– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP Holds Firm Despite USD Recovery

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slipped back from 20-day highs near 1.3400 as renewed Middle East tensions encouraged investors to rotate back into the US Dollar. Despite the pullback, Sterling remained relatively resilient, with markets continuing to favour the Pound on improving UK sentiment while awaiting fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

GBP/USD Forecasts: 3-Week Highs

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate posted a strong advance to 3-week highs at 1.3430 in Asian trading on Thursday before a significant retreat to near 1.3400.

A break above 1.3450 could trigger a challenge on 2-month highs in the 1.36 area.

The dollar and Pound have both continued to gain traction in global markets with the focus on energy prices and yields.

The dollar gained initial support from a dip in risk appetite, but asset prices overall were resilient while higher yields underpinned the Pound.

ING commented; “High-yielding currencies can enjoy better insulation against the stronger dollar given the summer months and investors’ tendency to jump into carry trade positions on any sell-off.”

There will, however, still be unease over underlying UK fiscal trends and a further increase in yields could start to undermine the Pound, especially if there are renewed fears over the economic policies under Prime Minister Burnham.

After strong gains on Wednesday, oil prices were little changed, but with a gain of over 10% this week.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com commented; “A flare-up of Middle East tensions has rattled global markets again and jammed a war risk premium back into asset prices.”

There are also potential implications for Federal Reserve policy

Rodda added; “A jump in oil prices could bring forward the timing of a Fed hike.”

According to ING; “Our bias is that higher energy prices will provide fuel for the Fed hawks and keep the dollar supported on dips – particularly against the low yielders.

MUFG also noted potential risks; “If tensions in the region were to intensify further and the price of oil continue to rise sharpy, it could reinforce the USD’s recent upward momentum especially now that the Fed has indicated that it is open to raising rates this year. US yields moved back towards recent highs yesterday.”

Minutes from June’s Federal Reserve minutes suggested two clear scenarios. One group indicated that rate cuts will be delayed while another section will want a near-term rate hike if inflation remains high.

MUFG is still cautious over the dollar outlook; “Overall, the minutes support our view that the new Fed Chair Warsh will favour leaving rates on hold if energy prices remain at lower levels. We expect the US dollar to give back recent gains if Fed rate hike expectations are disappointed, although acknowledged that renewed tensions in the Middle East pose upside risks.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

2026.07.10 2026.07.10
USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 10.07.26–17.07.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 160.35 with a target of 165.00–170.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 160.35. Stop Loss: below 159.80, Take Profit: 165.00–170.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 160.35 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 158.90–158.00. A sell signal: the level of 160.35 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 160.90, Take Profit: 158.90–158.00.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 160.35 with a target of 165.00–170.00.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 160.35 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 158.90–158.00.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending third wave of larger degree 3 has formed, a downward correction has been completed as the fourth wave 4, and the fifth wave 5 is developing. On the daily chart, the third wave of smaller degree (3) of 5 appears to be developing, with wave 3 of (3) forming as its part. On the H4 time frame, wave i of 3 has formed, a local correction has been completed as wave ii of 3, and wave iii of 3 has started developing. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to rise to 165.00–170.00. The level of 160.35 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 158.90–158.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

The GBPJPY pair approached the extra target at 218.10 by its last bullish rally, but its neediness to the bullish momentum by stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level that pushed it to form corrective rebound, to settle near 217.00.

The continuation of the trading fluctuation below the barrier at 118.10 makes us expect forming corrective trading, to target 216.30 level reaching the extra support near 215.45, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will open the way for resuming the bullish trend, reminding you that the stability of the next main target near 218.65 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 216.55 and 218.10

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend

The GBPJPY pair approached the extra target at 218.10 by its last bullish rally, but its neediness to the bullish momentum by stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level that pushed it to form corrective rebound, to settle near 217.00.

The continuation of the trading fluctuation below the barrier at 118.10 makes us expect forming corrective trading, to target 216.30 level reaching the extra support near 215.45, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will open the way for resuming the bullish trend, reminding you that the stability of the next main target near 218.65 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 216.55 and 218.10

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend

The British pound initially rallied against the USD on Thursday but seems to be running into a touch of trouble.

GBP/USD

The British pound initially rallied against the US dollar during trading here on Thursday, and it then tested an area that was a major resistance barrier just waiting to happen, where supply had come into the market aggressively several days ago. Now we find ourselves trying to form a bit of a shooting star just above the 200-day EMA. We have to ask whether or not the sellers are going to get aggressive.

Interest rates in America did dip just a touch. I think you also have a situation where it’s difficult to get aggressive against the US dollar, although you can certainly make an argument if there is one currency that probably has a good shot at really taking it to the US dollar, it’s the British pound.

Middle East Chaos and Range Dynamics

That being said, I think there are a lot of questions right now about what’s going to happen next in the Middle East, and that’s causing some chaos. The markets, I believe, continue to just hang around this area, and I just don’t see how markets are looking for a big move in one direction or the other. This is a currency pair that tends to range quite a bit, and we are basically in the middle of the range from last year. So, a little bit of hesitation here makes sense. Maybe a short-term selling opportunity, but I think you’re somewhat in no man’s land.

I did this yesterday, I put this out, and I suggested that maybe the British pound is a great measure of the US dollar. If the pound starts to fall, then that means your dollar is going to strengthen against multiple other currencies. If the US dollar starts to fall apart, you should see the pound be one of the biggest beneficiaries. So, I think this is still very much a tertiary indicator more than anything else.

Ready to trade our daily Forex GBP/USD analysis? We’ve made this UK forex brokers list for you to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Retreats as Risk Appetite Weakens

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slipped back from 20-day highs near 1.3400 as renewed Middle East tensions encouraged investors to rotate back into the US Dollar.

Despite the pullback, Sterling remained relatively resilient, with markets continuing to favour the Pound on improving UK sentiment while awaiting fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Retreat from 20-Day Highs

After hitting 20-day highs at 1.3400 on Tuesday, the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has retreated to below 1.3350, although overall selling has remained limited.

The dollar gained support from a slide in risk appetite amid fresh fears surrounding Middle East developments while equities moved lower which curbed potential Pound support.

Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank commented; “The USD has reacted, but the market has learnt to take Trump’s comments with a pinch of salt. The remarks may be meant to bring the opposition to the table. Nevertheless, they will raise anxiety levels another notch.”

Immediate support comes in just above 1.3300. According to UoB; “Upward momentum has slowed with the pullback, and a breach of 1.3315 would indicate that the advance in GBP has come to an end.

Scotiabank is still relatively positive on the Pound outlook; “The recovery in UK-US spreads is offering fundamental support to the GBP, and compounding the sentiment-related strength observed in response to the market’s favourable assessment of the current UK leadership transition.

It added; “The recovery looks to have stalled around 1.34, with clear resistance offered by both the 50 and 200 day MA’s. We remain bullish however, and look to an extension of the GBP’s gains toward 1.36.”

Minutes from June’s Federal Reserve meeting will be released on Wednesday.

According to ING; “Based on post-meeting communication, we see limited risk of a dovish surprise in the minutes. We expect a cementing of the hawkish message to firm up dollar momentum.”

It added; “although we don’t expect it to lead to a break higher as markets may be reluctant to reprice rate expectations aggressively higher after the soft jobs report.”

Danske Bank is still backing Fed rate hikes; “Our base case is still that the Fed will remain on hold in July, but hike twice later, in December and March respectively.”

MUFG is less positive on the dollar outlook; “The CPI data next week will be key for the July FOMC. But the prospects look good to us that next week should convey signs of the start of disinflation.”

It added; “Leveraged Funds have turned very long dollars very quickly with the flow of data not particularly compelling in backing that up while Warsh’s tag as a hawk is also not well backed up. Sentiment and positioning could well turn quickly if next week’s CPI data is softer and Fed Chair Warsh fails to live up to his hawkish tag at his first semi-annual testimony.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts