– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP Climbs on Strait of Hormuz Deal Hopes

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved higher on Wednesday as a brighter market mood reduced demand for traditional safe-haven currencies.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3478, up approximately 0.2% from Wednesday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened during Wednesday’s session as investors rotated away from defensive assets amid growing confidence that tensions in the Middle East could continue to ease.

Markets were encouraged by reports that negotiations involving the US, Iran and Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz were progressing well, fuelling expectations that an agreement could be reached in the near future.

The ‘Greenback’ also faced headwinds from a run of underwhelming US economic releases.

The latest ADP employment survey revealed private payroll growth slowed to just 44,000 in July, while the ISM services PMI also disappointed, indicating activity in the dominant services sector lost more momentum than expected.

The Pound (GBP) found modest support on Wednesday after revised survey data pointed to a healthier performance from the UK’s services sector.

July’s final S&P Global services PMI was revised higher from the preliminary estimate, signalling a stronger rebound in business activity after weakness earlier in the summer.

The improved figures reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could still retain a relatively hawkish stance later this year if domestic economic resilience persists.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Payrolls Report to Set the Tone for USD?

Looking ahead, trading in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate may remain cautious as investors await Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.

The employment figures are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Another disappointing labour market update would likely weaken confidence in a September rate hike and place further pressure on the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, with the UK economic calendar relatively quiet, Sterling’s direction is likely to remain closely linked to broader market sentiment. Should optimism surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to improve, the Pound may remain well supported against the safe-haven US Dollar.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on August 06, 2026

The US dollar dropped slightly on Wednesday, as we continue to dance around the 200 Day EMA

USD/JPY

The US dollar has pulled back ever so slightly against the Japanese yen and some other currencies as well, as the interest rates initially fell during the trading session. But as we roll into the afternoon in New York, we are starting to see those rates pick up just a touch. That should provide a little bit of strength for the dollar, and we are seeing a return to that strength in this pair as well, just a touch. We are hanging on to a trend line that goes all the way back to the lows at the end of March.

The question now is, will the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury Department, the Bank of Japan, everybody else continue to squash this pair, or will it change things? There are a lot of pundits out there who think mixed thoughts. One particular bank that I’m thinking of right now suggested that 2 billion dollars wasn’t enough to change the trend. I tend to agree with that.

200-Day EMA and Key Technical Support

That being said, we are in an area, the 200-day EMA, that will capture a lot of attention. I suspect this is going to be more of the same. It’s just a shot across the bow trying to slow down the hot money, while the longer-term investors watching a gradual climb aren’t so much the concern. It’s not necessarily the value of the yen that is the biggest problem; it is the rate of decay. It’s all about the second derivative, if you will.

Ultimately, I’m still in a position in this market. I have again added a small position on top of when I got involved back in the middle of September. This pays me at the end of every day, and it pays me triple swap on Wednesdays, so that could be something to watch on the way out the door.

Pay attention to the 158-yen level. If that gets broken to the upside, that could signal more buying as well. As far as selling is concerned, or getting out of a position, if we broke down below the hammer, I might do that and then focus maybe more on the dollar against the Swiss franc. But as things stand right now, I think we’re going to see some sideways action and then an eventual climb. That’s what’s happened the previous 3 times we’ve seen intervention, and of course, history does tend to repeat itself.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

BitcoinWorld

EUR/USD Forecast: UOB Sees Mild Upside Capped at 1.1565

Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) Group’s FX analysts maintained their view that the Euro is likely to see mild upside against the US Dollar, with resistance capped at 1.1565. The forecast, released in their latest note, suggests that while the single currency retains a modestly positive bias, the room for appreciation remains limited in the near term.

UOB’s Technical Outlook for EUR/USD

According to UOB’s technical analysis, the Euro’s movement against the Dollar is expected to stay within a narrow range, with any advance likely to encounter strong selling interest near the 1.1565 level. This level has acted as a significant resistance point in recent trading sessions, and the bank’s analysts do not anticipate a decisive break above it in the immediate future.

The forecast is based on a combination of technical indicators and prevailing market sentiment. UOB notes that while the Euro has shown some resilience, the overall momentum is not strong enough to push the pair beyond the mentioned cap. The bank’s view aligns with the broader market consensus that the EUR/USD pair is likely to remain range-bound until clearer directional cues emerge from economic data or central bank policy signals.

Market Context and Implications

The Euro’s performance against the Dollar has been influenced by a variety of factors, including divergent monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve. While the Fed has signaled a more hawkish stance to combat inflation, the ECB has maintained a relatively accommodative posture, which has limited the Euro’s upside potential.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth have contributed to a cautious sentiment in the currency markets. Investors are closely watching upcoming economic data releases, such as inflation figures and employment reports, for clues about the future direction of monetary policy. These factors are likely to play a crucial role in determining whether the Euro can challenge the 1.1565 level or if it will remain subdued.

What This Means for Traders and Investors

For traders, the UOB forecast suggests that any rallies toward 1.1565 could present selling opportunities, while dips may be seen as buying chances within the established range. However, a break above this level could signal a shift in momentum, potentially opening the door for further gains. As always, risk management and careful monitoring of economic indicators are essential in navigating the currency market.

Conclusion

UOB’s projection of mild upside capped at 1.1565 reflects a cautious but not overly bearish outlook for the Euro. The pair is likely to remain within a well-defined range in the near term, with the 1.1565 level acting as a key barrier. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming data and central bank commentary for potential catalysts that could alter the current dynamics.

FAQs

Q1: What is the significance of the 1.1565 level for EUR/USD?
The 1.1565 level is identified by UOB as a strong resistance point. In technical analysis, resistance is a price level where selling pressure is expected to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. A break above this level could indicate a shift in market sentiment and potentially lead to further gains.

Q2: Why is the Euro’s upside limited against the Dollar?
The Euro’s upside is limited primarily due to the monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed. The Fed’s more aggressive interest rate hikes have strengthened the Dollar, while the ECB’s more cautious approach has kept the Euro under pressure. Additionally, broader market uncertainties and geopolitical risks contribute to a cautious outlook.

Q3: How can traders use this forecast?
Traders can use this forecast to identify potential trading levels. For instance, they might consider selling near the 1.1565 resistance level or buying on dips within the expected range. However, it’s important to combine such forecasts with other analysis and risk management strategies, as currency markets can be unpredictable.

This post EUR/USD Forecast: UOB Sees Mild Upside Capped at 1.1565 first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

Created on August 05, 2026

The USD/JPY pair continues to see a lot of stability on Tuesday, as we are looking to see if the selling is over.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has stabilized against the Japanese yen right around the 200-day EMA after forming a nice hammer during the Monday session. The 158-yen level seems to be a short-term barrier at the moment, or maybe you could just say the 200-day EMA. It’s basically the same thing.

Keep in mind that the interest rate differential still favors the U.S. by a wide margin. It’s well over 3%; it’s a little closer to 3.5. So therefore, you get paid to hold this position. Now, I’ve been long in this market for months and have remained so despite the intervention because of the longer-term outlook for Japan.

While there are concerns about the carry trade potentially causing chaos in the financial system, the reality is the markets will do what the markets will do. And we’ve already seen them push back a little bit from this. You cleared out a lot of the hot latest money to come into the market. That’s generally what these things do. And then the overall trend will eventually follow where we were going in the first place.

Technical Analysis

From a technical analysis standpoint, that was about 224. That’s still true, despite the fact that we’ve had three really bad days. The real question is going to be over the next several sessions, maybe even the next couple of weeks, do we get more sideways or upward pressure? If we do, then I think that sets us up for another showdown down the road. This is all about position sizing.

Now, if we were to break down below maybe 154, then the trend’s broken completely. Then you start to have a completely different conversation. I’m not going to short this pair even if that’s the case, because quite frankly, why do I want to pay swap at the end of every day for a swing position? If I was going to buy the yen, I would find something that yields less. Without looking at it right now, maybe the Swiss franc against the Japanese yen might be a good pair.

Ultimately, though, inflationary numbers in the United States started to come down, but yesterday’s manufacturing PMI numbers were the hottest they’ve been in 12 years. And I can assure you as somebody that lives in the United States, people have not stopped shopping. The malls and the stores are just packed. And that doesn’t even include Amazon. So, we’ve seen a couple of these weird bumps in the road with US data since COVID. I think we’re in the middle of that again.

Ultimately, this is going to come down to the interest rate differential. Still, the rates are dropping over the last couple of days. Makes sense. People believe that the situation in the Middle East is closer to being solved somehow. And as long as that’s the case, then rates may drift a little bit. But I’m watching this very closely over the last couple of days. I’ve been on for about a year and three or four months, maybe.

I still think ultimately the Japanese yen is going to be just absolutely obliterated. The law of large numbers is still working against it. Quite frankly, they had to have the Americans come and bail them out.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

Foreign exchange analysts at ING expect EUR/USD to edge below 1.1500 as the Dollar regains ground, although Scotiabank sees the Euro holding within a 1.1500–1.1600 range.

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate has climbed back towards 1.1550, but fx analysts at ING think the latest recovery may be running a little ahead of the rate backdrop.

EUR/USD traded around 1.1547 on Wednesday, up from 1.1507 at the start of the week and more than 1.5% above its late-July low.

ING’s short-term fair-value model suggests the pair is now “modestly overvalued”, by around 0.5% to 1%.

“It’s not a very strong directional signal,” the bank said, “but does endorse our perception that EUR/USD needs help from a favourable shift in short-term rate differentials… to take another leap higher.”

That help would probably need to come from weaker US labour data and renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve could adopt a less hawkish stance.

ING believes the Dollar is now more evenly positioned after last week’s sell-off and sees “room for some USD recovery in the next couple of days”.

“If position-squaring exacerbated the dollar selloff last week, we think further USD losses from here require a more compelling macro argument,” it said.

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EUR/USD has recovered steadily over the past 48 hours, but resistance has emerged around the 1.1550 area.

The bank expects attention to remain firmly on US employment releases. Unless ADP and payrolls point to a clearly weakening jobs market, ING doubts the Dollar will surrender much more ground.

“Our baseline for this week is for EUR/USD to edge back below 1.150 on a more supported USD,” it said.

Even so, ING is not looking for a full reversal of the Euro’s recent gains.

“Unless US jobs figures come in particularly hot, we don’t see a return to 1.140 in the near term.”

Near-Term EUR/USD Outlook: Scotiabank Sees a 1.1500–1.1600 Range

Scotiabank takes a slightly more constructive view of the Euro’s latest rebound.

The bank said EUR/USD was “extending its latest consolidation in the mid/lower 1.15 area”, with the final Eurozone services and composite PMIs offering “a fractional improvement on the preliminary prints”.

From a valuation perspective, Scotiabank sees little obvious imbalance.

“The EUR is trading in line with a narrow FV estimate tied to 2Y spreads between the US and Germany, offering little in terms of directional risk from a fundamental perspective,” it said.

The technical picture has improved, however.

“The EUR’s latest recovery has been important, delivering a clear bullish shift in momentum and a break of trend resistance with the push above the 50-day MA,” Scotiabank said.

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EUR/USD has moved back above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages after recovering from June’s low near 1.1330.

Scotiabank identifies near-term resistance around 1.1550, followed by the 200-day moving average near 1.1630, and expects the pair to trade between 1.1500 and 1.1600.

That leaves a fairly narrow battleground. ING sees a modest dip below 1.1500 if US data hold up, while Scotiabank thinks the improving trend should limit the downside unless the Dollar receives a much stronger macro boost.

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TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Goldman Sachs sees GBP/USD falling towards 1.28 as UK fiscal risks and relatively high Bank of England pricing leave Pound Sterling vulnerable.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has recovered from late-July lows, but Goldman Sachs still expects Sterling to weaken towards 1.28.

GBP/USD was trading around 1.3446 on Tuesday, having gained 0.6% over the past month.

The pair touched 1.3558 in July before falling back, with the latest rebound largely driven by broad Dollar weakness.

Goldman has now closed its tactical short GBP/USD recommendation for a small profit, but its broader Sterling view remains cautious.

“We continue to expect Sterling underperformance over the medium term, driven by bouts of fiscal premium and an unwind of BoE hike pricing,” the bank said.

That leaves the direction lower even if the timing is less straightforward.

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GBP/USD has recovered from below 1.33, but the latest rally has struggled to hold above the 1.35 area.

Goldman says Sterling’s near-term risks are now “more balanced” after the recent rebound, particularly as EUR/GBP has moved back closer to the level implied by cyclical fundamentals.

The bigger concern sits further ahead.

“On the former, after some question marks around funding propositions in week one, fiscal news in the second week of the Burnham government has been comparatively light,” Goldman said.

“We suspect this largely remains the case until closer to the Autumn Budget.”

That relative calm may not last. Goldman expects fiscal concerns to return once the Budget approaches, with renewed pressure likely if the government struggles to explain how new spending or tax measures will be funded.

“Many of the fundamental constraints to fiscal policy still [remain] in place,” the bank said, adding that another period of fiscal volatility would likely produce “short-lived but asymmetrically negative bouts of Sterling pressure”.

Near-Term GBP/USD Outlook: BoE Pricing Leaves Pound Sterling Exposed

The Bank of England is the second part of the story.

Goldman said its main takeaway from the latest MPC meeting was the “patient tone from the on-hold majority”, particularly from Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Lombardelli.

The bank’s economists have “reiterated their no-hike baseline”, while market pricing through to year-end has moved further above Goldman’s own forecast than in any other G10 market.

“We see [this] as a likely source of downside Sterling pressure in the months ahead,” Goldman said.

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The latest bank consensus range shows a wide spread of GBP/USD forecasts, with the current rate near the middle of the third-quarter distribution.

In our view, the main risk is not an immediate collapse in Sterling, but a slower repricing as markets pare back expectations for tighter UK policy and refocus on the autumn fiscal outlook.

Goldman’s 1.28 target sits below the current bank consensus median and would represent a fall of roughly 5% from current levels.

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.