GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 03.07.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis

The British pound has rallied a bit during the course of the trading week, as we continue to see a lot of upward pressure due to the Bank of Japan and its ultra-loose monetary policy. With that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where the market is eventually going to continue going higher, and that every time we pull back it should be thought of as a potential buying opportunity. The ¥180 level is an area that will offer a significant amount of support, and therefore I think we have the possibility of a “buy on the dip” move rather soon. If we can break above the ¥185 level, then the market is likely to go much higher, perhaps reaching the ¥200 level by the end of the year.

That being said, we are a little bit overdone at this point, so a short-term pullback makes more sense than anything else. That doesn’t mean we have to pull back, just that it does make a certain amount of sense as we have a pullback in order to offer a bit of value. This is especially true if we can get near the ¥180 level, as it has been so important recently. After the most recent shot higher, the market looks like it is a little overstretched at this point, so we need to be very cognizant of the fact that it is probably only a matter of time. Nonetheless, I have no interest in shorting this market, it is far too bullish for me to try to fight. Looking for value will continue to be the way I trade this market going forward.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

More From FXEMPIRE:

• UK data revealed a significant jump in monthly unemployment claims.

• US data revealed a smaller-than-expected figure for consumer inflation in May.

• Fed forecasts at the FOMC meeting showed only one rate cut in December.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows more downside potential as Fed forecasts for rate cuts overshadow the recent cooler inflation figures.

Ups and downs of GBP/USD

The pound had a bearish week amid a range of economic reports from the US and the UK. At the start of the week, UK data revealed a significant jump in monthly unemployment claims, showing a decline in the labor market that weighed on the pound. 

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However, the move later reversed when US data revealed a smaller-than-expected figure for consumer inflation in May. Investors raised bets for a Fed rate cut in September, pushing the dollar lower. Unfortunately, Fed forecasts at the FOMC meeting showed only one rate cut in December, which helped the dollar recover as the week ended. This recovery continued despite softer-than-expected wholesale inflation data.

Next week’s key events for GBP/USD

Next week, the UK will release several major reports, including the CPI, retail sales, and manufacturing PMI. At the same time, investors will pay attention to Thursday’s Bank of England policy meeting. Meanwhile, the US will only release its retail sales report. 

The UK consumer inflation report will significantly shape the outlook for interest rates. Inflation in the country has been on a downtrend and is currently at 2.3%, near the central bank’s target. However, in the last report, economists had expected it to reach 2.1%. Another bigger-than-expected figure would lower bets for a cut in August.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England will likely maintain rates at its policy meeting.

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Break below 22-SMA triggers shift in sentiment 

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 22-SMA after failing to breach the 1.2800 critical resistance level. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, signaling a shift in sentiment to bearish. 

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The previous bullish move paused at 1.2800, and bears started showing strength with large candles. The shift in sentiment will allow them to revisit the 1.2600 support level. If bears can break below this level to start making lower highs and lows, they will confirm a new downtrend. Moreover, the decline might continue to the 1.2400 key level.

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• GBP/USD stays on the back foot and tests 1.2700 on Friday.
• The near-term technical outlook points to a bearish tilt.
• The USD could continue to benefit from the souring market mood.

GBP/USD closed in negative territory on Thursday and snapped a three-day winning streak. The pair struggles to hold its ground early Friday and tests 1.2700.

The US Dollar erased a portion of Wednesday losses in the European session on Thursday. Although the soft producer inflation data limited the USD’s rebound in the early American session, the souring risk mood helped the currency regather its strength later in the day.

Early Friday, safe-haven flows continue to dominate the financial markets, helping the USD continue to outperform its rivals. Additionally, the USD seems to be capturing capital outflows out of the Euro, which struggles to find demand amid political jitters, and the Japanese Yen, which stays under selling pressure following the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold policy settings unchanged.

The University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Survey will be featured in the US economic calendar on Friday. Investors, however, could continue to react to changes in risk perception heading into the weekend.

As of writing, US stock index futures were down between 0.65% and 0.1%. A bearish opening in Wall Street, followed by an extended slide, could further boost the USD and weigh on GBP/USD. 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD dropped below the lower limit of the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart fell below 40, reflecting the bearish tilt in the short term outlook.

On the downside, the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as first support at 1.2670 before 1.2640 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.2600 (psychological level, static level).

If GBP/USD returns within the ascending channel by rising above 1.2730, sellers could be discouraged. In this case, 1.2750 (100-period SMA) could act as interim resistance before 1.2800 (psychological level, static level).

 

• GBP/USD stays on the back foot and tests 1.2700 on Friday.
• The near-term technical outlook points to a bearish tilt.
• The USD could continue to benefit from the souring market mood.

GBP/USD closed in negative territory on Thursday and snapped a three-day winning streak. The pair struggles to hold its ground early Friday and tests 1.2700.

The US Dollar erased a portion of Wednesday losses in the European session on Thursday. Although the soft producer inflation data limited the USD’s rebound in the early American session, the souring risk mood helped the currency regather its strength later in the day.

Early Friday, safe-haven flows continue to dominate the financial markets, helping the USD continue to outperform its rivals. Additionally, the USD seems to be capturing capital outflows out of the Euro, which struggles to find demand amid political jitters, and the Japanese Yen, which stays under selling pressure following the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold policy settings unchanged.

The University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Survey will be featured in the US economic calendar on Friday. Investors, however, could continue to react to changes in risk perception heading into the weekend.

As of writing, US stock index futures were down between 0.65% and 0.1%. A bearish opening in Wall Street, followed by an extended slide, could further boost the USD and weigh on GBP/USD. 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD dropped below the lower limit of the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart fell below 40, reflecting the bearish tilt in the short term outlook.

On the downside, the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as first support at 1.2670 before 1.2640 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.2600 (psychological level, static level).

If GBP/USD returns within the ascending channel by rising above 1.2730, sellers could be discouraged. In this case, 1.2750 (100-period SMA) could act as interim resistance before 1.2800 (psychological level, static level).

 

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis

The US dollar has been fairly noisy during the week against the Japanese yen, but that’s to be expected. We had both an FOMC meeting and a Bank of Japan meeting, so there was always going to be a bit of concern when it comes to potential fundamental noise.

That being said, it looks like we are recovering, and it looks like we are just basically working off some froth trying to determine whether or not we can get above the 158 yen level, an area that’s been significant resistance. And then again, we also need to pay close attention to the 160 yen level, an area that seems to be a trip wire for the Bank of Japan as they intervened near that level in the past.

With that being the case, the market certainly looks as if it remains a buy on the dip scenario, with the 155 yen level underneath being massive potential support. So with this, I like the idea of buying these dips and not necessarily worrying about trying to get too cute with this. You get paid at the end of every day. So it is worth recognizing that it is a positive swap and therefore you can’t short it. I think a lot of institutional traders are looking at this through the same prism as well. So as long as that’s going to be the case, I just don’t see a situation where we can do anything other than buy any signs of weakness that give us an opportunity to pick up cheap greenbacks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

More From FXEMPIRE:

• EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure in the European session on Friday.
• The technical outlook suggests that there is more room on the downside before the pair turns oversold.
• The US Dollar could preserve its strength in case safe-haven flows dominate the action.

Following Wednesday’s upsurge, EUR/USD turned south and registered large losses on Thursday. The pair stays under pressure on Friday and trades at its lowest level since early May slightly below 1.0700.

The negative shift seen in risk mood helped the US Dollar (USD) gather strength during the American trading hours on Thursday. Additionally, the negative impact of soft inflation data on the USD started to fade away as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook amid the hawkish revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections.

Meanwhile, investors’ focus shifts back to political jitters in the Eurozone following the key macroeconomic events in the US, making it difficult for the Euro to find demand. 

In the second half of the day, the US economic docket will feature the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for June. Nevertheless, market participants are likely to ignore this report and stay focused on the risk perception.

At the time of press, Dow Futures were down 0.5% while S&P 500 Futures were losing 0.2%. On the other hand, Nasdaq Futures were last seen posting small daily gains. In case Wall Street’s main indexes push lower heading into the weekend, the USD is likely to continue to outperform its rivals.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly above 30, suggesting that the pair has some more room on the downside before it turns technically oversold. 1.0670 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as next support before 1.0600 (psychological level, static level).

In case EUR/USD manages to stabilize above 1.0700 (psychological level, static level), sellers could look to book profits ahead of the weekend and allow the pair to correct higher. In this scenario, 1.0760 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) could be seen as next resistance before 1.0790-1.0800, where the 100-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages are located.

 

• The Pound Sterling faced rejection once again above 1.2800 against the US Dollar.
• GBP/USD buyers look to UK inflation and BoE policy decision for fresh impetus.
• The Pound Sterling yearns for a weekly close above 1.2800 to refuel the uptrend.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) rebounded firmly against the US Dollar (USD) this week, propelling GBP/USD to a new three-month top, but sellers once again lurked above the 1.2800 mark.

Pound Sterling struggled to stay resilient against US Dollar

Following a bullish start to the week, GBP/USD turned south in the second half of the week after failing to recapture the 1.2800 level. 

The pair extended its previous week’s decline at the start of the week on Monday, as the US Dollar stretched its robust Nonfarm Payrolls data-inspired uptrend. Further, the Greenback also capitalized on the EUR/USD sell-off, as the Euro was undermined by the Euro area political jitters after French President Emmanuel Macron announced snap elections on Sunday, dissolving parliament after exit polls showed his alliance suffered a heavy defeat in European elections to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party.

In lieu of this, GBP/USD touched a weekly low at 1.2688 on Monday. Thereafter, the Pound Sterling staged a comeback and extended the renewed upside into early Wednesday, as the US Dollar paused its uptrend ahead of the critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

The US CPI data came in softer than expected and bolstered expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year. Increased dovish Fed bets smashed the US Dollar alongside the US Treasury bond yields across the curve, driving GBP/USD to the highest level in three months at 1.2861.

The headline CPI was flat over the month in May, below expectations for a 0.1% gain. Core CPI rose 0.2%, which is below estimates for a 0.3% increase. The annual figures also came in softer than the market consensus.

However, the pair failed to sustain at higher levels, as sellers quickly jumped back into the game on the Fed policy announcements. Fed held policy rates steady in the range of 5.25%-5.50%, following the June policy meeting. The revised Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot-plot, indicated the policymakers expect to cut rates only once in 2024, against a projection of three rate cuts in the March forecasts and down from two rate cuts widely anticipated.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered hawkish comments during his post-policy meeting press conference, further allowing the US Dollar buyers to recover lost ground. GBP/USD reversed sharply in the Fed aftermath and gave up the 1.2800 threshold once again.

The Fed’s signal that it is eyeing only one rate cut this year continued to fuel the US Dollar recovery momentum, exerting additional downside pressure on the Pound Sterling in the second half of the week and dragging GBP/USD to multi-week lows below 1.2700 on Friday. Markets are now pricing in about a 58% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in September, compared to a 47% probability of such a reduction seen a week ago, CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed.

Meanwhile, the UK employment data released on Tuesday failed to have any significant impact on the Pound Sterling. With all the public appearances from the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers canceled ahead of the July 4 general elections in the UK, the pair remained at the mercy of the US Dollar dynamics.

Week ahead: UK inflation and BoE decision on tap

With the US CPI data and Fed policy announcements out of the way, the focus now shifts toward the inflation report from the UK and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision in the week ahead.

There are no relevant economic statistics due from both sides of the Atlantic on Monday, but China’s activity numbers could keep traders entertained.

Tuesday will feature the US Retail Sales report, followed by Industrial Production and other minor data. The UK CPI data for May will be published on Wednesday, ahead of the BoE policy verdict on Thursday. The US weekly Jobless Claims and Building Permits data will be released the same day.

On Friday, the UK Retail Sales data will drop, followed by the S&P Global Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI reports from the UK and the US.

Speeches from the Fed policymakers will be closely scrutinized during the week for fresh insights on the Fed’s interest rate path.

GBP/USD: Technical Outlook

As observed on the daily chart, GBP/USD continued to face rejection above the 1.2800 threshold.

Therefore, buyers yearn for a weekly candlestick close above that level for the Pound Sterling to accelerate the uptrend.

Acceptance above the latter would open the door for a test of the March 8 high of 1.2894. The next relevant resistance is seen at the 1.2950 psychological level.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 50 for the first time since early May, suggesting a buildup of bearish pressure. Additionally, GBP/USD made a daily close below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located at 1.2744, for the first time since April 30 and dropped below the rising trendline support at 1.2725.

If GBP/USD fails to reclaim the above-mentioned levels, sell-off could be extended toward the confluence zone of the 100-day SMA and the 50-day SMA at around 1.2630.

The 200-day SMA at 1.2551 will be the last line of defense for Pound Sterling buyers.

 

The pound-to-Japanese Yen forecast is an indication of where technical and fundamental analysts think the GBPJPY price may be in the future. You can use these exchange rate forecasts to help you decide if now is the right time to buy Japanese Yen, or if you should wait until the price improves further.

Highlights

• Bank of Japan struggles to overturn Japanese Yen’s persistent weakness
• GBPJPY testing psychological 200; an upside breakout (GBP stronger) looms
• Use GBP strength to buy more Yen

How has the Pound performed against the Japanese Yen recently?

The Japanese Yen has been stuck in a negative trend for the past few years.

One main reason the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate policy persistently pulls JPY’s value down is that it was only in March this year that the Japanese central bank overturned its extremely accommodative monetary policy. Inflation, not deflation, was BoJ’s ultimate objective. But even this simple objective is hard to attain.

In 2022, for example, tight international crude supplies and soaring natural gas prices sent the Japanese inflation rate to a 40-year high. The peak inflation rate? Just 4.3 percent. And as soon as energy prices came down from the peak, inflation promptly dropped below 3 percent again. That’s how difficult it is to engineer sustained inflation in Japan. Until the inflation objective is reached, the BoJ simply refuses to tighten.

Source: Financial Times (paywall) 

In contrast, the Bank of England hiked the Base Rate multiple times in 2022 and 2023. Currently, the UK Base Rate is at 5.25 percent. In contrast, the Japanese policy is zero. And in the past 25 years, the highest Japanese policy rate was a meagre 0.5 percent. More importantly, the BoJ is still buying Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at the tune of $38 billion per month (6 trillion yen). That’s QE.

This monetary policy divergence is promptly reflected in the GBPJPY exchange rate. From 140 at the start of 2021, the rate gained sixty points to reach the 200 milestone. This level surpasses the 2015/6 peak (see below). With no resistance above until the 2008 peak, the path is clear for a further rally, albeit with overbought momentum.

Is it a good time to buy Japanese Yen in pounds?

Sterling has been strengthening against the Japanese Yen for some time.

Based on this ongoing long-term trend, it is perhaps not out of the norm to predict further gains for GBP.

Therefore, I would not buy all my Yen in one transaction. Perhaps a better strategy is to buy some on further JPY weakness and when the rate touches major round number levels, like 210, 220 etc.

Of course, while the outlook is negative on JPY, Yen bulls will highlight that the FX rate’s rally is near-term overbought and due for a correction. True, although a fall below 190 is needed to signal that the multi-year uptrend has paused for now.

Will the pound get stronger against the JPY in the second half of 2024?

The Japanese Yen has weakened dramatically over the past 2-3 years. But is this trend set to continue?

If we take a 6-month view on the rate, there are a few factors worth watching. The first is that UK monetary policy may no longer be as restrictive as before. One or two rate cuts may be in the pipeline given other G7 central banks have started the easing process. This may narrow the monetary divergence between the two countries.

The second factor is that the Japanese monetary policy may no longer be that loose. No doubt, the BoJ wishes to foster a higher-inflation environment, but this stance comes at an increasing cost. In particular, the propensity for the JPY to weaken has started to unease some policymakers. The downtrend for JPY is becoming too frantic and violent.

In May, for example, the Japanese central bank acted to limit the downside. Specifically, as soon as USDJPY hit 160 – the highest level in decades – the bank bought up to $60 billion worth JPY in a matter of days to prevent a ‘one-way’ bet on the Yen.

Against this backdrop, it is possible that GBPJPY may still weaken, although the outlook is not as clear as before.

But the bottom line is this: until the BoJ starts to become more hawkish, traders generally assume the JPY will only weaken in the months ahead despite the multiple currency intervention.

What is the GBPJPY forecast in weeks, months, and years?

In light of the above-mentioned economic trends, the market consensus is that GBPJPY will stay where it is now for the time being.

A pullback is envisaged given GBPJPY’s overbought momentum. Many expect the rate to return near 190 in the next few weeks (see below).

However, these are just expectations, which can change quickly given a new set of economic data. Therefore GBPJPY may range in between 200-190 for the time being.

Source: fxstreet.com (June 2024)

• The greenback continues to levitate against the Japanese yen as we head towards a Bank of Japan meeting during the early hours on Friday.
• Ultimately, the Japanese find themselves with a massive amount of debt that they must deal with and therefore the BoJ has no real shot of raising interest rates.
• They may try to jawbone down the US dollar against the Japanese yen, well with interest rates in the United States stubbornly high, it does make sense that we will continue to see traders choose to hang on to the US dollar, as it pays you to hang on to this position over the longer term.

Interest rate differential continues to drive currency pair

As the pair approaches the 157 yen region, it is crucial to understand that we may get a little bit of volatility right around the time that the press conference starts, but at the end of the day the Japanese have some of the highest debt load in the world and therefore cannot handle higher interest rates. The Japanese economy has started its death spiral as population shrinkage is finally catching up with the debt load that the Japanese picked up in the 1980s. Altered loose monetary policy will continue to be a major issue with the Japanese currency and all things Japanese related.

• 

Because of this, just about any currency I can think of has gained against the Japanese yen over the course of the last couple of years, including the lowly Swiss franc. Even the Swiss franc pays interest against the Japanese yen, and now it looks like the market will be paying close attention to the ¥160.00 level where the Bank of Japan intervened several weeks ago. There is not much out there right now to keep the market from overwhelming the Japanese, and I do believe it is only a matter of time before we break through that area. Because of this, i remain long of this USD/JPY pair and will buy into any dip that we get. I have no interest in owning the Japanese yen, nor am I willing to pay the swap at the end of every trading session for the privilege.

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• EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure in the European session on Friday.
• The technical outlook suggests that there is more room on the downside before the pair turns oversold.
• The US Dollar could preserve its strength in case safe-haven flows dominate the action.

Following Wednesday’s upsurge, EUR/USD turned south and registered large losses on Thursday. The pair stays under pressure on Friday and trades at its lowest level since early May slightly below 1.0700.

The negative shift seen in risk mood helped the US Dollar (USD) gather strength during the American trading hours on Thursday. Additionally, the negative impact of soft inflation data on the USD started to fade away as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook amid the hawkish revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections.

Meanwhile, investors’ focus shifts back to political jitters in the Eurozone following the key macroeconomic events in the US, making it difficult for the Euro to find demand. 

In the second half of the day, the US economic docket will feature the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for June. Nevertheless, market participants are likely to ignore this report and stay focused on the risk perception.

At the time of press, Dow Futures were down 0.5% while S&P 500 Futures were losing 0.2%. On the other hand, Nasdaq Futures were last seen posting small daily gains. In case Wall Street’s main indexes push lower heading into the weekend, the USD is likely to continue to outperform its rivals.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly above 30, suggesting that the pair has some more room on the downside before it turns technically oversold. 1.0670 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as next support before 1.0600 (psychological level, static level).

In case EUR/USD manages to stabilize above 1.0700 (psychological level, static level), sellers could look to book profits ahead of the weekend and allow the pair to correct higher. In this scenario, 1.0760 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) could be seen as next resistance before 1.0790-1.0800, where the 100-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages are located.

 

• EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure in the European session on Friday.
• The technical outlook suggests that there is more room on the downside before the pair turns oversold.
• The US Dollar could preserve its strength in case safe-haven flows dominate the action.

Following Wednesday’s upsurge, EUR/USD turned south and registered large losses on Thursday. The pair stays under pressure on Friday and trades at its lowest level since early May slightly below 1.0700.

The negative shift seen in risk mood helped the US Dollar (USD) gather strength during the American trading hours on Thursday. Additionally, the negative impact of soft inflation data on the USD started to fade away as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook amid the hawkish revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections.

Meanwhile, investors’ focus shifts back to political jitters in the Eurozone following the key macroeconomic events in the US, making it difficult for the Euro to find demand. 

In the second half of the day, the US economic docket will feature the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for June. Nevertheless, market participants are likely to ignore this report and stay focused on the risk perception.

At the time of press, Dow Futures were down 0.5% while S&P 500 Futures were losing 0.2%. On the other hand, Nasdaq Futures were last seen posting small daily gains. In case Wall Street’s main indexes push lower heading into the weekend, the USD is likely to continue to outperform its rivals.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly above 30, suggesting that the pair has some more room on the downside before it turns technically oversold. 1.0670 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as next support before 1.0600 (psychological level, static level).

In case EUR/USD manages to stabilize above 1.0700 (psychological level, static level), sellers could look to book profits ahead of the weekend and allow the pair to correct higher. In this scenario, 1.0760 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) could be seen as next resistance before 1.0790-1.0800, where the 100-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages are located.

 

• The British pound has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen, but really at this point in time, it is giving back quite a bit.
• So, what the wait and see whether or not we can keep up the momentum.
• It is worth noting that underneath we have the 200 yen level and that is an area that I think will continue to attract a lot of attention.

But the fact that we broke out to a fresh new high before pulling back also suggests that we are more likely than not going to see a continued move higher, even if we do get a pullback at this point.

• 

Interest rate differential continues to be the major driver

Remember there is a major interest rate differential between the two currencies and therefore you get paid to hang on to this pair and that’s something worth paying attention to. In fact, for some currency traders, it’s the only thing worth paying attention to. The Bank of Japan does have a meeting early on Friday, and unless they do something completely unforeseen and drastic, it’s very likely that it’ll be yet just another blip on the radar on our way higher. I do think this pair continues to climb much higher because quite frankly, the Japanese have so much debt that they cannot sustain higher interest rates.

If we were to break down below the 200 yen level, then we may get a deeper correction toward the 198 yen level, but that should just offer more value. After all, we’ve broken through the area that the Bank of Japan had intervened at previously. I do anticipate a little bit of volatility going a little higher, but really at the end of the day, I do think that we go much higher, and really don’t have a target at this point. I’m just simply following the trend over the longer term, as I recognize that the Bank of Japan is essentially stuck with its monetary policy.

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