I wrote on 15th March that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair. This gave a loss of 0.31%.

2. Long of Wheat. This gave a loss of 1.27%.

Last week’s overall loss of 1.58% is 0.79% per asset.

A summary of last week’s most important data in the market:

1. US Federal Reserve Policy Meeting – a slightly hawkish tilt as the Fed emphasized inflation risk from the secondary effects of the war in the Middle East, which briefly sent the US Dollar higher.

2. US PPI – this was much stronger than expected, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.7% while only 0.3% was widely forecast. This suggests higher inflationary pressure in the USA and contributed to the more hawkish sentiment around the US Dollar.

3. Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting – the Cash Rate was hiked by 0.25% as expected, and the renewed strong focus on inflation was seen as mildly hawkish.

4. Bank of Japan Policy Meeting – a slightly hawkish hold, with one board member pushing for a rate hike of 0.25% now.

5. European Central Bank Policy Meeting – a hawkish hold, as the bank revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward.

6. Bank of England Policy Meeting – a solidly hawkish hold, with analysts now seeing a chance of a rate hike later in 2026.

7. Bank of Canada Policy Meeting – a marginally dovish hold, with the Bank downplaying inflationary risk.

8. Canadian CPI (inflation) – slightly lower than expected, showing an increase of only 0.5% month-on-month while 0.7% was widely expected.

9. Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting – arguably a slightly dovish hold, as the Bank are acting in a way that suggests further cuts to a negative rate are possible.

10. US Unemployment Claims – very slightly better than expected.

11. New Zealand GDP = worse than expected, with growth increasing by only 0.2% when 0.5% was expected.

12. Australia Unemployment Rate – this rose unexpectedly from 4.1% to 4.3%.

13. UK Unemployment Claims – as expected.

Last week’s data had little effect on the market, excepting the boost in the US Dollar and the strengthening of the Euro after the ECB’s hawkish rate hold. Generally, we are seeing hawkish central banks against the backdrop of a potentially inflationary energy price shock generated by the ongoing war in the Middle East. There are open and frightening questions over how this war might end, with the parties on the bring of seriously escalating by targeting critical energy and infrastructure.

The latest developments in the war are:

1. A few hours ago, President Trump issued an ultimatum that if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened by Iran within 48 hours, the USA will start destroying Iranian power plans. This follows several days of attacks on other countries’ infrastructure by Iran, which has been aiming at Israel’s (alleged) nuclear reactor in its South and at the oil refinery in Haifa. It is hard to see an outcome where Iran backs down over this so we can expect US attacks here probably on Tuesday or Wednesday. This threat, let alone its execution, is likely to rattle energy and stock markets.

2. Seven NATO and non-NATO allies have pledged to assist the USA in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, experts believe such a military operation will take a few weeks to be executed.

3. Prediction markets see this war continuing for at least another five weeks, into May, after US troops enter Iran at some point in April. This war is very unlikely to stop quickly, which increases the potential for it to disrupt or influence markets.

Clearly, the USA and Israel are successfully striking all the targets they want to inside Iran, while suffering very few casualties themselves. There is damage to US bases and facilities near the Gulf, and relatively minor damage in Israel, although yesterday’s missile strikes produced an unusually large number of casualties which Israel will see as an escalation to be met.

We are on the brink of a very serious escalation.

The middle east war is likely to remain more influential that any economic data releases which are scheduled over the coming week, especially if it escalates towards increased targeting of infrastructure. The top three items have realistic potential to move the market a bit, especially in the British Pound and in the Australian Dollar.

The coming week’s most important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. UK CPI (inflation)

2. Australian CPI (inflation)

3. USA, Germany, UK Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI

4. US Unemployment Claims

5. UK Retail Sales

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

For the month of March, I made no monthly Forex forecast as the US Dollar was not in a clear trend at the start of the month.

Last week saw no currency crosses with excessive volatility, so I am making no forecast for the coming week.

The Euro was the strongest major currency last week, while the Swiss Franc was the weakest. Directional volatility decreased strongly last week, with only 11% of all major pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%.

Next week’s volatility is likely to increase and might be exceptionally high due to the escalation of the war in the Middle East, which is now threatening power facilities, oil facilities, and desalination plants. This could generate volatility in the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the Canadian Dollar, not to mention stock markets. There could also be unforeseen side effects which might affect other currencies.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

The US Dollar printed a bearish inside bar, although the price remains within a valid long-term trend. There is a lower wick on the candlestick, which is a minor bullish sign. The price has more room to rise before reaching the key resistance level at 101.39.

I think expecting the greenback to rise is still the healthy and correct approach despite this minor retracement, because fundamentals and sentiment still point towards a rising US Dollar, with US Treasury Yields reaching significant highs last week. The Fed itself expects to make one rate cut in 2026, though, although the market does not agree that this is likely to happen.

US Dollar Index Weekly Price Chart

The USD/JPY currency pair gained strongly at the end of last week but could still not regain the high price made earlier in the week, which represented a long-term high. I am long of this currency pair. The only doubts I have is that we have not yet cleared the big round number at ¥160 which has acted as resistance for a long time, and that the technically significant breakout is taking a long time to happen.

The US Dollar lost some ground last week but did better against the Japanese Yen than it did against many other currencies. The Bank of Japan did not look like it is about to start hiking rates very soon at its meeting last week, and that has caused a little underlying weakness in the Yen.

There are excellent fundamental, sentimental, and technical reasons to be long here, but more cautious traders might want to wait for a New York close above ¥160 before going long.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart

Brent Crude Oil is outperforming WTI Crude Oil, mainly because the USA is functionally energy independent (WTI), while Brent Crude is seaborne international trade which is currently more prone to well-founded fears of supply disruption due to the war in the Middle East and Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The war in the middle east is showing signs of escalating as President Trump threatens Iranian power stations if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz by about dawn local time Tuesday. Iran in turn threatened power and desalination plants throughout much of the Middle East, which it has already shown it is prepared to target and in some cases able to target.

These threats, as well as ongoing speculation that the USA might seize Kharg Island as one of its next military steps, are spooking markets – we can be sure that markets will open with energy prices higher and stock markets lower as the new week gets underway, unless there is a credible rumour of ceasefire talks.

Polymarket is showing US ground troops in Iran at some point during April and the USA (plus presumably Israel) ceasing operations in May, meaning the war will probably go on for at least another five weeks.

It is likely to be dangerous to enter now as we could easily see a fast and huge move in the price either up or down. However, the price action does look bullish, so longs will still be dominating orders. I don’t see the Iranians backing down, and I think that means a week of rising crude oil prices.

Despite the mature and very over-extended trend here, and its total reliance on geopolitical developments, I think it will still be a good idea to enter long on bullish price action using a trailing stop (I prefer 3 X ATR (100)). It will probably be wise to use a very small position size maybe one-quarter of the usual, or maybe even one-eighth.

Brent Crude Oil Daily Price Chart

RBOB Gasoline futures rose firmly to close at a new 3-year high last week ending very near the high price, which was made on Friday. Gasoline is trading in blue sky and can keep rising easily.

This is all about what I wrote above concerning Brent Crude Oil. As the price of crude oil rises, so the price of Gasoline is almost certain to rise with high positive correlation between the two assets, as gasoline is derived by refining crude oil.

As I wrote above, it might be too late for a long trade, but it may be wise to try to get in on the ongoing action using a very small position size (respect the very high volatility) and a trailing stop to avoid a catastrophic loss. Remember that what goes up very hard and very fast can come down just the same way.

RBOB Gasoline Futures Daily Price Chart

Last week was poor for the US stock market, with the S&P 500 Index falling quite heavily to reach a new 6-month low, with the daily chart closing below both the SMA 200 and the EMA 200. These are bearish signs, although it is worth pointing out that the market is not down by even 10% from its recent all-time high which it reached just a few weeks ago.

I was correct last week in saying that the price would quickly reach the significant round number at 6,500. What will be closely watched now is whether the price continues to descend below that. If it spends most of the coming week below 6,500 that will be a very bearish sign and point to further losses.

President Trump and Iran’s latest infrastructure threats are likely to further spook the market. Unless there is contrary news, I am sure this Index will open below 6,500 and probably lose some more ground on Monday.

The escalating war in the Middle East is not the only thing weighing on the stock market. It is also very over-extended and overbought and due a significant retracement, and the worrying war was easily enough to give that a tailwind.

Despite the bearish outlook, shorting the US stock market, especially an Index, is not easy, and should only be attempted by experienced traders. A bullish bounce over the coming week, or at least a consolidation and minor gain, is a possible outcome, as we are in a price area where you could expect long-term buyers to step in.

S&P 500 Index Daily Price Chart

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair.

2. Long of Brent Crude Oil but with ¼ of the normal position size.

3. Long of Gasoline but with ¼ of the normal position size.

Created on March 20, 2026

• The 160-yen level is a large figure in the USD/JPY pair at the moment that a lot of people will be watching. If it were to get broken – it would be a big deal.

• So far, it is proving very tough.

The US dollar plunged against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday as we can see the 160-yen level is still being defended. The 160-yen level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be watching because if we could break above there, then we could really start to challenge somewhere near the 160.40-yen level a breakout and a move that tops the highs all the way back to 1990.

With that being the case, I think you have to be very cautious, but you also have to understand that this is a market that will continue to be very noisy.

Interest Rates and Central Bank Divergence

We just had the Federal Reserve come out and sound pretty hawkish and at the same time, we have the Bank of Japan basically doing nothing but suggesting that perhaps we will continue to see very easy rates coming out of Japan.

I just don’t see a situation where this changes, but obviously there was a bit of a reaction to the chatter coming out of Japan. I think this is temporary and I do believe that we will end up seeing a little bit of a bounce.

I like the idea of buying a bounce, but I need to see a little bit of a V-pattern on shorter-term charts to get involved. I’m looking at the 158-yen level as a major support level but even if we break down below there, I think we’re looking at the 156 level as a floor.

I am looking for opportunities. I do believe that it will end up being offered here, but it is going to be noisy. After all we don’t break a 36-year high easily very often, so a little bit of a pullback and another surge higher make quite a bit of sense.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The EURJPY pair ended the last negative attempts by testing 182.00 level, to form a strong barrier, to begin forming bullish waves to settle near 183.20.

Note that the price attempt to regain the bullish bias depends on breaching 184.40 level and holding above it, to open the way for recording new gains that might extend towards 184.85 and 185.45, while the failure of the breach will force it to keep providing unstable mixed trading until surpassing one of the main levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 182.55 and 184.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bearish track

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Supported but Upside Limited

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) rebounded toward 1.33 after the Bank of England delivered a more hawkish-than-expected policy stance, helping offset ongoing pressure from rising energy prices and weak risk appetite.

Sterling found support from higher UK bond yields and shifting rate expectations, although gains remain fragile as markets continue to monitor oil prices and global geopolitical risks.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Near 1.33

The Pound to Dollar rate dipped again to re-test the 1.3250 level in Asia on Thursday amid another surge in energy prices and slide in risk appetite as Middle East energy infrastructure was damaged.

GBP/USD rallied to 1.33 as UK yields moved higher and there was a slightly more hawkish than expected Bank of England policy decision.

Higher bond yields will, however, also increase concerns over fragile UK fundamentals and could trigger a cascade of deteriorating confidence.

According to UoB on a short-term view; “The likelihood of GBP closing below 1.3220 will remain intact as long as 1.3350 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.”

ING is not expecting sustained GBP/USD and forecasts 1.33 at the end of 2026.

As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates at 3.75%. There was a 9-0 vote for the decision compared with talk that two members could back a reduction.

According to the bank; “The MPC is alert to the increased risk of domestic inflationary pressures through second-round effects in wage and price-setting, the risk of which will be greater the longer higher energy prices persist.”

The overwhelming message was a wait and see position given the high degree of uncertainty over the duration of higher energy prices.

Taylor and Dhingra want to resume rate cuts when conditions allow, but Mann noted that a rate hike might be required.

Following the decision, markets are pricing in two 25 basis-point rate hikes this year to 4.25% which helped underpin the Pound.

The UK 10-year bond yield also increased further to 6-month highs above 4.80%. Equity markets remained heavily in the red with a 2.4% slide in the FTSE 100 index.

Energy prices will remain a crucial factor. MUFG commented; “The latest developments have increased the risk of a bigger and more prolonged energy price shock alongside the ongoing closure on the Strait of Hormuz.”

It added; “Overall, we continue to judge that risks remain heavily tilted to the upside for energy prices and the US dollar given the unprecedented hit to global energy supply.”

Overnight, the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75%, in line with consensus forecasts. Inevitably, there was no clear guidance on the outlook while the consensus forecasts by committee members was still for one cut in 2026.

ING expects energy prices will dominate for now, but did add; “If anything, some early signs the Fed is inclined to look through this inflation bump and still expects to cut this year reinforce our call for a weaker USD into year-end.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

2026.03.20 2026.03.20
USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 20.03.26–27.03.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below 159.86 with a target of 156.07–155.17. A sell signal: the price holds below 159.86. Stop Loss: above 159.86, Take Profit: 156.07–155.17.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 159.86 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 161.00–163.00. A buy signal: the level of 159.86 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 159.86, Take Profit: 161.00–163.00.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions from corrections below 159.86 with a target of 156.07–155.17.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above the level of 159.86 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 161.00–163.00.

Analysis

An ascending fifth wave of larger degree 5 is developing on the weekly chart, with wave (1) of 5 forming as its part. Apparently, the third wave of smaller degree 3 of (1) has formed on the daily chart, and a correction has been completed as the fourth wave 4 of (1). The fifth wave 5 of (1) is likely developing on the H4 time frame. Within it, wave i of 5 has formed and a local correction is developing in the form of wave ii of 5. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to drop to 156.07–155.17. The level of 159.86 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 161.00–163.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

Platinum price resumed the previously suggested negative attack yesterday to surpass the suggested negative stations, to suffer big losses by reaching $1872.00 level, to form a quick positive rebound, attempting to recover some losses by targeting $2015.00 level.

Forming an extra barrier at $2045.00 level makes us expect renewing the negative attempts, to expect reaching near $1955.00, then attempt to press on the next support near $1865.00, while its rally above $2045.00 and holding above it will allow it to recover more losses to target $2085.00 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $1865.00 and $ 2040.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

BitcoinWorld

EUR/USD Forecast: Critical 1.1400 Support Holds After ECB’s Decisive Policy Shift

FRANKFURT, March 2025 – The EUR/USD currency pair faces a critical technical juncture as the 1.1400 level emerges as decisive support following the European Central Bank’s latest policy announcement. Market participants now closely monitor whether this psychological and technical barrier will withstand mounting pressure from shifting monetary policy dynamics across Atlantic financial markets.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The 1.1400 Support Confluence

Technical analysts identify the 1.1400 level as a significant support zone for several compelling reasons. Firstly, this price point represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the pair’s 2024 rally. Additionally, the 200-day moving average currently converges near this level, creating a powerful technical confluence. Historical price action further validates this zone’s importance, as it previously served as both resistance in early 2024 and support during the third quarter of the same year.

Market structure analysis reveals that a sustained break below 1.1400 would invalidate the current bullish market structure. Consequently, this would potentially open the door for further declines toward the 1.1250 support zone. Conversely, a successful defense of this level could trigger a technical rebound toward the 1.1550 resistance area. The Relative Strength Index currently hovers near oversold territory, suggesting limited downside momentum in the immediate term.

ECB Policy Outcome: A Detailed Breakdown

The European Central Bank’s March 2025 policy meeting delivered several significant developments that directly impact the euro’s valuation. Most notably, the Governing Council decided to maintain its key interest rates at current levels while announcing a gradual reduction in its balance sheet runoff pace. This decision reflects the ECB’s cautious approach amid persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector.

President Christine Lagarde emphasized during the press conference that the central bank remains data-dependent. She specifically highlighted concerns about wage growth and services inflation. The ECB’s updated economic projections revealed a modest downgrade to 2025 growth forecasts while maintaining inflation targets. Market participants interpreted these communications as moderately dovish, contributing to initial euro weakness.

Comparative Monetary Policy Analysis

The Federal Reserve’s current policy stance creates an important divergence that influences the EUR/USD pair. While the ECB maintains a cautious approach, the Federal Reserve has signaled potential rate cuts in the coming quarters. This policy divergence typically supports the U.S. dollar against the euro. However, recent weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data has tempered expectations for aggressive Fed easing.

The interest rate differential between the Eurozone and United States remains a crucial driver for the currency pair. Currently, the spread favors dollar-denominated assets, creating headwinds for euro appreciation. Market-implied probabilities suggest investors expect the ECB to maintain current rates through mid-2025 before considering any policy normalization.

Market Impact and Trader Positioning

Commitments of Traders reports reveal significant shifts in market positioning following the ECB announcement. Leveraged funds substantially reduced their net long euro positions, reflecting increased caution. Meanwhile, asset managers maintained relatively neutral exposure, suggesting institutional investors await clearer directional signals. The reduction in speculative positioning has contributed to decreased volatility in the currency pair.

Options market analysis provides additional insights into market expectations. Risk reversals, which measure the relative demand for calls versus puts, show increased demand for euro put options. This indicates growing concern about potential euro depreciation. However, the overall options skew remains within historical ranges, suggesting no extreme positioning exists currently.

Economic Fundamentals Supporting the Euro

Despite recent weakness, several fundamental factors continue to support the euro’s medium-term outlook. The Eurozone’s current account remains in substantial surplus, providing structural support for the currency. Additionally, improving economic indicators from Germany, particularly in manufacturing and exports, suggest potential economic stabilization. Energy security improvements across the continent have also reduced external vulnerability.

Inflation dynamics present a mixed picture for policymakers. While headline inflation has moderated significantly, core inflation remains stubbornly above target levels. Services inflation, in particular, continues to demonstrate persistence. The ECB’s cautious approach reflects these complex inflationary dynamics and their implications for monetary policy normalization.

Historical Context and Technical Precedents

Historical analysis reveals that the 1.1400 level has served as a pivotal technical level on multiple occasions. During the 2022-2023 period, this level marked the upper boundary of a multi-year trading range. The successful breach above this level in early 2024 represented a significant technical breakthrough. Now, the retest of this former resistance-turned-support represents a classic technical analysis scenario.

Previous ECB policy announcements provide valuable context for current market reactions. Historically, the euro has demonstrated increased volatility during the 24-hour period following major policy decisions. However, sustained directional moves typically require confirmation from subsequent economic data releases. The current market reaction appears consistent with this historical pattern.

Global Macroeconomic Factors Influencing EUR/USD

Several global macroeconomic developments impact the EUR/USD outlook beyond direct monetary policy considerations. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, continue to influence risk sentiment and currency flows. Additionally, global growth differentials between major economic blocs create fundamental headwinds or tailwinds for currency pairs.

Commodity price dynamics, especially energy prices, significantly affect the euro due to Europe’s import dependency. Recent stabilization in natural gas prices has provided some relief for the Eurozone’s terms of trade. Meanwhile, China’s economic recovery pace influences European export prospects, creating indirect effects on euro demand.

Expert Analysis and Institutional Forecasts

Major financial institutions have published updated EUR/USD forecasts following the ECB meeting. Consensus estimates suggest a range-bound outlook for the coming quarters, with most analysts identifying 1.1400 as a critical support level. Investment banks cite the policy divergence theme as the primary driver of their forecasts, while acknowledging potential catalysts for euro strength.

Technical analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring price action around the 1.1400 level. A daily close below this support would likely trigger further selling pressure, while a successful defense could encourage short covering. Volume analysis suggests institutional participation remains elevated around this technical level, confirming its significance.

Risk Factors and Potential Catalysts

Several upcoming events and data releases could influence the EUR/USD trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting represents a particularly important catalyst, as any shift in U.S. monetary policy expectations would impact the interest rate differential. Additionally, Eurozone inflation data for March will provide crucial information about price pressures.

Political developments in both Europe and the United States create additional uncertainty. European Parliament elections scheduled for June 2024 could influence policy expectations, while U.S. presidential election dynamics may affect dollar sentiment. These political factors add layers of complexity to the fundamental outlook for the currency pair.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD forecast centers decisively on the 1.1400 support level following the European Central Bank’s latest policy decisions. Technical analysis confirms this level’s significance as a confluence of multiple important indicators. While the ECB’s cautious approach creates near-term headwinds for the euro, several fundamental factors provide underlying support. Market participants should monitor price action around this critical level closely, as a sustained break could signal further euro weakness. Conversely, successful defense of 1.1400 support may establish a foundation for potential euro recovery. The coming weeks will provide crucial evidence about which scenario will unfold in global currency markets.

FAQs

Q1: Why is the 1.1400 level so important for EUR/USD?
The 1.1400 level represents a technical confluence including the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the 200-day moving average, and historical support/resistance. This combination creates a particularly significant technical zone that often determines medium-term direction.

Q2: How did the ECB’s latest decision specifically affect the euro?
The ECB maintained interest rates while signaling a slower balance sheet reduction pace. Markets interpreted this as moderately dovish, contributing to initial euro weakness. However, the central bank’s data-dependent approach means future decisions will respond to incoming economic information.

Q3: What would cause EUR/USD to break below 1.1400 support?
A sustained break below 1.1400 would likely require either significantly stronger U.S. economic data, more hawkish Federal Reserve communications, or weaker-than-expected Eurozone inflation and growth indicators. Technical breakdowns typically need fundamental catalysts.

Q4: How does the Federal Reserve’s policy compare to the ECB’s approach?
The Federal Reserve has signaled potential rate cuts while the ECB maintains a more cautious stance. This policy divergence typically supports the U.S. dollar, though recent weaker U.S. data has tempered expectations for aggressive Fed easing.

Q5: What time frame should traders watch for confirmation of direction?
Traders typically watch for a daily or weekly close below 1.1400 to confirm a breakdown. Intraday breaches often prove temporary. The coming weeks will provide important evidence as markets digest the ECB decision and upcoming economic data.

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