– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Calm before the BoE Storm

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded in a narrow range on Wednesday, as markets digested mixed signals from the latest US employment data and looked ahead to the Bank of England’s policy announcement.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3069, almost unchanged from the start of Tuesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) lacked a clear trajectory on Wednesday, despite a mildly upbeat ADP employment print.

The report indicated that 42,000 new private sector roles were created in October, swinging back from September’s 29,000 decline and surpassing forecasts of 25,000.

While the figures signalled a partial recovery in hiring, economists noted that gains were uneven across sectors, underscoring lingering weakness in the US labour market.

As a result, investors were quick to revive expectations that the Federal Reserve could favour another rate cut in December, keeping USD upside firmly in check.

The Pound (GBP) gained some light support in early trade following a stronger-than-initially-reported UK services PMI.

October’s final reading was upgraded from 51.1 to 52.3, reflecting improving domestic demand within the UK’s dominant services industry.

Even so, optimism remained tempered as businesses highlighted lingering caution ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget, which continues to cast uncertainty over the outlook for growth.

Nevertheless, Sterling’s advance was limited as investors remained cautious ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate announcement on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecasts: BoE Guidance to Steer Sterling Direction

Looking ahead, the BoE’s policy announcement on Thursday is expected to set the tone for GBP/USD movement through the remainder of the week.

While a rate cut this month cannot be ruled out, most analysts expect the central bank to keep borrowing costs unchanged. Instead, attention will turn to the BoE’s forward guidance, with investors seeking clues on whether policymakers may opt for one final cut before year-end.

Any hint of a dovish outlook could weigh on Sterling, while a more cautious tone may help the Pound regain some lost ground.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar could find near-term support if risk appetite deteriorates, with mounting fears of a correction in equity markets potentially driving investors to favour the safe-haven currency.

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Created on November 05, 2025

• The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Tuesday, testing support near ¥153 after an early rally faded.
• Despite short-term softness, the broader uptrend remains intact as rate differentials continue to favor the dollar.

You can see that the U.S. dollar initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen during trading on Tuesday, but it is struggling. We did fall enough to go looking to the ¥153 level. The ¥153 level is an area that had been a significant resistance barrier and now could end up being a significant support level based on market memory.

If we do in fact see a little bit of a bounce, then it’s likely that the overall uptrend continues, and that does make a certain amount of sense considering that the interest rate differential continues to favor the greenback. The Bank of Japan will more likely than not have to stay somewhat loose with monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve has recently stated at the FOMC press conference that they are not ready to cut rates automatically, at least in December. So, we’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out.

This is a market that won’t go straight up in the air forever, but I do think it goes higher over the longer term. A little bit of a drop and then a bounce opens up the possibility of value hunters coming in and picking up the U.S. dollar, jumping into this overall trend. If we break down below the ¥153 level, then the ¥152 level becomes support as well.

I Won’t Short Here

I have no interest in shorting this pair. The Japanese yen itself is weak against most currencies, and I think the U.S. dollar won’t be any different. All things being equal, I do think that we are going higher. We will probably go looking to the ¥155 level next, but it is going to be choppy and positive overall as the market has been more or less a grind to the upside. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to continue to look for value on dips and take advantage of them.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 05, 2025

• The British pound has broken below key support levels, signaling continued weakness toward 1.30 and potentially 1.2750.
• Despite occasional rallies, resistance near 1.32 and broader rate-cut expectations keep the currency under heavy selling pressure.

The British pound has spent the entire session on Tuesday falling apart as we are now well below the 1.31 level. The 1.31 level is an area that I had mentioned over the last couple of days to show signs of support, but it didn’t. So here we find ourselves going much lower. At this point, the 1.30 level seems to be almost assured.

Going Lower

I believe at this juncture we’re probably even looking at the 1.2750 level before it’s all said and done. That doesn’t mean that it’s going to be easy to get there, and it doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to get there rapidly. But I would assume that we are in a situation where traders are going to continue to look at this as a market that, anytime you see any rally showing a bit of strength or even stability, you have to look at it through the prism of a market that, at the first signs of trouble, you have to be a seller of.

With that being said, I think you have a scenario where sooner or later we do see a big flush lower, but the candlestick on Tuesday may have been something that needs to be pushed back against at least in the short term. I look at the 1.32 level as a significant resistance barrier and most certainly the 1.3268 level, where the 200-day EMA currently sits, as a major resistance barrier. For what it’s worth, we’ve done nothing but fall for the most part since the September FOMC interest rate decision.

As a result, even though people are counting on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, it looks like there’s some serious fear out there, and we just collapsed through a major support level. If you are a little bit aggressive, you could look for a move down to 1.2750, maybe 1.28, based on the measured move of the consolidation that we just absolutely fell through. I’ve got no interest in buying the British pound. It looks like traders are betting on the Bank of England cutting rates soon, and therefore, I think the pound remains under pressure.

Ready to trade the Forex GBP/USD analysis and predictions? Here are the best forex trading platforms UK to choose from.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

slips as tech jitters overshadow stronger data. steadies post-BoJ minutes and ahead of .

DAX Slips as Tech Jitters Overshadow Stronger Data

The DAX, along with its European peers, is opening lower, extending losses for a second day. The negative start follows overnight deep declines in the US and Asia, as caution persists across global markets amid concerns about high valuations in AI-related and tech shares.

Valuation fears resurfaced this week on Wall Street after the record-breaking rally this year, driven by AI. However, warnings of a correction by the CEOs of major U.S. banks, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, fueled concerns, accelerating the move lower.

Stronger-than-expected German data could help stem the sell-off. German factory orders rose 1.1% month on month in September, recovering from a 0.4% decline in August.

Meanwhile, the shows that activity in the service sector in October was stronger than expected, with output revised from the preliminary reading of 54.5 to 54.6. This marked the fastest growth in the sector in two years, supported by a notable increase in new business and contributing to the first rise in employment in the sector in 3 months. The , considered a good gauge of business activity, was also upwardly revised to 53.9. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.

On the corporate front, Siemens Healthineer was the largest loser, dropping over 7% after posting Q4 revenue slightly below expectations, pressured by US tariff imports.

BMW is rising despite a decrease in earnings before tax to €2.3 billion, which contributed to a year-to-date figure of €8 billion. Vehicle deliveries rose by 8.7% year on year, with strong growth in Europe and the US.

DAX Forecast – Technical Analysis

After running into resistance at 24,635 in early August, the DAX has fallen further, breaking below the 50 SMA at 24,000 and spiking to a low of 23,580, which is the rising trendline support. The long lower wick suggests that there was little demand at the lower levels as dip buyers stepped in.

Buyers would need to rise above 24,000 to be on a more stable footing, bringing 24,400 into focus.

Sellers will need to break below yesterday’s low at 23580 and the rising trendline support. A break below here brings 23,400, the 200 SMA, and horizontal support into play.

USD/JPY Steadies Post BoJ Minutes and Ahead of ADP Payrolls

USD/JPY is holding steady after yesterday’s losses, when the yen benefited from safe-haven flows amid the risk-off mood in the broader market.

However, today the picture has stabilised, suggesting that yesterday’s risk-off mood was more of a pause for breath rather than a decisive turning point.

Overnight, the minutes from the Bank of Japan meeting showed caution among board members due to the nation’s prolonged experience with deflation. The more dovish stance is limiting any upside in the yen.

While safe-haven plays have supported the yen, the also rose against its major peers yesterday on the same trade.

The US dollar trades at multi-month highs against its major peers, supported by declining bets on near-term Federal Reserve amid deep divisions among Federal Reserve board members.

Investors and policymakers are contending with a record-long government shutdown, which means U.S. economic data is scarce. As a result, more attention than usual will be on the private ADP payrolls later today, which is expected to show 25,000 jobs after -32k last month.

will also be in focus and as expected to rise to 50.8 up from 50 in September. Stronger data could help lift the US dollar, boosting USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Forecast – Technical Analysis

USD/JPY trades in a rising channel. The price rose to an 8-month high of 154.50 in late October, hitting the upper bound of the rising channel before easing back to test 153.00, the October 9 high. The bullish trend is still intact. Buyers will look to rise above 154.50 to create a higher high, bringing 155 into focus ahead of 156.75.

Sellers will need to break below 153.00 to open the door to a deeper selloff towards 151.

Original Post

The (ETHUSD) price rose in its last trading on the intraday basis, in an attempt to recover some of its previous losses, attempting to offload some of its clear oversold conditions on the relative strength indicators, amid the effect of breaking the critical support of $3,435, this support represents our expected target in our previous analysis, amid the dominance of the main bearish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive minor trend line for this track.

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The EURJPY pair activated the bearish corrective track by reaching the extra support at 177.05, by the above image, we notice suffering some losses by attacking 176.50 level, to form mixed trading by its stability near 176.35.

Note that the continuation of the price fluctuation below the broken support and providing negative momentum by stochastic that supports the chances of resuming the negative corrective attempts, which might target 175.15 level reaching the support of the bullish channel at 174.45.

The expected trading range for today is between 175.15 and 176.65

Trend forecast: Bearish by the stability of 177.05

US Economic Data and Fed Outlook

While traders consider intervention threats and the chances of a BoJ rate hike, US economic indicators could trigger USD/JPY price volatility on Wednesday, November 5. Two key economic reports may affect expectations for a Fed rate cut in December.

ADP Employment Report

Economists forecast the ADP to report employment to rise by 24k in October after falling by 32k in September. A larger-than-expected increase may temper bets on further policy easing in December, potentially sending USD/JPY toward 155.

On the other hand, an unexpected fall in employment could overshadow concerns about inflation and raise bets on a December cut. A more dovish Fed rate path may send USD/JPY toward 150.

ISM Services PMI

While labor market data will influence the Fed’s rate path, services sector data could have a greater impact, given that the sector accounts for around 80% of US GDP.

Economists expect the ISM Services PMI to rise from 50.0 in September to 50.7 in October. A higher PMI reading, combined with rising prices, could support a more hawkish Fed policy stance, sending USD/JPY toward 155. Conversely, a drop below the 50 neutral level and softer services sector inflation may revive expectations of a December cut. A more dovish Fed rate path could push the pair below 153, exposing the 150 level.

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Slides Below 1.15 as Fed Uncertainty Lingers

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate fell to fresh three-month lows below 1.1500 on Tuesday, as a strong US Dollar extended its advance amid renewed risk aversion and persistent concerns over tightening global liquidity.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Fresh 3-Month Lows

The dollar has maintained a firm tone against the Pound and Euro in global markets with the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate dipping to fresh 3-month lows below the 1.1500 level.

There has been a significant setback for equities which hampered the Euro to some extent.

There are also concerns over tighter liquidity conditions which will continue to support the US currency; According to Credit Agricole; “Persistent USD liquidity premium could add to the costs of short-USD hedges and its rate advantage across the board in the near term.”

According to UoB further losses may be limited; “While positive divergence is still apparent, EUR may just have enough momentum to test 1.1490 today before the risk of a recovery increases.”

It added; “We remain optimistic on a rally into year-end to 1.18-1.20, but until US data gives the go-ahead for a rebound, there aren’t other obvious bullish drivers for EUR/USD.”

Overall interest rate trends will remain a key influence, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty over the US outlook.

According to Scotiabank; “It is probably helping the USD and not helping risk sentiment that a cloud of uncertainty has descended over the Fed policy outlook.”

The latest US data suggested that manufacturing remained in contraction territory for October.

ING commented; “The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the US industrial sector remains under pressure from weak growth and tariff-related uncertainty. The one consolation is that inflation pressures appear to be easing, but the Fed hawks will want to see broader evidence of this before backing a December rate cut.”

The latest ADP private payrolls data is due on Wednesday with the data watched closely after a reported payrolls decline of 32,000 last month. Consensus forecasts are for an October increase of around 30,000.

ING commented; “Our short-term fair value model is now showing a 1% undervaluation, and with positioning now much more balanced, the pair can enjoy faster rallies on poor US jobs market news.”

Commerzbank’s FX analyst Michael Pfister noted the divisions within the central bank, but added; “The more dovish members seem to sense an opportunity to take a more dominant stance at the moment.”

According to Pfister; “Therefore, we are less certain than the market that interest rate cuts have really become less likely in the coming year after Jerome Powell’s rather hawkish press conference last week, and whether the USD’s strength in recent weeks is really justified.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Dips as Reeves Warns of Tax Hikes

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slipped below the 1.3100 level to hit fresh 6-month lows near 1.3070.

GBP was undermined on Tuesday by a clear warning from Chancellor Reeves that taxes will be increased this month.

There was also increased speculation over further Bank of England rate cuts this year with Sterling also undermined by weaker equity markets.

GBP/USD Forecasts: 6-month lows

There is notable uncertainty over the dollar outlook, but GBP/USD is at risk of a slide to 1.3000.

Just after Tuesday’s European open, Chancellor Reeves delivered a very unusual pre-budget speech to set out the framework for the November 26th budget and justify the potential decisions, especially on taxes.

There was an attempt to justify higher taxes and clear evidence that Reeves will look to put pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates at a faster pace and create the conditions for lower bond yields.

There was choppy trading in UK bonds with the 10-year yield close to 2025 lows just below 4.40% before trading around 4.42%.

The FTSE 100 index traded around 1.0% lower on the day with weaker risk conditions.

According to Reeves; “As I take my decisions on both tax and spend, I will do what is necessary to protect families from high inflation and interest rates.”

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, commented, “In an unusual address ahead of this month’s Autumn Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves tried to prepare voters for tax hikes by laying out the UK’s economic challenges.”

There will be speculation of targeted measures to cut the cost of living which could include lower taxes on retail energy prices.

There is also a clear intent to get borrowing costs down with lower bond yields and further Bank of England rate cuts.

Markets are pricing in around a 35% chance of a cut this week and the Pound will be vulnerable if expectations of a cut this year continue to build.

The dollar has maintained a firm tone in global markets amid fresh uncertainty over Fed policy. The US government shutdown could also have a greater impact

MUFG commented; “There is no end in sight to the shutdown and the longer this drags on the bigger the economic implication will be.”

Markets are now pricing in around a 70% chance of a further rate cut at the December meeting, but here is a high degree of uncertainty.

MUFG added; “Powell likely wants to avoid appearing as though markets are forcing the Fed to cut. We still argue that the labour market warrants more rate cuts, but the risk is the Fed skips meetings ahead.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts