– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP to USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Softens on UK Economic Concerns

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) pulled back from a one-month peak on Thursday as volatility picked up following the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of 2025.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was hovering around $1.3358, roughly 0.2% below the day’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) saw sharp, uneven swings on Thursday as markets attempted to digest the Fed’s December rate cut.

As widely expected, the central bank lowered its benchmark rate to 3.5–3.75%.

However, traders were taken aback by the voting distribution. Ahead of the decision, markets had anticipated as many as four dissents, reflecting deep division within the Federal Open Market Committee. Instead, just two members opposed the move, while another unexpectedly argued for a larger cut.

This dovish surprise sent the Dollar sharply lower in the immediate aftermath, amplifying speculation that the Fed may deliver additional easing through 2026.

The ‘Greenback’ later reclaimed some ground, though its recovery was uneven as investors continued to debate the likely pace of next year’s policy trajectory.

The Pound (GBP) struggled for support on Thursday as concerns around the UK’s economic resilience resurfaced.

Investors remain uneasy about signs of a weakening labour market and mounting pressure on household spending. A new Barclays report underscored these concerns, revealing the sharpest decline in consumer expenditure in five years.

Such developments have strengthened expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will need to adopt a more accommodative stance, with further rate cuts anticipated over the coming months.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: Underwhelming GDP to Weigh on Sterling?

Looking ahead, Friday’s UK GDP release will take centre stage for Pound traders.

Economists expect October’s monthly GDP to show a modest 0.1% rise — the first growth since June — but such a muted improvement is unlikely to shift the broader narrative of a sluggish UK economy.

A soft reading may reinforce expectations that the BoE will cut rates at its upcoming meeting, potentially placing renewed pressure on Sterling.

Meanwhile, with the US schedule light on major data, Dollar movement may be guided largely by broader risk appetite. A risk-on environment could leave the ‘Greenback’ on the defensive, while any deterioration in sentiment may help USD find renewed support.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on December 11, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Neutral with an upward bias.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1620 – 1.1570 – 1.1490
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1720 – 1.1800 – 1.1880.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1570 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1490.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1800 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1900.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Currency prices moved positively against the US Dollar after the Federal Reserve cut the key US interest rate for the third consecutive time on Wednesday, though it signaled the possibility of keeping it unchanged in the coming months—a move that could anger President Donald Trump, who has demanded sharp reductions in borrowing costs. According to reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD pair rebounded to the 1.1680 resistance level at the time of writing this analysis. These gains may push the EUR/USD trend out of the neutral zone that dominated trading recently while awaiting the Fed announcement.

The bullish scenario for EUR/USD requires more work to confirm the strength of the bulls’ control. On the daily chart, the psychological resistance of 1.1800 remains the key to a confirmed bullish shift. The pair’s recent gains pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to the 61 level, which supports a technical correction upward, but it still has more room for stronger gains before reaching the overbought zone. The MACD indicator is also moving positively. The echoes of the Fed’s decisions, its policy statement, and updated projections will continue to influence EUR/USD trading in the coming days.

The scenario for a EUR/USD pullback over the same timeframe is linked to the bears bringing the currency prices back toward the vicinity of the psychological support of 1.1500 once again.

Trading Advice

Be cautious. The EUR/USD’s upward trend is still in its early stages. We await confirmation of this and recommend buying from the 1.1500 support level again, but never take unnecessary risks.

The Future of US Interest Rates in the New Year

Following the widely anticipated announcement of a US interest rate cut, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-setting committee indicated in a statement released after a two-day meeting that it is likely to keep US interest rates unchanged in the coming months. In a series of quarterly economic projections, Federal Reserve officials indicated they expect to cut US interest rates only once next year. Overall, yesterday’s rate cut brought the federal funds rate down by a quarter of a percentage point to around 3.6%, its lowest level in nearly three years. Lower interest rates by the Federal Reserve can reduce borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards over time, although market forces may also influence these rates.

At the final meeting of 2025, three Fed officials opposed the move, the most dissenting votes in six years, indicating deep divisions within a committee that traditionally operates by consensus. Two officials voted to keep the U.S. interest rate unchanged, while Stephen Miran, appointed by Trump in September, voted for a half-point cut.

The December meeting may well signal a more tense period for the Fed. Officials are divided between those who favor lowering U.S. interest rates to stimulate employment and those who favor keeping them unchanged because inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Unless there are clear signs of full control over inflation, or unemployment worsens, these divisions are likely to persist.

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Created on December 11, 2025

• USD/JPY is holding firm ahead of the FOMC, with traders focused on the press conference for clues on the pace of future cuts.
• The broader uptrend remains intact, with potential pullback zones between 155 and 153 offering possible long entries.

We do have the FOMC interest rate here in a couple of hours, and perhaps more importantly, we have the press conference. So, I suspect that about three hours from now, this chart will look quite a bit different. That being said, it doesn’t really matter because there are a couple of things that we can look at to determine whether or not there is going to be a continuation of the trend, or do we get some type of significant pullback. Notice how I didn’t say change in trend. And that’s because it would take a massive change in tone by the Federal Reserve to turn this thing around.

Pay attention to the press conference; he may say something along the lines of “data-dependent in our future decisions”, and that throws a bit of doubt into the market about the likelihood of continuous interest rate cuts. If that’s the case, then the US dollar should do quite well over the longer term. As a trader, I have closed my long position, and I’m waiting for an entry again. I look at this through the prism of maybe 154 yen being an excellent opportunity. But if we take off straight away and that would be a result of either Powell sounding very hesitant to cut going forward, the statement sounding very hesitant, or maybe they don’t cut at all.

Watching Key Pullback Zones

Right now, the Fed watch tool at the CME suggests, I want to say it’s around 90%, I haven’t checked it in a few days, that the Federal Reserve will cut. So, I think that would catch the market so far offside that the US dollar would just slam through the 158 yen level and go to the 160 yen level very quickly. That being said, though, I do think we have an opportunity for a little bit of a pullback to take advantage of, and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. I’m watching this area right around 155, down to 154, and then again at 153.

What I am looking for on a shorter timeframe, not the daily chart necessarily, is some type of move like this. The V pattern on the hourly chart. Once we start to bounce and pick up a little bit of momentum, I’m willing to go long, and that’s because I am okay with owning this pair longer term. That being said, if we break down below 153 in the next several days, then the game’s up at least for a while. I don’t think that happens. Truthfully, I’d be a bit concerned if we broke down below 154, at least in the short term.

Longer term, I do think we’d go higher because the Bank of Japan has a whole litany of problems it has to deal with as well. And really, at this point in time, I think this ends up being a continuation of the carry trade, but I recognize that you may get an opportunity to pick up cheap US dollars.

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Platinum price surrendered to the sideways bias dominance, to fluctuate slowly near$1660.00 level, affected by the stability at $1695.00 barrier, which obstructs the chances of resuming the main bullish attack.

The price might keep providing sideways trading, however the stability above the extra support of $1605.00 supports the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, therefore, we will keep waiting for breaching the current barrier, to open the way for recording new gains that might begin at $1715.00 and $1745.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1635.00 and $1695.00

Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach

Platinum price surrendered to the sideways bias dominance, to fluctuate slowly near$1660.00 level, affected by the stability at $1695.00 barrier, which obstructs the chances of resuming the main bullish attack.

The price might keep providing sideways trading, however the stability above the extra support of $1605.00 supports the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, therefore, we will keep waiting for breaching the current barrier, to open the way for recording new gains that might begin at $1715.00 and $1745.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1635.00 and $1695.00

Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach

• The GBP/USD forecast slightly edges lower despite the dollar weakness led by the dovish Fed tone.
• Lower US yields and broad greenback weakness continue to put a risk floor under GBP/USD.
• Pound stays vulnerable with growing expectations of a BoE rate cut next week.

The GBP/USD price is trading lower near 1.3365 on Thursday ahead of the London session, pressured by a modest rebound in the US dollar following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. Despite the pullback, the downside remains limited as the Fed ultimately delivered a dovish tone, encouraging investors to sell the greenback into any strength.

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The Fed cuts the rate by 25 bps for the third straight meeting. However, the voting split, with two members favoring a pause and Trump-appointed Stephen Miran requesting a more substantial move, reflects the growing division within the committee.

In Powell’s press conference, he emphasized that policymakers need time to assess the impact of the easing on the economy. Meanwhile, the Fed projected only one cut in 2026, but traders are speculating on two more cuts, especially after Powell flagged the downside risk to the labor market.  The shift in tone triggered a broad dollar sell-off, with the Dollar Index falling to the lowest level since October 21, while the GBP/USD marked a fresh top at 1.3391 before falling.

US yields also slid after the Fed announced fresh Treasury bill purchases, starting from December 12, initiating $40 billion program to stabilize liquidity. The earlier-than-expected balance sheet expansion plan weighed on the yields, adding more pressure on the dollar.

However, the GBP outlook remains complex amid the Bank of England’s easing expectations. Markets now price in an 88% probability of a BoE rate cut next week, following a series of softer UK data that signals easing inflationary pressure. The divergence, with the Fed being flexible and the BoE moving sooner than expected, is limiting the GBP/USD from extending its rally despite dollar weakness.

The broad market sentiment remains cautious as the GBP/USD is left to balance between the dovish Fed and the vulnerability in the pound linked to the BoE. Traders now await the US initial Jobless Claims data due in Thursday’s New York Session for intraday direction.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Correction Before Bullish Continuation

The GBP/USD 4-hour chart shows the price drifting slowly towards the 20-period MA at around 1.3350. The RSI is off the overbought zone but remains stable, indicating a temporary choppiness before an upside continuation.

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However, breaching the 20-period MA could push the price further down towards the 50-period MA at 1.3330, ahead of the demand zone around 1.3275. On the upside, today’s top at 1.3391 remains a key resistance ahead of 1.3420.

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– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Rate JUMPS as FED to Pause After Today’s Rate Cut

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) rallied to 1.33828 on Wednesday after the Fed cut rates by 25bps but signalled a higher bar for further easing, according to Wells Fargo. “The FOMC reduced the fed funds target range and signaled that additional easing will face a higher bar at its next meeting.”

Despite hawkish dissents, Wells Fargo notes the Fed still maintains an easing bias into 2025, with its policy-rate outlook unchanged. “The Committee maintains an easing bias, with the median 2025 rate unchanged at 3.375%.”

The bank expects the Fed to slow, not end, the easing cycle. “We continue to look for two more 25bps cuts next year.”

Wells Fargo adds that new reserve-management purchases are technical only. “RMPs will have no bearing on our view of the stance of monetary policy.”

PRE-FED:

GBP/USD found some support below 1.3300 and is trading around 1.3320 with a firm dollar limiting scope for any fresh advance.

The Federal Reserve policy decision is likely to be crucial for near-term direction with choppy trading and potential short-term dollar gains if the Fed is cautious over the scope for 2026 rate cuts.

Although noting the potential for dollar gains after the Fed decision, ING added; “but the release of what should be soft jobs data next week and seasonal December weakness suggest that today’s dollar rally might not last.

According to UoB; “today, there is scope for GBP to test 1.3265 before a recovery can be expected. Based on the current momentum, a clear break below this level is unlikely. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.3330 and 1.3355.

IG Group commented; “The early September low at $1.33 is now being fought over, but a close above here helps to reinforce the bullish view.”

There are very strong expectations that the Fed will cut rates later on Wednesday by a further 25 basis points to 3.75% with the main focus on the policy outlook.

ING commented; “The big focus will be the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the number of dissenters against the 25bp cut, and then Chair Powell’s press conference.”

BNY Americas macro strategist John Velis commented; “The post-meeting press conference could be – as always – a wild card.”

There is the risk of relatively hawkish comments from Chair Powell and some dissents against the December decision to cut rates.

MUFG commented; “Given the divisions over the outlook it will be difficult for Powell to send a strong message of pause but no doubt by reaching a consensus the message will certainly be that the Fed have been pro-active and can now assess incoming data.”

Some members will also be reluctant to forecast further significant cuts for next year.

BNY’s Velis added; During recent FOMC pressers, Chair Powell’s tone has often departed from the actual policy action taken or the statement accompanying that action. We could easily see a rate cut, a dovish set of dots, and a somewhat hawkish qualitative assessment at Wednesday’s press conference.”

ING commented; “While all the above sounds dollar positive, it is also widely expected. And perhaps it is still a surprise that the rates market still has so much easing priced in. Presumably, this is the Kevin Hassett effect, where his arrival at the Fed in February can throw a dovish cloak over the FOMC outlook.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Price Forecast: GBP Steady with “Dots to Dictate Reaction”

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded steadily above $1.33 on Wednesday as markets positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of the year.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3310, almost unchanged from the start of the session.

The US Dollar (USD) was muted through Wednesday’s European trade as investors assessed the likely outcome of the Federal Reserve’s evening policy announcement.

Expectations around a December rate cut have swung sharply in recent weeks, but market consensus has now solidified around a 25-basis-point reduction.

With the move largely priced in, attention has shifted to what may come next. Forward guidance from the Fed still holds the potential to move the Dollar, especially if Chair Jerome Powell strikes a firmer tone, as he did following October’s meeting.

According to Scotiabank, “After USD gains earlier this week and markets perhaps expecting a (mildly) “hawkish cut” today, traders are poorly positioned for messaging that leans somewhat dovish.

“After a 25bps cut today, swaps do not have another rate cut fully priced in until mid-2026.

“Beyond the rate decision, forecasts and the dots will dictate the market’s reaction.

“No changes are expected in the median dot for the next few years.

“The consensus does expect a mild nudge lower for the long-term median (i.e., terminal rate) dot to 3%, however, which would align a little closer to current market thinking.”

Traders will also parse the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Should policymakers maintain guidance for just one rate cut in 2026, compared with market expectations for at least two, the US Dollar could receive renewed support.

The Pound (GBP) treaded water on Wednesday, with the absence of UK economic data leaving Sterling without a clear catalyst.

Price action was largely guided by broader market sentiment, with traders hesitant to establish strong positions ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

This caution kept the Pound rangebound, contributing to the subdued tone across GBP/USD markets.

GBP/USD Forecast: Modest UK GDP Uptick to Provide Limited Support?

Beyond the Fed decision, focus will shift to the UK’s upcoming GDP release for October.

Economists expect the data to show the economy returning to growth for the first time since June, although only by around 0.1%. Such a muted rebound may provide limited support for Sterling and could instead reinforce concerns over the UK’s lacklustre economic trajectory.

Weak growth prospects would likely strengthen expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut next week, potentially limiting GBP upside.

On the US front, the Dollar may encounter headwinds on Thursday if initial jobless claims point to a larger-than-expected rise in early December, adding weight to the argument for a more accommodative Fed.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Fed LIVE: Test for Pound Sterling Bulls, GBP/USD Dependent on Dip Buyers?

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has found some support below 1.3300 and is trading around 1.3320 with a firm dollar limiting scope for any fresh advance.

The Federal Reserve policy decision is likely to be crucial for near-term direction with choppy trading and potential short-term dollar gains if the Fed is cautious over the scope for 2026 rate cuts.

Although noting the potential for dollar gains after the Fed decision, ING added; “but the release of what should be soft jobs data next week and seasonal December weakness suggest that today’s dollar rally might not last.

According to UoB; “today, there is scope for GBP to test 1.3265 before a recovery can be expected. Based on the current momentum, a clear break below this level is unlikely. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.3330 and 1.3355.

IG Group commented; “The early September low at $1.33 is now being fought over, but a close above here helps to reinforce the bullish view.”

There are very strong expectations that the Fed will cut rates later on Wednesday by a further 25 basis points to 3.75% with the main focus on the policy outlook.

ING commented; “The big focus will be the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the number of dissenters against the 25bp cut, and then Chair Powell’s press conference.”

BNY Americas macro strategist John Velis commented; “The post-meeting press conference could be – as always – a wild card.”

There is the risk of relatively hawkish comments from Chair Powell and some dissents against the December decision to cut rates.

MUFG commented; “Given the divisions over the outlook it will be difficult for Powell to send a strong message of pause but no doubt by reaching a consensus the message will certainly be that the Fed have been pro-active and can now assess incoming data.”

Some members will also be reluctant to forecast further significant cuts for next year.

BNY’s Velis added; During recent FOMC pressers, Chair Powell’s tone has often departed from the actual policy action taken or the statement accompanying that action. We could easily see a rate cut, a dovish set of dots, and a somewhat hawkish qualitative assessment at Wednesday’s press conference.”

ING commented; “While all the above sounds dollar positive, it is also widely expected. And perhaps it is still a surprise that the rates market still has so much easing priced in. Presumably, this is the Kevin Hassett effect, where his arrival at the Fed in February can throw a dovish cloak over the FOMC outlook.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts