Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.

April 15, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Strikes Six-Month Best on UK-US Trade Deal Hopes

GBP/USD climbed to a six-month best buy exchange rate on Tuesday, buoyed by a risk-positive market mood and rising speculation over a potential UK-US trade agreement.

The Pound exchange rates enjoyed support on Tuesday as investors embraced riskier assets, pushing the increasingly risk-sensitive UK currency higher against its safe-haven counterparts.

This rally came despite a mixed UK labour market report. While wage growth remained relatively robust in the three months to February, the figure undershot forecasts, prompting some traders to raise their expectations for a potential Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut in May.

Adding to Sterling’s strength were fresh signs of progress towards a UK-US trade deal. Comments from US Vice-President JD Vance suggested the UK could secure more favourable terms than its European peers, stating:

‘I think there’s a good chance that, yes, we’ll come to a great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries.’

The remarks helped lift sentiment toward the Pound throughout the session.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) came under pressure on Tuesday as investors shifted away from the safe-haven currency in favour of riskier assets.

Sentiment was boosted after the US confirmed that electronics would be excluded from the newly announced 145% tariffs on imports from China.

Additionally, Donald Trump signalled that potential tariffs on imported cars and car parts could be delayed, giving automakers more time to establish production facilities on American soil.

This combination of easing trade tensions and upbeat risk appetite left the US Dollar struggling for support.

Looking ahead, the UK’s latest consumer price index, due Wednesday morning, could shape the direction of GBP/USD.

Analysts are forecasting a modest slowdown in inflation, which may reinforce expectations of a BoE rate cut and apply downward pressure on the Pound.

Later in the day, US retail sales data for March is expected to show strong growth – a result that could help the US Dollar recover some ground.

Traders will also be keeping an eye on developments around US trade policy and potential UK-US trade talks. While recession concerns in the US could continue to drag on the Dollar, any renewed optimism about a trade pact could offer the Pound fresh support.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday and then again, here early on Tuesday. This is a market that’s trying to find its bottom. And it is probably worth noting that the yen is starting to sell off a bit against other currencies. So, this might be more of a yen story at the moment. But nonetheless, if we can clear the 145 yen level to the upside, it’s likely that we will see a bit of follow through. The 140 yen level underneath is probably your next major support level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied again in early trading on Tuesday, but quite frankly, this currency pair is the poster child of an overbought currency situation. After all, this assumes that China is just suddenly going to have smooth things over with the United States and vice versa because the Australian dollar, of course, is highly sensitive to the Chinese situation.

Furthermore, we have the 200 day EMA sitting just above the 0.64 level, an area that’s been resistance multiple times. And we got here pretty quickly. So, we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out. Signs of exhaustion could very well lead to selling towards the 0.62 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• EUR/USD fluctuates in a narrow band below 1.1400 on Tuesday.
• The bullish bias remains intact in the short-term technical outlook.
• Investors could refrain from taking large positions ahead of the ECB’s policy announcements.

EUR/USD moves up and down in a narrow channel at around 1.1350 after posting small gains on Monday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact but investors could remain on the sidelines, waiting for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements due Thursday.

The improving risk mood helped EUR/USD hold its ground at the beginning of the week. On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) found its footing following the previous week’s steep decline and limited the pair’s upside amid easing fears over a deepening global trade conflict.

In an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States (US) National Economic Council (NEC), said that they are making “enormous progress” on tariff talks with the European Union.

The US economic calendar will feature the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey, alongside the Imports Price Index and Export Price Index data for March. A significant decline in the Empire State Manufacturing Index could revive concerns over an economic downturn in the US and caused the USD to come under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction.

Meanwhile, the data from the Eurozone showed that Industrial Production expanded by 1.1% on a monthly basis in February, surpassing the market expectation for an increase of 0.2%. On a negative note, ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment slumped to -18.5 in April from 39.8 in March.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60 on Tuesday, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact in the near term. Additionally, EUR/USD holds comfortably above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).

On the upside, 1.1400 (psychological level, static level) aligns as first resistance before 1.1470 (static level) and 1.1500 (round level). Looking south, first support could be spotted at 1.1340 (static level) ahead of 1.1300 (static level, round level) and 1.1250 (static level).

(This story was corrected on April 15 at 09:41 GMT to say that ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment slumped to -18.5 in April, not February.)

Platinum price formed a new bullish rally achieving $958.00 level, then rebound directly to settle near the barrier at $950.00 level, affected by the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators.

The price might be forced to form mixed sideways trading, but the main stability above the support level at $920.00 represents a main factor that motivates the bullish trading, reminding you that the main targets settled near $966,00, and surpassing it will confirm regaining the main bullish bias, by its stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image.

The expected trading range for today is between $940,00 and $966.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price formed a new bullish rally achieving $958.00 level, then rebound directly to settle near the barrier at $950.00 level, affected by the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators.

The price might be forced to form mixed sideways trading, but the main stability above the support level at $920.00 represents a main factor that motivates the bullish trading, reminding you that the main targets settled near $966,00, and surpassing it will confirm regaining the main bullish bias, by its stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image.

The expected trading range for today is between $940,00 and $966.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on April 15, 2025

• The euro initially spiked during the trading session on Monday, but it looks like the 0.8650 level will continue to be major resistance, as it has been multiple times in the past.
• Ultimately, this is a pair that tends to be very noisy, and the recent shot straight up in the air is very unusual.
• With that being said, the market is likely to continue to look at this as a potential shorting opportunity, as we continue to see a lot of wicks to the upside, and we just can’t seem to hang on to the gains.

Technical Analysis

Analysis for this pair is obviously very bullish from the last couple of weeks, but when you look out at the longer-term charts, it makes a lot of sense that we could failure, because it’s an area that’s been important multiple times. In fact, I can see reactions to this level multiple times over the last several years, and that does suggest that perhaps a bit of a pullback is coming. If we do in fact fall from here, then I would anticipate buyers to come back into the picture near the 0.8520 level.

On the other hand, if we turn around and rally at this point, breaking above the 0.8750 level could very well turn this market into a runaway market on the upside. I find that a little bit difficult to swallow, but I suppose it’s possible. If that were to happen, then I think you would see the British pound suffer against most currencies, and the Euro just simply runaway against currencies at the same time. All things being equal though, the euro is overbought, and I think a pullback makes more sense than not.

All things being equal, this is a market that doesn’t typically move this quickly, and I think that in and of itself could have ramifications as to where we are going. Ultimately, this is a shorting opportunity that has a low risk to reward, mainly due to the fact that it would take so little to stop you out if you put your stop loss just above the 0.8650 area, perhaps by 20 pips or so. The downside could be the 0.8520 level rather quickly, maybe even the 0.85 level without changing the trend at all.

Ready to trade our daily forecast and analysis? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers UK to check out

Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.

Created on April 14, 2025

• The weakness of the US dollar against other major currencies last week increased the bearish momentum for the USD/JPY currency pair.
• It pushed it down with losses extending to the support level of 142.05, the lowest for the pair in six months, before closing the week’s trading around the 143.43 level in desperate attempts for an upward reversal.
• The currency pair will be affected in the coming days by the future policies of central banks, especially the Bank of Japan, and the pace of investor risk appetite or aversion.

Yen Exchange Rate and Impact on Japanese Policies

In this regard, the Chairman of the Policy Committee of the Japanese ruling party said before the start of trading this week that Japan should strengthen the yen, including by helping to enhance the country’s industrial competitiveness, as the currency’s weakness has led to higher household living costs. Itsunori Onodera, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party’s Policy Research Council, emphasized that Japan should not deliberately sell its holdings of US Treasury bonds in retaliation for the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

He added, “As an ally of the United States, the government should not consider deliberately using its holdings of US Treasury bonds,” rejecting an opposition deputy’s suggestion that Tokyo use its massive holdings of US government debt as a negotiating tool in bilateral trade talks.

Trading Tips:

I still prefer buying USD/JPY from every downward level.

US Stock Markets Attempt to Recover

By the end of last week’s trading and across stock trading company platforms, Wall Street stocks rose, ending a volatile week amid trade hopes. Investor sentiment had risen thanks to hopes for a potential trade agreement between the United States and China. According to performance, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.8%, the Nasdaq by 2%, and the Dow Jones by 618 points. Optimism increased after the White House stated that President Trump is “optimistic” that China will seek an agreement, even as trade tensions escalated with Trump raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, and China responding by imposing 125% tariffs on US imports.

On the economic front, according to the economic calendar data results, a University of Michigan survey showed US consumer confidence falling to its lowest levels since 2022, with inflation expectations reaching a peak not seen since 1981. Meanwhile, the earnings season kicked off with mixed results for banks – Wells Fargo shares fell by 1%, while Morgan Stanley shares rose by 1.4%, and JPMorgan shares rose by 4% after reporting record revenues.

Overall, during last week’s trading, the S&P 500 jumped 5.7%, the Nasdaq climbed 7.3%, and the Dow Jones rose nearly 5%, recording its best weekly performance in more than a year, driven by a historic high in mid-week trading.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

By observing the performance on the daily timeframe chart, the overall trend for USD/JPY is strongly bearish, and it appears closest to its peak if bears succeed in moving towards the psychological support level of 140.00. From there and from lower levels, buying USD/JPY is preferred. The support level of 141.60 is currently the most important for anticipating a move towards the psychological support. This level is also sufficient to push technical indicators towards strong oversold levels, as clearly shown by the performance of the Stochastic oscillator, the 14-day RSI, and the MACD. Conversely, on the same timeframe, the first break of the bearish trend will be an initial move towards the resistance level of 147.80, which leads us to the psychological resistance of 150.00.

The USD/JPY pair is not awaiting any significant economic data releases, so investor sentiment regarding risk appetite will be a key factor in determining the pair’s direction.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

The GBPJPY pair provided more negative attempts on Friday’s trading, but the contradiction between the main indicators pushed it to delay the negative attack, by its rebound above 186.50 level that represents a new obstacle against the negative attempts, which pushes it to form a sideways fluctuation by its stability near 187.50.

Reminding you that the bearish scenario remain valid, depending on the stability of the resistance at 189.75, besides 38.2% Fibonacci correction level’s attempt to settle at 188.00 as an extra barrier, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering the negative momentum again, to ease the mission of renewing the pressure on 186.50, as breaking it will open the way towards reaching the extra negative stations, which might begin at 186.60 and 184.40.

The expected trading range for today is between 186.50 and 188.40

Trend forecast: Bearish