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13 03, 2024

BofA: We expect the BOJ to exit NIRP/YCC at the March meeting

By |2024-03-13T19:10:56+02:00March 13, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


BofA projects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to announce its departure from the Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) strategies in its March policy meeting. Factors bolstering a March decision include improved capital expenditure data, significant union wage demands likely to surpass previous years, and reports of advanced discussions on frameworks post-YCC.

Key Points:

  1. Improved CapEx Data: Recent data indicating a rebound in capital expenditure suggests stronger domestic demand, supporting a shift in policy.
  2. Wage Increase Demands: Union wage demands for the fiscal year 2024 are notably higher than last year, potentially leading to wage growth that exceeds BoJ’s expectations and contributing to inflation targets being deemed attainable.
  3. Advanced Framework Discussions: Media reports imply that the BoJ is in the final stages of planning for a monetary policy environment post-YCC, indicating readiness for policy change.
  4. March Meeting Focus: The anticipation for the March 19th meeting is high, with the financial community keenly awaiting BoJ’s decision on ending its longstanding NIRP and YCC policies.

Conclusion:

BofA foresees a significant shift in Japan’s monetary policy landscape, with the BoJ likely to exit its NIRP and YCC frameworks at the upcoming March meeting. This move is underpinned by stronger domestic demand signals, aggressive wage hike demands, and preparations for a new policy framework. A departure from NIRP/YCC could mark a pivotal change in Japan’s approach to achieving its 2% inflation target, with implications for both domestic and global financial markets.

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13 03, 2024

UniCredit Is Looking for Ways To Deploy Its Excess Capital via M&A LeapRate

By |2024-03-13T18:24:01+02:00March 13, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


UniCredit, one of Italy’s premier banking institutions, has been navigating the complex waters of potential acquisitions with stringent criteria outlined by its Chief Executive Officer, Andrea Orcel. Speaking at the Morgan Stanley investor conference in London, Orcel expressed that not utilising a portion of the bank’s significant excess capital for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) would be a missed opportunity and “disappointing.”

Orcel emphasised the importance of business expansion and asserted that acquiring at the right price is preferable to merely distributing excess capital to shareholders. UniCredit stands out in the European banking landscape for its robust capital distribution strategy, incorporating share buybacks and cash dividends.

This approach places the bank among the continent’s most generous regarding returning value to its shareholders. However, Orcel pointed out that in scenarios where suitable M&A prospects do not materialise, UniCredit may have to increase its ordinary capital distribution by an additional €1.5 to €2.0 billion annually.

He noted that such a situation would be less than ideal, as it would indicate a failure to find profitable avenues for investing in the bank’s growth. The CEO envisions a balanced approach, combining thoughtful investment in the business with rewarding shareholders.


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Orcel also addressed the high cost of equity that banks currently face, which acts as a deterrent to lowering standards for potential acquisitions. He highlighted the necessity for any prospective deal to strategically align with UniCredit’s goals and meet rigorous financial criteria.

Specifically, Orcel mentioned that the market must fully trust in any acquisition’s cost benefits and synergies, and the risk-adjusted internal rate of return (IRR) should meet a minimum threshold of 15%. According to Orcel, this disciplined stance is crucial, even if voices suggest the bank should be more flexible.

Throughout his discourse, Orcel conveyed that UniCredit is actively exploring many opportunities, suggesting that the bank’s cautious approach should not be mistaken for inactivity. The extensive review process inevitably leads to much speculation and “noise” in the market.

However, Orcel clarified that unless a potential acquisition perfectly aligns with UniCredit’s stringent criteria—balancing strategic fit with financial prudence—the bank is prepared to hold off. This rigorous strategy aims to temper expectations for those anticipating immediate, speculative actions from UniCredit.



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13 03, 2024

Stablecoin supply jumps to $146bn, biggest since FTX collapse – DL News

By |2024-03-13T18:01:47+02:00March 13, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


  • The stablecoin market capitalisation rebounded to $146 billion, marking a $20 billion increase since August.
  • Tether’s USDT led the growth, surpassing $100 billion in supply.
  • New stablecoins like Ethena’s USDe and Curve’s crvUSD have emerged, offering high yields and innovative features.

Since a low in August, the total stablecoin market capitalisation has bounced back, rising by $20 billion to $146 billion.

This recovery marks a turnaround after the market faced considerable hurdles over the past couple of years.

Stablecoins are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to a reserve asset, such as the US dollar, to minimise price volatility.

An increase in the stablecoin market capitalisation is considered to have a positive impact on the crypto markets as it indicates new money entering the system.

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The biggest contributor to this growth is Tether’s USDT. Tether was able to increase its total supply by over 52% since August, surpassing $100 billion in total circulating supply on March 5.

Tether has said it is solvent and functioning as expected, according to its own attestation. But it has faced questions regarding whether it’s properly maintaining the funds to back the USDT stablecoin.

Still, some users believe that the increase in USDT’s supply was a result of its resilience over the last bear market, with the stablecoin maintaining its peg through serious market turbulence.

Coming onto the scene recently is Ethena’s synthetic dollar stablecoin USDe, exploding from under $5m in total circulating supply on December 10 to over $978 million today.

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Ethena has a strong crypto native backing but also offers users significant yields on stablecoin deposits.

Ethena lets users mint USDe with about $1 in Ether, when typically stablecoins are over-collateralized. It also offers users a high yield on USDe deposits, currently just over a 67% annual percentage yield, in addition to a points campaign.

Points are given out by projects to users for interacting with a protocol, and are generally converted to tokens at a later date.

Popular decentralised exchange, Curve Finance, also launched a stablecoin in May of 2023, dubbed crvUSD. Since launching, the stablecoin has grown dramatically, just breaking an all-time high in circulating supply of $164 million on March 8.

The stablecoin from Curve uses a novel “soft liquidation” mechanism that is designed to reduce losses for users borrowing in volatile market conditions.

Disclaimer: The two co-founders of DL News were previously core contributors to the Curve protocol.

Ryan Celaj is DL News’ New York-based Data Correspondent. Reach out with tips at ryan@dlnews.com.





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13 03, 2024

German40 (DAX) Nears All-Time High: Sell Now Below $17975?

By |2024-03-13T17:37:37+02:00March 13, 2024|Forex News|0 Comments


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German40 (DAX) Nears All-Time High: Sell Now Below $17975?

Arslan Butt3 min read