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28
04, 2026
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Plunges Below 186.50, Nine-Day Confluence Signals Bearish Shift
28
04, 2026
Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Climbs Above 1.3550 as USD Retreats
– Written by
Ben Hughes
STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Climbs Above 1.3550 as USD Retreats
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has climbed to 10-day highs above 1.3550, as the dollar softened ahead of key central bank decisions and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Sterling has also drawn support from expectations of a relatively hawkish Bank of England stance, although elevated energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and weak UK retail data continue to pose risks to further gains.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Advances to 10-Day Highs
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USd) exchange rate advanced to 10-day highs just above 1.3550 on Monday. The dollar index retreated to around 98.30 as the US currency lost ground.
The Pound also held firm amid expectations of a relatively hawkish Bank of England policy statement on Thursday. There are, however, also significant UK economic risks, illustrated by a notably downbeat CBI retail sales survey with the headline reading at a record low.
SEB has a year-end GBP/USD forecast of 1.36 with the dollar and Pound both posting notable losses in global markets.
Markets were continuing to monitor Iran developments and energy prices. Formal negotiations have not resumed, but there are reports that Iran had proposed opening the Strait of Hormuz if nuclear talks are delayed.
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European equities secured limited gains, but oil prices increased again.
According to ING; “DXY is offered again on the Iranian news, but with oil prices staying high and central banks yet to react, we caution against chasing it lower again too soon.”
Bank of America commented; “we expect more 2-way risks from here as progress is elusive and oil supply remains an issue.”
Federal Reserve policy and guidance will also be a key element this week with the latest interest rate decision due on Wednesday. At the end of last week, the US Justice Department announced that it had dropped its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
MUFG commented; “The developments make it more likely that Kevin Warsh will replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when his term expires on 15th May, although it remains unclear if Jerome Powell will also step down from the Board of Governors given the lingering threat to re-open a criminal investigation.
It added; “The US rate market still judges that there is a higher probability that the next Fed policy move will be a cut rather than a hike remaining a headwind for the US dollar.”
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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts
28
04, 2026
US Dollar Price Forecast: Safe Haven Demand Rises on Iran Tensions – GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook Today
DXY is currently trading at 98.67, stuck below the downward sloping trendline that has consistently sunk every attempted rally. Candlesticks keep showing the pattern of repeatedly getting knocked back down near 99.18, which is no surprise given it’s a clear resistance level. The downward sloping moving averages are just another bearish sign to add to the list.
Elsewhere, the RSI is hovering around 44, which suggests that momentum is very weak but still not quite to the point of being oversold. The first line of defence for buyers is at 98.23, with a more significant support level located at 97.82.
Break below 98.00 and watch as the price drops all the way to 97.49. On the other hand bulls will need a strong close above 99.18 to even think about challenging 99.53
Trade idea: Think about selling if we see a break below $98.20, and be prepared to stop out if we get a close above $99.20.
GBP/USD Steadies at 1.3508 – The Uptrend looks healthy but the Bulls are getting a bit tired
28
04, 2026
The GBPJPY hovers near the barrier– Forecast today – 27-4-2026
No news for GBPJPY pair until this moment, confined between 214.80 support, while 215.70 level keeps forming a strong barrier against the bullish attempts, forcing it to provide sideways trading by its fluctuation near 215.60.
Note that stochastic approach 80 level might help it to provide extra positive momentum to surpass the current barrier, reinforcing the chances of reaching new bullish stations that might begin at 216.40 and 216.90, while the failure of the breach will increase the chances of forming bearish corrective waves, to press on the previously mentioned support and surpassing it will make the initial main target at 214.10 level in the bearish trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.80 and 215.70
Trend forecast: Sideways
28
04, 2026
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA support near 186.50
EUR/JPY inches lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 186.70 during Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is positioned within the ascending channel, signaling an ongoing bullish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross holds a bullish near-term bias as it consolidates above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), respectively. The currency cross is hovering just under the recent highs, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60, suggesting positive but not extreme momentum that keeps the door open for another push higher while dips remain contained.
The EUR/JPY cross may advance toward the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances above this level would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the channel, around 189.70.
On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 186.75, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 186.60. A sustained break below the channel would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the 50-day EMA at 184.94.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.03% | -0.30% | -0.17% | -0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.22% | -0.09% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.07% | -0.02% | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.22% | -0.09% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.08% | -0.20% | -0.09% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.27% | -0.16% | 0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.30% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.20% | 0.27% | 0.14% | 0.28% | |
| NZD | 0.17% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.16% | -0.14% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.01% | -0.28% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
27
04, 2026
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Bearish Hesitation Above 0.8655 Signals Persistent Downside Risk
27
04, 2026
Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Bank of England in Focus as GBP Struggles
– Written by
Frank Davies
STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Bank of England in Focus as GBP Struggles
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has drifted around 1.3500, with markets cautious ahead of the upcoming Bank of England policy update and ongoing uncertainty surrounding energy prices and UK politics.
While stronger UK data has offered some support, rising cost pressures, leadership risks, and expectations that the Bank of England may hold rates are limiting Sterling’s upside.
GBP/USD Forecasts: BoE update due
ING forecasts that the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will edge lower to 1.33 at the end of 2026 before a slight gain to 1.36 at the end of next year.
GBP/USD drifted lower during the week to trade around 1.35 amid further uncertainty surrounding the Iran situation and mixed UK fundamentals.
Energy prices will remain a key short-term element. Matsui Securities commented; “Oil and the dollar are still moving pretty closely together, and with crude creeping back up, I’d say the dollar is still staying fairly firm.”
There were further political concerns during the week as the Mandelson scandal continued.
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ING commented; “the risk of a leadership change in Downing Street is growing. Markets are wary that a new prime minister – and, by extension, chancellor – might mean more borrowing and looser fiscal rules.
The headline UK PMI business confidence data was stronger than expected, but business confidence dipped to the lowest level since 2022 and there was a very sharp increase in cost pressures and prices.
The Bank of England remains in a very difficult position. Following the data, markets priced in a 75% chance of a rate hike by June.
ING discussed the April 30th BoE decision; “in short, we’d expect the Bank to keep its options open. Avoid doing anything that could add to rate hike bets in markets, but without trying to actively talk them down, either.
It added; “Ultimately, though, we don’t think the Bank will hike rates this year – not at the current level of energy prices. We expect rates to stay at 3.75% in April and June, and for the rest of 2026.”
Bank of America also remains cautious over the UK outlook; “Despite a much better unemployment reading, underlying weakness persists. And the unfolding energy shock will also revive fears of higher unemployment in the near-term.
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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts
27
04, 2026
USD/JPY forecast: triangle forms ahead of FOMC, BoJ rate decisions
The USD/JPY exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) publish their interest rate decisions. It was trading slightly below the important resistance level at 160 as traders wait for these events and as the Iran crisis continued.
BoJ interest rate decision
The USD to Japanese yen will be in focus this week as the BoJ releases the latest interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as it observes the impact of the ongoing war to the economy.
A report released on Friday showed that Japan’s inflation continued rising in March as the war boosted energy prices. This rise will continue as there are signs that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue for a while.
The US has been open to talks with Iran, which the latter has resisted. Last week, the Iranians remained non-commital on talks even as President Donald Trump insisted that they would happen. At some point, he noted that JD Vance was on his way to Pakistan only for his motorcade to show up in the White House.
The same situation happened during the weekend. To save face, Trump shared that the team would not travel to Pakistan, citing the fact that Iranian leaders were divided. Iran has rejected these claims.
In addition to the headline decision, the BoJ will likely provide a guidance on what to expect in the upcoming meetings. For one, the IMF has called for the bank to hike interest rates, which analysts believe is possible. Officials will also highlight measures to boost the Japanese yen, which has crashed in the past few years.
Federal Reserve decision and key macro data
The next key catalyst for the USD/JPY will be the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. Like the BoJ, analysts expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% in this meeting.
The bank, which has been under pressure to cut rates from Trump, sees no need to do so as inflation remains high. The most recent data showed that the headline consumer inflation jumped to 3.3% and the OECD expects it will rise to 4.3% this year.
Worse, there are signs that the US is moving towards a stagflation, a period characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth. For example, an economic report expected this week will show that the economy expanded by less than two percent in the first quarter.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView
The weekly chart shows that the USD to JPY pair has moved to the psychological level at 160. It has moved comfortably above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, a sign that bulls are in control.
The pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is made up of a horizontal support and a diagonal line. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it rebounds, potentially to the key resistance level at 163.
27
04, 2026
The EURJPY repeats the negative closes– Forecast today – 27-4-2026
No news for GBPJPY pair until this moment, confined between 214.80 support, while 215.70 level keeps forming a strong barrier against the bullish attempts, forcing it to provide sideways trading by its fluctuation near 215.60.
Note that stochastic approach 80 level might help it to provide extra positive momentum to surpass the current barrier, reinforcing the chances of reaching new bullish stations that might begin at 216.40 and 216.90, while the failure of the breach will increase the chances of forming bearish corrective waves, to press on the previously mentioned support and surpassing it will make the initial main target at 214.10 level in the bearish trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.80 and 215.70
Trend forecast: Sideways
27
04, 2026
GBP/USD Forecast: Bulls eye 1.3600 as USD weakens on peace hopes
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers in the vicinity of the 1.3500 psychological mark and climbs to over a one-week top during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.3500s, up 0.10% for the day, and seem poised to appreciate further.
The US Dollar (USD) turns lower in reaction to the optimism led by reports that Iran gave the US a new proposal on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the war. Furthermore, sliding Oil prices ease inflationary concerns and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which exerts additional pressure on the USD and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Apart from this, bets for further policy tightening by the Bank of England (BoE) this year underpin the British Pound (GBP) and validate the positive outlook for the currency pair.
The recent corrective pullback from the 1.3600 neighborhood, or a two-month peak, stalled ahead of a confluence comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March downfall. The subsequent move up beyond the 50% retracement level reaffirms the constructive outlook. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 59 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in positive territory, hinting that buyers still retain control even as the advance begins to slow.
Initial resistance is seen at a structural standpoint near the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 1.3608, which guards a deeper extension toward the recent swing highs. On the downside, the 50.0% retracement at 1.3523 is the first line of support, followed by the 38.2% level at 1.3437 and then the 23.6% retracement at 1.3332, with the 1.3161 area acting as a more distant structural floor if the broader pullback extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
GBP/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.33% | -0.19% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.01% | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.22% | -0.09% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.04% | -0.24% | -0.12% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.11% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.08% | -0.22% | -0.10% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.08% | -0.28% | -0.16% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.33% | 0.22% | 0.24% | 0.22% | 0.28% | 0.14% | 0.28% | |
| NZD | 0.19% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.10% | 0.16% | -0.14% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.10% | -0.00% | -0.28% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).