Created on October 31, 2025

• The US dollar has been bullish during the trading session on Thursday, and that won’t be any different against the Japanese yen as it is against other currencies.
• The 153 yen level is a significantly resistant area that is now in the rearview mirror of the US dollar, and it looks like we could continue to go much higher.

Keep in mind that recently we have seen a lot of momentum in the US dollar against multiple currencies, but the Japanese yen is a little bit special in the sense that we have recently had an election in Japan. The Japanese election ushers in a new government of doves, and it is thought that the Bank of Japan will continue to keep a very loose monetary policy, so it does make a certain amount of sense that the Japanese yen gets hammered by other currencies.

FOMC Surprised a Bit

Contrast that with the FOMC meeting that we had on Wednesday, where Jerome Powell stated in the press conference that a December rate cut wasn’t necessarily a given. This has driven the US dollar higher against most things, including the Japanese yen, so it all lines up as a central bank outlook differential. Furthermore, we have an interest rate differential between the two currencies because, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve did in fact cut, the reality is that the bond market sat still.

Therefore, the interest rate differentials are even ignoring the Fed at this point. All things being equal, this is a reasonably sized candlestick. It’s explosive, it’s strong, but at the same time, it’s reasonable. It’s not out of control and impulsive. And I think this shows that short-term pullbacks are more likely than not will be bought into in this pair, and I believe that a certain amount of market memory comes into the picture at the 153 yen level as potential support.

In fact, I don’t even have a scenario at this point where I’m willing to short this pair. I think we have so much more upside. The 155 yen level could be targeted pretty quickly. And then after that, you could be looking at a move to 158 yen.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Natural gas price surrendered to stochastic negativity, threatening the stability of the extra support at $3.830, suffering intraday losses by hitting $3.770 level, then attempts to settle above this support to confirm the dominance of the previously suggested bullish bias.

We recommend waiting for providing new bullish close for the upcoming four hours’ time frame above the current support, which reinforces the chances of forming several bullish waves, to target $4.050 level, reaching the barrier near $4.210, while facing new bearish pressures will confirm activating the bearish corrective track, which forces it to suffer more losses by targeting $3.690 and $3.550 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.800 and $4.050

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on October 30, 2025

• The euro extended gains against the British pound on Wednesday ahead of the ECB’s rate decision.
• After breaking above key resistance at 0.8750, the pair targets 0.89, reflecting ongoing pound weakness rather than euro strength.

The euro continued to rally against the British pound during the trading session on Wednesday as markets awaited the European Central Bank interest rate decision on Thursday. It is worth noting that the pair broke above a major resistance barrier at 0.8750, a region that had acted as a ceiling in this market for a long time. Having previously consolidated within a 150-pip range, the so-called measured move suggests a potential advance toward the 0.89 level, an area that makes sense historically.

Over the longer term, the 0.89 level has proven significant on multiple occasions, creating a favorable technical setup. That said, the ECB decision could introduce volatility into the market, though any such movement should be short-lived unless the central bank delivers a genuine surprise. What stands out is that the British pound itself has been relatively weak in recent weeks, and this pair’s movement may reflect sterling’s softness more than any particular demand for the euro.

A Pullback Offer Value in this Pair

A pullback could present a buying opportunity, with 0.8750 expected to serve as a short-term floor. A dip toward that level would likely offer an attractive entry, though the market could simply continue higher. There appears to be little reason to short this pair unless the ECB delivers an unexpected shock, which seems unlikely at present. The euro has been in an uptrend since at least June, and even when viewed from a broader perspective—with some sharp corrections along the way—the prevailing trend remains higher. Accordingly, the 0.89 level appears to be a realistic target for the near term.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Markets are nervous of UK fiscal woes: While the public finances of many developed nations are currently somewhat dubious at best, this is particularly true for the United Kingdom, with a multibillion-pound hole that needs to be addressed by the upcoming budget in November.

While developments concerning the budget continue to do the media rounds, which will inevitably only increase as November 26th approaches, Rachel Reeves is stuck between a rock and a hard place, between honoring campaign pledges not to raise taxes on working people and VAT while simultaneously needing to find an estimated £30bn to balance spending with tax income.

To make matters worse, and coming at an inopportune time for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, an assessment to be released on Friday by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to substantially downgrade UK productivity forecasts, resulting in a further estimate of £20 billion in shortfall.

Not to mention: government borrowing also exceeded estimates in the first half of 2025 by £7.2bn as per last week’s OBR commentary.

Tying this back to GBP/USD, however, is remarkably simple: the fiscal health of the UK economy appears to be worsening, and investors are collectively demanding a higher level of risk premium to hold sterling-denominated assets.

This fundamental downgrade in sterling’s rating when compared to other stores of wealth is what has led, in no small part, to recent GBP/USD downside.

The GBPJPY pair approached the target near 200.45 in yesterday’s trading, which forms an important support level to push it to form bullish rebound by hitting 202.10 level, to indicate regaining the bullish trend.

The price needs a new bullish momentum that allows it to provide new bullish close above 201.70 level, reinforcing the chances of targeting positive stations that are located near 202.55 and 203.25, while declining and holding below 200.45 will force it to suffer extra losses, to expect targeting 199.20 level initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 200.80 and 202.55

Trend forecast: Bullish by the stability of 200.45

The GBPJPY pair approached the target near 200.45 in yesterday’s trading, which forms an important support level to push it to form bullish rebound by hitting 202.10 level, to indicate regaining the bullish trend.

The price needs a new bullish momentum that allows it to provide new bullish close above 201.70 level, reinforcing the chances of targeting positive stations that are located near 202.55 and 203.25, while declining and holding below 200.45 will force it to suffer extra losses, to expect targeting 199.20 level initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 200.80 and 202.55

Trend forecast: Bullish by the stability of 200.45

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate extended losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut, while UK fiscal concerns continued to weigh on Sterling sentiment.

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) remained under pressure on Wednesday, extending its recent slide as concerns mounted ahead of next month’s Autumn Budget.

Investors continued to digest reports suggesting the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is preparing a downgrade to the UK’s productivity outlook, potentially opening up a £20 billion fiscal shortfall.

Such a revision is expected to force Chancellor Rachel Reeves into announcing a mix of tax hikes and spending restraint, fuelling fears that tighter fiscal policy could undermine the fragile UK recovery.

While Reeves has argued the government can balance fiscal discipline with growth, markets remain sceptical — keeping Sterling on the defensive.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) initially traded mixed before stabilising after the Federal Reserve announced a widely expected 25bps rate cut, lowering the fed funds range to 3.75–4.00%.

Chair Jerome Powell struck a balanced tone, noting that while inflation progress allows some room to ease, further rate reductions are “far from assured.”

The comments dampened expectations of aggressive near-term cuts, offering modest support to the Greenback even as Treasury yields edged lower.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Market Focus on Fed Outlook and UK Fiscal Risks

Looking ahead, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate will likely hinge on post-Fed market reaction and evolving sentiment around the UK budget.

If investors continue to interpret Powell’s remarks as cautious rather than dovish, the Dollar could retain its recent gains.

However, any follow-through risk rally or weaker US data could prompt renewed Dollar selling later in the week.

For the Pound, the domestic backdrop remains clouded by uncertainty over fiscal tightening. Without fresh data to shift attention, Sterling may struggle to find a floor until clearer signals emerge from the Treasury or OBR.

GBP/USD Forecast: Sterling Slides Toward 1.3240 as Fiscal Gap, BoE Cut Odds, and Fed Decision Pressure Pound

GBP/USD Under Renewed Pressure as Fiscal Concerns Deepen and Dollar Strengthens

The British Pound to U.S. Dollar (GBP/USD) remains under intense selling pressure, trading near 1.3280 after briefly touching 1.3247, marking its weakest level since August. The pair has fallen more than 3.4% from September’s peak at 1.3725, extending a two-week decline as investors reassess the UK’s fragile fiscal position and upcoming monetary decisions on both sides of the Atlantic. Market sentiment toward Sterling has deteriorated sharply following the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) warning of a £20 billion shortfall in government finances, a gap that could widen to £35 billion under current productivity and growth assumptions.

The OBR’s findings fuel speculation that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may introduce tax hikes in the November Budget to stabilize public accounts. Such a move could tighten household spending and consumer demand, threatening the UK’s already sluggish recovery. The UK economy remains structurally weak — GDP growth is stalling near 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, productivity continues to lag, and inflation, though easing, underscores a fragile backdrop. The British Retail Consortium’s data revealed softer food prices and inflation slowing to 1.8%, giving markets confidence that the Bank of England (BoE) could pivot toward easing sooner than expected. Traders now assign a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, a dramatic shift from earlier expectations of a prolonged pause.

Dollar Firm Ahead of Fed Rate Cut and Powell’s Guidance

On the U.S. side, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce its second 25-bps rate cut of 2025, lowering the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. However, the market’s focus is firmly on Chair Jerome Powell’s tone regarding future policy. A dovish statement signaling more cuts before year-end could provide some relief for the Pound, while a measured or hawkish stance could drive further downside toward 1.3140 or lower. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades steady near 98.70, supported by safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty and the Trump administration’s ongoing Asia visit, which produced a U.S.–Japan minerals alliance agreement aimed at securing rare earth supply chains.

The Fed’s decision comes as U.S. macro data weakens: Conference Board consumer confidence dropped to 94.1, ADP private payrolls fell by 36,000, and housing data showed prices slowing for the seventh consecutive month. Despite these signals, the Dollar remains resilient, reflecting investors’ preference for liquidity and yield amid heightened volatility in Europe and Asia.

Fiscal Anxiety and Volatility Build Ahead of Reeves’s Budget

The upcoming UK Autumn Budget has become a defining risk event for Sterling. With the implied volatility on GBP/USD options rising to a three-month high, traders are increasingly positioning for sharper moves as fiscal risk looms. If Reeves confirms new spending commitments without clear funding clarity, markets could interpret the plan as fiscally expansionary, reviving concerns similar to the 2022 mini-budget crisis that triggered a sharp Sterling collapse.

Investors are also monitoring BoE communication, with Governor Andrew Bailey expected to emphasize data dependency. Market pricing now implies 50 bps of total easing by mid-2026, though fiscal stress may accelerate that timeline. For Sterling, this combination of monetary and fiscal fragility leaves little room for optimism in the near term, especially as the Dollar continues to absorb risk-averse inflows.

Technical Breakdown: Double-Top at 1.3725, Neckline Targets 1.3140

From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD continues to trace a double-top pattern with the neckline around 1.3140, a level that has now become a key inflection point. The pair trades below the Supertrend indicator, confirming a sustained bearish bias. Short-term resistance is observed at 1.3340, 1.3400, and 1.3520, while support levels cluster around 1.3240, 1.3180, and 1.3140. A decisive close below 1.3140 could extend losses toward 1.3000, while only a breakout above 1.3400 would neutralize downside momentum.

Momentum indicators align with this bearish structure: the RSI remains in the mid-40s, showing no bullish divergence, while the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) remains in negative territory. Volume data from interbank flows show renewed selling each time GBP/USD attempts to recover above 1.3340, confirming strong resistance from institutional sellers.

Global Risk Environment: Gold Rally and Yen Strength Confirm Flight to Safety

The broader macro environment adds further weight to Sterling’s decline. The rally in Gold (XAU/USD) back above $4,000 per ounce and the surge in Japanese Yen (JPY) — with GBP/JPY nearing 201.00 — signal a pronounced flight-to-safety sentiment across global markets. Risk assets, including equities and emerging-market currencies, remain under pressure ahead of the Fed’s decision and potential follow-through from Trump’s trade policies.

This shift toward defensive positioning highlights the challenge for Sterling: investors are not only cautious about domestic fiscal policy but are also shifting capital toward assets perceived as safe havens. That dynamic leaves GBP/USD vulnerable to deeper retracements unless the Fed strikes an unexpectedly dovish tone or the UK Budget surprises positively.

Market Positioning and Volatility Signals Further Downside

Positioning data indicates that institutional traders remain net short Sterling. CFTC futures show a steady increase in GBP short positions over the past two weeks, while options market skew favors downside protection, with higher demand for puts around the 1.3150–1.3200 range. The increase in one-week implied volatility — now at 7.2%, the highest since August — suggests markets anticipate a 100–120 pip swing following the Fed statement.

Short-term sentiment remains bearish, with hedge funds and asset managers reducing long exposure in anticipation of further policy divergence. Traders see limited upside unless Powell explicitly commits to further easing or Reeves delivers a credible fiscal plan. Until then, the pair is likely to remain range-bound between 1.3140 and 1.3400, with rallies being sold aggressively.

TradingNews.com Verdict: SELL (Bearish Bias While Below 1.3400)

The data-driven narrative leaves GBP/USD in a clearly bearish setup. Fiscal fragility, widening budget uncertainty, soft inflation, and a market priced for BoE cuts all weigh against Sterling. Unless the Fed pivots sharply dovish or UK policymakers deliver fiscal clarity, the path of least resistance remains lower.

Verdict: SELL — bearish bias maintained while GBP/USD trades below 1.3400; next targets 1.3180 and 1.3140, with potential extension to 1.3000 if Budget risks escalate.

That’s TradingNEWS

Created on October 29, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Remains bearish.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1610 – 1.1540 – 1.1470.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1685 – 1.1750 – 1.1830.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1560 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss of 1.1480.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1740 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss of 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

As expected, the EUR/USD price remained within narrow ranges at the beginning of this week’s trading, pending market and investor reaction to the policy announcements of both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. On trusted trading platforms, the EUR/USD price is stabilizing around 1.1650 at the time of writing.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is resisting the strength of the US dollar better than most currencies, which is expected to allow it to trade strongly this week. The EUR/USD traded slightly higher against the US dollar last week, and this important week’s trading is witnessing a new high, surpassing the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1630.

This rise suggests that the near-term momentum has shifted to the upside, and there is potential for steady movement through the mid-to-late 1.16 range. Although the Euro is rising slowly, it is not decisively trending upward. It is worth noting that the EUR/USD pair remains trading within a multi-month consolidation range. The lower boundary of this range extends to 1.1550 (we disregard the July drop to 1.14 as it was quickly corrected), while the upper boundary is at 1.1750, with temporary spikes to 1.18 and above proving short-lived.

Therefore, we are likely to see a rally within this mentioned range, which means that both strength and weakness will be limited.

Amid the stability of the euro against the US dollar, much of course depends on the actions of the US Federal Reserve in the middle of this week. We know that it will cut US interest rates by 25 basis points, but we do not know its opinion on any further rate cuts later in the year. The general rule of thumb for trading is that any encouragement for further cuts will negatively impact the dollar and allow the EUR/USD pair to break the 1.17 resistance level. Overall, Recent US survey data confirms that the employment situation is slowly deteriorating, and the Federal Reserve will not want to risk exacerbating this situation by keeping US interest rates tight for an extended period. This will ensure that the possibility of further cuts remains.

Trading Tips:

As we advise, the EUR/USD will remain range-bound until the markets react to the US Federal Reserve’s announcement this week and then the outcome of the US/China trade dispute.

The Future of Central Bank Policies

However, if the U.S. Central Bank signals caution about another cut in 2025, it will have a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve is currently short on official economic data due to the government shutdown and will not want to signal any major policy change if it feels it is navigating blindly. Given this, we believe we will receive very restrictive guidance from the Federal Reserve, as it does its best to maintain steadiness at the helm until official data begins to flow again.

Obvioulsy, this means that any subsequent reactions in exchange rates after the Fed’s decision will eventually fade. Also, we will end the week in a relatively stable position—meaning the EUR/USD is moving upward within its multi-week range.

On another influential front for currency exchange rates, we await the European Central Bank’s decision next Thursday, where no change in interest rates is expected. Consequently, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and continued rate stability by the ECB would allow interest rates in the U.S. and the Eurozone to converge further, which is currently supportive of Euro trading.

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