The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.08%
0.10%
0.14%
0.17%
0.13%
0.08%
0.20%
EUR
-0.08%
0.02%
0.07%
0.09%
0.04%
-0.00%
0.12%
GBP
-0.10%
-0.02%
0.06%
0.08%
0.03%
-0.02%
0.10%
JPY
-0.14%
-0.07%
-0.06%
0.04%
-0.01%
-0.09%
0.07%
CAD
-0.17%
-0.09%
-0.08%
-0.04%
-0.04%
-0.09%
0.03%
AUD
-0.13%
-0.04%
-0.03%
0.00%
0.04%
-0.04%
0.08%
NZD
-0.08%
0.00%
0.02%
0.09%
0.09%
0.04%
0.11%
CHF
-0.20%
-0.12%
-0.10%
-0.07%
-0.03%
-0.08%
-0.11%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Investing.com — UBS has raised its forecast for the in a note Thursday, expecting significant fluctuations in the exchange rate over the coming year.
The bank now projects the currency pair to reach 155 by December 2024, followed by 152 in March 2025, 150 in June, and 147 in September.
By year-end 2025, UBS targets 145, a revision from its earlier predictions of 147, 143, 140, and 138, respectively.
According to UBS, a near-term surge to 158-160 remains possible, especially if U.S. 10-year yields rise another 30-40 basis points, potentially hitting 4.8%.
“Based on sensitivity analysis over the past three years, a 10bp widening of the US-Japan 10-year yield differential coincides with a one-yen rise in the USDJPY exchange rate,” UBS explained.
If U.S. bond yields indeed spike to 4.8%, the bank says USD/JPY could temporarily reach 160, though they view this level as “unsustainable” and likely to invite Japanese intervention, as observed during similar peaks earlier in 2024.
UBS analysts believe the USD/JPY will face downward pressure in 2025, driven by several factors. A key factor is the anticipated Fed rate-cutting cycle, which UBS expects will lead to lower U.S. yields.
“We think current USDJPY levels are higher than justified by yield differentials,” UBS notes, estimating that the currency pair should trend toward 145-146.
Additionally, trade tensions and a potential Trump-led administration’s focus on a stronger yen may reinforce this trend.
For investors, UBS suggests that any near-term spike toward 160 could be an opportunity to “tactically sell USDJPY.” Over the long term, UBS sees multiple forces supporting a downtrend, with USD/JPY likely to end 2025 at 145.
Traders expect Trump’s policies to drive inflation and pause or significantly slow Fed rate cuts.
BoE’s Catherine Mann noted that inflation might be higher than expected in the medium term.
The GBP/USD forecast shows the dollar at new peaks as the Trump trade overshadows recent inflation figures. As a result, the pound remained weak against the greenback despite hawkish remarks from policymakers.
On Wednesday, the US released its CPI report, which aligned with expectations. Consumer prices increased by 0.2% in October, while core prices increased by 0.3%. Meanwhile, the annual figure rose by 2.6%. Since the increase in inflation was expected, the Fed will likely lower borrowing costs in December.
The dollar initially retreated before climbing as market participants shifted their focus to Trump’s win. Traders expect Trump’s policies to drive inflation and pause or significantly slow Fed rate cuts.
The next significant reports will include wholesale inflation and retail sales. Producer prices are a leading indicator of future consumer prices. Therefore, rate-cut bets might ease if producer prices are higher than expected. The opposite is also true. Meanwhile, retail sales will show consumers’ financial health. High sales will show robust consumer spending, reducing rate-cut bets. On the other hand, low sales will indicate weak consumer spending, solidifying bets for a December rate cut.
Meanwhile, in the UK, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann noted that inflation might be higher than expected in the medium term. Mann is the only policymaker who voted against a rate cut at the last BoE meeting. Market bets for rate cuts in the UK have dropped since the reading of the new government budget. The BoE might only cut rates twice next year.
GBP/USD key events today
Core PPI m/m
PPI m/m
Unemployment Claims
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
GBP/USD technical forecast: Bearish momentum head for the 1.2650 level
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 1.2750 key support to make a new low in the downtrend. Moreover, the price trades well below the 30-SMA, showing bears have a strong lead. At the same time, the RSI is in the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum.
–Are you interested in learning more about AI trading brokers? Check our detailed guide-
The next target for the pair is at the 1.2650 support level. However, after such a steep collapse, bulls might be preparing to return for a pullback to the 1.2750 level or the 30-SMA.
Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!
67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
The yen has lost around 30% of its value against the dollar since 2020.
US Treasury yields and the dollar have risen since Trump won.
US consumer inflation rose as expected in October.
The USD/JPY outlook shows sharp declines in the yen as the dollar scales new peaks due to optimism about Trump’s election win. Meanwhile, top officials in Japan are getting concerned about a weak yen, with some urging the BoJ to hike rates.
According to data from the Bank of Japan, the yen has lost around 30% of its value against the dollar since 2020. This decline has come from low interest rates in Japan, which has created a wide rate differential with the US. However, the BoJ recently shifted to rate hikes before pausing amid concerns about market volatility.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields and the dollar have risen since Trump won the election. At the same time, Fed rate cut expectations have dropped. Therefore, the hope of quickly shrinking the rate gap is fading.
On Thursday, a top opposition leader said that the Bank of Japan should raise rates to 1% to support the weak yen. Moreover, he added that the central bank should be vocal about its plans.
Meanwhile, data on Wednesday revealed that US consumer inflation rose as expected in October. On a monthly basis, it increased by 0.2%, while annually, it rose by 2.6%. Therefore, the Fed will likely lower borrowing costs by 25-bps in December.
However, the outlook for rate cuts in 2025 has changed with Trump as the new president. His policies on taxes and trade will likely be inflationary. Therefore, the Fed might have to pause or cut rates more slowly than expected.
Elsewhere, the US will release wholesale inflation and retail sales figures, which will continue to shape bets on a December Fed rate cut. Moreover, market participants will pay attention to Powell’s speech.
On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has reached a new peak near the 156.02 key level. The price trades well above the 30-SMA, indicating a strong bullish move. Moreover, bullish momentum is strong, with the RSI in the overbought region.
–Are you interested in learning more about AI trading brokers? Check our detailed guide-
Initially, the price had struggled to breach the 154.00 resistance level. However, when it did, bulls confirmed a continuation of the previous bullish trend.
Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!
67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
EUR/JPY edges higher to near 164.40 in Thursday’s early European session.
Further consolidation cannot be ruled out amid the neutral RSI indicator.
The key resistance level emerges at the 164.95-165.00 region; the initial support level is located at 163.64.
The EUR/JPY cross gains traction to around 164.40 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. A lack of clear direction regarding the timing of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) weighs on the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR).
Technically, EUR/JPY hovers around the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) within the descending trend channel on the 4-hour chart. The cross could resume the upside if it can break above the 100-period EMA. However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near the midline, suggesting the neutral momentum of the cross.
The crucial resistance level for EUR/JPY emerges in the 164.95-165.00 zone, representing the upper boundary of the descending trend channel and the psychological level. Any follow-through buying could see a rally to 166.00, the high of November 7.
On the downside, the low of November 13 at 163.64 acts as an initial support for the cross. Decisive trading below the mentioned level could expose 162.90, the lower limit of the trend channel. Extended losses could pave the way to 162.00, the low of October 21 and the round number.
EUR/JPY 4-hour chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
High risk warning:
Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.
Advisory warning:
FOREXLIVE™ is not an investment advisor, FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected news, blogs and other sources of economic and market information for informational purposes and as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically hereby acknowledges clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided on an “as-is” basis as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice, and we do not purport to present the entire relevant or available public information with respect to a specific market or security. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information, or with respect to any of the content presented within its website, nor its editorial choices.
Disclaimer:
FOREXLIVE™ may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
The stronger US dollar policy is bringing more losses to the EUR/USD currency pair, which has reached the support level of 1.0595, the lowest for the currency pair in the forex market during 2024.
The gains of the US dollar are approaching the levels of November 2022, driven by expectations of imposing higher customs tariffs under the Donald Trump administration.
Accordingly, these customs tariffs are expected to lead to raising prices, which limits the ability of the Federal Reserve to cut US interest rates.
Why has the euro been negatively affected since Trump’s victory in the US election?
The financial markets in general and the eurozone in particular have a bad history under Trump’s leadership. Therefore, a new victory for Trump in the US presidential election brings back memories of imposing comprehensive tariffs on imports to strengthen the US manufacturing base, and according to economists, the European Union is particularly vulnerable, as the United States is the European Union’s largest export market. The tariffs of the incoming Trump administration may focus on goods such as cars and steel. This coincides with the economic and political slowdown of the German economy, the largest in the eurozone, which weakens investor appetite for the single European currency – the euro – in the forex trading market.
Furthermore, and according to the results of economic data, the ZEW survey – a key measure of investor sentiment in Germany and the eurozone – showed a sharp decline in sentiment in November with the possibility of imposing tariffs.
Will the euro decline further?
If Trump activates the “America First” trade policy, which poses a particular problem for the eurozone’s economic outlook, the EUR/USD could remain under downward pressure and focus may shift away from reaching oversold levels. Markets and investors will continue to monitor the plans of the new US administration and their impact on global economic growth. consequently, on the policies of central banks worldwide over the next four years.
EUR/USD Technical analysis and signals:
The EUR/USD price breaking the support level of 1.0600 gives Forex traders the idea of whether to buy the Euro after that or wait. According to the performance on the daily chart, the psychological resistance of 1.1000 will remain the most important for the Euro/USD pair to change its direction upwards. Technically, the Euro/USD will remain under downward pressure until the US inflation figures are announced and the vision of the new US administration becomes clear.
Expected Euro/USD buying levels: 1.0575, 1.0480 and 1.0390 respectively.
Expected Euro/USD selling levels: 1.0720, 1.0800 and 1.0865 respectively.
Finally, considering the need to exercise caution and place stop-loss and take-profit orders to ensure the preservation of recommendation levels and benefiting from profit without incurring losses that exceed the trading account’s capabilities.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.
Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.
Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.
Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.
As you can see, the US dollar has rallied again against the Japanese yen as we continue to see a lot of upward pressure in general.
That being said, the 155 yen level is an area that a lot of people would be paying close attention to as it is a large round psychologically significant figure and an area that should cause a little bit of noise.
If we can get above there, then we can really take off to the upside, perhaps to the 158 level. If we pull back from here, I think there are plenty of buyers underneath willing to get involved.
I think you have to keep in mind that the 152.50 yen level then becomes something that could be crucial as well. So, with all of this being said, I do think that we either see a move to the upside, or we see a pullback that offers value that traders should be willing to take advantage of. Keep in mind that the interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar, and it will for the foreseeable future.
Do Not Fight the Trend
So, I just don’t see any reason why you would fight the trend. Underneath, we have the 150 yen level offering a floor in the market, especially now that the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators both are sitting right there and they are crossing, forming the so-called Golden Cross. Either way, I think this is a market that continues to go higher over the longer term and short-term pullbacks, like I said, should end up being thought of as opportunities to pick up cheap US dollars. This will more likely than not continue to be the case, so at this point in time I think it’s only a matter of time before we break out and go much higher. All things being equal, I have no interest in shorting this USD/JPY pair anytime soon, as there are so many reasons for it to go higher.
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.27321, showing a minor decline of 0.12% on the 4-hour chart. Currently sitting below the pivot point at $1.27542, the pair leans bearish, with immediate support at $1.27210. If prices dip further, we could see additional support at $1.26775 and $1.26446.
On the upside, breaking above $1.27542 could invite bullish momentum, with resistance levels at $1.27935 and $1.28311. The 50-day EMA at $1.28064 and 200-day EMA at $1.28937 suggest overhead resistance, adding to the bearish outlook for now.
EUR Pressured by Weak German Sentiment Data
The Euro struggles as German economic sentiment indicators fall short. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment index dropped to 7.4, below the expected 13.2, reflecting weaker investor confidence.
Additionally, the broader Eurozone ZEW sentiment slipped to 12.5, missing forecasts of 20.5. While the German CPI held steady at 0.4% month-over-month, the softening sentiment underscores ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone.
Markets now await the German 10-year bond auction results for further direction.
