Created on November 04, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Bearish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1480 – 1.1410 – 1.1350
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1600 – 1.1680 – 1.1770

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1440 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1370.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

In light of persistent downward pressure, the EUR/USD exchange rate appears poised to test the psychological resistance level of 1.14 in the coming days. According to trusted trading company platforms, the Euro seems exposed to further short-term weakness against the US Dollar, and any rallies are likely to be met with renewed selling interest. As the chart shows, gains are capped by a downward trend line, and we do not rule out any minor rise that returns the market to that line, in line with the trading pattern since mid-September.

Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to a level of 35, which supports the bears and aligns with firm downward momentum. Last week saw the exchange rate fall below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating increasing bearish momentum.

The downward target we are monitoring is the 1.14 support, which is a significant horizontal line that has influenced market movement since April, acting as both resistance and support since then.

More recently, this level halted the EUR/USD selling wave in late July, which preceded a sharp rebound. Interestingly, the 1.14 support is also the 200-day EMA level, meaning it is truly a critical level. If it holds, the broader, multi-month neutral phase will remain intact, and a rebound will follow. However, a breakdown here could confirm the end of the uptrend that started at 1.04 in late 2024 and peaked at 1.1918 on September 17.

The Future of Interest Rates Impacts Currency Prices

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision last week was not a significant event, as the central bank was content with its success in pushing inflation to its 2.0% target and found no reason to provide guidance that might excite the markets. With the ECB achieving a rare accomplishment of its kind, the responsibility for managing their economies falls on other central banks. For its part, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week and suggested it might do so again before the end of the year, although it would not provide a convincing commitment to such a move.

Trading Advice:

The EUR/USD downtrend is not over. Therefore, wait for a further decline before considering buying, but do so without risk and by diversifying your trades to avoid reacting to any currency price movements.

According to Forex market trading, this rejection helped boost the US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s decision, and we are still experiencing this momentum. This week is usually important in terms of data, as the first Friday of the new month is typically dedicated to the crucial US jobs report. However, since US politicians seem content with the current partial government shutdown, we will not receive any official statistics this week.

This means that private sector reports must take the lead. With this in mind, we await the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) surveys for the private sector of the US economy in October. Surveys had indicated that the economy was on the verge of stagnation in September, and confirmation of this is likely to strengthen the likelihood of the Fed making further rate cuts, which would hurt the US Dollar’s performance.

However, any signs of economic recovery would keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines and support the dollar. The economic calendar includes the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) due on Tuesday (consensus forecast 49.2) and the services PMI due on Thursday (consensus forecast 51.0). In this regard, a preliminary report from Lloyds Bank indicates that “particular attention will be paid in the report to employment indicators, which may point to further weakness in the labor market, and to the price components, which remain elevated and will be closely watched for any signs of a slowdown.”

Ultimitaly, any slowdown in the data could help the EUR/USD pair halt its selling and potentially pave the way for a recovery.

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Created on November 04, 2025

• The US dollar held steady against the Japanese yen on Monday near the key ¥154 level.
• With strong support near ¥153 and ¥150, buyers remain in control as interest rate differentials continue to favor the dollar.

The US dollar has been fairly quiet against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday, as we hover around the crucial ¥154 level. The ¥154 level has stabilized the market over the last couple of days after we had seen the Thursday session jump to the upside. Short-term pullbacks offer the opportunity of buying the US dollar, especially near the ¥153 level.

Longer-Term Traders Use Dips as Entries

With this being the case, this is a market that I think will end up being an opportunity for longer-term traders to take advantage of the interest rate differential, as the Bank of Japan is almost certainly going to be stuck with loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, the FOMC press conference suggested that there may be no interest rate cuts in December—it just wasn’t done yet, even though many traders had anticipated the Federal Reserve would cut rates multiple times.

This doesn’t mean that it won’t happen, but looking at the overall situation at the moment, it’s likely that we will continue to see plenty of value hunters on dips. If we were to break down below the ¥152 level, then I think at this point we could test the 50-day EMA, which sits right above the ¥150 level. For me, the ¥150 level is the absolute floor in the trend.

At this point, I think we’ve got a situation where we could go looking to the ¥155 level. Ultimately, this is a market that has been bullish for a while, and I think short-term opportunities will continue to present themselves with pullbacks. The interest rate differential allows traders to take advantage of dips and get paid at the end of every day while waiting for the longer-term trade to play out.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 04, 2025

• The euro traded around the 1.15 level on Monday, showing indecision as resistance held firm.
• I remain bearish, expecting potential declines toward 1.14 or even 1.11, with rallies likely to face resistance near the 50-day EMA around 1.1650.

The euro went back and forth during the course of the early hours of Monday as we are hanging around the 1.15 level. The 1.15 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that has been both support and resistance previously. If we break down from there, then the market is likely to go looking at the 1.14 level.

The 1.14 level is an area that’s been important previously and an area where the 200-day EMA currently finds itself. With this being said, I think that being violated to the downside really opens up the downside for the euro, perhaps down to the 1.11 level and beyond. Short-term rallies, I look to sell, and I do believe that the 50-day EMA probably continues to be resistant with the 1.1650 level. Any jump at this point, I think, you just have to look at with suspicion.

FOMC Not Clear

After all, the FOMC interest rate decision—and perhaps more importantly, the press conference—suggests that maybe the FOMC or the Federal Reserve won’t be cutting rates in December. We don’t know yet, but it’s not a given, and that really kind of stunned the market. It’s worth noting that this all started during the September FOMC press conference.

We have dropped pretty significantly since then, losing about 450 pips. All things being equal, short-term rallies, I think, continue to swim upstream. We had broken below the 50-day EMA, and it has offered significant resistance multiple times. And now that we are below that, I think we may eventually try to get to this 200-day EMA.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 04, 2025

• The British Pound opened on Monday slightly lower, maintaining a bearish tone.
• With price action below both major EMAs, I expect further weakness toward 1.30 or even 1.28, as dollar strength and BoE policy concerns weigh on sentiment.

The British Pound has gapped a little bit lower during the open here on Monday as we continue to see an overall negative bias to the market. The 1.31 level is an area that I think a lot of people will be watching for the short term, but if we break down below there, then I think the British Pound drops rather significantly.

The technical analysis is fairly bearish now that we are significantly below the 200-day EMA, and the 50-day EMA is starting to drop toward the 200-day EMA. With that being said, I think we have a situation where traders are going to be more of a “fade the rally” type of group, and therefore, any type of rally that shows signs of exhaustion, I’m going to start shorting. If we break down below the 1.31 level, then the 1.30 level gets targeted, possibly the 1.28 level.

I Don’t Want to Own the Pound

I have no interest in buying the British Pound—not necessarily because I hate the British Pound—it’s just that the US dollar is starting to strengthen against pretty much everything out there, including the British Pound. The British Pound has been a little softer than some of its contemporaries over the last week or so, and as a result, it’s worth noting that traders out there are starting to think that perhaps the Bank of England is going to have to loosen monetary policy. With that being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see the pound suffer, especially against the US dollar, after the FOMC press conference suggested that we don’t necessarily count on an interest rate cut in December coming out of Washington.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The GBPJPY pair didn’t move anything since yesterday, forming sideways trading by its stability near 202.30, affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, while its positive stability above the initial main support at 200.45 and attempt to form extra support at 201.70 level, these factors makes us keep the bullish suggestion, which might target 203.95 level and surpassing it will make the price record extra gains that begin at 204.60.

While breaking the extra support at 201.70 might force it to delay the bullish attack and provide mixed trading, and there is chance for retesting 200.45 level before reaching any new positive station.

The expected trading range for today is between 201.75 and 203.95

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair didn’t move anything since yesterday, forming sideways trading by its stability near 202.30, affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, while its positive stability above the initial main support at 200.45 and attempt to form extra support at 201.70 level, these factors makes us keep the bullish suggestion, which might target 203.95 level and surpassing it will make the price record extra gains that begin at 204.60.

While breaking the extra support at 201.70 might force it to delay the bullish attack and provide mixed trading, and there is chance for retesting 200.45 level before reaching any new positive station.

The expected trading range for today is between 201.75 and 203.95

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Vulnerable as BoE Cut Bets Build

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate weakened on Monday amid mixed central bank rhetoric, despite a broadly upbeat tone across global markets.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3121, down roughly 0.2% from Monday’s opening levels.

The Pound (GBP) struggled to find direction through the session, as fresh concerns over potential Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cuts continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Reports from Barclays and Goldman Sachs on Friday suggested that the odds of a rate reduction at this week’s BoE meeting had increased, prompting traders to pare back Sterling exposure ahead of Thursday’s decision.

As one analyst noted, “Markets have begun to price in a clear shift in BoE policy direction — from tightening to easing — and that’s keeping Sterling on the defensive for now.”

The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, held firm against most major counterparts, supported by lingering hawkish undertones from last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Although the Fed delivered a 25 basis-point rate cut, Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious tone, pushing back against expectations of an imminent follow-up move in December.

This stance helped to underpin the Greenback through Monday’s session, particularly as investors awaited fresh US data for direction.

Later in the day, the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI was expected to offer further insight into the health of the US economy. A stronger print could reinforce the Dollar’s resilience, extending its early-week gains.

GBP/USD Forecast: Market Sentiment in Focus

Looking ahead to Tuesday, the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is likely to take its cues from overall market sentiment, with little in the way of key economic releases from either side of the Atlantic.

With the UK data calendar quiet, Sterling is expected to remain vulnerable to ongoing speculation surrounding the BoE’s next policy move. Traders are likely to stay cautious ahead of Thursday’s crucial rate decision, limiting the Pound’s recovery potential.

Meanwhile, in the US, the ongoing government shutdown means data visibility remains limited, leaving risk appetite as the primary driver of market direction.

If investors turn more cautious, the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal could see it extend its recent strength, keeping GBP/USD under pressure as the week unfolds.

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– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Price Forecast: EUR/USD Testing Key 1.15 Area

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has failed to gain any traction in global markets and has retreated to 3-month lows just above the 1.1500 level before stabilising.

UoB sees scope for a limited correction; “While further EUR weakness is not ruled out, positive divergence is forming on momentum indicators and any decline is unlikely to threaten 1.1490 today.”

According to ING; “We suspect that 1.1500 could prove the bottom of the EUR/USD range this week, though that will require some softer US jobs data to provide some breathing space.”

On a longer-term view it added; “Market consensus is for 1.18 by year-end. We think EUR/USD could rally slightly more than that on a dovish Fed – but those views are under pressure.”

ING pointed to money-market developments as an important element for dollar strength. The Treasury is rebuilding cash reserves which is putting upward pressure on rates.

The bank added; “Tight money markets normally keep the dollar supported, and we’ll be watching to see whether this difficulty in accessing dollar funding extends internationally. This would be quite EUR/USD negative if seen, but there are no signs of that yet.”

Markets also remain less confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the December meeting with traders pricing in just below a 70% chance of a further cut.

The US government shutdown will also be increasingly important for markets as the economic impact will continue to build.

The Fed will be concerned over a negative impact on the economy, but will also be aware over the high degree of uncertainty.

MUFG commented; “The longer that US government shutdown goes on the bigger the negative impact on the US economy in the near-term but Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed would be more inclined to leaves rates on hold in December if they still lack clarity on the performance of the US economy.”

There are still important underlying concerns surrounding potential changes at the Fed, especially with a new chair coming next year.

Over the weekend Treasury Secretary Bessent criticised the central bank stating that their record on inflation forecasting had been extremely poor.

He added; “we’re going to find a leader who is going to revamp the entire institution in terms of process and inner workings”.

MUFG noted the risks; “The comments highlight that potential changes to the Fed under the next Chair remain a downside risk for the US dollar next year even if they skip cutting rates in December.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: USD Firm, GBP Awaits BoE Clarity

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) remains pinned near six-month lows, trading around 1.3130 as investors continue to favour the dollar amid fading expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Close to 6-Month Lows

The Pound-to-Dollar rate dipped further to 6-month lows at the 1.3100 level on Friday before a slight recovery to 1.3130 on Monday.

The dollar has maintained a strong tone in global markets with further doubts over another rate cut in the December meeting while US money-market conditions remain tight.

For the Pound to secure a sustained rebound, the first task for GBP/USD will be to regain 1.3140 on a sustained basis.

A slide below 1.3100 would potentially lead to a slide to 1.30.

According to UoB; “The rebound from deeply oversold conditions suggests that, instead of continuing to decline, GBP is more likely to consolidate today, probably between 1.3110 and 1.3170.”

Over the past few days, three regional Fed Presidents have stated that they preferred to leave rates on hold at the late-October meeting.

MUFG commented; “The change in rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell was likely intended to appease more hawkish voices at the Fed while they await more clarity from economic data releases when the US government shutdown finally ends.

With the on-going government shutdown still disrupting official data releases, the private surveys on economic activity and the labour market will be watched very closely this week.

National Australia Bank senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril commented; “The lack of information is playing to sort of that calmness in markets. And for now, I suppose what could break that while the shutdown is still ongoing, (is) a big downward surprise or even upward surprise in terms of surveys or private data releases.”

He added; “But otherwise, at the moment, even those private data releases are not screaming or telling us that the Fed should be moving in a hurry.”

Domestically, the UK PMI manufacturing index was revised marginally higher to 49.7 from the flash reading of 49.6 and confirmed at a 12-month high.

Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “The October PMI survey shows UK manufacturing production rising for the first time in a year, which is a positive in itself. However, there are real concerns that the bounce could prove short-lived.”

Markets will continue to focus on this Thursday’s Bank of England policy decision with the actual decision and policy guidance both crucial. Rate-cut speculation will make it more difficult for the Pound to recover ground.

According to ING; “The Bank looks likely to keep rates on hold on 6 November, despite better inflation and wage news. The committee is deeply divided, and we don’t expect clear signals on the Bank’s next steps. But assuming the Autumn Budget goes as expected, a December rate cut now looks more likely than not.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts