EUR/USD consolidates as traders brace for delayed CPI

EURUSD continues to trade inside a tight consolidation range, with the chart showing clear boundaries at 1.16059 resistance and 1.15627 support. This sideways structure reflects hesitation and a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers, especially with the U.S. CPI release being delayed once again.

The delay removes the biggest near-term directional data point for the U.S. dollar. Without it, USD sentiment has softened, and EURUSD has managed to hold onto recent gains despite being capped under resistance. The pair is effectively in “pause mode” — awaiting the next macro catalyst before confirming a directional move.

The broader structure shows that EURUSD has climbed from earlier November lows, but buyers are now waiting for confirmation before attempting to break above the 1.16059 ceiling.

How the CPI delay affects EUR/USD

The U.S. CPI delay is one of the most important factors affecting EURUSD right now:

1. USD weakens on uncertainty

CPI is the single most influential inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve. When its release becomes uncertain, traders pull back on USD long exposure. This provides natural support to EURUSD.

2. Market suspended in “Neutral mode”

Instead of reacting to fresh inflation data, the entire FX market is waiting. Without new information, traders are left managing expectations — and uncertainty typically hurts the USD more than the euro.

3. Reduced momentum across majors

Delays prevent clean trending conditions. That’s why EURUSD continues to compress inside your boxed range. Breakouts normally occur after CPI prints, not before it.

Because of all this, EURUSD’s consolidation makes perfect sense: the dollar can’t strengthen decisively, but the euro also needs real catalysts to extend higher.

Separate narrative: The main driver behind Euro strength

While near-term price action is dominated by the CPI delay, the larger driver of Euro resilience comes from deeper macro shifts:

1. Policy divergence is narrowing

The market sees the Federal Reserve closer to easing than the ECB. This reduces the USD’s yield advantage — historically a bullish condition for EURUSD.

2. Stabilization in Eurozone data

Even small improvements in European sentiment, services activity, and industrial demand help the euro stay supported. Stability is now an advantage, not a weakness.

3. Eurozone risk premium has faded

Energy concerns, bond fragility, and geopolitical pricing have eased compared to previous years. With fewer structural risks, EUR becomes a safer alternative when the USD stumbles.

4. USD weakness is doing heavy lifting

A significant portion of EURUSD’s strength comes from the USD losing appeal amidst delayed data, political noise, and inconsistency in U.S. growth signals.

Together, these create a macro environment where the euro does not need to be strong — it just needs to be stable. And that’s enough to support upward bias when the USD is vulnerable.

Technical outlook on EUR/USD

Reference points from your chart:

• Resistance: 1.16059
• Support: 1.15627
• Upside Target: 1.16688 swing high

EURUSD is coiling between support and resistance as liquidity builds on both sides of the range. Price remains above short-term structure, showing that buyers are still active, but without the catalyst needed to punch through resistance.

The next decisive move is likely to happen once the CPI release is rescheduled and traders get the inflation data necessary to recalibrate the USD outlook.

Bullish scenario

A bullish continuation strengthens if price:

• Breaks and holds above 1.16059,
• Shows strong follow-through without immediate rejection,
• Closes above the mid-range on H1/H4 candles.

A breakout may open the path toward the liquidity pocket at 1.16350 and ultimately 1.16688.

Bullish Targets:

Bearish scenario

Sellers regain control if EURUSD:

• Rejects the 1.16059 ceiling,
• Breaks below 1.15627,
• Shows impulsive downside structure as USD strength returns once CPI is rescheduled.

A breakdown could revisit the next support cluster below 1.15400 or even deeper depending on volatility.

Bearish Targets:

Final thoughts

EURUSD is positioned for a significant move — the question is simply timing. With another CPI delay weighing on the dollar, EURUSD has maintained its short-term bullish tone, but a breakout still needs confirmation. The longer the delay drags on, the more hesitation accumulates in price, which is exactly why the pair is stuck between 1.15627 and 1.16059.

What matters now is not prediction, but reaction.

Let the breakout be the confirmation. Let CPI be the catalyst. And let the chart reveal where sentiment truly sits once uncertainty clears.

Until then, this range remains the battlefield. Patience will reward the disciplined trader.

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Rate Forecast: EUR/USD Needs “Softer Data” for 1.16+

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) briefly broke above 1.16 before steadying as investors positioned for upcoming US employment figures that could determine whether the Federal Reserve delivers another December rate cut.

Analysts, including ING and MUFG, expect further dollar softness if data confirms a slowing labour market.

EUR/USD Forecasts: 10-Day Highs

UoB commented; “The price movements have resulted in an increase in upward momentum, but it is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise. Today, we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range, likely between 1.1560 and 1.1610.”

According to ING; “We’re happy that EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.16 than 1.15, but will probably require some softer US data to justify a move well above 1.16 now.”

The bank has a year-end EUR/USD target of 1.18.

On Wednesday, the House of Representatives is due to vote on the resolution which would allow a re-opening of the government.

There are expectations that it will be passed, although the vote is liable to be close.

ING commented; “If approved, that means the US government can reopen, perhaps on Friday, and that the September NFP jobs report (potentially USD negative) can be released early next week.”

Rabobank added; “The Employment Report for September may be one of the first to be published, because it was originally scheduled for October 3, so it was likely almost or completely finished. This will be lagging data, but it could confirm the continued labor market weakness assumed by the FOMC and shown in other labor market data for September.”

On Tuesday, ADP data released data which indicated private-sector job losses of 11,000 per week during October.

MUFG commented; “The drop in the dollar underlined the sensitivity to private sector employment that could shape the NFP data to be released.”

The bank added; “The jobs data will be key to whether the Fed can continue to cut and is an important element of our view that the dollar can weaken notably as we approach the end of the year.”

At this stage, markets are pricing in around a 63% chance of a December rate cut with the dollar responding to any shift in expectations.

Euro-Zone data has not triggered any positive assessment of the economic outlook.

The German ZEW investor confidence index edged lower to 38.5 for November from 39.3 previously, but wider Euro-Zone data posted a net gain.

Danske Bank commented on the German data; “The report thus indicates that the economy is still at a weak footing and the expectation for an improvement is weakening.”

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The Japanese yen continued its downtrend this week, moving to its lowest level since February this year. The USD/JPY exchange rate was trading at 154.70, up sharply from the year-to-date low of 139.86. So, what next go the yen and will the Bank of Japan intervene?

Why the Japanese yen is failing 

The Japanese yen has come under renewed pressure in the past few months, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in the developed world. 

The main reason for the ongoing crash is the recent political changes in the country that saw Sanae Takaichi become the first woman prime minister. 

Takaichi is widely seen as a growth-oriented premier like Shinzo Abe. She has already called for parliament to provide more stimulus funds worth billions of dollars to boost the economy. Additional funds in the economy normally leads to more currency weakness over time. 

The Japanese yen has also dropped because of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which has been reluctant to hike interest rates as most economists were expecting. Recent inflation numbers show that the country does not need to hike rates as inflation is moving in the right direction.

The most recent report showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.8% in September from the previous 2.7%. Economists expect the upcoming figure to come in at 2.6%, much lower than the January high of 4.0%.

The ongoing Japanese yen has pros and cons for the country. On the positive side, it is making Japan a relatively cheaper destination for international tourists. It is also benefiting its exporters, especially those selling goods to the United States, where Donald Trump left tariffs on all imports.

On the other hand, a weaker yen can lead to higher inflation since the country imports most of its supplies, like crude oil and natural gas. At the same time, the country could see higher tariffs as Trump has always criticized it for maintaining a weak currency.

Japan has tools to intervene when the yen crashes too much. It can hike interest rates or deploy some of its $1.15 trillion in foreign currency to intervene. For example, it intervened last yrear by buying yen and selling dollars.

The USD/JPY exchange rate will also react to developments in the United States, where the government shutdown is expected to end this week. The House of Representatives will vote for this bill today, a move that will reopen the government.

The end of the government shutdown means that top statistics agencies will start publishing economic numbers on the labor market and inflation. 

USD/JPY technical analysis 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD to JPY exchange rate has been in a strong bull run in the past few months. It has jumped from a low of 139.86 in April to 154.55 today. The current level is the highest point since February this year. 

The pair has recently moved above the important resistance level at 153.12, the highest point in October. It formed a golden cross pattern in October as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other.

Top oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have pointed upwards. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the pair keeps rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at 156. A move below the support at 153 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

The post USD/JPY forecast: here’s why the Japanese yen is crashing appeared first on Invezz

Platinum price kept its fluctuation below $1605.00 barrier, forcing it to provide new nixed trading by its continued fluctuation near $1580.00, reminding you that the stability above the sideways track’s support at $1520.00 and the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, these factors make us keep the bullish suggestion, to expect surpassing the current barrier by recording new gains by its rally towards $1642.00 and $1660.00.

While the decline below the current support and providing negative close, will confirm activating the bearish corrective track, to expect suffering several losses by reaching $1485.00 reaching the next support at $1440.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1545.00 and$1642.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Recovery Halts on Dovish BoE Outlook

The British Pound’s recent rebound faltered after disappointing UK jobs data pushed the Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate down toward 1.31, with analysts warning that a softening labour market gives the BoE room to cut rates again next month.

MUFG and ING both see further GBP losses ahead with a December move as increasingly likely.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Recovery Halted

Pound Sterling was hurt on Tuesday by increased speculation of a December Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut following weaker-than-expected UK jobs data.

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped sharply to 1.3120 from highs near 1.3180 ahead of the data with the Pound struggling to secure any benefit from favour able risk conditions and a fresh record high in the FTSE 100 index.

Crucial Pound support remains at 1.30. ING has a year-end GBP/USD forecast of 1.34 as the dollar loses ground.

The UK jobs data was significantly weaker than expected with the unemployment rate increasing to a fresh 4-year high of 5.0% in the three-months to September from 4.8% previously and above consensus forecasts of 4.9%.

The ONS also reported a decline in payrolls of 32,000 for October, matching a final 32,000 retreat for September.

There was also a small net slowdown in underlying wages growth to 4.6% from 4.7%.

According to MUFG; “The data suggests that the downturn in the labour market is getting worse ahead of the Autumn Statement.”

Markets are now more convinced that the BoE will cut rates again in December.

MUFG added; “Loosening labour market conditions should give the BoE more confidence that wage growth will continue to slow dampening upside inflation risks. The weak labour market report supports our forecast for the BoE to cut rates next month.”

There will be potential implications for politics and the budget with pressure for measures to support the jobs market.

Capital Economics UK economist Ashley Webb commented; “The 32,000 fall in payroll employment in October was the eleventh monthly decline over the past year and suggests that businesses continued to trim headcounts after the Chancellor announced the rises in payroll taxes and the minimum wage in last year’s October Budget.”

According to ING; “Now, both inflation and jobs data are starting to point down, and we think the Autumn Budget’s tax hikes will provide the final argument for a cut in December.”

On Monday, the US Senate voted to end the government shutdown and it will now move to the House of Representatives.

Assuming there is a near-term re-opening, there is the potential for some relief surrounding consumer confidence while the focus will switch to postponed data releases with a particular focus on the jobs market.

ING commented; “a resumption of data releases in the US does carry non-negligible downside risks to the dollar. In our view, the latter factors should prevail, as we think markets are underestimating the downside risks for the labour market, US front-end rates and – by extension – the dollar into year-end.”

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Platinum price kept its fluctuation below $1605.00 barrier, forcing it to provide new nixed trading by its continued fluctuation near $1580.00, reminding you that the stability above the sideways track’s support at $1520.00 and the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, these factors make us keep the bullish suggestion, to expect surpassing the current barrier by recording new gains by its rally towards $1642.00 and $1660.00.

While the decline below the current support and providing negative close, will confirm activating the bearish corrective track, to expect suffering several losses by reaching $1485.00 reaching the next support at $1440.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1545.00 and$1642.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Capitol Hill Votes and Fed Outlook

While Japanese data drew market attention early in the Wednesday session, Capitol Hill will take center stage later. The Senate approved a funding package to reopen the government on Tuesday, November 11, passing the bill to the House.

Markets expected a House vote to approve the Senate’s measure, potentially reopening the government this week. However, USD/JPY is exposed to the risk of the House failing to approve the bill, given that it differs from the bill the House had originally passed to the Senate.

Further delays to the US government returning to office could trigger a US dollar sell-off, sending USD/JPY toward 153. On the other hand, the pair could rise toward 155 if the House approves the bill. However, a move toward 155 may draw the Japanese government’s attention and potentially trigger more yen intervention threats, suggesting a choppy session.

While Capitol Hill will take center stage, traders should monitor FOMC members’ speeches. Views on inflation, labor market conditions, and potential economic fallout from the shutdown will influence bets on a December Fed rate cut.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a Fed rate cut in December were finely balanced, rising from 62.4% on November 10 to 67.9% on November 11.

Despite near-term strength, the broader outlook remains bearish as narrowing rate differentials may favor the yen. The Fed remains on a dovish rate path, while the BoJ continues to keep a rate hike on the table, supporting a narrowing in rate differentials in favor of the yen.

USD/JPY Scenarios: Diverging Monetary Policies

• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Hawkish BoJ chatter, intervention warnings, failure by the House to approve the funding bill, and dovish Fed rhetoric could drag USD/JPY toward 153.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Dovish BoJ signals, House passes funding bill, and hawkish Fed rhetoric could send USD/JPY toward 155.

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Under Pressure as BoE Cut Expectations Grow

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) fell on Tuesday after a surprise jump in UK unemployment reinforced speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) could lower interest rates as soon as next month.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3135, down roughly 0.3% on the day.

The Pound (GBP) slipped sharply at the start of the session after figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK unemployment rate rising to 5% in the three months to September, up from 4.8% and above expectations for a smaller increase to 4.9%.

This marks the highest level of joblessness in more than four years and comes alongside evidence of easing wage pressures, with average earnings (excluding bonuses) slowing from 4.7% to 4.6%.

The combination of rising unemployment and weaker pay growth added to signs that the UK jobs market is losing momentum. Investors responded by ramping up bets on a BoE rate cut in December, with markets now pricing in a 73% probability of a move, pushing Sterling lower across the board.

The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, traded in mixed fashion as optimism over progress toward ending the US government shutdown was offset by improving risk appetite that limited safe-haven demand.

The Senate’s approval of a budget bill on Monday evening was seen as a critical step toward resolving the crisis, helping to restore some market confidence. However, with the House of Representatives yet to vote, traders remained cautious.

A potential resolution would reopen the release of delayed federal data, including key employment and inflation figures, which could quickly reshape expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Central Bank Commentary to Steer Direction

Looking ahead, a series of speeches from central bank officials on Wednesday will likely set the tone for the Pound to Dollar exchange rate.

In the UK, remarks from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill will be closely watched after he previously warned about persistent inflation pressures. Should Pill soften his stance following the weaker jobs data, Sterling could extend its decline. Conversely, any suggestion that policymakers remain wary of cutting rates too soon could offer the Pound some relief.

Across the Atlantic, comments from Federal Reserve officials John Williams, Christopher Waller, and Stephen Miran will be in focus. As all three are viewed as relatively dovish, any fresh hints of a softer Fed policy outlook could weigh on the Dollar, limiting its gains against the Pound.

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