Copper price reached $5.9700 level yesterday to settle below it, affected by the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators, especially by stochastic exit from the overbought level, which forces it to fluctuate in sideways range by its stability near $5.8300.

We expect the price to be affected by a state of instability due to the ongoing divergence of the main indicators, despite the presence of an opportunity to edge toward $5,720.00. However, exposure to negative pressure may force it to retest the solid support near $5,510.00, while surpassing this level and holding above it will reinforce the chances of recording new gains that might extend towards $6.1200 and $6.2400.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.7500 and $6.000

Trend forecast: Fluctuating

Copper price reached $5.9700 level yesterday to settle below it, affected by the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators, especially by stochastic exit from the overbought level, which forces it to fluctuate in sideways range by its stability near $5.8300.

We expect the price to be affected by a state of instability due to the ongoing divergence of the main indicators, despite the presence of an opportunity to edge toward $5,720.00. However, exposure to negative pressure may force it to retest the solid support near $5,510.00, while surpassing this level and holding above it will reinforce the chances of recording new gains that might extend towards $6.1200 and $6.2400.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.7500 and $6.000

Trend forecast: Fluctuating

Created on January 26, 2026

The Euro has been extraordinarily negative against the British pound on Friday, as the economic figures in the United Kingdom continue to impress, suggesting a hesitant Bank of England.

EUR/GBP

The Euro has been extraordinarily negative against the British pound during the trading session on Friday, knocking back some of the previous Euro strength as the retail sales in the United Kingdom came out much hotter than anticipated, along with the manufacturing PMI forward-looking numbers. So, it does look like inflation is going to stick around a bit in the United Kingdom, and that keeps the Bank of England perhaps thinking about keeping rates higher for longer.

It is a very similar situation to what we see at the Federal Reserve at the moment, although the Federal Reserve has become a little bit more cautious as of late. But for three years now, I have been hearing about the Fed getting ready to cut drastically, and it is yet to happen. Maybe the United Kingdom is in the same position. The European Central Bank, of course, is where it needs to be, and it is going to stay flat. So, I think that is part of what is driving this.

Major Resistance Barrier

But when you look at the longer-term chart, we had just pulled back from a major resistance barrier going back multiple years. So now, the next thing I am watching is the 200-day EMA, currently sitting at the 0.8652 level. If we break down below there, then 0.86 is your next target, followed by 0.8450.

I do think it eventually does break down. It makes a lot of sense to me. That doesn’t mean that it is easy, and it doesn’t mean that it happens quickly. But quite frankly, I don’t see why it won’t. The central bank divergence and economic numbers alone should make that a real thing.

Ready to trade our daily forecast and analysis? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers UK to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Near Six-Month Best Exchange Rate

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) opened the new week on strong footing, pushing to a fresh six-month high as broad-based selling pressure continued to undermine the US Dollar.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading close to $1.3671, representing a gain of around 0.3% compared with Monday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) remained on the back foot at the start of the week, extending a sell-off that dragged the currency to multi-month lows in the previous session.

Fresh pressure on the Greenback followed renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, who warned of imposing 100% tariffs on Canada should it strike a trade agreement with China. Trump argued such a deal would effectively turn Canada into a gateway for Chinese goods entering the US market.

These remarks have heightened investor unease around US trade and foreign policy, with markets increasingly unsettled by the unpredictability of the Trump administration.

Adding to the negative tone for the Dollar were renewed concerns over a potential US government shutdown, after Senate Democrats pledged to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security following the death of another US citizen at the hands of federal agents over the weekend.

Despite its strength against the US Dollar, the Pound (GBP) struggled to generate notable gains against other major currencies.

Sterling traded in a relatively narrow range amid a quiet UK economic calendar, following a week packed with high-profile data releases.

Investor caution was also fuelled by lingering domestic political uncertainty, with speculation over internal Labour Party tensions weighing on broader confidence in the UK outlook.

GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Leadership in Focus

Looking ahead, attention is likely to centre on the anticipated announcement of Donald Trump’s nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, a development that could drive significant volatility in GBP/USD.

Should the chosen candidate be viewed as supportive of more aggressive interest rate cuts, the US Dollar may face renewed selling pressure.

Conversely, a nomination perceived as safeguarding Federal Reserve independence could help the Greenback recover some of its recent losses.

In the meantime, with little in the way of major UK data releases scheduled, movement in the Pound is expected to remain closely tied to global risk appetite and broader market dynamics.

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Created on January 26, 2026

• The Euro was grinding just a touch higher despite the fact that it initially fell as the day started. Ultimately, we find ourselves watching the same important level heading into the weekend.

EUR/USD

The Euro was grinding just a touch higher after initially falling on Friday due to the overall US dollar weakness rather than any intrinsic Euro strength. The primary driver at the moment is heightened political risk in the US, specifically the volatility surrounding the recent tariff threats around Greenland.

But this is just a momentary blip on the radar, and the question now is where these currencies deserve to be. On one hand, we have seen the dollar get punished, and money flew into places like gold and, by default, the Euro. That being said, there is immediate resistance just above the 1.18 level and then again at the 1.1850 level, and I think it’s going to be very difficult to break above there as it has shown multiple times in the past.

Lack of Momentum

Because of this, I anticipate that this sets up for a shorting opportunity early in the week next week, as Friday has shown a real lack of momentum or, quite frankly, interest at this point in time. With that being the case, I think the overall range remains from 1.14 on the bottom to 1.1850 on the top.

The 50-day EMA has provided short-term support between those two levels over the last couple of days and currently sits at the 1.1675 level. Ultimately, I think this is a market that doesn’t really have anywhere to be anytime soon, although it’s clear that the bullish behavior is fairly resilient. But the question now is, as we rise towards the major resistance barrier, is there anything to make it break out? As things stand right now, it.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD analysis and predictions? Here are the best European brokers to choose from.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The GBPJPY pair approached from the main target at 215.00 level, forming strong barrier against the attempt of resuming the bullish attack, to force it form strong corrective decline, to resume forming bearish price gap this morning, to settle below the bullish channel’s support at 210.95 level.

The stability below the broken support and providing bearish momentum by the main indicators will confirm the dominance of the bearish bias, to expect suffering extra losses by reaching 209.65 followed by %200 Fibonacci extension level at 208.50.

The expected trading range for today is between 209.65 and 210.80

Trend forecast: Bearish by the stability of 211.00

The GBPJPY pair approached from the main target at 215.00 level, forming strong barrier against the attempt of resuming the bullish attack, to force it form strong corrective decline, to resume forming bearish price gap this morning, to settle below the bullish channel’s support at 210.95 level.

The stability below the broken support and providing bearish momentum by the main indicators will confirm the dominance of the bearish bias, to expect suffering extra losses by reaching 209.65 followed by %200 Fibonacci extension level at 208.50.

The expected trading range for today is between 209.65 and 210.80

Trend forecast: Bearish by the stability of 211.00

Japanese Leading Economic Indicator in Focus

Later on Monday, Japanese economic indicators are likely to fuel speculation about an April Bank of Japan rate hike. According to the preliminary report, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased from 109.8 in October to 110.5 in November, suggesting a pickup in economic momentum.

An upward revision to the preliminary number would raise expectations of an April BoJ rate hike, boosting buying interest in the yen. The stronger yen would push USD/JPY lower.

Traders should pay close attention to LEI trends. A higher reading suggests improving business investment, rising employment, and higher wages. Importantly, stronger wage growth would increase households’ purchasing power, fueling spending and demand-driven inflation.

An upward trend in consumption and inflation would align with the BoJ’s upward revisions to inflation in its quarterly outlook report, supporting a more hawkish BoJ rate path.

Rising bets on BoJ rate hikes and Fed rate cuts reaffirm the bearish medium- to longer-term price projections.

US Durable Goods Orders and the Fed in Focus

While the yen gets government support, US economic data will influence the appetite for the US Dollar. Durable goods orders, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will be in focus. However, durable goods order trends are likely to garner more attention, given that the Index gives insight into business and consumer spending.

Economists expect durable goods orders to rise 0.5% month-on-month in November after sliding 2.2% in October. A higher-than-expected reading would indicate a pickup in manufacturing sector activity, bolstering the US economy. However, the numbers may have limited influence on Fed rate-cut bets, given that the manufacturing sector accounts for just 20% of US GDP.

Traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ speeches, which will likely have more influence on sentiment toward an H1 2026 Fed rate cut and USD/JPY trends.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

For USD/JPY price trends, traders should consider technicals and closely follow central bank and political headlines.

On the daily chart, USD/JPY trades below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), but above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs signaled a near-term bearish trend reversal, aligning with the negative outlook for USD/JPY. Constructive yen fundamentals have aligned with the near-term technicals.

A sustained drop below the 155 support level would expose the 200-day EMA. If breached, 150 would be the next key support level.

Crucially, a sustained fall through the EMAs would reaffirm the bearish short- to medium-term price outlook.

I wrote on the 11^th January that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair following a daily close above ¥158. This set up the next Monday, but produced a loss of 0.04% over the week.
2. Long of the S&P 500 Index. This produced a loss of 0.23% by the end of the week.
3. Long of Silver following a daily close above $81.25. This set up on Monday and produced a gain of 5.82% by the end of the week.
4. Long of Gold following a daily close above $4,533.21. This set up on Monday and produced a loss of 0.03% by the end of the week.
5. Long of Copper (CPER) following a daily close above $37.27. This set up on Wednesday and produced a loss of 4.16% by the end of the week.

Overall, these trades gave a gain of 1.36% (0.27% per asset).

A summary of last week’s most important data that caused any surprise or uncertainty in the market:

1. US Final GDP data came in a tick higher than expected, showing an annualized rate of 4.4% compared to 4.3%. However, although the broader US stock market (represented by the Russell 2000 Index) enjoyed a strong rise in January while the S&P 500 Index has traded mostly sideways, this data does not seem to have made much difference to the market.
2. The Bank of Japan held a policy meeting last Friday and left its Policy Rate at 0.75% as widely expected. The Japanese Yen continued to weaken quite strongly over the week, with the Bank of Japan effectively trapped by huge debt. However, later on Friday, the Japanese authorities called major banks and threatened intervention to prop up the Yen, and this alone was enough to send the Yen sharply higher over the final hours of the week’s trading session.
3. UK CPI (inflation) was expected to rise from 3.2% to 3.3%, it rose to 3.4%.
4. New Zealand CPI (inflation) was expected to fall from 1.0% to 0.5%, it came in slightly higher at 0.6%.

Last week’s data had very limited impact. It is likely that continuing geopolitical tensions between the USA and Iran, following the USA’s successful abduction of President Maduro of Venezuela, had more impact last week than any of the above items, excepting the Bank of Japan’s threat to intervene by buying Yen.

The USA has continued to send military assets towards Iran and build up what look like preparations for a war. The internet remains blocked in Iran, but limited information emerging from medical sources suggest that far more than the officially admitted 3,500 killings have taken place, and continue to take place, with some estimates placing the civilian death toll as high as 80,000. What does seem clear is that the regime is determined to survive and is willing to kill unarmed protestors in significant numbers to do so.

President Trump continues to hint at helping and protecting the protestors. Most neighboring countries are publicly opposed to any US military action in support of the protestors, and it remains unclear exactly what the US could do to improve the situation by military action. There is also concern that Iran could launch a pre-emptive strike, with reports that China has airlifted a significant amount of advanced military equipment to Iran in recent days.

In addition to Iran, we also saw President Trump continue to express a desire to acquire Greenland, severely straining ties between the USA and the EU. Although Trump ruled out using force, his behaviour towards the EU and by extension NATO is extremely disrespectful.

These factors have also shaken the US Dollar, whose sharp drop last week seems to have nothing to do with the Fed at all, even though the Fed will be holding a policy meeting this week.

On a final note, President Trump over the weekend began to threaten Canada with a new 100% tariff over its potential trade deal with China. If implemented, this could cause turbulence for the greenback and serious turbulence for the Canadian Dollar as well.

The coming week’s most important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US Federal Reserve Policy Meeting
2. US PPI
3. Bank of Canada Policy Meeting
4. Australia CPI (inflation)
5. Canadian GDP
6. US Unemployment Claims

Although there are not a lot of data items, the first few are highly important for the Forex market, so it could be an important week. Monday is a public holiday in Australia.

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

For the month of January 2026, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value.

January 2026 Monthly Forecast Performance to Date

Two weeks ago, I made no forecast, as there were no recent excessive moves in currency crosses. However, last week saw three crosses with excessive volatility, so I made the following weekly forecast this week:

• Short NZD/JPY
• Short AUD/JPY
• Short NZD/CAD

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars were the strongest major currency last week, while the US Dollar was the weakest. Directional volatility rose significantly last week, with 67% of all major pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. This is the most volatility we have seen in the Forex market since April 2025.

Next week’s volatility is likely to remain relatively high.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Last week, the US Dollar Index printed an unusually large bearish candlestick which closed right on its low. This was the largest bearish candlestick since April 2025, and lowest weekly close since June 2025. These are very bearish signs. The price action suggests a long-term bearish trend with the price below its levels of both 13 and 26 weeks ago. However, it is worth noting that the lows made last autumn and in the summer remain intact below the current price.

The slightly stronger than expected US economic data released last week helped firm up the Dollar, as it has given a slightly hawkish tilt against rate cut expectations in 2026, although two rate cuts of 0.25% are still widely seen as likely to happen.

I take a weakly bullish bias on the US Dollar right now and am comfortable being long of the greenback.

US Dollar Index Weekly Price Chart

The AUD/USD currency pair advanced very strongly last week, powering up with unusually high volatility to a new 15-month high.

The price closed very near its high, which is another bullish sign.

There is a long-term bullish trend here which has been in force for about 9 months.

There is also a fundamental reason for the Australian Dollar’s strength – it is practically the only major currency except the US Dollar where there is a credible belief that its central bank is going to raise interest rates soon.

This move high is probably a bit over-extended, but I think that after an orderly bearish pullback, we could see a good opportunity for a long swing trade on the bounce.

AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

The EUR/USD currency pair has been range-bound, trading sideways on low volatility, for many months now. Last week, it suddenly jumped, as the US Dollar made its strongest fall in almost 9 months.

The price closed right on the high of the week’s range, which is a bullish sign.

Despite these bullish signs, a few months ago there was a strong inflection point which closed at $1.1866, and this has not yet been tested. I would like to see bulls overcome this price level before going long.

This currency pair has a good propensity to trend, but with deep and frequent retracements.

So, I think this pair is worth keeping an eye on with a potential long trade entry, but I am not ready to enter just yet.

I will take a long trade if we get a daily (New York) close above $1.1866.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Silver is still showing very high volatility, and it rose like crazy over the week, reaching and breaching the magic round number at $100. This is a very big deal. It closed right on its high, and its sister precious metal Gold also rose strongly. These are very bullish signs. Just look at the weekly price chart below!

I had thought that we would see major profit-taking at $100 but this does not seem to have happened at all.

If you are not long already, you might have missed the party, but there is no reason why this metal won’t go substantially higher, possibly even to $125.

I think it makes sense to think about getting long here, but with a smaller than usual position size.

Silver Weekly Price Chart

Gold saw a strong rise last week, as did all other precious metals, notably Silver. Gold ended the week right on its high after making its strongest weekly gain in many months. Although these seem to be bullish factors, there might be some fear that this large candlestick could be a pre-exhaustion peak. My suspicion here is enhanced by the fact that the price stopped just short of the huge round number at $5,000.

Still, we are seeing record high prices in Gold, Silver, and Platinum, and extremely powerful bullish momentum, especially here in Silver.

I am prepared to enter another long trade if we do get a new record high daily (New York) closing price above $5,000.

Gold Daily Price Chart

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of the EUR/USD currency pair following a daily close above $1.1866.
2. Long of Silver.
3. Long of Gold following a daily close above $5,000.

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