Created on November 06, 2024

Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

The final poll by Five Thirty-Eight shows Harris at 48% and Trump at 46.8%, indicating a statistical tie. Betting markets have seen Trump’s lead over Harris shrink over the past ten days, with PredictIt showing a near-even race on election day. Trump was previously the Favorite in October, strengthening the dollar. However, as the race tightened, the dollar has traded below recent highs.

Markets continue to unwind “Trump trades” on the back of the latest Des Moines Register US election poll, which gives Harris a lead over Trump in Iowa. “Trump trade” are in the dollar’s ​​favour given the higher inflationary implications associated with the former president’s policies of tariffs and tax cuts. In general, uncertainty about the outcome is likely to prevent financial markets from making a big move, and we may see some movement tonight as the first results start to come in. If the initial results show that Trump does well, we expect the GBP/USD exchange rate to fall below 1.30, as the move accelerates towards any confirmation of his victory.

Commenting on the event and the outlook, Robert Thompson, chief economist at IBOSS, said: “If Trump wins, the market reaction will be more ambiguous. A Trump victory is likely to strengthen the US dollar and push up government bond yields because his plans to raise tariffs sharply would boost inflation and reduce the Fed’s willingness to cut interest rates.”

In terms of the pound, we expect pairs like GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD to also rise on such an outcome as investors start to worry about US-China relations, which has implications for the Australian currencies. According to analysts at Société Générale: “The Australian dollar is already trading at a discount due to concerns about the impact of a Trump victory on China.” The impact of a Trump victory on GBP/EUR will be more contained, and the pair could rise, especially if we see a rally in the stock market.

The question for the euro is whether Trump pushes for trade tariffs on the eurozone, which could impact EUR/USD more than GBP/USD, meaning the GBP/EUR exchange rate could rise.

Citibank warns that if early results suggest Harris performs better than expected, there could be a panic unwinding of long US dollar positions (tariff positions such as the US dollar versus the euro, the Chinese yuan, the Mexican peso and the Korean won). Also, equity markets will do well here as uncertainty fades and “business as usual” returns to calm fears, boosting currencies such as the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the euro. Furthermore, we could see GBP/EUR come under pressure as the euro shows relief that the eurozone will not face a potential tariff war with the US.

Furthermore, financial markets would react negatively, with the U.S. dollar gaining and risk-sensitive currencies under pressure. GBP/EUR could also be negatively impacted, potentially falling below 1.19.

In the same vein, Citibank’s pre-election analysis says that vote counting will be faster than in 2020 but counting in a few larger counties could continue later in the week. Pennsylvania polls close at 20:00 EST, with Nevada being the last to close among the swing states. Analysts expect results for Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin to be released overnight, but may need to wait until the following day for Arizona and Pennsylvania, given historical timing and election processing rules.

Citibank adds that some early market action could focus on some key county vote results that could provide a glimpse into broader trends. Expect volatility to increase when these deals start to appear.

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Created on November 06, 2024

According to stock trading platforms, Wall Street indices are booming on Election Day. US stocks rose on Election Day as investors awaited the outcome of the tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The S&P 500 rose 1%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.3% and the Dow Jones rose about 400 points. All sectors were in the green, with consumer discretionary, industrials and technology leading the gains. Chipmakers outperformed, with Nvidia up 2.5%, Intel up 3.4% and Broadcom up 2.6%, driven by strong demand for AI data centres reflected in strong third-quarter earnings from Astera Labs on Monday. Major tech stocks also rose, including Meta (up 1.6%), Amazon (up 1.7%) and Tesla (up 4.8%). However, Boeing shares fell 2% as workers accepted a new Labor deal, ending a strike. Looking beyond the election, markets are focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Thursday, with traders widely expecting a 25-basis point rate cut. Furthermore, investors remain cautious about potential market volatility if the election results face delays or disputes.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

USD/JPY has been trending higher in the past few days, with higher lows connected by a bullish trend line that has held since late September. Technically, the price could be on the verge of testing this support area again soon. The Fibonacci retracement tool shows additional levels where buyers may be waiting. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 149.27 is near the trend line, then the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 147.81 is near the dynamic support of the 200 SMA. The ascending retracement line could be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 146.35, as a break below this level could signal the start of a reversal.

Meanwhile, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that the stronger resistance path is upwards or that support is likely to hold rather than break. Clearly, the gap between the indicators appears to be widening to reflect strong upward pressures. If any of these indicators hold as support, USD/JPY could resume its climb to the high of 154.00 or higher. Stochastic is already rising from oversold territory to signal a revival of bullish pressures, and the oscillator has plenty of room to run before hitting overbought territory to signal exhaustion. The RSI has some room to slide before hitting oversold territory to signal exhaustion, so the correction may continue until that happens.

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November 6, 2024 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Rate Jumps on President Trump Win, USD Rallies, EUR Pressured

US Ddollar gains to some extent.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped to just below 1.2850 before regaining the 1.2900 level.

The Euro has been hit harder than the Pound due to fears over a more aggressive trade policy and damage to the Euro-Zone economy.

In this context, the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate has strengthened to 1.2000.

According to ING; “Given the UK economy’s smaller exposure to trade than the eurozone and some recently announced fiscal stimulus in the UK, EUR/GBP looks likely to press support at 0.8300 and looks biased to 0.8200 now.”

This would represent gains to 1.22 for GBP/EUR.

Former President Trump has secured re-election with victory in at least six of the key battleground states and is also on course to win the popular vote.

The Republicans will also gain control of the Senate while the House outcome is still uncertain.

Control of the House will be very important for the US agenda.

In this context, ING considers that the House result will be very important for all asset classes.

ING commented; “with the Senate already been called for the Republicans, the base case for financial markets is currently a red clean sweep. Still, the House race remains a very close one, and the Congress split is likely to have deep implications for risk sentiment and the dollar.”

According to MUFG; “Of course there are different kinds of clean sweeps and only a marginal majority could be seen as a potential curtailment of some of Trump’s fiscal policies with the potential for moderate Republicans to block big spending policies.”

MUFG commented; “We indicated in our FX Outlook in October and November that a Trump victory would lead to a potential 7-8% stronger US dollar relative to the forecasts if Harris won.”

It expects EUR/USD will trade below 1.05, undermining GBP/USD support.

Markets will be looking at the European context, especially given expectations of a tougher trade policy from a second Trump administration.

Commerzbank also expects the single currency to come under pressure; “The euro area is likely to suffer disproportionately from a restrictive US trade policy. Not only because of its direct exports to the US. Should the US not remain the ultimate sink of global trade flows (or only in terms of trade that are more favorable for the US than before), global trade as a whole may suffer. This will affect the export nations. And quite a few of them are in the euro area. Germany, for example.”

Danske Bank expects the economy will be a near-term focus; “Regardless of the final election outcome, economic fundamentals will likely resume as the primary market driver until there is greater clarity on the winner’s policies, particularly regarding trade and fiscal policy.”

Foreign Exchange Rate Winners and Losers:

Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1995 (+0.56%)
Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.28936 (-1.14%)
Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is 1.07491 (-1.69%)

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

• Voting reveals that Trump will be the next US president.

• Data on Friday revealed a poor performance in the US labor market.

• The Bank of England will likely cut rates by 25-bps on Thursday.

The GBP/USD forecast turned to the downside after news outlets reported that Republican candidate Donald Trump won the election. Meanwhile, market participants prepared for a rate cut at the Bank of England policy meeting.

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Voting in the US on Wednesday revealed that Trump was in the lead and would likely become the next president. After weeks of speculation, market participants are more convinced that Trump’s policies will increase inflation. Therefore, the Fed might have a difficult time finishing its rate-cutting cycle. 

After the election, the market focus will return to the state of the US economy and the FOMC policy meeting. Data on Friday revealed a poor performance in the US labor market. The US economy added just 12,000 new jobs in October, well below estimates of 106,000 additional jobs. However, the impact on the dollar was minimal because the unemployment rate remained steady. At the same time, experts noted that the slow job growth was due to disruptions caused by hurricanes.

Nevertheless, the report might shape the tone during the FOMC policy meeting. Before the data, policymakers had assumed a more hawkish tone, with some expecting the central bank to pause in December. If this tone remains, the dollar will rise. On the other hand, if the Fed signals another rate cut this year, the greenback will collapse.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England will likely cut rates by 25-bps on Thursday. This outlook follows recent figures showing inflation at 1.7%, below the central bank’s targets. However, most economists believe this might be the last rate cut for the year.

GBP/USD key events today

Market participants will keep digesting the US election results as there are no other high-impact reports.

GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls give up control above 1.3000

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has collapsed after failing to sustain a move above the 1.3000 key psychological level. Bulls had attempted to take charge. However, sentiment suddenly shifted when the price made a bearish engulfing pattern. 

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A break below the 22-SMA has allowed bears to retest the 1.2850 support level. If bears maintain enthusiasm and the RSI stays below 50, the price will make a new low below 1.2850, continuing the previous downtrend. 

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GBP/USD is trading lower at $1.28738, down 1.27% amid dollar strength. The pair is below the pivot point at $1.28917, signaling a bearish bias in the short term.

Immediate support lies at $1.28464, and a break below this could push GBP/USD toward $1.28135 and potentially $1.27792 if the selling pressure intensifies.

On the upside, resistance is at $1.29197, followed by $1.29518. However, with the 50-day EMA at $1.29620 and the 200-day EMA at $1.29975, strong overhead resistance suggests limited room for recovery unless these levels are breached.

For now, staying below $1.28917 keeps the bearish outlook intact, as the stronger dollar weighs on the pound.

Euro Weakens Amid Mixed Data, Lagarde’s Speech Looms

The euro faced mixed influences on Tuesday with French industrial production falling by -0.9%, missing expectations of -0.5%, while the government budget deficit widened to -173.8 billion euros. Spanish unemployment rose by 26.8K, slightly higher than forecast.

Looking ahead, German factory orders are expected to show a recovery with 4.2% growth, and ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to speak, potentially impacting the euro’s short-term outlook.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

Above: The Republicans have the Senate

Pound Sterling fell sharply as results from the U.S. election suggested Donald Trump and his Republican Party were on course for victory.

The all-important key swing state of Pennsylvania has been called for Donald Trump, assuring his path to the White House.

CNN has called Pennsylvania for Donald Trump after Fox News made the same call. It effectively means that the Republican candidate has won the 2024 presidential election and puts the White House out of reach for Kamala Harris.

Trump’s win comes alongside a Republican win in the Senate, and they are anticipated to retain the House of Representatives easily.

This means the ‘red sweep’ outcome – the most USD-bullish outcome – has come to pass.

Trump’s pro-tariff and low-tax agenda will now be unfettered by opposition.

Trump’s agenda of tariffs and tax cuts is inflationary, which will lower the tempo of future interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve, which is bullish for the Dollar.

“The US dollar is trading higher against almost every currency in the world overnight on the news of the big outperformance in the polls from Donald Trump. Not only are markets positioning themselves for a comfortable Trump victory in the electoral college, but the prospect of a Republican controlled Congress, which is key in determining the ability of the incoming president to force policy changes through the US government,” says Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at Ebury.

His pro-growth agenda (which will involve a significant rise in the USA’s debt) will also boost the ‘American exceptionalism’ trade, in which global investors buy all things American, including its currency.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate fell to 1.2850 after Trump won the important swing state of Georgia and it was confirmed the Republicans had taken the Senate.

The red sweep outcome was considered by analysts to be the most bullish outcome for the Dollar, with some saying the currency could ascend by approximately 5%.

“I think in terms of outcomes tonight, I would expect GBP to be challenging 1.26 should Trump get announced,” said a trader at JP Morgan.

“The currency market has realised its previously indicated tendency: it firmly believes that the Trump presidency will be USD-positive,” says Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank.

Created on November 05, 2024

• The EUR/USD exchange rate has settled just below 1.09 ahead of the all-important US presidential vote, but a Donald Trump victory would spark major selling pressure on the currency pair once again.
• By Wednesday, the outcome of the vote should be known, and if Trump wins, we expect EUR/USD to approach 1.0760 before the end of the week.
• However, a Harris win, which was seen as increasingly likely over the weekend, would extend the euro’s rally.
• Moreover, the euro starts this important week with a small gain against the US dollar as markets track the lower odds of a Trump win. A number of polls released over the weekend were more favourable for Harris, with one even suggesting she would pull off a surprise win in Iowa.

Overall, the decline in the odds in Trump’s favor would better reflect the uncertainty in the polls, with the margin of error still pointing to a 50/50 tie. The US dollar closely tracks the odds in the odds, having declared the winner 80% of the time in the past 35 years, rising when Trump’s odds are high and falling when his odds are low.

This speaks to the dollar-supportive policy mix proposed by Trump, which includes inflationary tariffs on imports. Accordingly, analysts at TD Securities say that a second Trump presidency would spark a major rally for the US dollar. “This would bring back memories of US exceptionalism, supported by tariffs, tax cuts (the red wave), deregulation and negative impacts on global growth prospects. A Harris presidency would bring some weakness to the US dollar as the Trump risk premium unwinds and a blue wave exacerbates the US dollar’s ​​decline,” the analysts said.

If Harris wins, the euro against the US dollar could extend its recovery to the 1.10 level. Valentin Marinov, an analyst at Credit Agricole, said: “The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs could fall to their lowest levels since the first quarter of 2012 or head lower in response to a Trump victory accompanied by a “red wave” in the US Congress. Conversely, their rise could be limited to 1.10 and 1.33 in the event of a Harris victory and a divided US Congress.”

According to stock trading platforms, US stock futures stabilize ahead of the presidential election. According to trading, US stock futures stabilized on Tuesday as investors prepared for the disputed US presidential election. Recent polls indicate a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with markets also focusing on which party will control Congress, as a potential victory could lead to major shifts in spending and tax policies.

Investors are also awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week, when it is widely expected to cut interest rates by a more cautious 25 basis points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.61% on Monday, the S&P 500 fell 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.33%. Notable declines came from major technology stocks, including Tesla (-2.5%), Amazon (-1.1%) and Meta Platforms (-1.1%). In after-hours trading, Palantir Technologies surged more than 13% after posting strong quarterly results and an upbeat revenue outlook. Meanwhile, NXP Semiconductor shares fell about 6% after issuing a weak outlook, pointing to broader concerns about the macro economy.

EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:

Technically, the EUR/USD may remain in its current bearish range until markets and investors react to the U.S. presidential election results and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. Approaching the psychological support level at 1.0800 would reinforce bearish control, signalling a deeper downward move. Furthermore, a Trump victory could push the EUR/USD down to the 1.0660 support level as an initial target.

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Created on November 05, 2024

Potential signal:

I’m a buyer of this pair and have no interest in selling it. There are 2 scenarios that I see offering an entry into this pair. If we pull back to the ¥195 level, I’m a buyer. I would have a stop loss at the ¥192.50 level, and then would aim for a move to the ¥200 level. On the other hand, if we rally and break above the ¥200 level, then I would have a stop loss at the ¥198 level, and simply hang onto the pair for a move to the ¥206 level.

• In my daily analysis of the British pound against the Japanese yen, I noticed that we are in the midst of a major consolidation area.
• This of course isn’t surprising, because we do have an interest rate decision from the Bank of England this week, and that of course will have a major influence on where we go next.
• Nonetheless, I think we got a situation where the interest rate differential will continue to favor the British pound into the foreseeable future, so I still find this a market that I like to the upside.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for the GBP/JPY currency pair is somewhat neutral over the last couple of days, but I do see a significant amount of support near the ¥195 level, which is an area that has been noisy for some time. The 50 Day EMA is racing toward that area, and I think that is something that should be noted as it is a large indication of the overall trend. In other words, think that will be a lot of buyers there waiting to pick this market up, assuming that risk appetite doesn’t get eviscerated, nor does the Bank of England lose its mind somehow.

On the upside, I see the ¥200 level as a major barrier, but eventually we should break above it. Quite frankly, you get paid to hang on to this pair, much like my USD/JPY trade in my personal account, you can just simply hold onto it until something changes. I get paid at the end of every day to hold that trade, it would be just as comfortable with this one, although I’m the first to recognize that the Bank of England interest rate decision happening on Thursday isn’t the ideal problem to deal with.

At this point in time, I think you get a situation where it’s likely that any selloff will result in some type of buying opportunity, and that’s exactly how I would approach this market, given the chance. Between now and then, it’s just simply a matter of collecting swaps.

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Created on November 05, 2024

• At the start of trading this week, the GBP/USD exchange rate rose to 1.2998 before settling around 1.2950 at the time of writing this analysis.
• This comes as financial markets react to the increased probability of Kamala Harris winning the presidential election today, Tuesday.
• The odds of Trump winning in the overall betting market are now around 57%, below the high-water mark of 65% seen on October 30.

Furthermore, the US dollar generally tracks these odds closely, rising when Trump’s odds rise and falling when his odds fall. This speaks to the dollar-friendly policy mix proposed by Trump, which would include inflationary tariffs on imports. Several new polls released over the weekend were more favourable to Kamala Harris, with one even suggesting she would score a surprise win in Iowa.

The decline in the odds in Trump’s betting market would better reflect the uncertainty in the polls, with the margin of error still pointing to a 50/50 tie. Analysts said, “Recent polls suggest Harris has gained ground in swing states at the same time that Trump’s odds in the betting markets have continued to decline. Investors at Bull Market and Calci still see the former president as the front-runner. However, Predictit now has Harris winning the contest by a narrow margin,”.

Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

Overall, we could have a result by Wednesday, and a Trump win is widely expected to boost the US dollar, while a Harris win would have the opposite effect. Moreover, some analysts believe that a Harris win could send the GBP/USD back to the 1.33 resistance. According to Credit Agricole Bank’s forecast, “EUR/USD and GBP/USD could fall to their lowest levels in Q1 2024 or head lower in response to a Trump win accompanied by a ‘red wave’ in the US Congress. Conversely, they could be limited to 1.10 and 1.33 in the event of a Harris win and a divided US Congress.”

Analysts at TD Securities say that a second Trump presidency could spark a major rally for the US dollar. This would revive memories of US exceptionalism, fuelled by tariffs, tax cuts (on the red wave), deregulation and negative impacts on global growth prospects. Furthermore, a Harris presidency would therefore bring some weakness to the US dollar as the Trump risk premium unravels and the blue wave of the US dollar weakens.

For the pound, the big event locally this week is the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday, when it is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The cut in sterling has been “in the price” for a long time and is unlikely to have an impact on the market. However, guidance on the possibility of another cut in December will be important.

If the Bank of England leans towards a second consecutive cut, the GBP/EUR rate will come under pressure. However, last week’s budget reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut and the market is now pricing in a quarterly pace of UK rate cuts, which is relatively supportive of expectations. Sterling is therefore expected to react more clearly to any implied future guidance. Moreover, the correlation between foreign exchange yields and sterling has been broken since the budget and higher yields have not helped sterling. However, higher growth and inflation are expected to reduce the Bank of England’s dovishness and support the currency.

The window of opportunity for the Bank to cut UK interest rates has opened up after last week’s budget, where the government announced a large increase in spending that analysts say could give the economy a “strong boost” next year. Fiscal expansion is inflationary in nature, meaning the Bank will have to respond by keeping interest rates higher for longer. Indeed, the Office for Budget Responsibility raised its near-term growth and inflation forecasts after the Budget, and we will be watching the same for the Bank of England. Any upgrades to inflation and growth would therefore be a strong signal that the Bank of England acknowledges that it will have to maintain tighter monetary policy. Obviously, this would support sterling. Also, the biggest risk to sterling would be a scenario in which the Bank cuts interest rates and heads for another rate cut as early as December.

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Created on November 05, 2024

• Amid a neutral stance with a bullish bias, the USD/JPY currency pair may be influenced by signals from the US elections and the FOMC decision this week.
• The US elections are scheduled for November 5, and many say the results could come soon.
• A victory for former President Trump could mean a bullish mood for the stock market, which could also impact the prospects of Fed easing and thus lift the US dollar. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is holding steady around 152.50 at the time of writing.

Later in the week, the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to cut US interest rates by 0.25%, although some say it could hint at a pause in December. It is worth noting that the two non-farm payrolls report surprised markets with their rise, while the latest inflation figures reflected higher-than-expected price pressures, easing pressure on the central bank to stimulate the economy.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan’s decision appeared less dovish than usual last week, with Governor Ueda hinting that he may tighten monetary policy soon.

According to stock trading platforms, US stock futures settled on Tuesday as investors prepared for the disputed US presidential election. Recent polls indicate a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with markets also focusing on which party will control Congress, as a potential victory could lead to major shifts in spending and tax policies. Investors are also awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week, where it is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in a more cautious manner.

According to trading, the Dow Jones fell 0.61% on Monday, the S&P 500 fell 0.28%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.33%. Notable declines came from major tech stocks, including Tesla (-2.5%), Amazon (-1.1%), and Meta Platforms (-1.1%). In after-hours trading, Palantir Technologies rose more than 13% after strong quarterly results and upbeat earnings forecasts. Meanwhile, NXP Semiconductor shares fell about 6% after issuing a weak forecast, pointing to broader macroeconomic concerns.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

The USD/JPY recently broke through the 147.50-150.00 resistance levels and rallied to a high of 153.86 before retreating. Furthermore, using the Fibonacci tool, levels can be identified where more buyers might join the uptrend. The 100-day simple moving average is above the 200-day simple moving average, confirming that the path of least resistance is upward or that support is more likely to hold rather than break.

The 38.2% Fibonacci level is located at 149.18, followed by the 50% level closer to the area of interest at 147.75, in addition to the dynamic support of the 200-day simple moving average. The dividing line for a bullish reversal could be the 61.8% level at 146.30. The Stochastic oscillator is trending lower to show bearish pressure, but the oscillator is also approaching oversold territory, signalling exhaustion. Technically, a shift to the upside means buyers are ready to take over and potentially push the USD/JPY to a higher high. The Relative Strength Index is also moving lower, so the price may follow suit as sellers are in a better position.

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