will see that the euro has outperformed the British pound against the greenback. So, you can triangulate with this chart as well, using it as an indicator.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• GBP/USD trades at a weekly high near 1.3600 on Tuesday.
• Improving market mood on the Iran-Israel ceasefire supports the pair’s climb.
• Markets await comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

After falling to its weakest level in a month early Monday, GBP/USD made a sharp U-turn and ended the day decisively higher. The pair preserves its bullish momentum and trades near 1.3600 in the European session on Tuesday as market focus shifts to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

News of Iran and Israel agreeing to a ceasefire helped the market mood improve late Monday and caused the US Dollar (USD) to come under heavy selling pressure. As risk flows continue to dominate the financial markets on Tuesday, the USD struggles to find demand and allows GBP/USD to continue to stretch higher. At the time of press, US stock index futures were rising between 0.7% and 1.2% on the day, while the USD Index was down about 0.25%.

After delivering the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, Fed Chairman Powell will respond to questions. Investors will scrutinize Powell’s comments for fresh hints on the timing of the next rate cut.

In an interview with CNBC last Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the Fed is in a position to cut the policy rate as early as July, arguing that they should not wait for the job market to crash to ease the policy. On a similarly dovish note, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that she would be in favour of lowering the policy rate at the next meeting, if inflation pressures were to stay contained.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 20% probability of a rate cut in July. In case Powell leaves the door open for a policy move next month, the USD could weaken further with the immediate reaction, triggering another leg higher in GBP/USD. Conversely, the USD could stage a rebound and cause the pair to correct lower if Powell opposes the view of a July rate cut by repeating that they need more data before deciding on the next policy move.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart edges higher but remains below 70, suggesting that GBP/USD has more room on the upside before turning technically overbought. On the upside, 1.3630 (static level) aligns as the next resistance level before 1.3700 (static level, round level) and 1.3740 (static level).

Looking south, support levels could be spotted at 1.3580 (static level), 1.3530 (100-period Simple Moving Average) and 1.3500 (static level, round level).

• During the trading session on Monday, we had initially seen the US dollar spiked higher against the Japanese yen, as traders started to weigh the idea of a potential “risk off” type of environment due to the Americans bombing the Iranian nuclear sites.
• However, it looks like traders have had a bit of time to think about things that may not be as concerned as they were at the open.

Ceiling Above?

At this point in time, we have to ask whether or not there is a ceiling above, as the ¥148 level is an area that has caused resistance previously, and we have the 200 Day EMA hanging around in the same region. Because of this, I think you have a situation where it would take a lot to get above there, and the concern that we had over the weekend with the airstrike probably wasn’t enough to sustainably cause panic in the market.

Nonetheless, the Japanese yen has a lot of problems in and of itself, as the Bank of Japan has a major problem with the Japanese Government Bond markets, as there have been several days where there were no bids or buyers. Because of this, the Japanese yen is still a currency that I’m not a huge fan of, although of course in a panic we could see people running to it.

All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but that’s nothing new for the Japanese yen. The ¥146 level is an area that has been important multiple times, so the question now is whether or not it will hold as support? That is a level that I would be watching the most right now, as it could determine whether or not we truly fall apart, or if we start to build another range in this market.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• The US dollar initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Friday but then turned around to show signs of life as the ¥145 level is a major support level.
• It’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and it also features the 50 Day EMA, so I believe it makes a lot of sense that it continues to hold as support for short-term traders.
• However, I also recognize that the ¥146 level will be thought of as a major barrier, and if we can break above there, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the 200 Day EMA, which is just above the crucial ¥148 level.

Bottoming Process

I think were in the middle of a bottoming process, but I don’t necessarily think that we are just going to sliced through ¥146 level easily. The fact that we have been bouncing around in this range for a while now makes a certain amount of sense, with the ¥142 level is a major support level, and has offered a bit of a bottom for the market. Ultimately, I think short-term pullbacks are likely, but I also think they are more likely than not going to be bought into, because that is what we have seen over the last several weeks. Ultimately, the interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar, so I think that as a little bit of a buffer anyway.

If we were to break down below the ¥142 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the ¥140 level, which of course is an area that has been supported previously, and it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we see a lot of interest in this area. That being said, the market continues to be very noisy, so look for some type of value in order to take advantage of it on dips, but I’m starting to like the upside much more than I did just a few weeks ago.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• The Euro has had a very strong session against the Japanese Yen, and we are now clearing a major hurdle as we are seeing Japanese Yen weakness across the board.
• It’s interesting because I’m hearing people on some of the financial channels talk about how the Japanese Yen should strengthen quite drastically.
• But what they are glossing over is the fact that nobody is buying Japanese debt. That’s a major issue. So, if the Bank of Japan does in fact, tighten monetary policy, like I’m starting to hear people talk about, there is a cost to that.
• It is probably wiping out their domestic banking system because the Japanese banks hold so much of this debt that nobody is bidding for.

So, you either let the debt go to massive losses in the banking sector or you have to buy it yourself if you’re the Bank of Japan. History tells us they tend to buy it themselves and therefore I think that’s part of what’s going on because even the US dollar is starting to tear up the Japanese yen at this point. Now that we have cleared the 168 yen level, I do think that we are free to go higher, probably as high as 172 yen.

It Will Be Noisy

But it doesn’t necessarily mean that we get there in a straight line. This is also a risk on move as it were, but I think this probably has more to do with the yen itself, at least at the moment. If we pull back, the 165 yen level would be your floor. And although it is 300 points away as I record this, I understand that you’re going to need a lot of pips as far as a stop loss is concerned in order to absorb the potential volatility here.

Markets have been extraordinarily volatile due to basically everything that’s going on in the world. So that translates to smaller sizes and to positions and larger ranges of stop losses. It’s the only thing you can control. With this, think short-term pullbacks continue to be buying opportunities and I do think we will go higher.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• GBP/USD trades at a fresh monthly low below 1.3400 on Monday.
• The US Dollar benefits from escalating geopolitical tensions.
• The technical outlook suggests that there is more room on the downside.

After losing nearly 1% in the previous week, GBP/USD stays under bearish pressure on Monday and trades at its lowest level in a month below 1.3400. In case safe-haven flows continue to dominate the action in financial markets in the second half of the day, the pair could continue to stretch lower.

The negative shift seen in risk sentiment helps the US Dollar (USD) outperform its rivals and weighs on GBP/USD on Monday. Market participants grow increasingly worried about a widening and deepening conflict in the Middle East following the United States’ decision to strike three nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend.

Meanwhile, the data from the UK showed that the business activity in the private sector expanded at an accelerating pace in June, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improving to 50.7 from 50.3 in May. This reading, however, failed to support Pound Sterling.

Later in the day, the US economic calendar will feature S&P Global PMI data for June. Markets expect the Manufacturing PMI to edge lower to 51 from 52 in May and see the Services PMI retreating to 52.9 from 53.7. In case either of these PMIs come in below 50, the USD could come under selling pressure. Nevertheless, the market reaction could remain short-lived in the current market environment, with investors staying focused on geopolitics. A further escalation in the Iran-Israel crisis could boost the USD and cause GBP/USD to extend its slide in the near term.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declines toward 30 and GBP/USD continues to pull away from the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a buildup of bearish momentum.

On the downside, 1.3340 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as the next support level before 1.3300 (round level, static level) and 1.3260 (Fibonacci 78.6 retracement). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3400 (Fibonacci 50% retracement), 1.3450 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA) and 1.3500 (static level, round level).

• EUR/USD trades below 1.1500 in the European session on Monday.
• Mixed PMI data releases make it difficult for the Euro to find demand.
• The US Dollar is likely to stay resilient against its rivals unless the risk mood improves.

EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades below 1.1500 to start the week. The near-term technical outlook highlights a buildup of bearish momentum. In the second half of the day, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the US and developments surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict could drive the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation and impact the pair’s action.

Markets remain risk-averse and help the USD hold its ground on Monday after the United States (US) got involved in the Israel-Iran conflict by bombing three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.

Meanwhile, mixed PMI data releases from the Euro area seems to be making it difficult for the Euro to stage a rebound. HCOB Composite PMI in Germany improved to 50.4 in June’s flash estimate from 48.5 in May. In the same period, HCOB Composite PMI in the Eurozone remained unchanged at 50.2, missing the market expectation of 50.5.

In the second half of the day, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data for June will be featured in the US economic calendar. The market reaction to these data releases is likely to be straightforward and remain short-lived. Stronger-than-forecast PMI reading are likely to support the USD.

In the European morning, US stock index futures trade marginally higher after opening deep in negative territory. A bullish opening in Wall Street could weigh on the USD and help EUR/USD edge higher. Unless there is a de-escalation of the tensions in the Middle East, however, investors could refrain from taking large positions in risk-sensitive assets.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declined below 40 and EUR/USD fell below the lower limit of the ascending regression channel, reflecting a buildup of bearish momentum.

EUR/USD faces a pivot level at 1.1460-1.1470, where the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the lower limit of the ascending channel align. In case this area is confirmed as resistance, technical sellers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.1420 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the latest uptrend) could be seen as the next support before 1.1360 (200-period SMA).

Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1500 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement), 1.1530 (50-period SMA) and 1.1570 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

Platinum price activated the attempts of gathering the previously achieved gain, by forming a clear correctional decline in Friday, to settle below the extra support at $1275.00 level targeting $1244.00 as appears in the above image.

Reminding you that the stability above $1225.00 level until now might assist renewing the bullish attempts, to target $1300.00 and $1335.00 level, while its decline below this support and providing a negative close will confirm its readiness to resume the correctional decline, to wait for targeting $1210.00 and $1187.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1225.00 and $1300.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated 

Platinum price activated the attempts of gathering the previously achieved gain, by forming a clear correctional decline in Friday, to settle below the extra support at $1275.00 level targeting $1244.00 as appears in the above image.

Reminding you that the stability above $1225.00 level until now might assist renewing the bullish attempts, to target $1300.00 and $1335.00 level, while its decline below this support and providing a negative close will confirm its readiness to resume the correctional decline, to wait for targeting $1210.00 and $1187.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1225.00 and $1300.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated