– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Slides After Strong US Jobs Report

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) dropped sharply to 1.3375, down around 0.35% on the day, after the latest US labour market report comfortably exceeded expectations.

US non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, more than double consensus forecasts of 85,000, while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance and providing broad support for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Finds Support Near 1.34

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate again found support just above the 1.3400 level on Thursday and rallied to near 1.3460.

The dollar lost ground amid fresh hopes that there could be some form of US-Iran deal. There was an element of relief in the bond market as the 10-year yield drifted lower while equities rallied from intra-day lows, but the PMI construction index slipped further to a 6-year low.

UoB considers that GBP/USD still has work to do; “as long as GBP holds below 1.3470 (‘strong resistance’ level), the risk of GBP breaking below 1.3390 will increase over the next few days.”

ING maintains a positive short-term view on the US currency; “It’s hard to argue against dollar strength at this juncture. Data continues to paint a picture of resilience for the US economy – ADP payrolls and ISM services were both firm yesterday – and fresh US-Iran military exchanges have driven a risk-off shift in global markets.”

ING is also cautious over the Middle East situation; “Yesterday’s House resolution to end the war is meaningful, but it doesn’t block new military operations. It highlights domestic pressure for a peace deal, but markets already understand this, and it has not yet translated into tangible progress in negotiations.”

As far as data is concerned, US initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 in the latest week from 215,000 the previous week while there was a 3.4% annual increase in Challenger job cuts.

The US employment report will be released on Friday. Consensus forecasts are for an increase in non-farm payrolls of around 85,000 from 115,000 the previous month with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%.

According to Bank of America; “We look for another upside NFP surprise (95k forecast vs. 85k consensus) with risks to the upside, and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%. Education & health should continue to lead, followed by trade & transport and leisure & hospitality.”

MUFG commented; “Jobs data today and tomorrow will be key ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first monetary policy meeting and press conference. How influential will Warsh be? And what will his initial leaning be regarding inflation risks?

It added; “Whether tomorrow’s NFP is strong and whether the SoH (Strait of Hormuz)has reopened by then will be important. If the escalation in clashes in the Middle East persist, the pricing of a rate hike this year will increase further and with the data holding up the positive momentum for the US dollar looks set to continue.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

2026.06.05 2026.06.05
USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 05.06.26–12.06.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below 160.70 with a target of 152.10–145.50. A sell signal: the price holds below 160.70. Stop Loss: above 161.20, Take Profit: 152.10–145.50.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 160.70 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 165.00–170.00. A buy signal: the level of 160.70 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 160.20, Take Profit: 165.00–170.00.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 160.70 with a target of 152.10–145.50.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above 160.70 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 165.00–170.00.

Analysis

An ascending third wave of larger degree 3 has formed on the weekly chart, and a bearish correction is developing as the fourth wave 4. On the daily time frame, wave (B) of 4 has presumably been completed, and a descending wave (C) of 4 has started to form. The first wave of smaller degree 1 of (C) is unfolding on the H4 chart. Within this structure, wave i of 1 has been completed, and a local corrective wave ii of 1 has likely formed. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to decline to 152.10–145.50 within wave iii of 1. The level of 160.70 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 165.00–170.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

• The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday to bounce from the 1.16 region.
• The 200-day EMA continues to be a major attractor of markets, with the 50-day EMA above near the 1.1665 level offering resistance.

That being said, I think we’re basically compressed between 1.16 and 1.17, and with the jobs number coming out on Friday, it’s possible that we will just sit still in the meantime, waiting for the interest rates reaction to the number, be it better or worse than anticipated, and then I think that gives you a little bit of a heads-up.

Interest Rates and Market Clarity

It is worth noting that interest rates did slip a bit early during the trading session on Thursday, so that has put a little bit of strength back into the Euro as the US rates are now right around 4.46.

That being said, from a historical perspective, they are a little bit elevated, and when you look at the EUR/USD charts from a longer-term perspective, the 1.14 level underneath is a floor in the market with the 1.1850 level above being a bit of a ceiling.

We are basically right in the middle of that as one would expect when the market is just waiting for some type of clarity, not only from the jobs report, not only from interest rates in the United States and Germany as well, but the reaction of interest rates to any news coming out of the Middle East. We are essentially in a tight range, I think short-term traders will continue to work this 100-pip range until something actually changes.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

– Written by


James Fuller

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: US Dollar Softens Ahead of Key Payrolls Report

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded modestly higher on Thursday as improving geopolitical sentiment reduced demand for traditional safe-haven currencies.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was changing hands at approximately $1.3431, up slightly from the beginning of Thursday’s European session.

The US Dollar (USD) struggled to find support on Thursday as investors responded positively to signs of de-escalation in the Middle East.

Market sentiment improved following confirmation that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire arrangement brokered by the United States, with the deal intended to reduce tensions along the border and pave the way for broader regional negotiations.

The announcement fuelled speculation that diplomatic discussions between Washington and Tehran could soon regain momentum, particularly after Iranian officials threatened to walk away from talks while hostilities in Lebanon continued.

Despite this, losses for the ‘Greenback’ remained relatively limited as investors remained wary of the fragile nature of the ceasefire agreement. In addition, many traders preferred to remain on the sidelines ahead of the release of key US labour market data later in the week.

The Pound (GBP) posted modest gains against the US Dollar on Thursday but otherwise traded in a relatively narrow range against its major counterparts.

With little in the way of notable UK economic releases, Sterling struggled to establish a clear direction through the European session.

At the same time, movement in UK government bond markets was limited, with gilt yields holding broadly steady and offering little support or pressure to the currency.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Payrolls Data to Drive Market Sentiment?

Looking ahead, attention is likely to shift away from geopolitical developments and towards Friday’s highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls report.

The latest labour market figures could influence the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate if they reinforce expectations that the US economy remained resilient throughout May.

A stronger reading may provide support for the US Dollar by encouraging speculation that the Federal Reserve could still consider raising interest rates before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Sterling investors will also be monitoring comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey. Any indication that policymakers remain reluctant to tighten monetary policy further could weigh on the Pound as the week draws to a close.

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• The euro fell during trading on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, mainly centered around interest rates.
• The interest rate market in the United States saw higher rates as we went through the session and that of course favored the U.S. dollar in general.

Ultimately, I do think that we will probably find some type of support, but with the never-ending war in the Middle East, it’s difficult for the interest rate markets to calm down. The fact that the 10-year yield in America is still at 4.5% creates a certain amount of a problem.

Geopolitical Pressures and Technical Ranges

The market participants continue to look at the 200-day EMA as a bit of a magnet as well, so that is something that we need to pay close attention to. The market will remain very noisy. I think it will also unfortunately be influenced mainly by headlines coming out of the Middle East, specifically the United States’ part in that conflict and of course Iran.

This could bring some problems into the European Union as far as energy is concerned, and that might be part of what’s playing the market right now, but really ultimately I think this is a situation where we’re just hanging around the 200-day EMA indicator that a lot of people use for both support and resistance.

The EUR/USD pair is in the middle of a larger consolidation range that has a floor at the 1.14 level and a ceiling at the 1.1850 level. We’re basically right in the middle of that, so I think we’ve got a scenario where we continue to go sideways between now and the all-important jobs number on Friday.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The EURJPY pair failed until this momentum by breaching the barrier at 186.00, forcing it to form mixed sideways trading, to fluctuate near 185.50 level, affected by the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, especially by stochastic exit from the overbought level.

The stability of the support level at 184.85 makes us wait for gathering extra positive momentum, to reinforce the chances of holding above the mentioned barrier, to begin targeting several stations by reaching 186.65 and 187.10, while breaking the support and holding below it will support the dominance of the bearish corrective trend, to expect targeting 184.20 and 183.70 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 185.20 and 186.00

Trend forecast: Sideways 

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate drifted lower on Wednesday as renewed tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3445, down almost 0.2% on the day.

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened through Wednesday’s session as investors sought safety amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the conflict between the US and Iran.

Fresh military exchanges between the two countries raised concerns that diplomatic efforts could stall, increasing the risk of a prolonged conflict and ongoing disruption to global energy markets.

Market participants remained particularly focused on developments around the Strait of Hormuz, with fears that any escalation could further disrupt shipping routes and energy exports.

The cautious mood helped support traditional safe-haven assets, with the US Dollar benefiting from defensive flows.

Additional support came from expectations for a solid US ISM services PMI reading, with investors anticipating further evidence that the American economy remains resilient despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) performed better against many of its peers after revised UK business survey data painted a slightly less negative picture of economic conditions.

The final UK services PMI for May was revised up from 47.9 to 49.3.

Although the reading still signalled contraction and marked the first downturn in activity since April 2025, the revision suggested the slowdown was less severe than initially feared.

Businesses continued to cite elevated energy costs, supply-chain disruption and uncertainty linked to events in the Middle East as key factors weighing on activity and confidence.

Despite this modest support, Sterling struggled to compete with the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar.

GBP/USD Forecast: Bailey Speech and Payrolls Caution in Focus

Looking ahead, developments in the Middle East are likely to remain a major driver of GBP/USD price action.

Any further deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop may continue to support the US Dollar as investors seek defensive assets.

However, market moves could become more restrained ahead of Friday’s closely watched US non-farm payrolls report.

For Sterling, attention will turn to comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

Recent remarks from Bailey have highlighted a cautious approach towards interest rates despite elevated inflation, and any repetition of that stance could weigh on the Pound.

Conversely, if Bailey expresses greater concern about persistent inflationary pressures, Sterling may find some support heading into the end of the week.

• The U.S. dollar rallied again during the trading session on Tuesday as it looks like we are going to test the 160-yen level.

• The 160-yen level is an area that I think a lot of people will be watching very closely as it is an area that the Bank of Japan seems pretty sensitive to.

• The market breaking above there would of course be very bullish, but we also have to keep an eye on that area all the way up to the 160.50-yen level.

This is because not only did the Bank of Japan intervene in that area, but we also have a swing high from 1990 at that area. If we fall from here, it’s likely that the 50-day EMA offers a bit of a floor. After that, we have the 158-yen level.

Ultimately, I think this is a market that will continue to be noisy, and that being said, you have to be very cautious, but I also recognize that the interest rate differential favors the United States dollar so much that if we do start to sell off again, most traders will be looking for some type of bounce that they can take advantage of, perhaps buying on the right-hand side of the V.

Potential Bank of Japan Intervention and the Path Forward

I have no interest in shorting the USD/JPY market longer term either, at least not until something really changes. And with this being said, I think markets are going to continue to be very noisy, but I think ultimately this is a situation where the market could very well see a lot of noise, and if that noise gets really out of control, then you might see sudden action by the Bank of Japan.

But there’s also the argument that perhaps we may see a slow grind higher, which may not trigger the fear that the Japanese once had. After all, they did have to worry about inflation at one point, but it seems like it’s cooling off in Japan, so perhaps we will get the free and clear to go higher. But do keep in mind finding value is probably the best way forward.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The GBPJPY pair formed several bullish waves, benefiting from its main stability above 213.50 support, recording 215.50 level, forcing it to form some sideways trading as it represents an intraday barrier against the bullish trend.

The price might be forced to provide some mixed trading, to keep waiting to gather extra positive momentum, to ease the mission of achieving extra gains by its rally towards the next barrier at 216.10, which represents a confirmation key for the main trend in the futuristic trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 214.75 and 216.10

Trend forecast: Bullish

• The British Pound did initially show signs of strength during the trading session, and while we are still positive, it is obvious to me that we are looking at a pretty significant barrier above that we will have to deal with in the form of 216 Yen.

This will be influenced by the Dollar against the Yen as well, as the US Dollar has recently seen intervention near the 160 Yen level. We are getting close to these major areas that the Bank of Japan, and where it is trying to keep the Japanese Yen somewhat viable. This is a situation where they have to defend, but only can to a point at this juncture.

Analyzing Interest Rate Differentials and Support Levels

But recently we’ve gotten inflation numbers coming out of Japan that show interest, intervening may be slipping a bit, mainly due to the fact that it looks like the inflation numbers in Japan are starting to come down, and that of course helped.

That being said, the British Pound I do prefer over the Japanese Yen due to the wide interest rate differential. I do think that the 214 Yen level is an area that will continue to be supportive, especially with the 50-day EMA sitting just below there.

I’ve got no interest whatsoever in trying to short this pair. I do not pay the swap, and ultimately, I think this is a market that, given enough time, we will have buyers coming in to take advantage of cheap British Pounds anytime they occur in this market, as the Yen is so toxic at this point.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire