• The USD/JPY price analysis shows a rebound in the safe-haven yen.

• Data on Tuesday revealed poor business sentiment among Japanese manufacturers.

• The dollar drifted on Tuesday, ahead of the start of new tariffs.

The USD/JPY price analysis shows a rebound in the safe-haven yen as traders increasingly worry about the looming Trump tariffs. However, trading remained thin as the dollar drifted amid uncertainty over the upcoming tariffs. Meanwhile, data from Japan revealed poor business sentiment amid the escalating global trade war.

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The yen has benefitted greatly from the uncertainty that has come with Trump’s tariff campaigns. Its safe-haven nature has allowed it to gain when most other currencies have collapsed. However, Japan is not an island when it comes to trade. The ongoing global trade will have a negative impact on Japan’s export-reliant economy. As a result, recent gains in the yen have been short-lived. Traders are increasingly worried about the economy and what it will mean for BoJ rate hikes. 

Notably, data on Tuesday revealed poor business sentiment among Japanese manufacturers in the three months to March. This was an early sign that the global trade tensions will impact Japan. 

On the other hand, the dollar drifted on Tuesday, ahead of the start of new tariffs. Market participants remain uncertain about which countries will suffer the levies and its impact on their economies. At the same time, fears of stagnation in the US have dampened appetite for the US currency.

USD/JPY key events today

• ISM Manufacturing PMI
• JOLTS Job Openings

USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears gear up for a new low

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is bouncing lower after retesting the 30-SMA resistance and the recently broken channel line. The price has remained below the SMA with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. 

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The price recently broke below its bullish channel support, indicating a surge in bullish momentum. However, before continuing lower, it rebounded to retest the recently broken level. From there, bears must return to make a lower low and confirm a new downtrend. 

If this happens, the price will reach lower support levels, including the 148.25 and 146.75. On the other hand, bulls will take back control if the price fails to make a lower low. In this case, USD/JPY would break above the 30-SMA and the 151.01 resistance to make a new high and continue the bullish trend.

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Created on April 01, 2025

• Currency experts predict that the euro/US dollar exchange rate may reach 1.09 during the key tariff week.
• Currently, the euro continues to attract buying interest during periods of weakness.
• Financial markets are generally tense ahead of the tariff announcements on April 2, but the euro is not showing this and is likely to make further gains in the coming days.
• According to licensed trading platforms, the EUR/USD price is stabilizing around 1.0805, and as expected, it will remain range-bound with its current downward bias until we react to important and influential events.

Caution Dominates Financial Markets

Dear reader, beware of the “sell the rumours and buy the facts” reaction, which could support the US dollar if the US stock market recovers, as investors believe we are reaching the limits of negative US tariff headlines. However, the tariff headlines have not helped the US dollar. Despite these potential reactions, it’s clear that the US dollar will face difficulties in 2025, as Trump’s tariffs and other policy announcements have proven ineffective for the US economy.

If this trend continues, a tough tariff announcement could test the EUR/USD pair and break the 1.09 level in the coming days. Sometimes, simplification is the best approach in times of uncertainty.

Trading Tips:

The EUR/USD will remain bearish until the reaction to the US jobs data releases and the reaction to Trump’s tariffs is over.

US Data vs. Tariffs

This important week, important US economic data may overshadow the tariff headlines. It’s an eventful week in the US, as we get clear indications of how resilient the economy is in light of Elon Musk’s DOGE cuts, policy volatility, and tariffs. Surveys are pointing to a sharp deterioration in sentiment, and we’ll be interested to see if this will impact other data.

If the answer is yes, the possibility of the US dollar declining and the EUR/USD pair rising to 1.09 and above becomes a real possibility. In fact, some analysts believe that the data will be more significant for the US dollar than the tariff news.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

After retreating from its recent highs, the EUR/USD pair found renewed demand last week, confirming strong buying interest during periods of weakness. Simply put, the EUR/USD exchange rate is in an upward trend, and we expect the recent resilience to continue as a result. For this simple reason, the 1.09 level will be present over the next five days. The EUR/USD pair is trading above its nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.0815, while momentum has rebounded, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with the index pointing to a new high of 59. It is also above its 21-day EMA (1.0770), where last week’s heavy selling found strong support.

However, the situation could turn upside next Wednesday when Trump announces his “Liberation Day” tariffs, which are expected to see significant increases on EU imports. Commenting on this, some major investment bank analysts believe the decision could hinder global growth, hurt stock markets, and boost the dollar.

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April 1, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/EUR Forecast Today: Pound Euro Ticks Up as German CPI Declines

The Pound to Euro exchange rate firmed on Monday after Germany released its latest inflation reading.

At the time of writing, the GBP/EUR was trading at around €1.1972, up roughly 0.2% from Monday’s opening levels.

Despite weakening against the Pound (GBP), the Euro (EUR) managed to hold steady and even strengthen against several of its peers on Monday following the release of Germany’s latest CPI data.

The figures showed that the headline inflation rate for March declined in line with market expectations, dropping from 2.3% to 2.2%.

Germany’s harmonised inflation rate, which is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) preferred measure, also fell, coming in at 2.3% – below the market forecast of 2.4% and down from the previous reading of 2.6%.

While the data increased expectations of an ECB interest rate cut, the Euro benefited from the day’s downbeat trading conditions, which bolstered its status as a safe-haven currency and kept it afloat.

At the start of the week, the Pound experienced some volatility, gaining strength against riskier currencies while maintaining a relatively steady position against others, despite a lack of major economic news from the UK.

Sterling’s performance was largely driven by the negative trading environment on Monday.

The Pound’s increasing sensitivity to risk allowed it to advance against its riskier peers, while it remained largely stable against safe-haven currencies.

With limited economic data from the UK, GBP exchange rates were predominantly influenced by broader market sentiment during most of Monday’s European trading session.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, the primary factor influencing the Pound Euro exchange rate will likely be the release of the Eurozone’s inflation data and its latest unemployment figures.

If the Eurozone’s CPI reading cools as expected, it could further pressure the Euro, especially if the data reinforces expectations of an ECB interest rate cut.

Additionally, the Eurozone will release its latest unemployment rate, which could provide some modest support to EUR exchange rates if it remains unchanged as expected.

For the Pound, the only significant data release on Tuesday will be the UK’s final manufacturing PMI data for March.

Should the index confirm a decline in the manufacturing sector for this month, GBP exchange rates could weaken following the release.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

Created on April 01, 2025

• The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
• The market is currently hanging around a range between the 1.30 level above and the 1.2880 level or so below.
• At this point, the market is trying to work off some of the excess froth, and that does make a certain amount of sense considering that we had rallied so hard to get here.

Now we have a lot of questions about tariffs and the recession in the United States if it shows up. And of course, the Bank of England remains very hawkish. So, this does help with the British pound strengthening. The question now is, can we finally break above the 1.30 level on a strong daily close? So far, we have not been able to do so. Therefore, I think we’re somewhat stuck in this range at the moment. Changing this will take a certain amount of momentum to reenter the markets.

On a Break Lower…

If we break down below the 1.2875 level, it’s possible that we could drop from there and go looking at the 1.2750 level where the 50-day EMA currently resides. That being said, I think you still have a market that overall is very bullish, and therefore you’re looking at pullbacks as potential opportunities. While the US dollar is a bit of a mixed bag, the one thing that’s been the case for some time now is that while other currencies were falling against the US dollar, the pound was at least somewhat resilient at times and definitely much stronger than a lot of other currencies. So, if we do see the US dollar get slammed again, it would make sense that the British pound is one of the main victors in that battle.

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NZD/USD price edged higher in latest intraday trading, boosted by positive signals from the Stochastic after reaching oversold levels, amid negative pressure due to trading below the 50-candle SMA, with the dominance of the downward correctional trend as the price trades within a short-term price channel, while trying to recoup some recent losses.

USD/CAD price settled mildly higher in latest intraday trading after taking a breather from the sustained rally yesterday, while collecting profits and venting off overbought saturation in the Stochastic as negative signals start to emerge from it.

It comes as the price breached a downward secondary trend line in the short term, while boosted by ongoing support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.

AUD/USD price rose in latest intraday trading as it tries to recoup some recent losses, while also venting off oversold saturation in the Stochastic, especially as negative signals emerge from it.

It comes as the price is hurt by breaching the main upward trend line in the short term, with ongoing negative pressure due to trading below the 50-candle SMA.

AUD/USD price rose in latest intraday trading as it tries to recoup some recent losses, while also venting off oversold saturation in the Stochastic, especially as negative signals emerge from it.

It comes as the price is hurt by breaching the main upward trend line in the short term, with ongoing negative pressure due to trading below the 50-candle SMA.

The forex market is stuck in a sideways range, but a breakout could be on the horizon.

In today’s video, I’ll show you how I’m trading the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and XAUUSD this week.

Don’t miss it!

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Like most of the forex market, the DXY has been in a sideways range since early March, trading between 103.00 and 105.00.

However, the USD index has yet to test the 103.00 trend line from 2023 or the descending trend line at 105.00.

That tells me we could see recent highs and lows get swept before the next big move.

For now, I’m anticipating more sideways action until the DXY can prove it’s ready for a breakout.

EURUSD Forecast

EURUSD is also stuck in a sideways range between 1.0777 support and the 1.0900 resistance area.

The euro continues to hold below the 1.0900 region on a weekly closing basis, which aligns with a trend line from late 2022.

It’s tough to justify trading EURUSD while it’s range-bound between these two levels, especially without a clear signal.

GBPUSD Forecast

GBPUSD has struggled to gain momentum since March 5th after a sharp three-day rally.

While I think there’s potential for more upside, I wouldn’t want to go long without a proper test of 1.2830.

That level would clear out liquidity below recent lows and give bulls a clear invalidation point.

There’s also a chance we see a sweep of recent highs first to fully retest the 1.3050 resistance.

As always, it’s a waiting game to see which scenario plays out first.

USDJPY Forecast

USDJPY has some of the cleanest levels in the forex market right now.

The pair recently broke below 148.64, but sellers couldn’t keep prices down.

The move back above 148.64 confirmed the sell-side fakeout and put 151.24 back in play.

For now, USDJPY is sideways, just like much of the forex market.

A sustained break above 151.24 would open the door to 154.80, while a break below 148.64 would expose the 146.60 lows again.

XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast

Gold is going parabolic again this week after breaking above the 2024 ascending channel.

Monday’s session confirmed the breakout with a retest of the level as new support.

Right now, XAUUSD bulls are in full control, so buying pullbacks seems like the best play for intraday traders.

However, if this breakout fails and gold drops back below $3,080 on the high time frames, we could see XAUUSD revisit $3,000 or even lower.

That would signal a failed breakout, which often leads to extended moves in the opposite direction.

But as long as $3,080 holds as support, there’s no reason to be bearish on gold.

• The USD/JPY forecast indicates increasing panic over the global economy.

• The yen was on the front foot at the start of the week.

• Data showed that the US core PCE price index increased by a bigger-than-expected 0.4%.  

The USD/JPY forecast indicates increasing panic over the global economy as Trump’s April tariffs loom. As a result, the yen soared on Monday amid safe-haven demand. On the other hand, the dollar collapsed as Treasury yields fell due to increased demand for bonds. 

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The yen was on the front foot to start the week as market participants worried about new Trump tariffs beginning on Wednesday. The US president has promised a 25% auto tariff and reciprocal tariffs on almost all countries that trade with the US. As a result, experts are forecasting an escalation of the global trade war. At the same time, the rising cost of goods might drive inflation higher in most countries. 

Weak global growth will mean an erosion of investors’ money. Therefore, many traders prefer to put their cash in safe-haven assets like the yen, gold, and US debt. The dollar has remained fragile since Friday despite data showing an unexpected surge in underlying inflation. 

Notably, the core PCE price index increased by 0.4%. Meanwhile, economists had expected an increase of 0.3%. The inflation report will keep the Fed cautious. This week, traders will watch the US monthly employment figures.

USD/JPY key events today

Market participants do not expect any key economic reports today. Therefore, all focus will remain on the looming Trump tariffs.

USD/JPY technical forecast: Sentiment shifts with channel breakout

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken out of its bullish channel, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. Currently, the price trades well below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is nearing the oversold region. Therefore, the bearish bias is strong. 

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Initially, the price made higher highs and lows within a bullish channel. However, the rally paused when bulls met the 151.01 resistance level. The price made a double top at this level, plus a bearish RSI divergence, signalling a looming reversal. Soon after, a surge in bearish momentum saw the price break below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI dipped into bearish territory below 50. 

Given the solid bearish momentum, the price will soon retest the 148.25 support level If the downtrend continues, USD/JPY will likely reach the 146.75 support level.

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