Euro PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Created on November 28, 2024

• Since the beginning of this week, the USD/JPY currency pair has been on a downward correction path, with losses extending to the support level of 150.45, the lowest for the currency pair in five weeks.
• Currently, it is stabilizing around the 151.60 level at the time of writing, amidst the US Thanksgiving holiday.
• The technical downward correction of the USD/JPY currency pair was natural after its recent sharp gains, which reached the resistance level of 156.75, driven by the euphoria of Trump’s trade, which supported the strength of the US dollar against other major currencies.

Why Has the Japanese Yen Appreciated Recently?

The Japanese Yen price found strong momentum to achieve gains amid expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again early next month. In this regard, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently indicated the possibility of raising interest rates in December, citing concerns about the weakness of the Japanese Yen. Financial markets are now pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a 25-basis point rate hike in Japan next month, up from around 50% just a week ago. The Japanese yen will react to Friday’s release of inflation data in Tokyo, which could provide additional insights into the future direction of the Bank of Japan’s policy.

Japanese Bond Yields Decline

According to recent trading, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond fell to around 1.06% on Thursday, hitting a two-week low, tracking a decline in US Treasury yields as US inflation data came in in line with expectations, suggesting no major change in the path of US rate cuts. In Japan, investors are closely watching the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance, with speculation growing that the central bank could raise interest rates again at its meeting next month. Financial markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a 25bp rate hike next month, up from around 50% just a week ago.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

The bearish momentum of USD/JPY has added to the overall decline in the US dollar as US PCE inflation data came in line with expectations, suggesting a slight change in the Fed’s approach to cutting US interest rates. Technically, and based on the performance on the daily chart, the 150.00 support level will remain a dividing line for USD/JPY in the coming days. Stability below the level will encourage bears to move towards stronger support levels, the closest of which are 148.80 and 147.00 respectively. On the other hand, in the same time frame, if USD/JPY returns above the 153.60 resistance, it will be important for bulls to control the pair.

USD/JPY Signals Today:

We recommend buying the US dollar/Japanese yen from every downward level. Always be careful not to take risks and activate profit limit and stop loss orders to ensure the safety of your trading account from any price reversals that may come suddenly.

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Created on November 29, 2024

• The euro initially fell a bit against the US dollar during the trading session on Thursday as Thanksgiving would have caused a little bit of liquidity problems in the market.
• That being said though, we have been more or less going sideways for a while and the 1.06 level above is a major resistance barrier.
• If we can break above the 1.06 level and go looking to the 1.0750 level. I think that’s what is trying to happen.

But ultimately, this is a pair that I still think would favor the US dollar longer term. The fact is that the United States is about to enter a renaissance in the business world, at least as far as the way the government approaches it. And one would think that there will be a lot of investment in America.

Geopolitics Still Matter

At the same time, we have the land war in Ukraine, and it is getting hotter. So, I think the upside in the euro is a little somewhat limited in that sense as well. The EUR/USD market looks very much like one that is just bouncing from an oversold condition, which makes quite a bit of sense. The US dollar has swallowed everything over the last several months.

With this being said, I expect short-term traders to be buyers of euros and longer-term traders to look for some type of opportunity to pick up cheap dollars. It is a bit of a two-speed market. It just depends on what timeframe you’re looking at. But like I said, based on the action that we’ve seen over the last couple of days, we are doing everything we can to break above 1.06 and I am seeing similar action in other currency pairs, such as the British Pound. After all, it’s quite common for these pairs to move based on the US dollar itself, as in general, if you can get the trajectory of the US dollar correct, you can generally do okay when it comes to most forex pairs.

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Created on November 29, 2024

• The first thing that I see is that the market has pulled back just a bit to show signs of weakness, only to turn around and show signs of life.
• The 1.27 level has been a massive barrier over the last couple of weeks that I think will capture a lot of attention.
• At this point, it looks like we are doing everything we can to break out above there, but we haven’t done so yet, and it is probably worth noting that the Thursday session was Thanksgiving, so there was only so much in the way of liquidity once New York opened.

On the other side, if we were to drop from here, I think there is a massive amount of support down near the 1.25 level. Ultimately, we are leaning toward the upside, and I do think that we are starting to see the US dollar give up some of its strength against certain currencies that are a little better suited to prevail at this point. The British pound has been very stubborn against the greenback in relation to other currencies, so it’s possible that we could see the British pound lead the way to any type of sell off when it comes to the greenback.

Going Forward

I think this comes down to whether or not the US dollar starts to strengthen. If it does, then that will more likely than not kill the idea of a breakout. We will probably drop from here to go down to the 1.25 level. Anything below the 1.25 level would be extreme US dollar strength, and you would probably just see the US dollar swallow almost everything, and at that point in time it’s possible that we could see the best traits being shorting other currency such as the euro or the Australian dollar. While the British pound would drop in that scenario, may not drop as quickly.

On the other hand, if the US dollar starts to weaken everywhere else, it’s likely that we would see the British pound lead the way and it could move much quicker than others. At that point in time, I think we will probably go looking to the 1.2850 level rather quickly. Keep in mind the 200 Day EMA is in that same vicinity.

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Created on November 28, 2024

• Yesterday’s session was the most notable in the GBP/USD currency pair’s attempts to rebound upwards, as it moved towards the resistance level of 1.2693 from the support level of 1.2565 in the same trading session.
• Currently, it is stabilizing around the 1.2660 level at the time of writing.
• Yesterday’s gains were primarily due to pressure on the US dollar’s performance, as it received a package of important US economic releases.
• Also, as investors reduced their exposure to the market ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday today, Thursday.

US Dollar Affected by Economic Data Results

The US dollar came under selling pressure after economic calendar data indicated that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure would not be enough to prevent another cut in US interest rates in December. According to the announcement, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.27% in October, the largest monthly increase since March. However, the figure was slightly below expectations, which had pointed to 0.3%. Following the data results, financial markets are now betting on a 66% chance of a US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the last meeting of 2024. According to Fed funds futures, up from a 63% chance on Tuesday.

These events coincide with the decline in the US dollar price ahead of today’s US holiday. According to the data results, the 12-month PCE price index rose to 2.8% from 2.7% in October (and 3.4% a year ago), indicating a recent rise in inflationary pressures and should be enough to ensure the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on cutting US interest rates in the coming months. This will naturally limit the weakness of the US dollar. However, in the near term, the US dollar is retreating slightly.

Analysts’ views on the performance of the US dollar

Analysts at HSBC believe that “the decline in the US dollar is also likely to reflect some unwinding of pre-US Thanksgiving holiday positioning.” Also, investment bank analysts see the possibility of US dollar selling as month-end flows begin to dominate the action. These are flows created by portfolio managers who buy and sell currencies to rebalance their portfolios to account for the previous month’s forex market movements. In the same context, Deutsche Bank’s end-of-month model sees the possibility of US dollar weakness, noting that the moves that occurred after the elections in US assets have generated some large rebalancing signals on relative performance. Meanwhile, with demand for the EUR/USD pair and supply of the USD/SEK and USD/CHF pairs as the largest signals within their model.

Generally, the weakness of the US dollar was also expected from a technical perspective, as many analysts noted that the November rally seemed overextended and deserved a downward correction.

Overall, most analysts see USD strength as a feature of 2025. However, the pace of gains makes it look overvalued over shorter time frames, opening the door to a December setback.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to the performance on the daily chart above, the GBP/USD price is still at the beginning of forming an upward launch base, which means that the currency pair still lacks the strong momentum to start moving upward. Dear reader, you should take into account that the direction of the technical indicators has not turned upward yet. To start doing so, bulls should launch the GBP/USD currency pair towards the resistance levels of 1.2775 and then the psychological resistance of 1.3000 first. Otherwise, the general trend will remain bearish.

You should be cautious today as there is a holiday in the US markets, which may weaken liquidity amid traders staying away from trading screens. 

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Created on November 28, 2024

• The US dollar has gotten hammered over the last couple of days against the Japanese yen, and has struggled against most currencies around the world.
• Part of this could be cooling interest rates, part of it could be just a simple profit taking move as we head into Thanksgiving in the United States, which obviously has a major influence on demand for the dollar over the next day or two. Or it could just simply be more volatility.

At this point, when I look at the dollar against the Japanese yen, the first thing I see is that the 150 yen level underneath is backed up by the 200 day EMA. So, I think we’re getting close to an area where value hunting will begin. I would need to see a drop and then a bounce from here, perhaps something like a hammer to start to think about buying again.

Interest Rate Differential Still Favors America

The interest rate differential does favor the US dollar and in the longer term, that should come into the picture and start moving the market. If we were to break down below the 148 yen level, that could change everything. But until then, I think we still have a situation where the US dollar probably continues to outperform the Japanese yen over the longer term.

That being said, it really was only about two months ago that we were at 140 yen. So, it’s not a big surprise to see this little bit of a pullback. I don’t know that it makes any difference for the trend. I think it’s a little early to call that, but when you look at a Fibonacci retracement from the entire move, the 150 yen level ties together with the 38.2% Fib. So, it’s possible that might be where people get interested again. This would be a great value, assuming that the overall trend will continue over the longer term.

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Created on November 28, 2024

• The Euro has rallied a bit during the early hours on Wednesday as we have seen the United States dollar give back some of its gains.
• The US dollar was a little overbought.
• So, it’s not a huge surprise to see that things are starting to shift in another direction.

That being said, I think you’ve got a scenario where the 1.05 level continues to be major support. The fact that the stochastic oscillator crossed in the oversold condition a few days ago probably has this EUR/USD market ready for a technical bounce. Whether or not this sticks is a completely different question, but keep in mind that the 1.06 level above is going to be a bit of a barrier. I’ll be watching that because if we can break above the 1.06 level, then we have further gains ahead.

Short Term Pullbacks

Short term pullbacks probably end up showing signs of support near the 1.05 level again. And anything below there I think probably has some issues. Fundamentally speaking, the United States came out with the PCE numbers on Wednesday exactly as expected, right along with preliminary GDP and weekly unemployment claims came within about 2000 jobs from expected numbers. So, with all of that being said, I think the market is probably seeing some short covering due to the Thanksgiving holiday as a lot of the major traders in New York at least won’t be at their desk tomorrow for Thanksgiving. And then again on Friday, because most Americans take both days off if they can.

What will be interesting is to see how this pair behaves next week. I think anything above 1.0750 could change the trend again, but right now, this looks like a market where you will probably be fading signs of exhaustion after rallies. At this point, although the euro looks like it wants to rally, the reality is that the upside is probably still somewhat limited.

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Created on November 28, 2024

• The British pound has rallied rather significantly during the day, gaining 0.9% by midday in North America.
• It’ll be interesting to see what happens next because the 1.27 level above is what I consider to be a significant barrier.
• If we can break above the 1.27 level, it’s very possible that this pair goes another 200 pips to the upside.

On the other hand, if we fail here, then I think we just say that we are in a basing pattern. The US dollar has given up quite a bit of its gains over the last couple of days against multiple currencies, but I think part of this is just simply profit taking. After all, it was just about six weeks ago that we were all the way up at 1.3450 and dropped drastically, roughly a thousand pips.

What I’m seeing with the US dollar is around the world. It’s not just in the British pound, but it’s also worth noting that the British pound for the longest time had fared better than many other currencies against the green bag.

Levels That Matter

The rubber meets the road here at the 1.27 level, so I will be watching it. And if we can get above there, then that 1.29 level comes into focus. But we also have the 200 day EMA and the 50 day EMA in that range offering a bit of resistance. If the market were to turn around and fall below the 1.25 level, then the 1.23 level gets targeted. But right now, that doesn’t look very likely. What will be interesting to see is how this GBP/USD market behaves on Thursday, as it is Thanksgiving in the United States.

That might be part of what we are seeing here is that New York traders are covering shorts so that they don’t get caught away from their desk with a big loser. So only time will tell on that, but I am watching these levels. There are some very clear levels in cable that will come to fruition here and influence where we go next. 

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• EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum and closed above 1.0550 on Wednesday.
• The pair retreats slightly in the European morning on Thursday.
• Investors await Consumer Price Index data from Germany.

EUR/USD capitalized on the selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) and registered strong gains on Wednesday. Before reaching 1.0600, however, the pair went into a consolidation phase and was last seen trading near 1.0550.

The USD weakened against its rivals midweek following mixed macroeconomic data releases. Moreover, position adjustments heading into the Thanksgiving Day holiday may have played a part in the currency’s underperformance. 

Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis in October, falling short of the market expectation for an increase of 0.5%. On a positive note, weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 213,000 from 215,000 in the previous week. Finally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, rose 2.3% on a yearly basis, matching the market consensus, while the annual core PCE inflation edged higher to 2.8% from 2.7%.

Later in the session, regional and nation-wide inflation data from Germany will be watched closely by investors. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Germany is forecast to decline 0.2% in November. A positive reading could help the Euro gather strength with the immediate reaction.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said that they could gradually move toward a neutral rate, given the inflation outlook, but warned against moving too far into accommodative territory.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD broke out of its descending regression channel by rising above 1.0520 on Wednesday and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed above 50, reflecting a bullish tilt in the short-term outlook. In case 1.0520 continues to hold as support, technical buyers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.0580 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, could be seen as first resistance before 1.0610 (static level) and 1.0660 (static level).

If EUR/USD returns below 1.0520, it could face interim support at 1.0500 (round level, 20-period SMA) ahead of 1.0440 (static level) and 1.0400 (round level).