The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.23%
0.33%
-0.39%
-0.10%
0.05%
0.03%
-0.12%
EUR
-0.23%
0.11%
-0.57%
-0.32%
-0.19%
-0.18%
-0.35%
GBP
-0.33%
-0.11%
-0.68%
-0.43%
-0.29%
-0.29%
-0.44%
JPY
0.39%
0.57%
0.68%
0.28%
0.42%
0.40%
0.25%
CAD
0.10%
0.32%
0.43%
-0.28%
0.14%
0.13%
-0.02%
AUD
-0.05%
0.19%
0.29%
-0.42%
-0.14%
-0.01%
-0.16%
NZD
-0.03%
0.18%
0.29%
-0.40%
-0.13%
0.00%
-0.15%
CHF
0.12%
0.35%
0.44%
-0.25%
0.02%
0.16%
0.15%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Putin warned the US of a lower threshold for a nuclear strike.
Economists expect UK inflation to increase by 2.2% in October.
The dollar remained steady after gaining over 1.6% last week.
The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a sudden rush to safe-haven assets that weakened the pound against the dollar. Meanwhile, the Trump trade kept the dollar near recent peaks as markets awaited economic data for clues on Fed rate cuts.
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There was some panic in the markets on Tuesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the US of a lower threshold for a nuclear strike. This news came in response to Ukraine’s recent attack on Russia with US missiles. If Russia starts using nuclear power, it could escalate the war in Ukraine and impact the global economy.
After Putin’s warning, investors dumped risky assets like the pound and bought the yen and the dollar. Meanwhile, market participants awaited the UK inflation report due on Wednesday, which might give clues on future BoE policy moves. Economists expect inflation to increase by 2.2% after a 1.7% increase in the previous month.
Meanwhile, service inflation might ease further to 4.3%. Lower service inflation might rekindle bets for a rate cut at the December meeting. On the other hand, if inflation is higher than expected, the pound will rally as rate-cut bets drop.
Meanwhile, the dollar remained steady after gaining over 1.6% last week amid the Trump trade. The looming policy changes in the US have shifted the outlook for Fed rate cuts. At the same time, policymakers have assumed a more hawkish tone, boosting the greenback. There is an increasing likelihood that the Fed will pause in December.
GBP/USD key events today
There will be no key reports from the US or the UK. Therefore, traders will monitor developments in the Ukraine war.
GBP/USD technical price analysis: Downtrend continues after SMA retest
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has bounced lower after retesting the 30-SMA resistance. After consolidation, bears took charge by breaching the 1.2850 key support level. Moreover, the price made a sharp swing below the SMA, indicating a steep downtrend.
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At the same time, the RSI entered the oversold region, suggesting solid bearish momentum. However, it has made a bullish divergence that could lead to a deeper pullback or a reversal. On the other hand, if bearish momentum surges, the price will break below 1.2600.
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USD/JPY falls to a six-day low, breaking through key support levels amidst heightened risk aversion.
Technical indicators suggest potential further declines, with next targets set at Kijun-sen and 200-day SMA at 151.88.
Immediate resistance for USD/JPY is located at the 154.00 level, with significant upper resistance at the recent peak of 156.75.
The Japanese Yen registered solid gains versus the US Dollar in early trading on Tuesday, exchanging hands at 153.83 at the time of writing. Risk aversion sponsored by the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict keeps traders seeking the safety of haven currencies, like the Yen and the Swiss Franc.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The USD/JPY cleared support at the November 7 high at 154.71, opening the door for further losses. The pair achieved a lower low, falling to a six-day bottom of 153.28, which could pave the way to testing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 151.88.
On its way to the 200-day SMA, the USD/JPY must clear the Kijun-sen at 152.80, followed by the 152.00 mark. If cleared up, next would be the 200-day SMA, followed by the 100-day SMA at 151.94.
On the other hand, the USD/JPY first resistance would be the 154.00 figure. Once cleared, the next resistance would be the November 15 peak at 156.75.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
EUR/USD edges lower after closing in positive territory on Monday.
Technical buyers could show interest once the pair stabilizes above 1.0600.
Risk perception could impact the pair’s action in the absence of high-tier data releases.
EUR/USD started the week on a firm footing and climbed above 1.0600 on Monday. In the European morning on Tuesday, the pair struggles to preserve its recovery momentum and trades below this level.
Euro PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.42%
-0.42%
0.23%
-0.50%
-0.80%
-0.51%
-0.48%
EUR
0.42%
0.17%
0.77%
0.04%
-0.23%
0.03%
0.05%
GBP
0.42%
-0.17%
0.61%
-0.14%
-0.41%
-0.14%
-0.13%
JPY
-0.23%
-0.77%
-0.61%
-0.75%
-0.97%
-0.69%
-0.65%
CAD
0.50%
-0.04%
0.14%
0.75%
-0.27%
-0.01%
0.02%
AUD
0.80%
0.23%
0.41%
0.97%
0.27%
0.26%
0.29%
NZD
0.51%
-0.03%
0.14%
0.69%
0.00%
-0.26%
0.02%
CHF
0.48%
-0.05%
0.13%
0.65%
-0.02%
-0.29%
-0.02%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure in the American trading hours on Monday and helped EUR/USD push higher. Falling US Treasury bond yields seemingly weighed on the USD, while the cautious market mood helped the currency limit its losses, capping the pair’s upside.
In the meantime, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf said on Monday that overwhelming evidence would be needed to consider a 50 basis points rate cut in December. “I believe in a cautious and prudent approach, believe the policy is working,” he added, further supporting the Euro.
Early Tuesday, US stock index futures trade marginally higher on the day. A bullish opening in Wall Street could make it difficult for the USD to find demand and open the door for an extended recovery in EUR/USD later in the day.
Eurostat will publish revisions to the October Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data in the European session. The US economic calendar will offer Housing Starts and Building Permits figures for October. These data are unlikely to trigger a noticeable market reaction, allowing the risk perception to continue to influence EUR/USD’s action.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The upper limit of the descending regression channel and the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the two-week-old downtrend form important resistance at 1.0600. In case EUR/USD rises above this level and starts using it as support, the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart could act as interim resistance at 1.0630 ahead of 1.0670 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0720 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).
On the downside, 1.0550 (20-period SMA) aligns as immediate support before 1.0500 (mid-point of the descending channel) and 1.0430 (lower limit of the descending channel).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The British pound has bounced quite nicely from the 1.26 level on Monday morning as it looks like we are finally getting a little bit of a reprieve here from the oversold conditions.
That being said, the US dollar is most certainly overbought at the moment, and I think this move makes sense.
We are starting to see it across against the dollar, but also other ones such as the Australian dollar against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, etc.
The Dollar Got Far Too Overbought
So, with all that being said, I think what we’re seeing here is a little bit of calming down of the dollar bullishness. That does not mean that we are looking at some type of major trend change. I don’t expect that to be the case. I think we get a little bit of a move here, perhaps even most of the week, until we start seeing seller pressure again.
Seller pressure will come in right around the 1.28 level, I suspect, or perhaps just above there at the 200 day EMA. We do get PMI numbers from both manufacturing and services from multiple economies around the world on Friday. So, between now and then, you might have a little bit of profit taking in the greenback.
But I would also say that if we were to break down below the 1.26 level, that could open up the floodgates for another 200 pips. All things being equal, I think you’ve got a couple of days of a relief rally just waiting to get stepped on again. The Federal Reserve, although somewhat dovish, there are questions as to whether or not they can cut in December, and that’s part of what we’ve seen over the last week or so, as the markets are trying to sort out what Jerome Powell and company do next.
USD/JPY outlook weakens as the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike in December increased to 54%.
The Fed’s policy outlook has changed significantly since Trump won.
A BoJ rate hike might give the yen temporary support.
The USD/JPY outlook shows a stronger yen as Ueda’s hawkish remarks increase the likelihood of a December BoJ rate cut. Meanwhile, the dollar remained steady as markets priced a more gradual pace for Fed rate cuts.
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Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda, in his speech on Monday, noted that Japan’s economy was on the right path. Therefore, the central bank would need to hike rates in the near future. His remarks increased the likelihood of a rate hike in December to 54%, boosting the yen. However, Ueda failed to give clear guidance on the possible timing for the next rate hike.
The outlook for Japan’s currency had improved slightly when the Bank of Japan started increasing interest rates and the Fed began cutting. However, the Fed’s policy outlook has changed significantly since Trump won the election. The US central bank might not cut rates as much as previously expected since Trump’s policies might increase inflation.
Consequently, the rate differential between Japan and the US will likely remain wide, weighing on the yen. At the same time, Fed policymakers sounded more hawkish, with Powell stating there was no rush to lower borrowing costs. On the other hand, top officials in Japan are getting worried about a weak yen. Therefore, they are piling pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike rates.
A BoJ rate hike might give the yen temporary support. However, as long as demand and inflation go up with Trump’s administration, the dollar will remain strong, putting pressure on the yen.
USD/JPY key events today
Market participants do not expect any key reports from Japan or the US. Therefore, they might continue with the Trump trade.
USD/JPY technical outlook: Bears break up-channel
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken out of its bullish channel, with bears leading the way. The decline started at the 156.51 resistance level. Price action changed to show strong bearish candles, which broke below the 30-SMA.
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Initially, the price paused at the channel support. However, bears made another attempt at the level and broke below. The price is now facing the 154.00 support level. A break below will allow USD/JPY to reach the 151.74 level.
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I would be a buyer of this pair if we can recapture the ¥164 level. If we get above there, I would put a stop loss at the ¥163 level and aim for the ¥167 level.
Dear my daily analysis of the yen related pairs, it’s worth noting that the euro initially did try to rally, but then it plunged.
Because of this, we are now testing the 200 Day EMA, which of course is an important indicator that a lot of people will pay attention to for the longer-term, and therefore think you get a situation where if the buyers are going to return, it’s probably going to be fairly soon.
All things being equal, this is a fairly ugly candlestick, so it’ll be interesting to see if we can get some of that “mojo back” from the previous move higher.
All things being equal, this is a pair that continues to favor interest rate differentials for the euro, with this being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of people getting involved, as they can get paid at the end of every day to hang on to this pair. Quite frankly, even though the euro itself isn’t necessarily a currency that I liked, it is going to probably fare better than the Japanese yen going forward.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for the EUR/JPY currency pair of course suggests that there is a lot of support in this area, as the ¥163 level is an area that we’ve seen a lot of action at previously. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see the area between they are in the ¥162 level as a major “squishy support level.” By doing so, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of value hunters out there trying to get involved, and therefore I think you’ve got a scenario where people will look for a value play to get long again.
If we were to break down below the ¥161 level, then it’s likely that the pair could drop down to the ¥158.50 level, which is an area that we have seen a lot of support at previously. That would be a target for short sellers, but at this point in time I think they will probably be repudiated long before we get to that area.
EUR/GBP crosses key 0.8350 threshold but faces resistance near 0.8400, with current trading influenced by UK GDP concerns.
Potential upside could see the cross target the 100-day SMA at 0.8413, with further resistance at the 200-day SMA at 0.8475.
Downside risks remain if the pair retreats, with support levels at recent lows of 0.8306 and 0.8260.
The Euro recovered some ground versus the British Pound on Monday as traders digested the latest UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, which hinted the economy is slowing down. The EUR/GBP trades at 0.8359, up by 0.11%.
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The EUR/GBP extended its gains past the psychological 0.8350 area, though buyers remain unable to crack 0.8400. Additionally, sellers leaning to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8360 keep the cross pair from reaching 0.84 despite printing a daily peak of 0.8373.
If bulls clear 0.8373 and 0.84, the next stop would be the 100-day SMA at 0.8413. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-DMA at 0.8475.
Conversely, if EUR/GBP retreats below 0.8350, the first support would be the November 14 low of 0.8306. Once surpassed, the next floor would be the November 11 swing low of 0.8260.
Oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest bulls are gathering momentu, as the RSI cleared its neutral line, turning bullish.
EUR/GBP Price Chart – Daily
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.24%
-0.05%
0.43%
-0.04%
-0.05%
0.28%
-0.23%
EUR
0.24%
0.36%
0.77%
0.32%
0.35%
0.64%
0.14%
GBP
0.05%
-0.36%
0.43%
-0.05%
-0.02%
0.27%
-0.24%
JPY
-0.43%
-0.77%
-0.43%
-0.48%
-0.41%
-0.09%
-0.58%
CAD
0.04%
-0.32%
0.05%
0.48%
0.01%
0.32%
-0.18%
AUD
0.05%
-0.35%
0.02%
0.41%
-0.01%
0.29%
-0.21%
NZD
-0.28%
-0.64%
-0.27%
0.09%
-0.32%
-0.29%
-0.50%
CHF
0.23%
-0.14%
0.24%
0.58%
0.18%
0.21%
0.50%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The British pound initially did try to rally during the trading session on Friday but gave back gains as it looks like we continue to struggle overall.
The 1.2650 level is an area that’s been important multiple times in the past, so I think it does make a certain amount of sense that it could offer support.
But having said that, we have plunged over the last week or so, especially after the election in the United States as the US dollar is king again.
Between the 1.2650 level and the 1.25 level, I think you’ve got an area that could be rather supportive, and a bounce from here would make a certain amount of sense mainly due to the fact that we’ve just sold off so much.
Interest Rates and More
Interest rates in America are to blame as to why the US dollar continues to strengthen as well as investment in US indices, because quite frankly, US indices continue to be the better performing ones in the world from a longer term perspective, dwarfing most others. So with that being said, I think you still have an argument for the US dollar, but whether or not we just fall from here, or if we get another bounce is the real question.
On a move to the upside, I’d be looking to fade any rally, especially if we get anywhere near the 200 day EMA, which is closer to the 1.2850 level. The Bank of England has been somewhat hesitant to cut rates, but they did recently. So it’ll be interesting to see what the trajectory there is. Federal Reserve comments coming out suggesting that perhaps the Americans might have to pause on any rate cuts. So, the game begins. We’ll have to wait and see how this plays out, but it certainly looks very negative at this point.
EUR/USD forecast remains neutral with no clear bias.
Easing Fed’s dovishness keeps the US dollar strong.
Market awaits impetus to break out of current range.
The EUR/USD forecast remains neutral for the day as the economic calendar is light and trading activity is thin. The pair attempted to gain some ground from Friday’s lows but failed to sustain the gains at 1.0570. The broader dollar strength overshadows the recovery in risk assets.
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Geopolitics has again taken center stage with renewed heat from the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Hence, the risk-off sentiment favors the US dollar and keeps pressure on the Euro. Moreover, the fear of a trade war between the European Union and the US has also deteriorated Euro’s outlook.
After Trump’s victory, market analysts have revised their forecast for the US dollar in 2025, expecting a sharp growth in the currency. Fed’s dovish bets have also eased as the rate cut path could be slowed down. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he cannot predict Trump’s policy guidance on the future rate cuts. He also said that the economic indicators have not sent signals to ramp up rates. The inflation is slowly moving towards a sustainable 2% target that could help us attain a neutral rate.
Key Events to Watch
There is no significant event on the calendar today. However, the market participants may be looking for some fresh clues in today’s speech of ECB Chir Lagarde regarding monetary policy.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Rangebound behavior
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
The EUR/USD forecast remains elusive as buyers attempt to stay above the 1.0500 mark but fail to sustain the gains beyond 1.0570. The 4-hour chart shows the price remains in a tight range starting from Nov 13th. The pair is perhaps looking for a fresh impetus to break out of the range on either side.
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The 30-SMA lies above the price, showing a sustained bearish momentum, while the RSI has moved up to 40.0 level which indicates the pair is out of oversold condition and the downside momentum may continue.
Technically, the pair needs acceptance above 1.0600 to initiate a bullish momentum, while breaking the 1.0500 mark may bring strong selling towards the 1.0450 area.
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