• The GBP/USD weekly forecast turns strongly bullish as the dollar loses traction amid geopolitics.
• The upbeat UK CPI, retail sales, and PMI data provided adequate support to the pair.
• Markets await the FOMC rate decision and press conference next week.

GBPUSD ended last week with sterling fundamentals improving, but price action still leaned heavily on USD headline risk and US rate expectations.

In the UK, inflation re-accelerated as CPI rose 3.4% YoY in December (from 3.2%), which typically reduces the market’s confidence in rapid BoE easing and helped GBP on the day by lifting front-end UK yields. Activity and demand data also surprised positively: UK retail sales rose 0.4% MoM in December (versus expectations for a fall), adding to signs of a pickup and supporting sterling sentiment, even if the FX follow-through was at times modest.

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The UK flash PMI set added to the constructive tone by signalling continued expansion in private-sector activity, reinforcing the idea that the UK economy is not rolling over into the BoE’s subsequent decisions.

On the US side, “good” data didn’t translate into a stronger dollar because geopolitics dominated. The US economy’s momentum was confirmed as Q3 2025 GDP was revised up to a 4.4% annualized pace, and business surveys stayed expansionary with the S&P Global flash PMIs showing manufacturing at 51.9 and composite at 52.8 in January.

At the same time, tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland added to volatility in the risk premium. Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries under pressure from Greenland. Later, he also said that a “framework” had been talked about after meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Denmark and Greenland both stated that their sovereignty is not negotiable. That mix made the markets jumpy and hurt steady demand for the USD.

In the next week, there won’t be any big UK releases, so the tape will lead. So, GBPUSD should mostly trade like a Fed-week USD cross, reacting to changes in US yield expectations and any new geopolitical or tariff news.

If the Fed is hawkish, the USD can be stronger than the improving data pulse of the GBP. Conversely, if the Fed stays balanced and yields fall, the GBP can hold up better than its peers, given last week’s hotter CPI and stronger activity signals.

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GBP/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Bullish Above 1.3565

The GBPUSD daily chart shows a strong bullish candle piercing the 1.3565 resistance level, followed by the 1.3600 psychological mark. However, the RSI approaching the overbought region indicates a potential pullback to the 1.3565 area before an upside continuation.

The upside target for the pair lies at 1.3700, ahead of 1.3750. On the downside, if the price breaks and stays below the 1.3565 level could gather further selling pressure and drag towards 1.3500.

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Created on January 23, 2026

• The US dollar rallied against the Japanese yen on Thursday, but it should be known that the Bank of Japan meeting will keep things quiet until the statement and press conference on Friday.

The US dollar rallied against the Japanese yen on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of back-and-forth trading, but focus on the interest rate differential. We did give back some of the gains, and that makes a certain amount of sense as well, due to the fact that Friday is possibly going to be a volatile session as the Bank of Japan continues to see a lot of questions asked about its interest rate policy.

It will, in fact, give its latest update on its interest rate policy. The change is expected to be nothing, but the statement will be where people pay the most attention to. If they sound particularly dovish, that could send the US dollar much higher against the Japanese yen, and I think we would tag the 160 yen level.

Support and Volatility

A pullback at this point in time probably sees support near the 156.20 level, where the 50-day EMA is hanging around. I do expect a lot of volatility, and I do think dips will offer buying opportunities unless, of course, the Bank of Japan does something completely unexpected like hike aggressively.

I don’t think that’s going to be the case; quite frankly, they have too much debt to do that. Expect volatility, a lot of noisy behavior, and at this point, be cautious about selling into negativity.

I think that negativity, if you are patient enough, will offer a nice opportunity to continue to add to a position that, quite frankly, has paid you quite well since the middle of April. Of course, you get paid at the end of every day, right along with that.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Tests Upper Ranges

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has pushed to 1.3535, as foreign exchange analysts at ING and MUFG argue that confidence in US policymaking has not fully recovered, keeping the risk of renewed “Sell America” flows alive despite calmer headlines.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Tight Ranges

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has been held in relatively narrow ranges and trading around 1.3440 after again finding support near 1.34 with Pound support from a boost to risk appetite offset by a firmer dollar.

According to UoB; “we continue to expect range-trading today, most likely between 1.3400 and 1.3460.”

Given major global pressure points, it is dangerous to assume that narrow ranges will prevail.

According to ING; “Some downside risks for the dollar persist: more volatility in JGBs spilling into Treasuries, scrutiny on upcoming US tech earnings, reignition in geopolitical/tariff risk. But the macro picture should favour a bit more dollar strength in the coming days, in our view.”

Risk appetite secured an initial boost on Wednesday following President Trump’s comments that he would not use force to secure a deal on Greenland.

There was a further boost to confidence after the European close after Trump stated that a deal on Greenland had been reached with NATO Secretary-General Rutte and that the threatened tariffs on eight European countries from February 1st would not go ahead.

Markets were concerned that US threats would trigger selling in US bonds and equities which would hurt the dollar. With the immediate threat easing, there was a rebound in the dollar.

Commerzbank forex strategist Volkmar Baur commented; “From a European perspective, it is too early to rejoice.”

He added; “However, the most likely outcome is still that the next wave of excitement will pass us by after a brief period of volatility and that the market will refocus on central banks and interest rate differentials.”

ING considers that attention will turn towards the Federal Reserve policy decision next week.

According to the bank; “We discussed last week how Powell’s fierce response to the criminal investigation signalled upside risks to the dollar, as he and other members could have turned more hawkish in a meeting without any rate change to reinforce the independence message.”

The Supreme Court also held a hearing on the US Administration case to dismiss Fed Governor Cook. The initial signs are that the court is not mindful to back Trump due to the threat to Fed independence.

MUFG still sees dollar risks, but added; “The loss of confidence in US policymaking is likely to remain a headwind for the US dollar as we have seen at the start of this year. However, the risk of a sharper US dollar sell-off has diminished after President Trump’s quick climb down over Greenland, and early indications from the Supreme Court overnight that they are likely to rule against President Trump’s decision to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.”

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Created on January 23, 2026

• The Euro has rallied slightly on Thursday as the market continues to look to test the top of the overall range at the moment.

The Euro has rallied slightly during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of consolidation just above the 50-day EMA. The question at this point in time is whether or not the US dollar will crumble, and I think there is a specific trigger price that you will more likely than not have to pay attention to.

This would be the 1.1850 level. The recent swing high and the spot on the chart that I have circled from the September Federal Reserve interest rate decision. That was when we started to get the idea that perhaps the Americans were not going to aggressively cut as everybody had anticipated.

If we can break above there, that would be a very strong sign, but as things stand right now, this is more or less a market that is stuck in a range between 1.14 and 1.1850. I do think that you are looking for signs of exhaustion to start fading again.

Market Range and Sentiment

But if we get that move above 1.1850, then the Euro is likely to go looking to the 1.20 level after that. All things being equal, this is a market that moves very little most of the time, so the fact that it is range-bound should not be a huge surprise.

That being said, also, you could also look at this as a very well-defined range that you can play in both directions. It is worth noting that the most recent dip doesn’t seem to have been as negative as previous ones, so maybe we’re starting to lean more in the direction of the Euro. But we’ll just have to wait and see.

A lot of this will come down to US economic data, which recently has been a little softer than previously but still fairly resilient.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD analysis and predictions? Here are the best European brokers to choose from.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Copper price reached the initial corrective target at $5.6200, to begin forming new bullish waves, taking advantage of providing bullish momentum by stochastic, the price might begin building some bullish waves, depending on forming initial main support at $5.5100 level, which increases the chances of surpassing the barrier at $5.9700, then achieving new all time highs by its rally towards $6.1200 and $6.2100.

While the price declines below $5.5100 and holding below it will force it to provide bearish corrective trading, which forces it to suffer extra losses by reaching $5.3900 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.6500 and $5.9700

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price reached the initial corrective target at $5.6200, to begin forming new bullish waves, taking advantage of providing bullish momentum by stochastic, the price might begin building some bullish waves, depending on forming initial main support at $5.5100 level, which increases the chances of surpassing the barrier at $5.9700, then achieving new all time highs by its rally towards $6.1200 and $6.2100.

While the price declines below $5.5100 and holding below it will force it to provide bearish corrective trading, which forces it to suffer extra losses by reaching $5.3900 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.6500 and $5.9700

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rises on Trump TACO Trade

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded choppily on Thursday but retained an upward bias overall as improving risk appetite outweighed mixed UK and US data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3472, up more than 0.3% on the day.

The Pound (GBP) initially struggled to find direction, with stronger-than-expected UK data doing little to shield Sterling from broader market volatility.

Figures released earlier in the session showed UK public sector borrowing undershot expectations in December, supported by firmer tax receipts. This was followed by a sharp improvement in the Confederation of British Industry’s distributive trades survey, which rose to -17 in January from December’s -44, beating forecasts of -35.

Despite these constructive signals, Sterling failed to attract immediate follow-through. Instead, GBP traded in a narrow range as markets reacted to renewed volatility surrounding President Donald Trump’s abrupt shift in rhetoric on Greenland.

As the session progressed, however, sentiment improved. A more risk-positive backdrop emerged, lending support to the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound and allowing GBP/USD to grind higher into the latter part of the day.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) edged lower as demand for safe-haven assets ebbed.

After days of heightened tension between the US and Europe, President Trump appeared to soften his stance on Greenland during remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He ruled out the use of force, spoke of a “framework of a future deal” agreed with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and abandoned plans to impose tariffs on eight European nations backing Greenland, including the UK.

The easing in geopolitical tensions encouraged risk appetite and weighed on the Dollar. Later data offered little relief. The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, showed price pressures remained sticky in November but failed to generate meaningful support for USD.

Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: Retail Sales and PMIs in Focus

Looking ahead, the Pound could come under early pressure on Friday following the release of the UK’s December retail sales figures. A forecast 0.1% decline would mark a third consecutive monthly contraction and may undermine Sterling sentiment.

Attention will then turn to January’s preliminary UK services PMI. A modest improvement is expected, with the index forecast to edge up from 51.4 to 51.7. Such a limited change may struggle to drive GBP unless the data delivers a clear surprise.

Across the Atlantic, US PMI releases later in the session may influence USD sentiment. Forecast improvements in both manufacturing and services activity could offer the Dollar some late-session support.

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DAX Rebounds as Trump Backs Down Over Greenland and Tariffs

The , along with its European peers, has rebounded on Thursday after President Trump abandoned tariff threats linked to Greenland and also ruled out using force to take the territory.

Trump announced that he had withdrawn tariff threats after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, during which they reached a framework for a deal on Greenland’s future.

While details are few and far between, reports suggest the framework may involve mineral rights and the golden dome, Trump’s most ambitious missile defence plan yet. Greenland is home to a large amount of rare earth elements, many of which are crucial to technologies such as mobile phones and EVs.

NATO Secretary General said there was no discussion over the key issue of Danish sovereignty over Greenland

Trump’s comments have been enough to boost risk sentiment, calming fears of a potential trade war.

Those sectors which had been badly beaten in recent days are rebounding, with German automakers leading the charge higher.

With the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade in full swing, attention is also turning to financial updates. Volkswagen Europe’s largest carmaker is up 4.3% after posting better-than-expected net cash flow for 2025.

Attention will also be on U.S. data later today, including , the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, for October and November, although this may seem like old news now, as well as Q3 .

DAX Forecast – Technical Analysis

The DAX rebounded lower from its record high of 25,500 to a low of 24,350, although crucially closed above the 24,700 support level and the July and October highs, keeping the uptrend intact.

Buyers, encouraged by recovering momentum, will look to extend gains towards the 25,000 round number and 25,500 to fresh record highs.

Sellers would need to break meaningfully below the 24,700 level to negate the near-term uptrend. Below here, the 50 SMA and 200 SMA come into play at 24,275 and 23,930, also the mid-December low.

USD/JPY Rebounds as the “Sell America” Trade Unwinds

is rising as the holds onto yesterday’s gains after Trump backpedalled on trade tariffs and on Greenland, announcing a framework for a deal. As a result, investors unwound the “Sell America” trade, and risk sentiment has returned. 

In the absence of further updates regarding Greenland, attention will turn to US data and central banks. The US core PCE for October and November, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released, helping to clear some of the haze left by the US government shutdown at the end of last year. US GDP for Q3, as well as jobless claims, will also be watched for clues over the Fed’s next move.

The market is pricing in two by the Fed this year.

The yen is weakening and remains in intervention territory at these levels. However, Japanese long-dated government bonds are extending gains on Thursday after a steep sell-off at the start of the week. Expectations are rising that the finance ministry could take some measures to contain further rises in yields.

Attention is turning to the Bank of Japan’s rate decision early on Friday. The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at 0.75% after raising them to the highest level since 1995 in the December meeting.

Attention will be on the extent to which BoJ governor Ueda provides hawkish signals at a time when the yen is on the brink of a key level versus the dollar at 160. This is the level considered a rough line in the sand, where authorities step in for multiple rounds of intervention, as in 2024.

The BoJ will be paying closer attention to the impact of the currency on inflation, as further weakening could accelerate the pace of future rate hikes.

USD/JPY Forecast – Technical Analysis

USD/JPY eased lower from its 18-month high of 159.45, finding support on its multi-month rising trendline and recovering higher. The uptrend remains intact. The RSI supports further gains as long as it remains out of overbought territory.

Buyers will look to rise above 159.45 to create a higher high towards 160.00 and 162.00, the 2024 high.

Support is seen around 157.75, the November high and weekly low.  A break below here and the 50 SMA at 156.50 opens the door to 145.50, the December low.

Original Post

Natural gas price activated with the US data positively, to rally above the broken bullish channel’s support initially at $4.050 level, to settle above it and to open the way for today’s trading with strong positivity by its rally directly to $5.490.

The price might form corrective trading to attempt to gather some gains, but its stability above $4.750 level supports the continuation of the positivity, to expect resuming the bullish attack to reach $5.770, then press on the bullish channel’s resistance at $5.960.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.100 and $5.770

Trend forecast: Bullish