• We anticipate further losses for the GBP/USD pair this week, but we believe the decline will be limited to the 1.3036 support level.
• Currently, the GBP/USD is trading around 1.3075 at the time of writing this analysis.
• Overall, it’s a busy few day for the GBP/USD exchange rate, as an important UK jobs report and US inflation figures are due to be released, both of which will guide the outcome of decisions at the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve later in September.

Facing the economic calendar risks, the pound is under short-term pressure against the dollar. The GBP/USD pair fell below the important psychological level of 1.31 on Monday, as the strong sell-off we witnessed on Friday extended into the new week. This move is driven by an adjustment in expectations for US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as the market has lowered the probability of a 50 basis point US interest rate cut on September 18, now favouring a more traditional 25 basis point move.

Overall, the extent of the sell-off will be determined first and foremost by how long the US interest rate outlook continues to be revised. The market entered September with high hopes for a rapid and aggressive easing cycle from the Fed, but the reality has become clear that the US economy is too healthy to warrant such an easing in policy expectations.

Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

The net result is a stronger dollar, and the immediate support for the resulting weakness in the GBP/USD pair is now at 1.3087, a horizontal graphical support from which the GBP/USD pair rebounded last week. As we have seen it come into play in late August, there is a chance for some buyers to intervene here.

However, we are looking at a lower level at 1.3036 as a more important support area, as this level represents a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the significant rally we saw from April to August. Furthermore, we note that Fibonacci retracement lines in this broader multi-month move have a degree of predictive power, and we will add them to our toolkit as a result. Note that upon reaching the 1.3036 level, the best price for the dollar for individual buyers will start to slip to the 1.29 level.

The pound is likely to dominate the proceedings on Tuesday with the release of UK jobs and wages figures. The market expects employment to rise by 84,000 jobs in the three months to July, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. However, UK jobs figures will be of greater importance for the pound, as this is what the Bank of England will be watching closely. The bank is not expected to cut rates again, but there is some debate about whether it will move again in October and November.

Overall, weaker-than-expected wage data could strengthen the chances of a rate cut in October, which would negatively impact the pound. Average earnings are expected to rise by 4.1% in the three months to July, down from 4.5%. Wage pressures have eased, but some economists are concerned that they are not falling fast enough. If this is the case, the data could beat expectations and reduce the chances of a rate cut in October, which could strengthen the pound against the euro and other currencies. According to analysts, “Another decline in nominal wages could ease inflation concerns in the UK and allow the Bank of England to cut rates later this year, although we still expect them to cut rates at a slower pace than the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve.”

Tomorrow, Wednesday, will see the release of the UK’s GDP figures for July, with the market expecting a 0.2% growth, up from the flat 0% growth in the previous month. Theoretically, the GDP figure ranks second after the wage data release, but any significant surprises (more than 0.2%) could shake the market, potentially weakening the British pound in case of any disappointments and strengthening it in the event of any unexpected growth.

The biggest release of the day is the US monthly inflation report, due at 13:30 GMT, and given the importance of global drivers, this could end up being the highlight of the week for sterling exchange rates. If US inflation comes in below expectations, market expectations of a 50bp rate cut by the Fed on September 18 will increase, boosting equity markets and supporting sterling against the euro.

However, if the data comes in stronger, expect more selling pressure, as the odds of a 50-basis point cut will be erased, potentially putting further pressure on stocks and the British pound.

Last week, we heard from an influential member of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee that, while U.S. rate cuts are necessary, the path forward remains data-dependent. Consequently, markets interpreted this as a sign that the Fed isn’t concerned enough to pursue a 50-basis point cut and would prefer sticking to more traditional 25 basis point adjustments. This view could shift if inflation numbers exceed expectations, increasing the likelihood of another strong week for the U.S. dollar.

Analysts also note that September is historically a month when global stocks decline, which could keep the pound under pressure in the coming three weeks, in line with this adjustment. However, we believe that supportive UK rate expectations could limit the downside for the GBP/USD pair, and we still view any weakness as part of a larger cyclical trend toward appreciation, which will eventually return.

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• At the beginning of this week, the Japanese yen declined to 143.79 against the US dollar, cutting short a recent upward trend as the US dollar gained some ground amid continued uncertainty about the extent of the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month.
• The latest monthly US jobs report did not provide much clarity on the path of interest rates, while traders await key US inflation data this week.
• At the same time, the Japanese yen rose by about 3% last week and reached its highest level since the beginning of the year amid bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates further amid strong growth, rising wages, and continued inflationary pressures.

Analogously, bank of Japan policymakers indicated that they would adjust monetary settings further if their economic and price outlooks materialize. On the economic data front, final figures showed that Japan’s economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% in the second quarter, below the previous figure of 3.1% and market expectations of 3.2%.

According to stock trading platforms, Japan’s Nikkei Index falls to its lowest level in a month. According to trading, the Nikkei 225 index of Japanese shares fell by 0.48% to close at 36,216 points, while the broader TOPIX index lost 0.68% to close at 2,580 points on Monday, settling at its lowest levels in more than three weeks, as technology stocks led the decline. Consequently, Japanese stocks followed a sharp sell-off in Wall Street markets on Friday as weak US jobs data raised concerns about the health of the world’s largest economy.

Meanwhile, final data showed that Japan’s economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% in the second quarter, below the previous figure of 3.1% and the consensus forecast of 3.2%. However, strong growth, rising wages and persistent inflationary pressures continue to support bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates further. According to trading platforms, losses in technology stocks were led by Tokyo Electron (-2.3%), Disco Corp (-3.1%) and Renesas Electronics (-3.1%). Other major constituents in the index also posted notable declines, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (-2.3%), Mitsubishi UFJ (-2.3%) and Toyota Motor (-3.2%).

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

USD/JPY has been trending lower in the past few days, but support around 142.00 appears to be holding. A pullback to Fibonacci levels close to here could follow. Meanwhile, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 143.88, followed by the 50% level at 144.51. also, the larger correction could reach the 61.8% level at 145.15 near the downtrend line that has held since August and the 100 SMA resistance.

As for the moving averages, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA suggesting that the stronger resistance path is to the downside or that the sell-off is likely to gain more strength than a reversal. However, the gap between the indicators is narrowing to reflect the weakening downward pressure and a potential bullish crossover. If the latter happens, the USD/JPY pair could attempt to break above the trend line and go for a reversal on the downside. Stochastic is after all signalling oversold conditions, and is turning higher to reflect the recovery of bullish momentum. Similarly, the RSI is moving higher, so the price could follow suit as bulls regain control. Both oscillators have plenty of room to run before signalling exhaustion among buyers.

Overall, the USD/JPY pair is likely to take cues from this week’s US inflation reports, especially the CPI release which could feature a decline in annual inflation. A weaker-than-expected result could increase the chances of a 0.5% Fed rate cut in September, which could drag the dollar lower further. On the other hand, strong data could dampen hopes of a Fed rate cut, which could lift the greenback. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that data out of Japan was mostly positive last week while the Bank of Japan’s rhetoric turned hawkish, which led to strong gains for the JPY. Finally, there are no major reports out of Japan this week.

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• EUR/USD seems to have entered a consolidation phase near 1.1050.
• The technical outlook doesn’t yet suggest that the pair is looking to recover.
• The US economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases.

After ending the previous week on a bearish note, EUR/USD remained under bearish pressure and closed in negative territory on Monday. The pair holds steady at around 1.1050 early Tuesday as investors move to the sidelines ahead of this week’s key events.

Rising US Treasury bond yields helped the US Dollar outperform its rivals in the first half of the day on Monday. Although the improving risk mood limited the USD’s gains in the American session, EUR/USD still lost nearly 0.5% on a daily basis.

The US economic calendar will not feature any macroeconomic data releases that could influence the USD’s valuation on Tuesday. Hence, investors could remain focused on risk perception. At the time of press, US stock index futures were trading little changed on the day. In case safe-haven flows return to markets ahead of the Presidential Debate, EUR/USD could have a difficult time holding its ground.

Nevertheless, investors could refrain from taking large positions while waiting for the Consumer Price Index data from the US and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcements later in the week.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 40 and EUR/USD trades well below the 20, 50 and the 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA). 

The Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend aligns as immediate support at 1.1040. If this support fails, 1.1000-1.0990 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, psychological level, 200-period SMA) could be seen as next bearish target before 1.0940 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).

On the upside, first resistance is located at 1.1070 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA) before 1.1100 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 100-period SMA) and 1.1160 (static level).

• During last Friday’s trading session, the US dollar fell and then recovered after the release of the weaker-than-expected US Labor market report.
• According to licensed trading platforms, the GBP/USD exchange rate recovered to 1.3230 from 1.3170 after the US non-farm payrolls data came in below expectations at 160,000 jobs after falling to 142,000 jobs in August.
• The pair then fell again to fall below 1.32, perhaps due to a speech from John Williams of the Federal Reserve, which did not include a clear commitment to cut US interest rates by 50 basis points later this month.

Williams said that the time had come for a US interest rate cut, but market expectations of a large 50 basis point move faded as he showed no inclination for such an aggressive initial cut. In addition, the US non-farm payrolls numbers were not significantly below expectations and remained above 114K in July. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, which was expected. Also shining on the positive side for the US dollar was the stronger-than-expected earnings data of 0.44% on a monthly basis, which was stronger than the expected reading of 0.3%.

Widely, Hurricane Beryl is believed to have tarnished the picture in July, which is why the smoothing of the data on a three-month basis provides a good glimpse into the direction of the Labor market. The three-month rolling average has now fallen to 116K from 146K, confirming a clear trend of weakness.

According to Forex trading, the US dollar’s ​​reaction after the payrolls is likely to be limited to recent ranges as there is not enough evidence in this report to clearly indicate whether the Fed will raise US interest rates by 50 or 25 basis points, ensuring that an element of uncertainty remains.

Overall, the US inflation report this week will provide more guidance for the markets, but it should be noted that the US Federal Reserve has shifted its focus from inflation to employment, believing that higher prices are eventually expected to decline further in the coming months. The Fed will be concerned about rising unemployment if it does not take action, but the debate now is over how strong the opening strike will be.

Concurrently, the Fed is expected to cut US interest rates by a total of 100 basis points this year, meaning at least one of the remaining meetings will see a 50-basis point rate cut. If that happens, the US dollar could continue to fall as US interest rates converge with those in other parts of the world.

An analysis from Bank of America says: “With the US 10-year Treasury yield trending lower after the first Fed cut, global financial conditions are set to improve further. The US dollar could see further weakness as other central banks, especially those that cut rates before the Fed, are now able to let the Fed do some of its work.”

On the stock exchanges front, the FTSE 100 failed to recover and closed down about 0.7% at 8,181.5 on Friday, its lowest level in nearly a month, extending losses to a sixth straight session. Meanwhile, the performance came as global traders reassessed the latest US jobs report, which pointed to continued slowdown in the Labor market, reinforcing expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, uncertainty persisted over the scope of the potential cut. Locally, figures from Halifax showed that UK house prices rose to a two-year high in August as confidence rebounded amid easing interest rates. Among individual stocks, Vestry Group shares hit the bottom of the index, down 6.3% after UBS analysts stuck to a “sell” rating on the housebuilder despite positive results on Thursday. Burberry shares lost more than 5% ahead of their imminent FTSE 100 plunge. Also, industrial mining shares fell on the back of lower copper and iron ore prices.

For the week, the FTSE 100 index of UK shares fell 2.3%.

Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

The GBP/USD price is trying hard to avoid collapsing to the psychological support level of 1.3000 so that the current bullish hopes do not evaporate. Technically, this is the most prominent level on the daily chart below and the GBP/USD price may remain in the current performance area until the financial markets and investors react to the announcement of the US inflation figures. Obviously, this latest economic data that will determine the fate of the US Federal Reserve’s decision in the coming days. In contrast, the resistance of 1.3250 remains the most important for the strength of bulls’ control. At the same time technical indicators are moving towards strong overbought levels.

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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar has bounced a bit in the early hours against the Japanese yen against the backdrop of the 142 yen level offering massive support. This is an area where I think a lot of traders will be looking to find buyers. And therefore, the little bit of a bounce does make a certain amount of sense as the 142 yen level has been crucial multiple times. When you zoom out, it doesn’t take a whole lot of imagination to see that the market is most certainly testing an area of pretty significant support, not only based on the 142 yen level, but a massive trend line that goes back to the beginning of 2022.

So, it’s somewhat now or never for the dollar. Keep in mind that on the 18th, we have the next Federal Reserve meeting. And while it is expected to be a cut, it’s the language that people will be paying the most attention to. Furthermore, two days later on the 20th, we have the next interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan.

So, the next week or two might be somewhat choppy as we hang around this general vicinity, but this is an area that if we are going to see a turnaround, this would be a prime candidate. If we break down below the 140 yen level, this whole thing probably falls apart, and we could find ourselves down at 125 yen rather quickly.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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EUR/USD Current price: 1.1046

• Fears of a Eurozone recession weighed on the Euro.
• US inflation and ECB’s monetary policy coming up this week.
• EUR/USD under selling pressure, critical support at 1.1020.

The EUR/USD pair eased towards 1.1035 during European trading hours, as the Euro got hit by poor local data fueling concerns about the Eurozone’s economic performance. At the same time, the US Dollar remained resilient amid caution ahead of first-tier events scheduled for later this week.

The EU released  September Sentix Investor Confidence, which fell for a third consecutive month, printing at -15.4. The accompanying report showed the economy is on the brink of a recession and that the poor performance of the German economy plays a major role in this.  The United States (US) macroeconomic calendar will remain light on Monday, as the country will release July Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit Change for the same month.

However, the US will publish the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, expected to have risen by 2.6% in the previous twelve months. Such a reading will be still above the Federal Reserve (Fed) goal of around 2%, but will be better than the 2.9% posted in July. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on monetary policy on Thursday. The ECB is widely anticipated to trim interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) after already delivering an interest rate cut. EU data released earlier today supports the case for a looser monetary policy amid the risk high rates imply to economic progress.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is sharply down for a second consecutive day, and technical readings in the daily chart show the slide may continue. The pair gapped lower at the opening and fell after filling the gap. A mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides resistance at around 1.1090, while the 100 SMA slowly advances above the 200 SMA in the 1.0850 price zone. Nevertheless, technical indicators head firmly south, and the Momentum indicator has already crossed below its 100 level, in line with continued selling pressure.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside.  The pair has extended its slide below the 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter one slowly gaining downward traction. Technical indicators have stabilized as the pair bounced from the aforementioned intraday low, but remain within negative levels, without signs of downward exhaustion. An immediate support level comes at 1.1020, with a break below it likely resulting in another steep leg south.

Support levels: 1.1020 1.0975 1.0930

Resistance levels: 1.1090 1.1115 1.1150  

• Expectations of further tightening of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy continue to support the strength of the Japanese yen against other major currencies, especially against the US dollar.
• According to licensed trading platforms, the USD/JPY pair has plunged to the support level of 141.75, near its lowest level in 2024, and is stabilizing around the 142.15 level at the beginning of this important week, which is titled with US inflation figures that may define the features of the US Federal Reserve’s decisions.

According to forex market trading, for two years since the US Federal Reserve began its aggressive battle against inflation, equity traders have been glued to their screens on the days the US Consumer Price Index was announced. Meanwhile, things should be different next Wednesday when the latest US CPI data is released. But why?

Because with inflation falling toward the Fed’s target and the central bank poised to cut interest rates, the reading is less important to the stock market. Instead, it’s all about the weak employment outlook and whether the central bank can avoid a sharp decline. The S&P 500 is coming off its worst week since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 as big tech stocks tumbled, led by a 14% drop in Nvidia Corp. shares. Volatility is back, with the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, rising from 15 on Aug. 30 to a high of nearly 24 on Sept. 6.

At the same time, options traders are betting on more of that, but less than the market expected, on CPI Day. As of Friday morning, they were pricing in a 0.85% move in either direction for the S&P 500 on Wednesday. If that happens, it would be among the smallest CPI Day moves this year, according to data compiled by Piper Sandler.

On the other hand, traders were pricing in a 1.1% implied move for the S&P 500 ahead of Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report. That was among the highest this year in absolute terms and 83% above the average implied daily move in 2024, according to data compiled by Susquehanna International Group. Moreover, the benchmark stock index managed to beat expectations, falling 1.7%.

Overall and fundamentally, market thinking has now shifted as US interest rate cuts have become a foregone conclusion, but the strength of the economy seems less secure. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell virtually declared victory in the battle against inflation during his comments at the central bank’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 23. Since then, more policymakers such as New York Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. Also, Fed Governor Christopher Waller have indicated that cuts are necessary – but the size is up for debate.

Now the Fed is turning to the other side of its dual mandate, and maximizing employment. The US jobs report released on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls rose by 142,000 jobs last month, putting the three-month average at its lowest level since mid-2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Looking ahead to the Fed’s interest rate decision on September 18, swaps contracts are fully pricing in at least a quarter-point cut. At the same time, implied moves ahead of major employment-related macro events are gaining momentum, and with equity volatility measures like the VIX remaining elevated as traders hedge for more downside risks to stocks, according to data compiled by UBS AG Group.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today

Friday’s pullback pushed USD/JPY below its 100-hour moving average. As a result, the pair is back near oversold levels on the 14-hour Relative Strength Index. In the short term, based on the hourly chart, USD/JPY is trading in a descending channel formation. Also, the 14-hour RSI has declined to approach oversold levels. Therefore, bears will seek to extend the current decline towards 140.44 or lower to the support at 138.52. On the other hand, bulls will seek to pounce on the rebounds at around 143.87 or higher at the resistance at 145.79. In the long term, based on the daily chart, USD/JPY is trading in a descending channel formation. The 14-day RSI also supports a long-term bearish bias as it approaches oversold levels. Therefore, bears will target long-term gains at around 136.27 or lower at the support at 129.66. On the other hand, bulls will seek to pounce on gains at around 149.07 or higher at the resistance at 155.40.

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• Prior to the close of last week’s trading, the EUR/USD pair declined following a speech by John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
• According to reliable trading platforms, the US dollar rose against the euro and other G10 currencies after a speech by John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, said it was time to cut interest rates but was not enthusiastic about starting the cycle with a large 50 basis point cut.

As a result, the euro fell against the US dollar EUR/USD 1.1065 after attempts to rebound higher with gains that reached the resistance level of 1.1155 and settled around the level of 1.1088 at the beginning of trading in the week of announcing the European Central Bank policy decisions amid expectations of a reduction in addition to the announcement of important US inflation figures. Williams had said in a speech he gave to the Council on Foreign Relations: “With the US economy now stable and inflation heading towards 2%, it is now appropriate to reduce the degree of restriction in the policy stance by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate.”

What the financial markets were looking for was any indication that the Federal Reserve was ready to cut US interest rates by 50 basis points. Instead, Williams said: “The stance of monetary policy could be moved to a more neutral framework over time depending on the development of data, expectations, and risks to achieving our objectives.”

He suggested there was no need to panic about the economy and the prospect of a more conventional 25bp cut seemed to disappoint the market, which had seen the odds of a 50bp move closer to 50%. Equity markets fell as expectations of a more aggressive pace of easing receded. In turn, US Treasury yields rose, as did safe-haven currencies such as the franc and the dollar. The euro/dollar exchange rate gave up its high of 1.1154 to trade at 1.1080 at the time of writing.

Before his speech, the very important US jobs report for August was released, and there was no “conclusive evidence” for supporters of a 50-basis point move. Certainly, the headline payroll figure was below expectations at 160,000 at 142,000, but this was higher than July and was not a big surprise. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, and earnings beat expectations at 0.44% month-on-month, which was stronger than the expected 0.3%.

What will affect the EUR/USD pair in the coming days?

All eyes are now on this week’s US inflation figures, as a significant drop in expectations could activate bets on a 50-basis point move, which could in turn boost the EUR/USD exchange rate. However, anything close to consensus would warrant a 25-basis point move, which could keep the pair under pressure as the US dollar continues to make a comeback in September.

According to stock trading platforms, Wall Street markets end the week sharply lower. According to trading, US stocks fell on Friday, affected by concerns about a slowing Labor market and technology selloffs. The S&P 500 fell 1.7%, the Dow Jones lost 409 points, and the Nasdaq fell 2.5%. Big tech stocks like Amazon (-3.6%), Alphabet (-4%), and Meta (-3.2%) saw big losses, while chipmakers like Broadcom (-10.3%) and Nvidia (-4.1%) also saw sharp declines. According to the economic calendar, the US jobs report for August, which showed 142,000 new jobs versus 161,000 expected, added to the market tension. In addition, comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller increased expectations for a further US interest rate cut in September. Also, he emphasized the growing risks in the Labor market and expressed his openness to cutting interest rates further if necessary. Over the past week, the S&P 500 lost about 4%, recording its worst week since March 2023. Likewise, the Nasdaq fell 5.6%, recording its worst start to September since 2001. Similarly, the Dow Jones fell 2.5%, recording its biggest decline in early September since 2008.

EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:

According to the daily chart, the Euro against the US Dollar EUR/USD is in a neutral position, and the trend will be more bullish if it moves towards the resistance levels of 1.1120 and 1.1200, respectively. On the other hand, and for the same period of time, the support level of 1.0945 will remain the most important for bears to control the trend again. Ultimately, we expect the Euro Dollar price to remain in narrow ranges until the reaction to the announcement of the European Central Bank policy decisions and the US inflation figures.

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• You can see that the British pound initially rallied during the trading session on Friday, but then collapsed quite significantly to show extreme signs of weakness.
• At this point in time, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of uncertainty.
• With the jobs number in the United States coming out weaker than anticipated, that has people worried about the global growth situation. And of course, whether or not the trader is going to continue to chase risk, or will they run into something like the US bond market in order to protect their wealth?

That is a very real possibility, but we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out. Keep in mind, this is a market that has been very, uh, bullish for some time. And we are now consolidating quite drastically. This suggests that the market will more likely than not continue to see the dips as potential buying opportunities, but if we really start to see panic take over the market, the US dollar is almost always a big winner.

A breakdown below the 1.3050 level opens up the possibility of a move down to the 1.30 level and then the 50 day EMA. In general, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy and no matter what happens next, it is going to be a choppy affair.

If we were to break above the 1.3250 level, then the 1.35 level could end up being a target, which being a psychologically important large figure, it also could end up being a ceiling. We will wait to see if that ends up being the case, and as a result, I think this is a market that will remain volatile, but over the next few weeks, we should get a bit of clarity if the Federal Reserve can do its job of conveying their plans to the marketplace.

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