March 12, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Subdued as US Inflation Cools

The British Pound Sterling (GBP) remained largely static versus the U.S. Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as fresh US inflation figures failed to generate significant movement in the pairing.

At the time of writing, the Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD)was trading at $1.2934, showing minimal change from the morning’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) saw limited movement on Wednesday as fears of an economic slowdown continued to weigh on the currency.

USD remained pressured as concerns over US tariffs and potential retaliatory measures from other nations fuelled recession worries.

With tariffs on steel and aluminium imports coming into force, the European Union announced countermeasures set to take effect from 1 April.

In the afternoon, the latest US consumer price index revealed that inflation eased from 3% to 2.8% in February.

While this reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates more aggressively, the report did little to shift market sentiment.

Despite inflationary pressures cooling, fears of an economic downturn kept the ‘Greenback’ subdued. However, safe-haven demand limited any significant losses.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as a lack of UK economic data left the currency without clear direction.

As an increasingly risk-sensitive currency, Sterling faced mixed influences.

Market caution over escalating trade tensions limited GBP gains.

However, a temporary ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia helped to improve overall sentiment, preventing Sterling from sliding lower.

Looking ahead, the GBP/USD exchange rate may experience volatility if the White House announces further tariff measures.

Should Donald Trump escalate trade tensions in response to EU countermeasures, market jitters could weigh on USD.

However, increased safe-haven demand could provide some support for the currency.

On the data front, USD traders will be eyeing the latest producer price index (PPI) release for further clues on inflation trends.

A softer PPI reading could reinforce expectations of Fed rate cuts, potentially weakening the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, UK economic data remains limited until Friday’s GDP release. With expectations of a slowdown in January, Sterling could face headwinds at the end of the week if growth figures disappoint.

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• The USD/JPY forecast shows a pullback in the yen.

• Trump’s tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect on Wednesday.

• Traders are looking forward to the US CPI report.

The USD/JPY forecast shows a pullback in the yen as the focus shifts to the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Japan’s export-reliant economy. At the same time, fears of the US recession kept the dollar under pressure. However, the greenback rebounded ahead of the US CPI report to gauge the outlook for Fed rate cuts.

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The yen pulled back from recent highs as Trump maintained his aggressive stance on tariffs. On Wednesday, his tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect, igniting a trade war with the Eurozone. This has also shone a light on the looming reciprocal tariff. 

Trump’s tariffs will significantly impact the global economy. This includes Japan’s export-reliant economy. As a result, demand for the yen eased on Wednesday. Investors are seeking safety in other assets like gold. 

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan remains hawkish on policy. Companies in Japan agreed to more wage hikes on Wednesday, setting in place the right conditions for rate hikes. As a result, market participants expect more rate hikes this year. However, the next move might come in May. 

Meanwhile, traders are looking forward to the US CPI report. Economists expect inflation to increase by 0.3%, lower than the previous reading of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the annual figure might ease to 2.9%.

USD/JPY key events today

• US Core CPI m/m
• US CPI m/m
• US CPI y/y

USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls approach the 149.00 resistance

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 30-SMA, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, indicating stronger bullish momentum. This shift came after the RSI made a bullish divergence. While the price made a lower low, the RSI made a higher one, showing weaker momentum. This allowed bulls to return to the market. 

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However, the price has to break above the 149.00 resistance level to confirm a new bullish trend. Moreover, it must start making higher highs and lows. On the other hand, if the 149.00 resistance holds firm, USD/JPY will return to retest the 147.00 support. A break below this level will make a lower low, confirming a continuation of the previous downtrend.

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The EURJPY pair formed strong bullish rally yesterday, confirming its surrender to the domination of the bullish bias, to notice its fluctuation near the second target at 161.65, taking advantage of its stability above the MA55.

We expect to form additional support at 160.10, beside stochastic additional positive momentum, to continue forming the bullish waves and attempt to press on 162.40 resistance line, followed by monitoring its behavior due to the importance of this level to detect the next trend.

The expected trading range for today is between 160.80 and 162.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on March 12, 2025

• The euro has initially pulled back just a bit against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, only to skyrocket toward the 200-day EMA.
• This is a pair that I think, given enough time, will probably try to break above the ¥162 level.
• If it does, that opens up the possibility of moving all the way to the ¥165 level.
• This is an area that I think would be somewhat resistant to further pressure to the upside, as it has been important multiple times in the past.

Short-term pullbacks, I think, continue to find buyers because of the interest rate differential and the fact that interest rates in Europe are rising via the bond market. That has a major influence on what happens with the euro itself. The Japanese yen, by contrast, has the Bank of Japan and its ultra-loose monetary policy, despite the fact that it’s probably going to raise interest rates one more time.

It’s also worth noting that the market has been banging around between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators, so there are a certain number of questions about whether or not we’re going to break out of this area. If we do break out, typically, that means you’re going to get some momentum. As things stand right now and also taking into account the size and strength of the candlesticks for the trading session on Tuesday, I do favor the upside.

Swap Matters in JPY Pairs Over Time

I don’t like paying for a swap at the end of the day anyway, and generally, over the long term, that’s a loser. Short-term traders may continue to kick this thing back around these moving averages, but ultimately, I think you have a scenario where short-term dips probably bring in more buyers. I don’t have any interest in shorting. I don’t want to own the Japanese yen at this point.

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• EUR/USD trades in a relatively tight channel at around 1.0900 on Wednesday.
• The US’ 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports went into effect, triggering a response from the EU.
• The US economic calendar will feature Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February.

EUR/USD seems to have entered a consolidation phase near 1.0900 after rising to its strongest level since mid-October near 1.0950. The pair’s technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact but investors could refrain from committing to another leg higher in the near term.

The White House announced that 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum products from Canada and all other countries went into effect, with no exceptions or exemptions. In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday that the European Union (EU) has launched “swift and proportionate” countermeasures worth 26 billion Euros.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that trade fragmentation could lead to “larger, more disruptive relative price changes.”

In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February. 

On a monthly basis, the core CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% following the 0.4% increase recorded in January. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently see virtually no chance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting its policy rate after next week’s meeting. A soft monthly core CPI print, however, could feed into expectations of a rate reduction in May and weigh on the US Dollar (USD) with the immediate reaction. On the flip side, a stronger-than-forecast reading could support the USD. Nevertheless, a hot inflation report is likely to revive concerns over an economic downturn in the US and make it difficult for the USD to stage a decisive rebound.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD remains within the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays near 70, reflecting the bullish stance. On the upside, 1.0940 (static level) aligns as interim resistance before 1.1000 (static level, round level, mid-point of the ascending channel).

In case EUR/USD drops below 1.0870 (lower limit of the ascending channel) and starts using this level as resistance, technical buyers could be discouraged. In this scenario, 1.0800 (static level, round level) could be seen as next support before 1.0730, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average is located.

The GBPJPY pair took advantage of the stability of 188.50 support line to activate the bullish track and start achieving many gains by rallying towards 191.70, to approach the target mentioned in our previous report.

We notice stochastic attempt to provide the additional positive momentum to increase the efficiency of the bullish track, to expect attacking 192.10 obstacle, while surpassing it might extend trades towards 50% Fibonacci correction level at 193.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.80 and 193.25

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair formed strong bullish rally yesterday, confirming its surrender to the domination of the bullish bias, to notice its fluctuation near the second target at 161.65, taking advantage of its stability above the MA55.

We expect to form additional support at 160.10, beside stochastic additional positive momentum, to continue forming the bullish waves and attempt to press on 162.40 resistance line, followed by monitoring its behavior due to the importance of this level to detect the next trend.

The expected trading range for today is between 160.80 and 162.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair formed strong bullish rally yesterday, confirming its surrender to the domination of the bullish bias, to notice its fluctuation near the second target at 161.65, taking advantage of its stability above the MA55.

We expect to form additional support at 160.10, beside stochastic additional positive momentum, to continue forming the bullish waves and attempt to press on 162.40 resistance line, followed by monitoring its behavior due to the importance of this level to detect the next trend.

The expected trading range for today is between 160.80 and 162.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

Binance Coin’s currency price (BNBUSD) rose in the intraday after the current support of $534.7 held on, with the price trying to recoup some recent losses, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the short term, with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, coupled with negative signals from the RSI.

Therefore we expect the price to return lower, provided the aforementioned support of $534.7 was breached, thus targeting the pivotal support of $471.5. 

Trend forecast for today: Likely Bearish 

• Tweezers bottom’ pattern formed at 146.54 signals potential short-term trend reversal.
• RSI flattens, suggesting bearish momentum is losing steam.
• Key upside resistance seen at 148.00; clearance opens the door toward Senkou Span A at 149.79.

The USD/JPY rises as trade tensions loom due to back-and-forth tariff rhetoric between Canada and the United States (US), which initially weighed on the US Dollar. Nevertheless, as both countries agreed to lift tariffs, the pair advanced and traded at 147.77, up 0.34%.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

USD/JPY formed a ‘tweezers bottom’ two candle chart pattern near the year-to-date (YTD) low of 146.54, hinting that the downtrend seems overextended after dropping from around 158.00 toward the current exchange rates. Despite being bearish, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flat, indicating that selling pressure is fading.

For a bearish continuation, USD/JPY needs to clear the YTD low of 146.54. If surpassed the next stop would be the September 30 swing low of 141.64, followed by the September 16 low of 139.58.

Conversely, if USD/JPY climbs above 148.00 a rally towards testing the Senkou Span A at 149.79 is on the cards.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily