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8 11, 2024

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Drifts a Bit in Early Trading on Thursday

By |2024-11-08T07:36:21+02:00November 8, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

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8 11, 2024

Eyes Upside Amid Noise (Video)

By |2024-11-08T03:34:06+02:00November 8, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The Canadian dollar has rallied rather significantly against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Wednesday as we are now above the 110.50 yen level.
  • That being said, there is a lot of noise between here and the 112 yen level and therefore I think it will be a bit choppy and noisy on the way to the upside.
  • I do not think tis will be an easy move higher, but I am looking for it to happen at this point in time.

Keep in mind that employment numbers out of Canada on Friday will have a major influence on what happens next. So, it could be even noisier than you would expect. Short-term pullbacks I think are buying opportunities with the 109 yen level underneath being massive support based upon previous resistance and of course, previous support. “Market memory” should continue to play a part here, and at this point, I think you have a situation where we are simply going to bounce around, but in a somewhat positive way in the near term.

Moving Averages

The 200 day EMA is sitting above there, but the 50 day EMA sits right around the 109 yen level. In general, keep in mind that if the Canadian dollar continues to rally against the Japanese yen, it will be more of a risk on type of move as the Japanese yen is considered to be a major safety currency.

The Canadian dollar is highly influenced by crude oil, but in general, the interest rate differential in Canada being so much stronger than Japan is a major reason why this CAD/JPY pair has been going higher for a while. Buying dips will more likely than not be the way that I trade this market at least until we break down below the 50-day EMA when I might consider shorting. Longer term I think we probably go looking toward the 118 yen level but that would take serious time.

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7 11, 2024

Yen Hits 14-Week Low (Chart)

By |2024-11-07T23:32:12+02:00November 7, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The Japanese yen has fallen below 154.60 yen against the US dollar, reaching a 14-week low.
  • This decline comes amid a strengthening dollar and US Treasury yields after former President Donald Trump made an early lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the US presidential race.
  • The results have largely unfolded as expected, with the outcome now hinging on seven key swing states.
  • Domestically, minutes from the latest Bank of Japan meeting revealed that board members broadly agreed to continue raising interest rates, as inflation and economic conditions align with the central bank’s objectives.

However, they also noted that global economic uncertainty and volatility in financial markets are likely to influence future policy decisions. Meanwhile, a private survey showed sentiment among Japanese manufacturers weakened in November, driven by concerns over weak Chinese demand and persistent inflationary pressures.

According to stock trading platforms., US stocks hit all-time highs. According to trading, the three major US indices rose to record highs on Wednesday as Donald Trump secured the 2024 presidential race, defeating Kamala Harris. At the same time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 2.4%, the Nasdaq advanced 2.8%. similarly, the Dow Jones rose more than 1,400 points, or 3.4%, recording its best day since 2022. Optimism about a second Trump administration is driving investor sentiment, with expectations of pro-business policies such as tax cuts, deregulation and tariffs expected to boost economic growth and corporate profits.

According to trading, the leading gains were sectors that are ready to benefit from Trump’s policies, including the financial, energy and industrial sectors. Bank stocks such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo jumped more than 10% to record highs. Likewise, Nvidia shares rose more than 4% and Tesla shares jumped 14%. In contrast, real estate, consumer staples and utilities shares declined, with ProLogis down 1%, American Tower Corp down more than 7% and Walmart down 1%.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

The overall upward trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is gaining strength, and Trump’s victory will bolster the bulls to achieve more. Technically, the upward movement may continue until there are Japanese signals to intervene in the foreign exchange market to prevent further currency depreciation. Especially, under Trump’s leadership, which opposes currency devaluation. Currently, the nearest resistance levels for the trend are 154.85 and 156.00, respectively.

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7 11, 2024

Falls Most Since 2020 (Chart)

By |2024-11-07T21:31:06+02:00November 7, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The EUR/USD exchange rate remained in focus following reports that former US President Donald Trump is set to return to the White House.
  • Trump’s gains, particularly in key states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, have heightened investor interest in the US dollar, which posted its biggest one-day gain since March 2020, rising 1.5% against other major currencies.

On the other hand, the euro was the hardest hit among G10 currencies. It had fallen 1.75% against the US dollar to $1.0740 as of 8 a.m. CET, putting it on track for its worst day since March 2020. At 11:18 a.m. CET on Wednesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate showed a slight recovery to 1.0749 on Wednesday after falling to a four-month low of around 1.0682.

Dollar Rises on Expectations of Trump’s Tariff-Heavy Policies

Forex analyst Kyle Chapman of Ballinger Group attributed the dollar’s ​​rise to the market’s positioning for potential Trump-led policies. “The US dollar rocketed across the board in its best day in four years,” Chapman noted. He stressed that Trump’s expected economic approach, which includes inflationary pressures and tariffs, is a key factor. With the New York Times estimating a Trump win chance at more than 95%, financial markets appear to be pricing in the former president’s impact on US trade and economic direction. Chapman’s comments underscore market expectations of a more protective US trade stance, which could impact global trade dynamics.

Many believe that a Trump win could mean an extension of his trade policies in his first term, potentially affecting a wider range of US trading partners, not just China. This expectation is driving the dollar’s ​​strength as investors seek refuge in the US currency, which is now seen as more resilient under Trump.

Euro weakens amid fears of US trade restrictions

The euro has been hit hard by these developments, remaining the weakest among G10 currencies. Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank, explained that Trump’s restrictive trade policies are expected to disproportionately impact the eurozone. He noted that “the eurozone is likely to suffer disproportionately from a restrictive US trade policy,” stressing that export-dependent European economies, especially Germany, will face challenges in maintaining growth. Germany’s reliance on exports has been a key component of the eurozone’s economic strength, but a US shift away from open trade flows could upend this dynamic, threatening to exacerbate the eurozone’s growth shortfall. Such a scenario could deepen the euro’s struggles in the coming months, especially if US tariffs are imposed or trade routes are disrupted.

Analysts warn of long-term pressure on EUR/USD:

As analysts see further downside for the euro in the near term, ING FX analyst Chris Turner suggested a tough future for EUR/USD under Trump’s trade policies. He said, “This would be the worst-case scenario for EUR/USD – facing renewed trade wars but without the boost to global growth that extended US tax cuts could provide,”. They expect that if this trend continues, the EUR/USD pair could fall below parity by late 2025.

EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:

Currently, the euro price is facing pressure in the near term, with analysts expecting further declines if Trump’s path to the White House remains clear. While some market pricing has already priced in a potential Trump victory, there is a consensus that the EUR/USD pair could approach the 1.0550/1.0600 range in the coming days if the dollar price continues to strengthen. Especially, in light of the limited support from the eurozone for growth under these conditions.

Technically, the euro price is heading for its worst day since March 2020 as Trump’s victory in the US presidential election strengthened the dollar. Obviously, a Trump victory poses significant risks to the European economy. Especially, with potential tariffs on key sectors such as cars and chemicals, along with concerns over security and support for Ukraine.

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7 11, 2024

GBP/USD Recovering Post-election Result Losses

By |2024-11-07T19:30:34+02:00November 7, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Above: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivers a post-MPC press conference in November. Image courtesy of the Bank of England, reproduced under CC licensing conditions.


Pound Sterling is stabilising against the Dollar, with the worst post-election predictions failing to materialise. Traders now have the Bank of England and Federal Reserve to contend with.

Another busy day awaits Dollar traders, with the Bank of England and Federal Reserve both likely to cut interest rates and address recent political developments.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slumped by 1.25% on the day it was announced Donald Trump had won the Presidential election and his Republican Party was 90% likely to take full control of Congress.

As the impact of the outcome – which markets weren’t quite prepared for (a red sweep had an approximate 30% probability) – is digested, the losses have faded.



At the time of writing Thursday, GBP/USD is back above 1.29 at 1.2935. The stabilisation means key support lines around 1.2813 have been defended, and a bigger post-election rout might have been avoided.

The market was swift to react to Trump’s strong showing, but the lack of follow through confirms markets are entering a new phase.

“In reflection of the huge range of uncertainties, the USD’s rally is already showing signs of fatigue,” says Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank. “Overall, it is to too early to draw strong conclusions on the impact of Trump’s policies and this is resulting in a reluctance by investors to extend the USD’s rally for the time being.”


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We know what Trump wants to do, but we don’t know what he will do. He is notoriously unpredictable, a trait that he uses to his advantage on the global stage.

Economists observe Trump will want to negotiate on matters of trade, which means the worst-case scenarios that he threatened during the campaign might yet be avoided. These include a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods.

Markets will be alert to developments regarding the new administration and its prospective policies in the coming days, so we wouldn’t say the dollar’s ascent has ended just yet as it will be sensitive to headlines.



The next question for the Pound is how does the Bank of England react to recent events?

Interest rates will be cut by 25 basis points, as has been expected for some time. However, the Bank will need to decide whether to cut them again in December.

The new economic forecasts, which the Bank uses to guide market expectations, will provide some answers.

There will be some degree of uncertainty as to whether last week’s budget decisions have been fully incorporated into the forecasts. In particular, we know growth will likely rise near term as the government’s borrowing and spending spree juices the economy.

This will give reason for the Bank to strike a tone of caution, which can underpin the Pound.

The Office for Budget Responsibility released its forecasts alongside the budget last week, and these should offer some guidelines for what to expect from the Bank.

The OBR raised its inflation expectations, which, if repeated by the Bank, would amount to a ‘hawkish’ development for the Pound. It also raised growth projections for next year, although forecasts for the medium-term (through to 2029) were downgraded.

The tone of the Bank’s guidance and Governor Bailey’s post-decision interview will also be important for the Pound.

Expect Bailey to field questions about rising borrowing costs following the budget and Donald Trump’s victory yesterday.


Above: UK ten-year bond yields have surged.


The Bank will have to be particularly cautious in this febrile environment, and loose lips could see the Pound punished.

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but again, the more pertinent question for markets is what happens in December and in 2025.

Already, we have seen expectations for a December rate cut recede, while a number of investment banks have cut their forecasts for the amount of easing to follow in 2025.

This is because they think a Trump administration offers inflationary policies, including tariffs and tax cuts.

With inflation still above the 2.0% target, the Fed must proceed cautiously.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January, assuming a half-point cut this year, has declined from 69% a month ago to 32% today.

Economists at Nomura now expect just one Fed cut in 2025, with policy on hold until the realised inflation shock from tariffs has passed.

“We expect Trump to follow through on his campaign proposals to raise tariffs, leading to a significant near-term boost to inflation and modestly lower growth,” says David Seif, an economist at Nomura. “We expect some additional easing in 2026 but have raised our terminal rate forecast to 3.625% from 3.125%.”

Wells Fargo economists say they are reassessing their forecasts for the Federal Reserve’s base rate in the wake of the election.

“The FOMC’s reaction function likely would be more hawkish in response to higher inflation from tax cuts than from tariffs. Tighter monetary policy is an effective method for slowing demand growth, but it cannot do much to combat inflationary pressure from a supply shock such as tariffs,” says Wells Fargo economist Jay Bryson.

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7 11, 2024

EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Finds Footing After Trump Trade Decline

By |2024-11-07T17:30:07+02:00November 7, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The dollar had a strong bullish day on Wednesday after Trump won the election.
  • Market participants prepare for a rate cut during the FOMC policy meeting.
  • The US reported an addition of 12.000 jobs in October.

The EUR/USD outlook shows a rebound in the euro after reaching new lows due to Wednesday’s Trump trade. Market participants paused the recent move ahead of the FOMC policy meeting, where the Fed will likely lower borrowing costs. 

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The dollar had a strong bullish day on Wednesday after Trump won the election to become the US president again. The Trump trade resumed enthusiastically as markets looked forward to tax cuts and tariffs on imported goods. At the same time, a Trump presidency will likely complicate the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle. After the results, traders lowered the likelihood of a rate cut in December from 77%  to 67%. 

Meanwhile, market participants are preparing for a rate cut during the FOMC policy meeting later today. Although the US central bank will likely cut rates, it will be by a smaller size than traders had expected a few weeks ago. The Fed started its rate-cutting cycle with a super-sized rate cut, which increased expectations of another such move in November. However, economic resilience has changed this outlook. 

Nevertheless, the latest jobs report revealed unexpected weakness in the labor market that might scare policymakers. Economists had expected slower job growth due to recent hurricanes. However, an addition of 12.000 jobs was far below estimates. A dovish tone during the meeting will increase the likelihood of a rate cut in December. On the other hand, if policymakers demonstrate caution, rate-cut bets will fall, further boosting the greenback. 

EUR/USD key events today

  • Unemployment Claims
  • Federal Funds Rate
  • FOMC Statement
  • FOMC Press Conference

EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears take charge after evening star pattern 

EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Finds Footing After Trump Trade Decline
EUR/USD technical outlook

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused its decline near the 1.0700 key psychological level. It trades far below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades near the oversold region, suggesting strong bearish momentum. 

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Initially, bulls had reversed the trend by breaching the 30-SMA and making higher highs and lows. However, they failed to sustain a move beyond the 1.0900 resistance. Here, bears took charge with the price making a strong evening star pattern that broke below the SMA. Given the solid bearish bias, the downtrend might soon resume with a break below 1.0700.

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7 11, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis Today 07/11: Strong Selling Pressure -Chart

By |2024-11-07T15:27:39+02:00November 7, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The pound fell more than 1%, falling below $1.29, as the stronger dollar gained momentum after early US election results suggested a higher probability of a Donald Trump victory.
  • Recently, the GBP/USD losses has extended to the 1.2834 support level; the pair’s two-month low.

Overall, the result has revived “Trump deals,” with expectations that the former US president’s plans to raise tariffs and cut corporate taxes could fuel inflation and keep interest rates high. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday. However, investors now expect smaller rate cuts next year than expected before last week’s budget announcement. Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility recently raised its 2025 inflation forecast to an average of 2.6%, up from 1.5% forecast in March. This is closely in line with the Bank of England’s August forecast, which sees inflation at 2.4% in one year, 1.7% in two years and 1.5% in three years.

On another note, UK gilt yields, or government bond yields, a key tool in determining consumer borrowing rates such as mortgages, continue to rise as Donald Trump’s election victory provides fresh impetus. Analyst said, “Financial markets have been gripped by jitters following Donald Trump’s triumphant victory. His policies appear set to add to inflationary pressures and further widen the US deficit, with knock-on effects for the UK economy expected,”

According to reliable trading platforms, the yield (interest rate) offered by two-year UK government bonds rose to 4.51%, while the yield on ten-year bonds rose to 4.57%. added, “Government bonds often move in tandem with Treasury bonds and this special relationship is evident today, pushing up UK borrowing costs sharply.”

UK government bonds were already on edge, with sentiment worsening after concerns about the amount of borrowing the Labour administration was undertaking. “Now Trump’s victory has added to the pressure. Concerns about the inflationary impact of Trump’s promised new round of tariffs are seeping through markets. There are also concerns that his trade policies could hamper UK economic growth. Fears of an emerging stagflation scenario in some economies appear to be haunting markets again.”

By and large, the interest rates that consumers in the UK are exposed to are determined by bond yields as they form a basket of products such as swaps, which in turn influence mortgage rates, credit card rates and lending rates to businesses. US bond yields are rising as investors demand more compensation for holding US bonds, believing their value will fall due to inflation. Meanwhile, Rising yields therefore suggest that markets believe a second Trump term will be more inflationary than the alternative.

Faced with the prospect of higher inflation, economists now expect fewer rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to the technical outlook and performance on the daily chart attached, the general downward trend for the GBP/USD pair is getting stronger. As I mentioned before, stability below the 1.3000 level will strengthen the bears’ control, and the next most important support stations are 1.2880, 1.2800, and 1.2720, respectively. From the last level, the technical indicators will move towards strong oversold levels. On the other hand, and in the same time frame, there will be no initial break of the downward trend without moving above the 1.3150 resistance. Also, the GBP/USD pair will be affected today by the announcement of the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, in addition to the reaction to the results of the US presidential elections and Trump’s victory.

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7 11, 2024

USD/JPY Analysis Today – 7/11: Highs at Risk (Chart)

By |2024-11-07T13:26:56+02:00November 7, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The USD/JPY traded at a high early this morning not seen since the end of July, a collision of nervous sentiment and risk events has led to the bullish climb in the currency pair, today there is the Fed.

  • Traders who have the emotional fortitude to participate in the Forex markets and still have a taste for adventure have another day of rather volatile speculation awaiting.
  • The USD/JPY traded near a high around 154.720 early this morning, the last time this vicinity in the currency pair had been seen was on the 30th of July. The problem facing, or puzzle challenging, retail traders now is that in July a large bearish trend was in the midst of developing.
  • Now the USD/JPY is suffering from a bullish trajectory seen since the end of September, and this is where it get interesting regarding potential perspectives. At the time of this writing the USD/JPY is near 154.200 level.

Yes, the USD/JPY touched the 139.700 level on the 16th of September, this as financial institutions bet on a more hawkish Bank of Japan and a more dovish U.S Federal Reserve. The lows seen in mid-September did reverse higher and by the end of September the price in the USD/JPY was around 141.700. Then global risk adverse trading began in earnest and USD centric strength took over, this morning high underscores the nervousness and risk events in Forex and for the USD/JPY. The currency pair has traded in a rather correlated manner along with other major pairs like the EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Speculative Intrigue and Confusion for the Near-Term

The U.S President election delivered a demonstrative bit of evidence yesterday. The victory of Donald Trump opens the door to the potential of tough negotiations regarding trade agreements with many nations which will cause Forex prices to potentially become volatile. Fast trading in the USD/JPY will remain part of the landscape today.

Japan however for the moment appears to be in a rather calm spot regarding trade with the U.S, in other words for the time being it appears Japan will not grab the attention of Trump as he deals with other Asian nations like China for instance. Perhaps financial institutions will become more tranquil regarding the USD/JPY.

The U.S Federal Reserve and USD/JPY

On top of the Trump consideration and his impact on policy, the U.S Federal Reserve will announce it FOMC Statement later today. The Fed is in a position to cut its interest rate today by at lease 0.25 basis points. U.S economic data last week via GDP and jobs numbers came in below estimates. While most have been worrying about the U.S election, the Fed will grab the spotlight today and their rhetoric will impact the USD/JPY. However, in the short-term may remain quite choppy as financial institutions readjust their outlooks. Yes, the USD/JPY does look overbought, but do not bet blindly on lower move.

While some traders expected a Trump victory, the scope of his victory opens the door for policy changes which could impact the USD and mid-term outlook.
Many of those impacts still need to be thought out. The USD/JPY does look overbought, but nervous sentiment may continue to keep the currency pair within its higher elements for a bit longer.
Those who want to try and sell may want to use resistance levels technically as a place to launch quick hitting attacks.
However the Fed later today will create a sea of volatility, because the Fed has a new U.S President to deal with too.

USD/JPY Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 154.175

Current Support: 153.990

High Target: 154.340

Low Target: 152.800

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7 11, 2024

Euro rebounds as investors gear up for Fed policy announcements

By |2024-11-07T11:26:04+02:00November 7, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • EUR/USD edges higher toward 1.0800 in the European session on Thursday.
  • The Fed is expected to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points.
  • Investors will pay close attention to Chairman Powell’s comments on the policy outlook after Trump victory.

EUR/USD lost nearly 2% on Wednesday and touched its weakest level since late June below 1.0700. The pair stages a rebound early Thursday and trades above 1.0750 as market attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcements.

Euro PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.71% -0.11% 1.12% -0.28% -1.01% -0.22% 0.82%
EUR -0.71%   -0.86% -0.02% -1.38% -1.42% -1.32% -0.30%
GBP 0.11% 0.86%   0.58% -0.53% -0.56% -0.46% 0.57%
JPY -1.12% 0.02% -0.58%   -1.39% -1.57% -1.13% -0.00%
CAD 0.28% 1.38% 0.53% 1.39%   -0.52% 0.05% 1.10%
AUD 1.01% 1.42% 0.56% 1.57% 0.52%   0.10% 1.13%
NZD 0.22% 1.32% 0.46% 1.13% -0.05% -0.10%   1.03%
CHF -0.82% 0.30% -0.57% 0.00% -1.10% -1.13% -1.03%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The US Dollar (USD) rallied on Wednesday as Donald Trump won the presidential election by a decisive margin. Republicans also took the majority in the Senate and remain on track to capture the House, currently holding 206 seats of 218 needed for majority, against Democrats’ 191. The USD Index, which tracks the USD’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose more than 1.5% to register its largest one-day gain of 2024.

Early Thursday, the USD Index retreats and was last seen losing nearly 0.4% on the day, possibly pressured by profit-taking.

The Fed is widely forecast to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) after the November policy meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will surely be asked about how Trump’s proposed policies, especially in regard to taxes and tariffs, could impact the policy moving forward. Powell is unlikely to respond to these questions and reiterate the data-dependent approach to policymaking.

In case Powell reaffirms that they are likely to lower the policy rate again at the last policy meeting of the year, the immediate market reaction could cause the USD to weaken further and help EUR/USD stretch higher. If Powell adopts a more cautious tone and voices concerns over the inflation outlook, the USD could hold its ground. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 30% probability of the Fed holding the policy rate steady in December, suggesting that the USD is likely to react more significantly to a hawkish Fed tone than a dovish one.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays near 40, suggesting that the near-term technical outlook remains bearish while EUR/USD stays in a correction phase.

On the upside, 1.0800 (static level) aligns as first resistance before 1.0830 and 1.0870, where the 20-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are located, respectively. Looking south, first support could be spotted at 1.0700 (static level)  before 1.0680 (static level) and 1.0600 (static level).

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

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7 11, 2024

AUD/JPY Forecast Today 06/11: Holds Steady (Video)

By |2024-11-07T01:20:25+02:00November 7, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The Aussie dollar rallied in the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to see consolidation between the 99.50 yen level below and the 101.50 yen level above.
  • In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of questions asked about risk appetite, but it’s worth noting that overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia chose to keep its interest rates level.
  • So with that, I think there was a little bit of a relief rally in the Australian dollar.

Now, the question is, will risk appetite benefit the Aussie or will people run to the Japanese yen? A move above the 101.50 yen level, I believe, unless it’s a huge move to the upside, perhaps all the way back to the 109 yen level for some time. This is a market that will continue to be noisy, but at this point in time – I suppose that I favor the upside in general.

A Break Down Coming?

If we were to turn around and break down below the 99.50 yen level, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 98.50 yen level, maybe even lower. In general, the interest rate differential between the two countries continues to favor Australia and probably will for the foreseeable future. So, I do think you have a situation where SWAP continues to favor the Aussie. So therefore, carry traders will continue to favor the upside. I have no interest in shorting this pair, at least not at the moment, but we’ll have to wait and see. With the US elections and the inability of Americans to have an election in a 24 hour period, it’s possible that we see a lot of volatility over the next couple of days. Because of this, you need to be cautious about position sizing, as this could be very disruptive over the next few sessions. On its face, this is a market that is looking to determine where it wants to go overall.

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