– Written by


James Fuller

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Hawkish Fed Expectations Keep Pressure on GBP

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate experienced some volatile trading on Thursday, with sharp swings in both directions as investors reacted to a fresh batch of US economic data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3181, little changed from the levels seen at the start of the session.

The US Dollar (USD) came under brief pressure early on Thursday before rebounding after the publication of stronger-than-expected US growth figures.

Updated data for the first quarter showed the US economy expanded at an annualised pace of 2.1%, revised up from an earlier estimate of 1.6%. The improvement reflected robust consumer demand alongside solid business investment.

Further support for the ‘Greenback’ came from inflation data, with the latest core PCE reading suggesting underlying price pressures remain elevated.

Taken together, the figures reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a restrictive policy stance, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of an interest rate increase before the end of the summer.

The Pound (GBP) traded without clear direction on Thursday as investors continued to assess the implications of the anticipated handover of power from Keir Starmer to Andy Burnham.

While financial markets have remained relatively calm so far, traders are still waiting for more detail on Burnham’s economic priorities and the team he intends to install once he takes office.

Particular focus remains on the Treasury, with speculation mounting that Chancellor Rachel Reeves could be replaced as part of a broader reshuffle of senior government positions.

Efforts by Burnham and his allies to reassure investors over their commitment to responsible fiscal management have helped ease concerns in the bond market. UK gilt yields have consequently slipped to their lowest levels since April, providing some support for Sterling, although lingering political uncertainty continues to cap upside potential.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Market Risk Appetite in the Spotlight

Looking ahead to Friday, with little in the way of major economic releases scheduled on either side of the Atlantic, broader market sentiment could play a leading role in driving the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.

Should concerns surrounding technology shares and artificial intelligence-related valuations continue to weigh on stock markets, demand for safe-haven assets such as the US Dollar may remain elevated.

At the same time, Sterling could struggle to establish a clear trend as investors await greater clarity on the UK’s evolving political landscape and future fiscal plans.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent. Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, …

The Euro remains under pressure after sliding to its lowest level this month, with UBS expecting the US Dollar to stay supported through the third quarter as markets adjust to a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) traded near 1.1368 on Wednesday, down more than 2.5% in June after starting the month above 1.1649. The pair has now fallen for three consecutive months from January’s 2026 peak above 1.20.

UBS believes the US Dollar’s reaction to higher oil prices has lagged, but expects that to change as markets increasingly focus on Federal Reserve policy.

“Despite the USD-positive terms-of-trade shock linked to energy prices… the greenback should fare better.”

The bank expects the Dollar to “grind higher” during the third quarter, arguing that a reversal in overseas rate expectations should favour the US currency.

UBS also believes new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s communication style could support the Dollar by creating greater policy uncertainty.

“Playing for a more volatile rates and FX market in the Warsh era is better value at longer maturities.”

Reflecting its stronger Dollar view, UBS forecasts EUR/USD at 1.14 by the end of the third quarter, falling to 1.13 by year-end and 1.12 during the first half of 2027.

The bank believes resilient US growth, continued AI-led investment and relatively high US interest rates should continue supporting the Dollar, leaving the Euro under pressure in the months ahead.

Platinum price has maintained its bearish path after breaking below the support level at $1,605.00, currently fluctuating near the first additional target at $1,565.00.

With continued negative momentum and the formation of the $1,660.00 level as an additional resistance barrier, the price is expected to form new bearish waves, targeting $1,490.00, followed by the next support level at $1,440.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1,490.00 and $1,630.00.

Trend forecast: Bearish

The Euro has been choppy against the British Pound on Tuesday, as we are sitting just above a massive support region.

EUR/GBP

The Euro has been very noisy against the British pound during the trading session on Tuesday, as we are now facing a pretty significant support level in the form of 0.86.

The 0.86 level has been important for several months now, and the reaction that we had during the trading session suggests that perhaps we are going to continue to see a lot of noisy action, perhaps even a bit of a significant bounce from here.

I do believe that it is probably only a matter of time before we re-enter the previous consolidation range, opening up the possibility of a move toward the 200-day EMA. With that, I like the idea of buying in this general vicinity, but if we were to break down below the crucial 0.86 level, then you’d have to think that maybe we are in some trouble as far as the Euro is concerned.

Analyzing Potential Support and Economic Outlooks

Over the longer term, I believe this is a market that will do everything it can to try to stay within the range between 0.86 on the bottom and 0.87 on the top. The market is currently arguing over the idea of whether or not the British pound will continue to see overall strength or if we have a scenario where the Euro gets a bit of a reprieve.

Ultimately, this EUR/GBP market remains very noisy, but that is typical for this currency pair. After all, they tend to have a lot of the same economic outlook despite the fact that the Bank of England is quite a bit more hawkish than the ECB at the moment.

The ECB just raised rates, but they made it pretty clear that they thought the economy was sluggish and that the interest rate hike was more or less due to inflation. Range-bound traders will continue to love this pair, and that is its typical behavior anyway, so that doesn’t surprise me in the least. I’m cautiously optimistic.

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Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

Platinum price has maintained its bearish path after breaking below the support level at $1,605.00, currently fluctuating near the first additional target at $1,565.00.

With continued negative momentum and the formation of the $1,660.00 level as an additional resistance barrier, the price is expected to form new bearish waves, targeting $1,490.00, followed by the next support level at $1,440.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1,490.00 and $1,630.00.

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Outlook: US Dollar Strengthens on Higher-for-Longer Rate Expectations

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate remained under pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar continuing to outperform its major counterparts.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3155, down around 0.4% compared with the start of the day’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) continued to strengthen on Wednesday, extending a rally that has seen the currency climb to its strongest levels in several months against a basket of peers.

Momentum behind the ‘Greenback’ has continued to build since last week’s Federal Reserve policy announcement.

Although policymakers opted to leave interest rates unchanged, the accompanying guidance struck a distinctly hawkish tone. Fed officials signalled they remain prepared to tighten monetary policy further should inflationary pressures persist.

As a result, investors have increased their expectations for another rate rise before the end of the summer.

The shift in interest rate expectations has also unsettled equity markets. Technology stocks have come under particular pressure amid renewed concerns that valuations linked to artificial intelligence may have become overstretched, prompting investors to seek the relative safety of the US Dollar.

The Pound (GBP) struggled to attract support on Wednesday as political uncertainty in the UK continued to linger.

While markets have largely absorbed Keir Starmer’s departure and the expectation that Andy Burnham will become the next Prime Minister, attention is increasingly turning towards the composition of Burnham’s future government.

Investors are especially focused on who will be appointed Chancellor, with concerns that his pick could reignite volatility in the UK bond market.

At the same time, Sterling traders were reluctant to take aggressive positions ahead of a series of speeches from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers. Diverging views among members of the Monetary Policy Committee continue to cloud the outlook for UK interest rates, limiting confidence in the Pound.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Will US Inflation Data Drive the Next Move?

Looking ahead, the key event for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will be the release of the latest US core PCE inflation figures.

As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, a stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations for additional policy tightening and provide further support to the US Dollar.

However, any upside in USD could be tempered if revised first-quarter US GDP figures point to a weaker growth backdrop than previously estimated.

For Sterling, political developments are likely to remain the primary focus, with investors continuing to monitor speculation surrounding Burnham’s cabinet appointments and their potential implications for fiscal policy.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

The New Zealand dollar has completely fallen apart, and at this point in time, it looks like we are heading towards the 0.56 level. The New Zealand dollar, of course, is going to continue to be weaker than the Aussie dollar as the New Zealand dollar is backed by a much more dovish central bank than Australia. They both tend to move in the same direction, but at this point in time, as long as there is US dollar strength, there will be problems with the kiwi dollar. That being said, the 0.56 level is an area that was a major swing low, so we may be getting pretty close to the end here.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The EURJPY pair announced its surrender to the bearish trend dominance by reaching below the sideways trend’s support at 214.20 level, forming some bearish waves and reaching 183.50 level.

The continuation of providing negative momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of resuming the negative attempts, to expect targeting 182.85 level, reaching the next support at 182.30, while the attempt of regaining the bullish trend requires forming a strong bullish rally, to settle above 185.50 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 182.85 and 184.20

Trend forecast: Bearish