– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Hits 2-Month Best as US Stocks Surge

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) surged to two-month highs above 1.3580, with Sterling emerging as a best buy amid a rally in global equities and improving confidence over easing Middle East tensions.

Improving risk appetite has boosted GBP demand while the dollar remains under pressure, although markets are cautious that resistance around 1.36–1.37 could limit further gains.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Pound Hits 2-Month Highs

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate hit a 2-month peak just above 1.3580 on Tuesday before a limited correction to near 1.3550.

The Pound continued to demonstrate resilience while the dollar lost ground again as markets anticipated a resolution to the Iranian conflict with oil prices posting significant losses. A key element will be whether this optimism is justified and whether the dollar will continue to weaken.

According to UoB; “Further GBP strength would not be surprising, but given the overbought short-term conditions, the next technical target at 1.3645 may not come into view so soon.”

Scotiabank is broadly positive over the GBP/USD outlook; “We see limited resistance between current levels and the mid-Feb peaks around 1.37 and now look to support below 1.3450.”

There are hopes that US and Iran will hold another round of talks as pressure on Iran and the US continues to build.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore commented; “There is a growing expectation that the standoff will soon be resolved, allowing the U.S. administration to pivot towards declaring victory, before stimulating the economy ahead of the midterms.”

ING added; “Markets have grown more confident that the Middle East crisis is moving toward a resolution, with the US and Iran arranging a second round of talks, and Tehran seemingly willing to halt shipments to avoid testing the US naval blockade.”

The bank still expressed significant caution; “Given how unsuccessful the first round of negotiations was last weekend, these dollar levels seem to embed a fair amount of premature optimism. As such, the balance of risks is increasingly skewed to the upside for USD.”

MUFG considers that underlying dollar sentiment has deteriorated; “The failure of the US dollar to advance as much as we expected since the start of the conflict and the emerging signs of increased appetite for selling is an indication of the poor fundamental backdrop for the dollar ahead of the start of the conflict.”

Underlying economic trends will also be an important element and feed into the dollar narrative.

The US NFIB small business confidence index dipped to 95.8 for March from 98.8 previously. According to the NFIB; “the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike.”

Fed Chair nominee Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing is scheduled for April 21st.

At this stage, markets are not pricing in a Fed rate hike with around a 30% chance of at least one cut before year-end. Comments from Warsh will be important for market pricing and a dovish stance would hurt the US currency.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

The GBPJPY pair ended the last bullish rally by reaching 215.77 level, to face %100 Fibonacci extension level, which might form an intraday obstacle against the bullish attempts, to force it form some mixed trading before resuming the bullish trend, and there is a chance for retesting 214.55 level.

While breaching the barrier and holding above it will open the way for targeting more positive stations, to reach 216.20 directly by providing positive momentum that might lead it to reach the next main target near 217.50.

The expected trading range for today is between 214.85 and 216.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price confirmed its surrender to the bullish scenario by its stability yesterday above $2070.00 level, to form a new bullish rally and recording some previously suggested gains by reaching $2145.00 level.

The repeated stability above the moving average 55 near 1995.00, by the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of recording new gains, to reach $2205.00, which might form a new obstacle against the bullish rally, while surpassing this obstacle will ease the mission of achieving extra gains that might extend towards $2290.00 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $2070.00 and 22205.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: 6-Week GBP/USD Best Above 1.35

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) held firm above 1.3400 despite a dip to 1.3380, as renewed Iran tensions and a surge in oil prices tested market confidence.

With geopolitical risks intensifying and volatility rising, Sterling remains range-bound, with traders watching whether GBP/USD can hold support or push back towards the 1.3460 resistance zone.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Survives Initial Retreat

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped to 1.3380 in Asian trading on Monday before a recovery to 1.3425 with market resilience again a key issue.

The dollar gained a lift from renewed fears surrounding the Iran situation. The weekend talks between US and Iranian officials failed to make a breakthrough, increasing concerns that the ceasefire would not hold.

According to UoB; “the price action suggests that GBP has likely entered a rangetrading phase. For the time being, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3270 and 1.3460.”

UBS still expects the dollar will slide later in the year with an end-2026 GBP/USD forecast of 1.40.

After the talks failed to make a breakthrough, President Trump announced that the US would instigate a blockade to stop Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

There was a fresh jump in oil prices on supply fears with Brent jumping close to 8% and just below $100 p/b.

Danske Bank commented on Brent; “It traded above USD110/bbl before the ceasefire announcement last week and there is a clear possibility it will rise back to this level if the sides do not restart talks in the coming days.”

Overall risk appetite was less confident with weaker equities, although the overall impact was limited.

ING commented; “The focus now shifts to whether the naval blockade encourages another round of negotiations, whether the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen try to block the southern end of the Red Sea and what the likes of China make of interference in their oil imports.”
BNP Paribas noted that risks have increased; “We did expect negotiations to be difficult and lengthy but assumed that this weekend’s talks would be the beginning of a process which would, at least, result in a degree of situational stabilisation. This view was clearly misplaced.”
According to Rabobank; “On one hand, US escalation might work. Yet unless Iran were to crumble quickly, the prospect is of an even deeper global energy crisis ahead first.”
BNP did note the political pressure; “we would not be surprised if the negotiations are restarted relatively quickly given the current ceasefire timeline.”
The reaction of central banks will also be an important underlying element for markets, especially with upward pressure on headline inflation.

ING commented; “Away from the geopolitical headlines which will bounce the dollar around this week, the market focus will likely be on central bank reaction functions.”

The UK inflation data for March will not be released until next week, but Bank of England comments will be watched closely.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

2026.04.14 2026.04.14
Japan’s Verbal Intervention Supports Yen. Forecast as of 14.04.2026

Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/

Japan had no need to intervene in currency markets to force USD/JPY bulls to retreat. Verbal interventions were enough. The government bought itself some time and is now reaping the benefits of the US dollar’s weakness. Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan.

Major Takeaways

• USD/JPY quotes decline due to a weaker dollar.
• The Bank of Japan does not plan to raise interest rates in April.
• The yen is not being used as a funding currency.
• Short trades can be considered as long as the USD/JPY pair remains below 159.5.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yen

Investors are increasingly driven by sentiment, reacting to reports of a potential new round of US–Iran negotiations. As a result, the greenback is facing some pressure as a safe-haven asset. On the other hand, oil prices remain high, which is hampering USD/JPY bears. Japan is heavily dependent on energy exports, and its economy will suffer more from geopolitical tensions than the US economy.

The bullish oil market has prompted Japanese analysts to lower earnings forecasts for 113 TOPIX-listed companies. The outlook for US companies looks much better, and capital flows from Asia to the US could become a key driver of the USDJPY rally.

Performance of Carry Trade Strategy

Source: Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, the yen is no longer being used as a funding currency in carry trades. Japanese bond yields are at high levels amid expectations of tighter monetary policy. However, carry trades require low volatility to generate profits properly. Volatility, on the other hand, remains high due to geopolitical tensions.

At the same time, Kazuo Ueda’s dovish rhetoric has disappointed USD/JPY bears. The Bank of Japan governor stated that the regulator would closely monitor developments in the Middle East. However, he did not signal an overnight rate hike at the upcoming BoJ meeting, despite having previously hinted at a tightening of monetary policy. Markets interpreted this as a setback to tightening expectations, with the perceived probability of an April rate hike falling from 55% to 32%.

Probability of Monetary Tightening by BoJ in April

Source: Bloomberg.

Kazuo Ueda has chosen the right moment for his remarks. The US dollar is weakening amid hopes for a resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran. With this in mind, bears could be deprived of an important advantage, and USD/JPY quotes will continue to fall.

The Bank of Japan’s reluctance to continue its cycle of monetary tightening is good news for the Japanese government. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi criticized her staff for saying that lower import prices could be achieved by tightening monetary policy.

The authorities got what they wanted. Through verbal interventions, they tempered USD/JPY bulls without spending a single penny. The government bought time and is now reaping the benefits of the US dollar’s weakness amid the de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting decline in demand for the greenback as a safe-haven asset. Another issue is that oil prices remain elevated, which will slow down the Japanese economy.

Weekly USDJPY Trading Plan

The USD/JPY pair is likely to consolidate within the 158.5–160 range. Only a breakout above or below this range will allow the pair to define its further direction. As long as quotes remain below 159.5, short trades can be opened.

This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate strengthened to 5-week highs at 1.1740 last week before dipping back below the 1.17 level as Middle East developments dominated.

Brent crude dipped sharply after the US and Iran announced a cease-fire, but there was renewed upward pressure on prices on Monday as peace talks failed to secure a breakthrough.

Credit Agricole still sees downward risks for the Euro due to energy stresses and has an end-2026 EUR/USD forecast of 1.13.

Events surrounding the Iran conflict will remain a key short-term market influence. The bank still considers that the Euro will remain vulnerable in the short term amid risks of fresh escalation surrounding the Iran conflict. Crucially, the bank notes that the Euro-Zone economy remains vulnerable from an energy shock, especially if prices increase further.

From a longer-term perspective, Credit Agricole calculates that fair value for EUR/USD based on underlying fundamentals is currently around 1.11 which will tend to act as a barrier to Euro gains.

Even with an element of unease surrounding investor appetite for US assets, Credit Agricole still expects that the dollar will remain the dominant reserve currency.

Copper price resumed the bullish trend, taking advantage of the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, to reach $5.9700 barrier, followed by recording the suggested target in the previous report.

The price attempt to support this barrier supports the chances of targeting new positive stations confirms the importance of waiting for confirming the breach, to avoid any unexpected corrective rebound, while the extra positive stations that are located at $6.0850 reaching $6.2300 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.8800 and $6.0850

Trend forecast: Bullish