According to BitMEX Research, the BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $683.7 million on March 13. Total net inflows were below the record high of $1,045.1 million on March 12. A jump in net outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and a pullback in iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) net inflows impacted the headline number.

GBTC saw net outflows of $276.5 million, up from $79.0 million. IBIT saw net inflows fall from $849.0 million to $586.5 million.

IBIT held the number one spot by net inflows on Mar 12, while Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) retook the second spot. FBTC saw net inflows climb from $51.6 million (Mar 12) to $281.5 million (Mar 13).

However, US economic indicators from Thursday could impact BTC-spot ETF market flows.

US Producer Prices Reduce Bets on an H1 2024 Fed Rate Cut

US producer prices increased by 1.6% year-on-year in February, according to figures on Thursday. In January, producer prices were up 1.0%. Economists forecast a 1.1% increase in producer prices.

The hotter-than-expected numbers reduced bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut, sending US Treasury yields higher. Reducing bets on a Fed rate cut put pressure on riskier assets. BTC fell to a Thursday session low of $68,554 before retaking the $71,000 handle.

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Japan’s
finance minister Suzuki said today
that the
country was “no longer in deflation.” This
is a sharp turnaround from comments from officials previously.
Indeed, it was only Tuesday when Suzuki was reported as saying we
cannot declare deflation as beaten. Suzuki’s comment today is clear
support for the Bank of Japan to tighten policy.

For
a tightening of policy the board at the Bank of Japan will need to
see wage results that support the prospect of sustainable and stable
inflation around its 2% target. The Japan Renko wage news conference
is coming up at 16:15 Tokyo time (0715 GMT and 0315 US Eastern time)
and that will give us some guidance. Do note, however, that while the
wage rise agreed by the large corporations to be reported on at that
news conference today sets the upper limit for corporate Japan as a
whole, UBS has noted that “the amount of pass-through to small and
medium-sized firms will only become evident in the second (22 March)
and third (4 April) rounds of negotiations. The second round in
particular is typically considered crucial, as it will cover over
half of the total number of firms in scope.”

The
BoJ meet on April 18 and 19, and expectations are high for a policy
pivot at this meeting, but given the wage data to come later this
month and also in early April, the April 26 BoJ meeting may be the more
logical option for the pivot. In central bank land, a 5 week gap is
nothing. Having
said this the persistent news flow (JiJi, NHK, Nikkei reports,
amongst others) is for a March rate hike.

From
China today the People’s Bank of China left its medium-term lending
facility (MLF) rate unchanged at 2.5% for a seventh consecutive
month. In addition, the Bank injected 387 billion yuan vs. the 500 bn
maturing. This is the first net cash withdrawal through the MLF
liquidity instrument since November 2022.

At
its daily USD/CNY reference rate setting the rate was 7.0975 vs the 7.2058 expected.
This huge discrepancy of over 10 big figures, nearly 11, is the
biggest in 11 months. The Bank continues to prop up the yuan.

Regional
stocks lost ground following the weakness on Wall Street triggered by
another hot inflation reading (PPI @ 1.6% y/y vs. 1.1% expected).

The USD added to its Thursday gains, USD/JPY got as high as above 148.60 before running out of steam:

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• Ripple could seek exemption from Section 5 of the 1933 Securities Act for XRP sales to accredited US investors.
• There was no fraudulent activity.
• The US lacked a regulatory framework for the US digital asset space.

Hints from the SEC Motion to Compel

The SEC opening brief will highlight whether Ripple continued to breach Section 5 after the complaint. Ripple could face a punitive disgorgement if XRP sales to US institutional investors continued after the complaint.

In February, the court granted an SEC Motion to Compel. Judge Sarah Netburn stated,

“The SEC credibly argues that the District Judge may consider post-complaint conduct when determining whether an injunction is necessary and just.”

Judge Netburn also articulated the court would consider the defendant’s wealth in determining the size of a penalty.

In January, the SEC filed a Motion to Compel, asking the court to order Ripple to provide,

• Financial statements for 2022/2023.
• Post-complaint contracts governing institutional sales.

While the focus remains on the final stages of the SEC vs. Ripple case, SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling could extend the case into 2025.

Significantly, the SEC will unlikely consider XRP-spot ETF applications until after the appeals process.

Events Influencing SEC Plans to Appeal

Beyond the SEC v Ripple case, other events that could influence SEC plans to appeal are,

• The SEC v Coinbase case (COIN): Court ruling on the Coinbase Motion to Dismiss (MTD).
• An Office of Inspector General investigation into crypto conflicts of interest within the SEC.
• US Presidential Election: Republican front-runner Trump has softened his stance on crypto. A Trump victory could end SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s reign over the US crypto market.

XRP Price Action

In the fast-paced and often tumultuous realm of cryptocurrency trading, seasoned trader Peter Brandt has emerged with a unique approach that has caught the attention of the market. Brandt, boasting over four decades of trading experience, has unveiled his secret weapon: the weekly Renko graph.

Brandt’s endorsement of the Renko chart as his primary method for evaluating BTC trends has stirred significant interest among traders. Renko graphs, unlike traditional charts, consolidate small price movements into distinct blocks, offering a lucid portrayal of prevailing market trends.

Hidden gem?

The veteran trader’s confidence in the Renko chart is underpinned by its remarkable accuracy. Previously, he disclosed that over the last few years, the method has only generated five incorrect signals, attesting to its reliability. Notably, one of the latest signals indicated a buying opportunity around the $20,000 mark, a prediction that has since materialized with Bitcoin’s current trading price soaring to $73,000.

The methodology behind Renko charts is both straightforward and potent. By condensing price movements into predetermined blocks or bricks, traders can identify sustained uptrends or downtrends based on specific unit values.

As market participants continue to seek an edge in this dynamic arena, Brandt’s strategy offers a compelling avenue for analysis and decision-making. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues its ascent, now trading at an impressive $73,250 with a market capitalization surpassing $1.4 trillion, and Brandt’s chart remains a focal point of interest. With the Renko graph yet to indicate a downward trend, optimism among traders appears to lean toward the bullish side.