Created on December 26, 2025

• I suspect that the most likely outcome, at least over the next couple of weeks, might be sideways action as we carve out a 350-pip range or so.
• The US dollar has drifted lower against the Japanese yen during early trading on Wednesday, but it is starting to see a little bit of pushback.
• I believe that the 155-yen level is an area that a lot of people will be watching very closely as it could end up being a bit of a floor, especially with the 50-day EMA sitting just below it.

All things being equal, this is consolidation, but it is also a very high level of pricing that we haven’t seen since the beginning of 2025. So, the question now is, are we bumping into a ceiling? I think it is a little early to suggest that at the moment, but it is a possibility so I will be watching.

Market Volatility and Technical Levels

The 158-yen level is an area that offers significant resistance, but again, the 155-yen region offers significant support. The 50-day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people watch, and it sits at 154.50 yen, so that all ties together quite nicely.

The Japanese yen had seen a little bit of volatility after the Bank of Japan raised rates last week, but the reality is, I don’t think most of the market likes that, and they may punish Japan for that. I don’t think the market believes that the Japanese can aggressively raise rates anytime soon, while the Federal Reserve at least could make an argument that some of the most recent data have suggested that maybe they have to be very measured in their rate-cutting cycle.

All things being equal, this is a very noisy market, but I believe that it eventually goes looking to the upside. Even if it doesn’t, I would reset somewhere near the 152-yen level and start to look for support there as the 200-day EMA is in that neighborhood.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on December 26, 2025

• The Euro has drifted a bit lower against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
• All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of upward trajectory and upward momentum.
• The 182 yen level is an area that I think offers a bit of a floor at this point in time, as it had previously been both support and resistance.
• With this being the case, the next support level that we would look at is the 50-day EMA, which sits just above the 180 yen level.

Any pullback at this point in time will more likely than not be interesting for those willing to take advantage of the overall trend, and I do think that it’s only a matter of time before we bounce and go looking to the 185 yen level for a longer-term move.

Interest Rate Differentials and BoJ Policy

Ultimately, the interest rate differential still favors the European currency over the Japanese one, and therefore I think we’ve got a situation where a lot of traders are hanging on to this and collecting that swap at the end of every day. I have no interest in shorting anytime soon, but if we did break down below the 175 yen level, then we would have to think about that.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think remains one that is probably going to move mainly based on the Japanese yen itself, as the Bank of Japan has found itself in a little bit of trouble suggesting that they were going to tighten monetary policy because it appears that the financial markets think that will do nasty things to the Japanese economy, especially considering all of the debt that the Japanese currently hold.

With this and the fact that we’ve been in a nice 45-degree uptrending angle for what seems like a lifetime, I have no interest in shorting, and I do think that we eventually not only hit 185 yen but probably higher.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Position and Upside Risk

In my view, intervention threats will continue to cap USD/JPY upside at 158. Meanwhile, JGB yields would likely bolster yen demand, indicating a negative price outlook. However, the BoJ’s neutral interest rate will be pivotal, given recent concerns about sticky US inflation.

A higher neutral interest rate level, neither accommodative nor restrictive, would indicate a more hawkish BoJ rate path and a narrower US-Japan rate differential. A narrower rate differential would make yen carry trades into US assets less profitable, reversing yen carry trades, sending USD/JPY toward 140 over the longer term.

However, upside risks to the bearish outlook include:

• Dovish BoJ chatter and a 1% neutral interest rate.
• Strong US data.
• Hawkish Fed rhetoric.

These scenarios would weaken the yen and boost demand for the US dollar, sending USD/JPY higher. However, yen intervention warnings are likely to cap the upside at around the 158 level, based on the latest communication.

Read the full USD/JPY forecast, including chart setups and trade ideas.

Conclusion: Focus on the BoJ Neutral Rate

In summary, USD/JPY trends reflect the Japanese government’s focus on forex markets and changing sentiment toward narrowing rate differentials. Market focus will remain on BoJ Governor Ueda and the Fed’s outlook on monetary policy and the BoJ’s view on the neutral interest rate.

A 1.5% to 2.5% neutral rate would indicate more aggressive BoJ rate hikes, supporting the bearish short- to medium-term outlook for USD/JPY. Furthermore, dovish Fed rhetoric will likely send USD/JPY toward 140 in the 6-12 month time horizon.

For more in-depth analysis, review today’s USD/JPY trading setups in our latest reports and consult the economic calendar.

Created on December 25, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bullish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1745 – 1.1680 – 1.1600
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1830 – 1.1880 – 1.1930

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1690 with a target of 1.1820 and a stop-loss at 1.1600.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1840 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1900.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

With the start of the Christmas holiday season, market liquidity is thinning and investor risk appetite is weakening until full market operations resume. Consequently, the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to move within narrow ranges today, Thursday, staying close to its recent performance. According to reliable trading platforms, the Euro rose to 1.1807, breaking through a psychological level, before stabilizing around 1.1778 at the time of writing.

Bullish Scenario: The upward momentum for EUR/USD will strengthen if the price stabilizes above the 1.1800 resistance. As previously mentioned, this is the most critical level to watch for an eventual bullish breakout toward the 1.2000 resistance peak. Recent gains on the daily chart are beginning to push technical indicators into overbought territory, as seen in the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD.

Bearish Scenario: Conversely, for the “bears” to regain control of the general trend, the pair would need to return to the support vicinities of 1.1660 and 1.1500.

Today, No significant economic data releases impacting currency prices are expected.

Trading Advice:

Analysts at TradersUp advise caution when trading in narrow ranges during the annual holiday season to avoid sudden price gaps that could negatively impact open positions.

Will the Euro appreciate in the coming months?

According to currency trading experts, MUFG Bank anticipates strong support for the Euro. They expect increased demand for the Euro from central banks, which will be a significant driver of its appreciation. Also, the bank sees room for increased purchases of official Eurozone sovereign bonds. He noted that: “The supply of sovereign bonds will increase in Europe, and negative yields are certainly a thing of the past. The supply of EU bonds will also increase. The €90 billion loan deal concluded for Ukraine last week will contribute to improved liquidity and a gradual increase in central bank demand.”

Nordea Bank commented on its European Central Bank interest rate forecast, stating: “We remain satisfied with our current baseline forecast of stable interest rates until the second half of 2027, where we expect the ECB to raise interest rates twice by 25 basis points each time.” It added: “The risk of further interest rate cuts has diminished, although the possibility of another cut has not disappeared entirely.”

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Created on December 24, 2025

• British pound rallied during the session on Tuesday to pierce the $1.35$ level.
• At this point, we have to ask questions about whether or not this is a British pound thing or if it’s a US dollar thing.
• Truthfully, it’s the US dollar, I think that’s the bigger mover here, mainly because I am seeing US dollar weakness across the board, and this pair will follow right along with others like the Euro or the Swiss franc, etc.

With that being the case, this is a market that I think will continue to be noisy, but the $1.35$ level is an area that’s been important in the past, and of course, it’s a large round, psychologically significant figure, so I do anticipate that there will be a certain amount of questions asked at this point.

Potential for a Move to 1.37

If we can clear this area, it’s possible that we will end up going to the $1.37$ level. If we turn around and fall from here, it’s really not until we break down below the $1.34$ level that I think we will see a little bit more negative. Keep in mind that at this time of year, we have to worry about liquidity and volume, and that, of course, is a major influence as well.

With that being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of what’s going on with the Federal Reserve and, of course, the fact that the British pound has been a fairly strong performer in relation to the dollar over the last couple of years. Even when the US dollar was so strong, the British pound held up better than most of its contemporaries. Because of this, I’m watching the US dollar across the board, and if it does start to shrink, then this is a place I want to get long of. On the other hand, if the US dollar strengthens, I could short the British pound, but I will probably get more traction out of certain currencies like the Australian dollar or the New Zealand dollar.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on December 24, 2025

• Over the next couple of days, I think we will stay well within this 400-pip range because volume will start to dissipate.
• The US dollar fell significantly during the early hours on Tuesday against the Japanese yen.
• The market is looking like it’s trying to turn things around and show signs of life, and with that being the case, the market may be trying to find some type of range to trade in.

The 154 yen level seems to be massive support, while the 158 yen level seems to be a significant resistance barrier. All things being equal, this is a market that I think is trying to determine what is going to happen with central banks, especially with the Federal Reserve, as traders are starting to bet on more interest rate cuts going into the future.

Normalizing Rates

But at the same time, the Bank of Japan is trying to normalize rates. Whether or not that actually ends up being the case and whether or not they can actually do it to any significant amount remains a question to be answered, but I think we have to look through the prism of a market where you are seeing a positive swap at the end of every day if you’re long.

I think that’s part of what we’ve seen during the trading session on Tuesday as we head towards North America. Traders are trying to turn things around and reach back towards the 158 yen level. Over the next couple of days, I think we will stay well within this 400-point range because volume will start to dissipate, and several central banks are not only going to be closing down the banking system on Thursday for Christmas, but you will also see the Friday session being a major holiday in most of the larger countries as well. After that, you have the week of New Year’s, and that really is kind of messy as well. So I think you’re looking at a 400-point range between now and next year when traders start to throw more liquidity in.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Coffee price surrendered to the negative pressures, forcing it to suffer several losses towards 339.20, facing a strong support base as appears in the above image.

The price stability above this support and stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level might provide a chance to recover several losses by its rally towards 359.80, then wait for facing the moving average 55 near 368.50.

The expected trading range for today is between 338.00 and 359.80

Trend forecast: Bullish