After the Ethereum Merge, SEC Chair Gensler labeled ETH as a security because of the change in protocol to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). The SEC classification of ETH as a security creates an uncertain future for an ETH-spot ETF market.

On Tuesday, Eric Balchunas stuck to his previous prediction of an ETH-spot ETF approval, saying,

“Re Eth ETF approval, we are holding the line at 25% odds altho tbh it is a very pessimistic 25%. The lack of engagement seems to be purposeful vs procrastination. No positive signs/intel anywhere you look. Personally hope they do approve it but it just ain’t looking good.”

In January, SEC Chair Gary Gensler warned against seeing the SEC approval of BTC-spot ETFs as a precursor to crypto-spot ETFs.

Nonetheless, hopes of an ETH-spot ETF market linger, exposing ETH to spot ETF market-related news and chatter.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC sat well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

A BTC break above the Tuesday (March 26) high of $71,570 would support a run at the March 14 ATH of $73,808. A breakout from the ATH could give the bulls a run at the $75,000 handle.

On Wednesday, BTC-spot ETF market flow data remains the focal point.

Conversely, a fall through the $69,000 support level could give the bears a run at the $64,000 support level.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 60.06, indicates a BTC return to the ATH of $73,808 before entering overbought territory.

Standard Chartered has changed its price prediction for Bitcoin, hinting at a bullish future for the cryptocurrency. It now believes BTC could potentially reach a staggering $150,000 by the end of 2024, a significant increase from its earlier prediction. 

Looking even further ahead, Standard Chartered suggests that Bitcoin could skyrocket to around $250,000 by the end of 2025 before stabilizing. This surge is projected to be fueled by a combination of robust ETF inflows, interest from reserve managers and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which traditionally has had a positive impact on the cryptocurrency’s value​​​​.

As for Ethereum, the bank is also optimistic, expecting it to reach as high as $8,000 by the end of 2024 and $14,000 by the end of 2025. These projections are based on the potential approval of Ethereum ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which could lead to an explosive rally on ETH, similar to what we have seen on Bitcoin.

Analyzing the future of Bitcoin based on its chart, we can observe that BTC has been showing strong performance. The support levels to watch for Bitcoin in this bullish scenario would likely be around the $53,797 and $45,885 marks, which align with the 100 and 200-day moving averages, respectively. 

On the upside, the resistance to break for further growth is at the recent peak around $70,000. A successful Bitcoin consolidation above this level could push the digital gold’s value up thanks to increased market stability. 

Remember, while bank predictions and technical analysis can provide insights into possible future price movements, markets are extremely volatile right now, and every strong move upward may lead to a strong correction, which might nullify your gains. Stay cautious and don’t overuse leverage.

Well, thats it from Ueda. He had the opportunity to say something, anything, to push back against the sliding yen but he hasn’t. He isn’t normally the ‘go to’ official for intervention-type comments but with USD/JPY within just a few spreads of the psychological 152.00 level I thought he might have said something.

Nope.

Maybe the Nikkie is liking the weak yen a little too much for any push back today?

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is trading with a slight positive bias in Tuesday’s Asian session, although it lacks follow-through buying and remains below the mid-1.2600s, or overnight swing high. The fundamental backdrop favors bearish traders and calls for some caution in the area of the recent bounce from 1.2475, or the five-week low reached last Friday.

Last week, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said that expectations of an interest rate cut this year are not unfounded. This came after two members of the Bank of England’s board of governors, who had previously favored a rate hike, changed their stance and decided to keep borrowing costs at 5.25%, which could continue to undermine the British Pound Sterling (GBP). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, paused the previous day’s corrective pullback from the vicinity of its monthly peak amid an upbeat outlook for the US economy. This contributes to limiting the upside for the Pound-Dollar pair.

Moreover, several Fed officials expressed concerns over stagnant inflation and stronger-than-expected US macroeconomic data. Thus, the President of FRB Atlanta Raphael Bostic expects a gradual slowdown in the US economy and inflation and suggests only one rate cut this year.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2650, and if the rebound occurs, take Sell positions.

Origin: FreshForex

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A different outlook on the interest rate path would move the dial. Tamura Naoki will speak at a tumultuous time for the Japanese Yen. The Japanese government has jawboned the Yen for several sessions to prevent further weakening. Suggestions of tightening monetary policy further in H1 2024 could ease selling pressure on the Yen.

Investors should consider comments about interest rate hikes and the possible effects on consumer price inflation. A stronger Yen could counter the influence of rising demand on prices stemming from wage hikes. The net outcome could be a zero-rate path for the Bank of Japan.

However, interest rate differentials remain another consideration. Interest rate differentials favor carry trades to the US dollar, which could continue supporting the USD/JPY at current levels.

In carry trades, investors borrow from the lower interest rate currency, in this case, the Yen. With leverage, traders can significantly enhance earnings by purchasing a currency with a higher interest rate, in this case, the US dollar. While traders enhance earnings, the Yen weakens on selling pressure.

US Economic Calendar: Fed Speakers Pre-Inflation Numbers

On Wednesday, investors must consider Fed commentary ahead of the heavily anticipated inflation numbers.

Recent Fed speeches created uncertainty regarding the timing of a Fed interest rate cut. Deviation from the median FOMC Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate forced investors to recalibrate bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut.

In a recent analysis of the ongoing legal dispute between Ripple Labs and the U.S. SEC, legal expert Fred Rispoli has highlighted a potential significant development in the case, suggesting a 40% likelihood of a pivotal twist.

As became known yesterday, the SEC has requested a substantial $2 billion fine against Ripple. This demand, expected to be detailed in forthcoming documents, marks a critical moment in Ripple’s extended legal battle with the regulatory agency.

Rispoli, a known supporter of XRP, dissected the nuances of the case, emphasizing the seriousness of the SEC’s allegations against Ripple. He noted the importance of the regulator’s obligation to demonstrate actual harm to investors, a point contested by Ripple, which denies the validity of the SEC’s claims and questions the regulator’s adherence to legal standards.

The motion, Rispoli stressed, carries substantial implications for Ripple and the cryptocurrency market. Speculating on possible outcomes, he suggested two scenarios: a favorable settlement post-ruling to which he gives a 40% chance of an extended legal battle with Ripple facing constraints in its operations.

Key points

Examining the motion, Rispoli highlighted several key aspects, including the contentious issue of discounted XRP sales to institutional buyers. He expressed concern over the potential impact of these discounts on XRP’s market dynamics, particularly on retail investors and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Moreover, Rispoli discussed Ripple’s ongoing XRP sales post-litigation, raising questions about the company’s revenue sources and contractual arrangements with institutional buyers. He noted the significance of the court’s impending ruling on the legality of these transactions, signaling potential changes in Ripple’s future business practices.

In an intriguing observation, Rispoli also pondered the impact of institutional buyer discounts on XRP’s price trajectory, hinting at the potential influence of large-scale investors on market dynamics.