The GBPJPY pair failed to settle above the barrier at 206.95 level, forcing it to form corrective waves to settle near 205.75 as appears in above image.
Stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level, to increase the intraday negative pressures on the trading, to increase the chances of testing extra support at 205.20, where breaking it will force it to suffer extra losses by reaching 204.60 and 204.10, while renewing the bullish attempts require providing new positive close above 206.90, to ease the mission of recording the main positive targets that extend to 207.70 and 208.25.
The expected trading range for today is between 205.20 and 206.60
Following the bullish action seen in the first half of the week, EUR/USD corrects lower on Friday and declines toward 1.1550. The pair’s technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum. Financial markets in the US will close early on Black Friday.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.55%
-0.86%
-0.17%
-0.46%
-1.02%
-1.67%
-0.32%
EUR
0.55%
-0.29%
0.38%
0.09%
-0.49%
-1.13%
0.22%
GBP
0.86%
0.29%
0.68%
0.39%
-0.19%
-0.85%
0.52%
JPY
0.17%
-0.38%
-0.68%
-0.28%
-0.90%
-1.64%
-0.15%
CAD
0.46%
-0.09%
-0.39%
0.28%
-0.58%
-1.24%
0.14%
AUD
1.02%
0.49%
0.19%
0.90%
0.58%
-0.66%
0.74%
NZD
1.67%
1.13%
0.85%
1.64%
1.24%
0.66%
1.39%
CHF
0.32%
-0.22%
-0.52%
0.15%
-0.14%
-0.74%
-1.39%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
After struggling to make a decisive move in either direction on the Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, EUR/USD stays on the back foot as markets adopt a cautious stance.
Earlier in the day, the data from Germany showed that Retail Sales declined by 0.3% on a monthly basis in October. This print followed the 0.3% increase recorded in September and came in weaker than the market expectation for an increase of 0.2%, making it difficult for the Euro to find demand.
In the second half of the day, November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany will be featured in the European economic calendar. Analysts expect the monthly CPI to decline by 0.3%. A positive print could support the Euro with the immediate reaction. Nevertheless, investors could refrain from taking large positions based on this data.
It’s worth noting that month-end flows, combined with thin trading conditions, could ramp up the market volatility and cause some irregular movements in financial markets heading into the weekend.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 50- and 100-period SMAs, suggesting an improving short-term bias, while the 200-period SMA flattens at 1.1585 and caps the recovery. RSI (14) holds at 51, neutral and consistent with a range-bound tone. Measured from the 1.1885 high to the 1.1472 low, the 23.6% retracement at 1.1569 has been reclaimed, with the 38.2% retracement at 1.1630 acting as the next resistance above 1.1585.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1569. This level is also reinforced by the 100-period SMA. A daily close below this level could open the door for an extended decline toward 1.1500 (static level, round level) and 1.1470 (static level).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Later this morning, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda could greenlight a December hike, potentially kick-starting a USD/JPY bearish-trend reversal.
USD/JPY has soared 5.63% in the fourth quarter, fueled by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s support for ultra-loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus policies. Previously fading bets on a December rate cut contributed to the fourth quarter rally.
However, growing concerns about the weaker yen pushing import prices higher and eroding Japanese households’ purchasing power have added to the chances of a BoJ hike.
I expect USD/JPY to drop sharply if Governor Ueda focuses on elevated import prices while talking optimistically about wage growth. Markets would likely view such comments as a green light for a rate hike at the December meeting.
Economists continue to flag the weaker yen as a BoJ focal point, aligning with my bearish stance on USD/JPY.
East Asia Econ commented on October’s national inflation figures, stating:
“Headline SPPI inflation was stable in October, but weak for high labor-intensive sectors, while part-time wages were strong, likely on the back of the minimum wage hike. That’s an unclear picture. But right now, with JPY so weak, the BoJ will focus more on headline CPI than these messy details.”
US PMI Data and Fed Speakers to Impact US Dollar Demand
While BoJ Governor Ueda will take center stage in the Asian session, US data and Fed speakers are in focus later on Monday.
Economists forecast the ISM Manufacturing PMI to fall from 48.7 in October to 48.6 in November. A more marked contraction across the manufacturing sector and softer prices would raise expectations of a December Fed rate cut.
November’s data will come ahead of a Fed Chair Powell speech after the market close on Monday, December 1.
Powell’s support for a December rate cut, coupled with a hawkish BoJ Governor, would likely send USD/JPY toward 150, setting up a sharper fall to 140 later in the month.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December cut jumped from 39.1% on November 20 to 86.4% on November 28. Meanwhile, November’s Reuters poll showed a majority of economists predicting a December BoJ rate hike. All panelists expecting a policy adjustment by March 2026.
Looking at the daily chart, USD/JPY remained above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), affirming a bullish bias. However, fundamentals have started to shift from the technical trend, supporting a bearish outlook.
A break below the 155 support level would pave the way to the 50-day EMA and the 153 support level. If breached, the 200-day EMA and 150 would be the next key support levels. Crucially, a break below the 50-day EMA would indicate a bearish trend reversal, signaling a drop toward 140.
The British pound extended its broader bullish tone against the yen, with recent sessions confirming strong upward momentum.
Support and resistance levels remain well-defined, while interest rate differentials and risk appetite continue to underpin longer-term upside bias.
The British pound initially fell against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Thursday but at this point it looks as if it is a market that continues to see a lot of upward trajectory and of course we need to keep in mind that the Wednesday session was a big huge victory for the British pound and it looks like we tried to roll that back but then turned around to show a confirmation of the strength.
If we can break above the high of both Wednesday and Thursday, then we have the British pound reaching towards the 210 yen level over the longer term. If we break it down, I think the 205 yen level will end up being a significant support level, as it was previous resistance. All things being equal, you do get paid at the end of every day to hang on to this pair. So, I think the interest rate differential continues to be a major factor.
Interest Rate Dynamics and Long-Term Bias
Especially as the Bank of Japan has almost no real serious possibility of tightening monetary policy of any significant note, while the British pound, despite the fact that the Bank of England came very close to cutting rates, still has a larger interest rate behind it. And therefore, I think you’ve got a situation where over the longer term, we should continue to just levitate here. Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that there is a risk appetite factor here, and traders typically will buy this pair when they feel more risk on than risk-averse, and of course vice versa. I like buying dips here. I think we go higher.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory near 181.05 during the early European session in Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) amid some verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. Traders brace for the release of Germany’s Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which will be released later on Friday.
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY trades at 181.04. Price holds well above the rising 100-EMA at 174.71, sustaining the medium-term uptrend. The slope of the average has steepened in recent weeks, reinforcing bullish control. RSI at 63.77 is firm but not overbought, easing from 65.56 and indicating momentum has cooled slightly.
Price trades above the middle Bollinger Band and leans toward the upper band at 182.67, while the bands widen, signaling persistent bullish pressure and elevated volatility. A daily close through the upper band could extend the advance, whereas a pullback under 179.41 would expose a support range at 176.15–174.71.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
EUR/USD trades without clear direction around 1.1590 on Thursday, virtually unchanged on the day, as liquidity drops sharply with US markets closed for Thanksgiving. The pair retains a modest bullish bias after facing resistance just above 1.1600 earlier in the European session.
Price action remains limited by the lack of fresh macroeconomic catalysts. The United States (US) is not releasing any major data on Thursday, while US Bond and Equity markets are shut, preventing any directional momentum.
On Wednesday, US figures had briefly supported the US Dollar (USD), with Initial Jobless Claims declining to 216,000 and Durable Goods Orders rising 0.5%, both beating expectations. However, that support faded into the late US session amid risk-positive flows, allowing the Euro (EUR) to close marginally higher.
Monetary policy expectations remain a key driver for EUR/USD. Markets continue to anticipate further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming month, limiting the USD’s ability to extend technical rebounds. Investors consider that the gradual cooling of the labor market and the risks surrounding US growth make it difficult for the Fed to adopt a genuinely hawkish tone.
In the Eurozone, the Accounts of the October meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) showed that Governing Council members broadly view current rates as appropriate. The document highlights an inflation outlook that is “broadly unchanged”, with uncertainty still elevated, reinforcing the idea that the easing cycle has ended. This cautious stance provides some stability to the Euro, though it does not generate strong upside in the absence of new data.
With US markets partially frozen and a very light macro agenda, EUR/USD is likely to remain confined to a narrow range. Traders will wait for liquidity to return before reassessing monetary policy divergence and the US Dollar’s ability to regain traction, or resume its broader bearish trend.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1594, little changed on a daily basis and below the day opening by 8 pips. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) edges higher, suggesting a modestly improving bias. Price holds above the SMA, with the average at 1.1564 offering nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59, endorsing mild bullish momentum. Immediate support is seen at 1.1540, then at 1.1500, while initial resistance emerges around 1.1650.
A descending trend line from 1.1920 has limited gains, with a break area located near 1.1607. A decisive topside extension could target resistances at 1.1729 and 1.1779, while failure to clear trend resistance would leave the pair vulnerable to supports at 1.1500 and 1.1470. With momentum improving but capped by the line, subsequent direction would hinge on acceptance above the break area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
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The British pound has fallen a bit during the trading session on Friday, but it does look like it’s trying to find a little bit of support at the 1.32 level. It is worth noting that we stalled right at the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicator on Thursday. So, a lot is going on here. We’ll see if the downward trajectory continues. Right now, I’m still a bit bearish, although we may find ourselves trying to form some type of range in the short term.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
The euro has shown itself to be slightly negative. After initially rallying against the British pound during Friday’s trading session, we are sitting right at the 50-day EMA and the 0.8750 level, an area that, of course, is a massive previously resistant area. And now you would think there should be a certain amount of market memory here. If we can bounce from here, then we could go back to the 0.8850 level, but without the weight, see whether or not that actually happens. If we fall, then I’ll be paying attention to the 0.87 level, which is the next little cluster of support.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) staged an impressive recovery against the US Dollar (USD), as GBP/USD clinched fresh monthly highs above the 1.3250 psychological level.
Pound Sterling capitalized on the UK Budget relief
Amidst increased odds of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), GBP/USD found its feet, thanks to the UK Autumn Budget and growing expectations surrounding a US Federal Reserve (Fed) December rate reduction.
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed an 85% chance of the Fed lowering rates next month against a 40% probability seen a week ago. Dovish commentary from Fed officials and mixed US data ramped up odds for such a move by the central bank.
New York Fed President John Williams said on November 21 that “US interest rates could fall without putting the Fed’s inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market,” per Reuters.
Earlier in the week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller also favored a rate cut before the end of the year and expressed concerns about a “still fragile” labor market.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also noted that “the Fed shouldn’t hold off on cutting rates now out of fear it may need to reverse course later.”
Later in the week, the Pound Sterling recovery gained traction due to the UK Budget announcement, which eased pressures surrounding fiscal concerns and bolstered GBP/USD.
Citing analysts, Reuters reported, “fears about slow growth, weak productivity and sticky inflation are not reflective of an attractive investment backdrop.”
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ budget was well received by markets despite the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downward revision of the economic growth for 2025.
However, the pair’s upswing remained restricted because of the details of the Budget, entailing back-loaded tax measures.
Next of note for markets remains the monthly ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday, followed by the US ISM Services PMI release.
On Thursday, the weekly Unemployment Claims will be reported ahead of the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, on Friday.
Besides the economic data, speeches from BoE policymakers and updates on the US-Ukraine discussions on the potential peace deal will also be closely followed.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has started to turn higher but remains below the 50- and 100-day SMAs. The 50- and 100-day SMAs extend their decline, while the 200-day SMA rises; price stays below the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs but above the 20-day. The Relative Strength Index (14) prints at 53 (neutral), signaling modest momentum recovery. Measured from the 1.3675 high to the 1.3011 low, the 38.2% retracement at 1.3264 acts as near-term resistance, with the 50% at 1.3343 above.
Bias remains uneven, with improving short-term momentum yet persistent overhead hurdles. The 20-day SMA currently stands at 1.3142 and offers nearby support, while the 200-day SMA at 1.3313 acts as dynamic resistance; the 50- and 100-day SMAs continue to slope lower. RSI holding above 50 would increase the odds of an upside extension, while a pullback would expose the 20-day SMA as the first line of defense.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The USD/JPY pair lacks any firm intraday directional bias on Friday and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses, above the 156.00 mark, through the first half of the European session. Concerns about Japan’s ailing fiscal position, along with the upbeat market mood, offset higher-than-forecast consumer inflation figures from Tokyo. Moreover, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick acts as a tailwind for the currency pair. That said, speculations that Japanese authorities could step in to stem weakness in the domestic currency and the divergent Bank of Japan (BoJ)-US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations cap spot prices.
Government data showed earlier today that the headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% YoY in November, while a gauge, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, came in at 2.8% YoY. Moreover, the core CPI, excluding both fresh food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8%. The data points to sticky inflation in Japan’s capital city and backs the case for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi signaled on Thursday that the monetary tightening must follow an incremental path, forcing investors to reassess expectations for the central bank’s next policy move.
Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet on Friday approved a draft supplementary budget worth ¥18.303 trillion for the fiscal year ending March 2026, stoking concerns about the nation’s fiscal health. The extra budget will be financed by additional bond issuance of at least ¥11.5 trillion. Expectations about the supply of new government debt had pushed longer-dated government bond yields to their highest in more than two decades earlier this month and contributed to the JPY’s relative underperformance. Furthermore, hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal fail to assist the JPY to attract any buying.
The USD, on the other hand, looks to build on Thursday’s modest bounce from an over one-week low and further supports the USD/JPY pair. The upside for the USD, however, seems limited in the wake of dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Comments from several Fed officials recently suggested that another interest rate cut in December is a live option. Moreover, reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to become the next Fed Chair, and is expected to enact US President Donald Trump’s calls for sharply lower interest rates, hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets.
Moving ahead, there isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Friday. Moreover, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing fresh directional bets and positioning for an extension of this week’s retracement slide from the 158.00 neighborhood, or the highest level since mid-January.
USD/JPY 1-hour chart
Technical Outlook
The USD/JPY pair is flirting with the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance, just below mid-156.00s, which, if cleared decisively, should pave the way for additional gains. The subsequent move up could allow spot prices to reclaim the 157.00 mark and climb further toward the 157.45-157.50 intermediate hurdle before aiming to challenge the multi-month high, just ahead of the 158.00 round figure.
On the flip side, the 156.00 round figure could protect the immediate downside. This is followed by the weekly low, around the 155.70-155.65 region, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall to the 155.00 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for an extension of a one-week-old downtrend.
